Monday, November 19, 2007

No, you take it...No, no, I insist

Not everyone can be perfect. We've seen that again and again in college football this year, and the imperfection isn't confined to the field. So-called experts make errors in judgment all the time, but how many times do you see them call themselves out in next week's column? I'll tell you how often: Never. To be fair, you will occasionally see guys like Dr Z and Pat Forde go back at the end of the season and take a look at their early-season mistakes, but it is pretty rare to see someone say "Man, what was I thinking last week? I can't believe I thought Ohio State and Boston College were the two best teams in college football!"

In light of this, I'd like to take this opportunity to call myself out on a couple of bonehead comments.

1.) "Nail-biter loss to LSU doesn't diminish the fact that Alabama has re-established itself as [a]contender." (11/5/07)
Perhaps my only mistake was not clarifying that I meant Alabama was a contender to be the first SEC team to lose to a Sun Belt team this year. Consecutive losses to Mississippi State and Louisiana-Monroe have put Alabama in jeopardy of not even making a bowl game.

2.) Mario Manningham as a Heisman candidate (11/13/07)
Manningham looked lost against Ohio State, as he was unable to hold onto the ball all day. I counted at least three drops. I'm not talking 'leaping into the air and ball bounces of fingertips' drops - I'm talking 'hit-me-in-the-numbers' drops. When he did manage to hold onto the ball, he only racked up a total of 34 yards. Maybe next year...

As far as the BCS Championship is concerned, we are getting dangerously close to having a game that no one will care about. With Oklahoma and Oregon going down, more and more teams will be able to make their case for a spot in the Championship. It isn't unreasonable to imagine LSU falling to Arkansas or Tennessee/Georgia. What if the Kansas/Missouri winner turns around and loses to Oklahoma?

I harped on this last week, but we really would have a huge mess if a couple more teams fall. A West Virginia-Ohio State matchup is a very real possibility, and a potentially disastrous one at that. West Virginia and Ohio State are (or will be) the respective champions of the Big East and Big Ten, which this year are widely rated as the fifth and sixth best conferences in the country, out of the six BCS conferences. Do we really want to reward these teams that are clearly not the best in the country with the chance to compete for the title, just because they haven't had to play anyone?

Both Ohio State and West Virgina have beaten only one team ranked in the Sagarin top 25: Ohio State over Michigan (#25) and West Virginia over Cincinnati (#14). Meanwhile, Georgia has wins over three top 20 teams (Florida, Kentucky, Auburn) but has almost no chance to advance to the title game due to their two SEC losses. Maybe I'm getting worked up for nothing, but I think it would be a shame to see Ohio State in the title game just because the rest of the field is busy knocking themselves off in conference championship games and difficult conference matchups.

And on to this week's rankings...

1.) LSU (10-1)
Key Wins: Virginia Tech, Florida, Auburn
Loss(es): Kentucky
Talk of Les Miles bolting for Michigan may prove to be a distraction for the top ranked Tigers. LSU certainly will have its hands full with Darren McFadden this weekend, so they will have to focus to avoid a letdown.
2.) Missouri (10-1)
Key Wins: Illinois, Texas Tech
Loss(es): Oklahoma
I think Missouri is a pretty tenuous number two right now. Missouri hasn't really been tested, outside of its loss to Oklahoma. I believe they will knock off Kansas, but I'm not sure they can win a re-match with Oklahoma.
3.) WVU (9-1)
Key Wins: Rutgers, Cincinnati
Loss(es): South Florida
West Virginia continues to take care of business, as its competitors are falling over themselves trying to get out of the title race. A couple more breaks and the Mountaineers might find themselves with a new set of flight plans.
4.) Kansas (11-0)
Key Wins: None
Loss(es): None
Kansas has moved all the way up to number two in the BCS standings, which as history has shown this season is not the ideal place to be. A relatively untested Kansas team will face a stiff challenge with Missouri this weekend.
5.) Georgia (9-2)
Key Wins: Florida, Auburn, Kentucky
Loss(es): South Carolina, Tennessee
Georgia held on to beat Kentucky, which keeps the Dawgs' SEC title hopes alive for one more week. Now Georgia must turn around and root for the Wildcats to upset Tennessee.
6.) Florida (8-3)
Key Wins: Tennessee, Kentucky
Loss(es): Auburn, LSU, Georgia
Florida has regrouped following the disappointing loss to Georgia. With Tim Tebow's shoulder apparently fully healed, the Gators have been unstoppable, scoring 49 or more points in the last three games.
7.) Ohio State (11-1)
Key Wins: Penn State, Wisconsin, Michigan
Loss(es): Illinois
Ohio State scored a sloppy win over archrival Michigan, claiming the Big Ten title in the process. The defeat also signaled the end of an era for Michigan and Lloyd Carr.
8.) Oklahoma (9-2)
Key Wins: Texas, Missouri
Loss(es): Colorado, Texas Tech
Oklahoma suffered a shocking loss to Texas Tech that was precipitated by the loss of star freshman quarterback Sam Bradford. If Bradford is not able to play in this week's game, Oklahoma could face the daunting prospect of not even making the Big 12 championship game.
9.) Virginia Tech (9-2)
Key Wins: Clemson, Florida State
Loss(es): LSU, Boston College
Virginia Tech stomped all over Miami last week and now faces in-state rival Virginia for the right to play Boston College for the ACC Championship. I give Virginia Tech the edge in both of those potential matchups.
10.) Oregon (8-2)
Key Wins: Michigan, USC, Arizona State
Loss(es): Cal, Arizona
Like Oklahoma, Oregon's title hopes have been dashed with the loss of their starting quarterback. With two relatively tough Pac-10 games coming up (UCLA, Oregon St) Oregon will be lucky to stay this high in the rankings.
11.) ASU (9-1)
Key Wins: Oregon St, Cal, UCLA
Loss(es): Oregon
Arizona State hosts USC in what should decide the Pac-10's Rose Bowl participant. Arizona State will have had an extra week to prepare for this game.
12.) USC (8-2)
Key Wins: Arizona, Oregon St, Cal
Loss(es): Stanford, Oregon
Like Arizona State, USC has also had an extra week to get ready for this week's game. A USC win would throw the Pac-10 into a three-way tie.
13.) Texas (9-2)
Key Wins: Texas Tech
Loss(es): Kansas State, Oklahoma
Left for dead after two straight Big 12 losses to open the season, Texas amazingly could sneak into the Big 12 Championship with an Oklahoma loss. A loss by both Oklahoma and Texas could potentially open the door for Oklahoma State, but I don't know all the tie-breakers...
14.) Tennessee (8-3)
Key Wins: Georgia, South Carolina, Arkansas
Loss(es): Cal, Florida, Alabama
Tennessee held on for dear life against Vanderbilt, with a last-second missed field goal ensuring a Tennessee victory. The Vol Nation is hoping for a dominant performance against Kentucky that will spill over into the SEC Championship.
15.) Illinois (9-3)
Key Wins: Penn State, Wisconsin, Ohio State
Loss(es): Missouri, Iowa, Michigan
Illinois finished its impressive season with a dominant win over Northwestern and now must simply wait to find its bowl destination. A couple of breaks could afford the Illini a BCS at-large bid.
16.) Boston College (9-2)
Key Wins: Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Clemson
Loss(es): Florida State, Maryland
Led by another Matt Ryan comeback, Boston College broke the hearts of Clemson fans across the nation. The ACC Championship is now within reach.
17.) Boise State (10-1)
Key Wins: None
Loss(es): Washington
The stage is set for this Friday's showdown with Hawaii. The winner will likely end up in a BCS bowl.
18.) Clemson (8-3)
Key Wins: Florida State, Wake Forest
Loss(es): Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, BC
More of the same for Clemson as another season ends in disappointment. Clemson dropped a sure touchdown in the closing seconds and once again fails to finish a promising season on a high note. Pounding rival South Carolina will ease the sting, but once again the critics will be calling for Tommy Bowden's job.
19.) Virginia (9-2)
Key Wins: UConn, Wake Forest
Loss(es): Wyoming, NC State
Not many people expected Virginia to be in this position, but a win over Virginia Tech would give Virginia a spot in the ACC title game. I think the Cavaliers have used up all their good luck for the year and will fall just short.
20.) Hawaii (10-0)
Key Wins: None
Loss(es): None
As mentioned before, Hawaii hosts Boise State for all the marbles - WAC conference title, a possible BCS berth, and most of all, some needed respect.
21.) Cincinnati (8-3)
Key Wins: Oregon St, South Florida, UConn
Loss(es): Louisville, Pitt, West Virginia
Cincinnati played admirably but their fourth quarter rally fell just short at West Virginia. Still, this team has exceeded all expectations and deserves to be applauded.
22.) Auburn (7-4)
Key Wins: Florida, Arkansas
Loss(es): South Florida, Miss St, LSU, Georgia
With both Alabama and Auburn not meeting expectations this year, the Iron Bowl will determine bragging rights for the state of Alabama for the next year to come.
23.) Connecticut (9-2)
Key Wins: South Florida, Rutgers
Loss(es): Virginia, Cincinnati
With a win over West Virginia, Connecticut would claim the Big East title and a spot in a BCS bowl. I don't see it happening, but impressive nonetheless that UConn is even in this position.
24.) South Florida (8-3)
Key Wins: Auburn, West Virginia
Loss(es): Rutgers, Connecticut, Cincinnati
South Florida has bounced back with two straight 40+ point performances after suffering a three game slide, and re-enters the top 25.
25.) Kentucky (7-4)
Key Wins: Arkansas, LSU
Loss(es): South Carolina, Florida, Mississippi State, Georgia
Kentucky couldn't quite get the job done against Georgia, but they have one more chance to post another credible victory when they host Tennessee this weekend. With Andre Woodson at the helm, this Kentucky team is a far cry for its 1990's doormat days.

Also given consideration:
Texas Tech
BYU
Arkansas

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