Monday, February 23, 2009

Bubble Watch - Weekend Update

After a weekend full of exciting games, several teams helped their tournament causes, while a few others shot themselves in the foot.

Time is starting to run and out, and desperation may set in for a few teams listed below.

No Longer a Lock
Gonzaga – Sure, they’ve only lost once in 2009, but their RPI continues to slip thanks to a weak conference schedule. They have probably saved up enough goodwill from previous tournaments, but this clearly isn’t one of Gonzaga’s better teams in recent memory. Their schedule is easy enough that they shouldn’t lose until possibly the WCC championship, but a loss before then would be very bad.

Ohio State – OSU has fallen out of the RPI top 40 (43) and into legitimate bubble territory. With a 7-7 conference record, Ohio State will need to win at least two of its last four games. After losing their last three games, the Buckeyes are rapidly losing ground in the Big Ten. Ohio State hosts Penn State tomorrow night in what will be a big game for both teams.

Georgetown – We already knew the Hoyas were in trouble, despite a lofty RPI, but now that RPI has fallen all the way to 45. Worse, they are 5-9 in the Big East, have lost eight of their last ten, and just missed a chance for a big home win against Marquette. Georgetown hosts Louisville today and this game could be considered a must-win game. If they lose, their next game (at Louisville) most definitely becomes a ‘must-win’ game, but even that may not be enough.

South Carolina – In January, South Carolina looked like it might be a rising squad in the SEC, but lately they have been just as inconsistent as the rest of the bunch and their RPI has slipped to 44. With an 8-4 SEC record, South Carolina may be able to absorb home losses to Tennessee and Kentucky over the next couple of weeks, but a win in one of those two games would probably punch their ticket.

Moving Up
Texas – After knocking off Oklahoma this past weekend, Texas might have just sealed their bid. With an RPI at 35, Texas can probably afford to split their last four games and still feel relatively comfortable.

Texas A&M – Having just beat Texas themselves, A&M gets a bit of a secondary bump from Texas’ win over Oklahoma. With an RPI of 39 and 5-7 conference record, Texas A&M certainly can’t feel too comfortable right now, but their next three games are manageable and they finish with an important home date against Missouri.

LSU – After moving into the RPI top 40, LSU is almost assured of an NCAA bid. Even if they lose their last four games, LSU would still have an 11-5 SEC record.

Creighton – This team jumped about 10 RPI spots after knocking off George Mason in Bracket Busters. With many other bubble teams struggling, Creighton has to be considered a dark horse candidate to sneak into the tournament. The regular season finale against fellow bubble team Illinois St. looms large.

St. Mary’s – Another team that benefited from Bracket Busters, St. Mary’s profile certainly looks a little better after beating Utah State.

Maryland – Maryland got one of the big wins (UNC) they needed, but they will probably need another one before all is said and done. With Duke and Wake Forest still on the schedule, it just might be possible.

Penn State – A huge week for the Nittany Lions (wins over Minnesota, @ Illinois) leaves Penn State at 8-6 in the Big Ten. They travel to now-struggling Ohio State tomorrow and a win will inch Penn State even closer to that elusive bid. Their RPI (61) and non-conference schedule are still weak, but a few more conference wins will improve their profile.

Ole Miss – Don’t look now, but Ole Miss has won five of it last seven (including wins over Kentucky and Tennessee) so perhaps it’s time to give the Rebels a cursory glance. Their RPI has nudged up to 65, and with a 6-6 conference record, they aren’t completely dead. They probably need to win their last four games to have a decent chance, though.

Moving Down
USC – They missed a chance after losing at home to Washington, so they really need a result out of their road trip to Cal later this week. Their other three games won’t help their profile, but can definitely hurt them.

Davidson – After getting demolished by Butler, Davidson has run out of chances to improve their profile. Another loss would be devastating, and anything less than a conference championship may not be enough at this point.

Virginia Tech – Sinking like a rock right now, Virginia Tech can’t catch a break. They have lost three straight and finish with four games against the ACC’s top four teams. They absolutely need to win two of those games to get back into the discussion.

Providence – After losing at home to Notre Dame, it’s probably over for Providence. Their RPI has sunk to 76 and they’ve lost five of their last seven. They have two more chances to record big wins (Pitt, @Villanova) but it still might not be enough.

Tuesday, February 17, 2009

Bubble Watch

Everyone knows that the unwritten law of NCAA tournament selection is that nearly every “BCS” conference team with greater than a .500 conference record will make it to the Big Dance. Occasionally, a team will sneak in at under .500 if at has some quality out-of-conference wins or an especially brutal schedule.

Some empirical data also suggests that nearly every BCS team with an RPI of 40 or better will be selected, and that every top 30 non-BCS team will be selected. Certainly than have been a few exceptions here and there, but I’ll hold that rule for simplification.

Following these basic rules, the following teams would advance:
ACC – UNC, Duke, Clemson, Wake Forest, Florida State
Big Ten – Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Minnesota
Big East – Pitt, Connecticut, Villanova, West Virginia, Louisville, Syracuse, Marquette, Georgetown
Big 12 – Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma State
Pac 10 – Washington, Cal, Arizona State, UCLA
SEC – Tennessee, South Carolina
Mountain West – Utah
Atlantic 10 – Xavier, Dayton
Conference USA – Memphis
Horizon – Butler
West Coast – Gonzaga
Metro Atlantic – Siena

For those of you keeping track, twelve conferences are represented above. For argument’s sake, let’s assume that all twelve auto bids for these conferences come from the teams already listed. The above list includes 37 teams, so reducing that number by 12 means 25 at-large bids are already more or less accounted for.

Given that there are 31 auto bids, this also means that 19 bids will be given to teams that wouldn’t qualify via the above requirements. Adding the 36 teams in the first list to the 19 other auto bids gives a total of 55, which means that only ten bids are truly up for grabs.

Another empirical observation of mine is that no team outside of the RPI top 65 will receive a bid. Air Force did get a bid in 2004 with an RPI of 70, but again, for argument’s sake, let’s cap it at 65.

Basically, this means that there are approximately 29 schools fighting for the last ten berths. Of course, this assumes that teams currently in the RPI top 40 will stay there, and we all know that is not going to happen. Before taking a look at some of these bubble schools, I’d like to point out a couple of teams in the ‘safe’ list that might not be so safe.

Siena (29) – Siena is on the very edge of safety for a non-BCS school. They won’t have much of a chance to improve their RPI and they lack an RPI top 50 win. One more loss might just nudge them out of the RPI top 30.

Oklahoma State (37) – OSU has a relatively strong RPI, but this is more due to a strong schedule than recording solid wins. Oklahoma State is 4-6 in the Big 12 and is 2-8 against RPI top 50 schools, with their best win coming against fellow bubble-mate Siena. OSU should probably win five of its last six games to maintain this RPI (and a plus .500 conference record) but that will mean beating either Texas at home or Oklahoma on the road.

Georgetown (39) – Like Oklahoma State, Georgetown’s RPI is propped up by a killer schedule, although to their credit they do have some terrific wins (Memphis, @Conn, Syracuse). However, they have lost seven of their last eight and still have to play Marquette, Louisville, and Villanova. Georgetown will probably need to win two of those games to have a solid chance.

And on to the bubble teams!

Utah State (33) – Impressive record (23-2) but they have only three victories against RPI top 100 schools. Utah State will need to win at St. Mary’s (Bracket Busters) because their other four remaining opponents have an average RPI of over 200. Anything less than a tourney championship will probably leave them out in the cold.

Temple (34) – Surprisingly high RPI for a 15-9 team with only one RPI top 50 win. Temple does have a 7-3 conference record in the tough A-10. With a relatively easy remaining schedule, Temple has a chance to run the table if they can win at Dayton. If Temple can’t knock off Dayton, they will need a deep tourney run.

BYU (35) – 18-5 (7-3) with no bad losses, but no great wins either. They do have a neutral court win over Utah State. Their remaining schedule is tough, with dates against Mountain West rivals UNLV, San Diego State, and Utah. All four of those teams are in the hunt, so that three game stretch will go a long way in determining who advances.

UAB (39) – With only two RPI top 100 wins, I’m somewhat surprised to see UAB ranked this high, especially with a 17-8 record. The early season win at Arizona looks good and none of their losses is particularly damaging, but UAB may regret not winning one of its several close losses against RPI top 25 teams (Oklahoma, Butler, Memphis). If UAB can knock off Memphis at home, they will get a look, but otherwise I don’t see it happening.

LSU (41) – LSU is a near lock at this point with a 9-1 SEC record, including wins over Tennessee and South Carolina. They can probably afford a slip-up or two, especially if they manage to beat Florida at home or Kentucky on the road. The only yellow flag is their awful, awful non-conference schedule.

Arizona (42) – Winners of seven straight, Arizona is playing well at the right time. Probably safe, but a win at Arizona State or Washington would probably seal the deal. Arizona State currently has an 8-5 conference record and should end up with at least ten conference wins.

USC (43) – Not quite as strong a profile as Arizona, USC has yet to record any significant road wins. Their only remaining chance is at Cal. A home win over Washington this weekend would also enhance their profile, as they currently maintain a 6-6 conference record.

Texas (44) – In a bit of a tailspin at the moment. Texas has non-conference wins over Villanova and Wisconsin but have lost four of their last six. Texas will need to win one of these three games to be confident of a bid: Oklahoma, @Ok St, @Kansas.

San Diego State (45) – Very similar to BYU. Remaining home games against BYU and UNLV could improve their profile. San Diego State missed chances to record non-conference wins against Arizona and St. Mary’s.

Florida (46) – Fairly impressive record at 19-6, but other than an early season win over Washington, the Gators don’t have much to brag about. After blowing a game against previously SEC-winless Georgia, Florida will need to win at least two of these three: @LSU, Tennessee, Kentucky.

Texas A&M (47) – Staying alive after yesterday’s win over Texas, the Aggies have a very realistic chance of reaching .500 in the Big 12. Currently at 4-7, the Aggies only face one more team with a winning conference record (out of five). If Texas A&M can’t defeat Nebraska on the road, they will absolutely have to beat Missouri at home in their regular season finale.

Cincinnati (48) – Swept Georgetown and also have wins over fellow bubble teams UAB and UNLV. Their next three games (Louisville, West Virginia, @Syracuse) are brutal and Cincinnati will probably need to win two of those games to boost their profile.

Miami (49) – Miami has faced a tough schedule and notched a few notable wins (at Kentucky, Florida State, Wake Forest) but they still sit at 4-7 in the ACC. A road win at Florida State would then lead into a manageable four game stretch that could leave them at 9-7. Anything less, however, might not be enough, other than an extended ACC tourney run.

Davidson (50) – Only a win against West Virginia keeps their profile from looking completely blank. Their recent home loss to Charleston (120) hurts, as well as their remaining weak conference schedule, but a Bracket Busters win at home over Butler may push them into safer territory. Also, they may get the benefit of the doubt after last year’s performance.

Virginia Tech (51) – Solid ACC record (6-4) but unfortunately five of their last six games are against RPI top 20 teams. A couple of wins from that group (Florida State, @Clemson, Duke, UNC, @FSU) are essentially a requirement. Virginia Tech already holds solid road wins over Wake Forest and Miami.

Boston College (52) – Wins over Duke and UNC help mask ugly losses to Harvard and Saint Louis. A win in either of their next two games (@ Miami, Florida State) would help tremendously.

Michigan (53) – Still alive after beating Northwestern on the road, Michigan needs to win three of its last five just to get to .500 in the Big Ten. No easy task considering they have two against Minnesota, host Purdue and travel to Wisconsin. Even the one ‘gimmie’ (at Iowa) is no walk in the park. In short, Michigan is up against the wall right now. Wins over Duke and UCLA may come in handy if Michigan can win a few more conference games.

Baylor (54) – Like Michigan, Baylor has struggled in conference, but unlike Michigan, they don’t have great non-conference wins to fall back on, although Arizona State and Providence are both decent wins. At 4-7 in the Big 12, Baylor has to win four of five to get to 8-8. Road trips to Oklahoma State and Texas will probably prevent that from happening.

UNLV (55) – See BYU and San Diego State. They do have an ace in the hole with a road win at Louisville, but will need to score a couple of wins against the trio of Utah, BYU, and San Diego State to separate themselves from the pack.

Creighton (56) – Not likely to get any love with a home win over Dayton as the only decent accomplishment on their profile. If they can run the table, including George Mason in Bracket Busters and MVC rival Illinois State, Creighton might just get a look if they can get to their tourney championship game.

George Mason (57) – No clue how they have an RPI in range of Creighton’s. With five losses to RPI sub-100 teams (and two to RPI sub-200 teams), George Mason should focus on winning their conference tournament.

Illinois State (58) – Significantly weaker profile than Creighton, their RPI might improve with three relatively tough games (@Niagara, Northern Iowa, @Creighton) remaining. Even winning those three might not be enough if they don’t get to their conference title game.

St. Mary’s (59) – As has been well publicized, St. Mary’s has struggled without their injured star, losing four of their last six. A home win over Utah State will look good, but their fate probably rests on the health of Patty Mills.

Maryland (60) – Hanging around in the ACC at 5-5, Maryland faces the four top teams (@Clemson, UNC, Duke, Wake) in their last six games. Maryland will probably need to win two of them to get a solid look.

Kentucky (61) – Hard to envision a tournament without Kentucky, but the Wildcats will have to be careful. Four of their last six are tricky (Tennessee, @South Carolina, LSU, @Florida) and they would do well to split those games.

Niagara (62) – Not bloody likely.

Rhode Island (63) – No signature wins, but if they can run the table they will end up at 12-4 in the A-10. Only Dayton (and maybe @ Duquesne) should present a problem. If that happens, then we’ll talk.

Nebraska (64) – Will need to win four of their last six, including two (maybe three) from this group (@Kansas, Texas A&M, @ Kansas State, @Baylor) to get back into the conversation.

Western Kentucky (65) – Early season win over Louisville is all that’s keeping them alive. Even if they run the table, their weak remaining schedule will drag down their RPI.

Bonus teams!
Providence (69) – No bad losses and some good wins (Syracuse, swept Cincinnati) give Providence a little bit of leeway. Remaining schedule includes @Louisville, Notre Dame, Pitt, @Villanova. Two wins from that group could leave Providence at 11-5 in the Big East, which should be good enough for the Dance.

Penn State (71) – Terrible non-conference schedule holds them back, but if they can win one of their next two (@Illinois, @OSU) Penn State’s stock should increase dramatically.

Notre Dame (74) – Sigh. They need to win four of six to get to .500 in the Big East. That means winning two from this group: @West Virginia, @Providence, @Connecticut, Villanova. I don’t see it happening, but they still have a chance.

There you have it. If I had to pick ten from that group, I’d go with LSU, Arizona, Texas, BYU, Florida, Kentucky, Boston College, UNLV, Temple, and Utah State.