Tuesday, October 30, 2007

Boston: Momentum Killers

Before I get into this week's updated college rankings, I need to say a few words about baseball, since the only news from here on out will be about A-Rod's millions, what happens to Joe Torre, and who the Red Sox decide to overpay in this year's free agency.

First of all, I think it's ridiculous that the Red Sox would benefit from coming out lame against the Indians and then storming back to win the series in Game 7. The Rockies took care of business throughout the playoffs. Their reward? Sitting on their asses for ten days while the Red Sox sweat it out against the Indians. I can't think of a better way to kill a team's rally spirit then to sit in a hotel for a week and a half.

You could argue that the Rockies' arms were fresh and the team was rested, but you cannot discount the factor of momentum. Momentum is one of those abstract concepts, like clutch hitting, that cannot be accurately quantified.

For example, the immortal Jason Kendall and Matt Lawton rank as two of the top five clutch hitters of all time, according to MLB's own statistical analysis of clutch hitting. Most fans would disagree with that statement and throw out names like David Ortiz and Derek Jeter. Like clutch hitting, momentum is an important facet of the game, and the drawn-out playoff scheduling destroyed the slight edge the Rockies may have earned with their amazing run.

And sure, you could argue that the Rockies were doomed to lose, due to minor issues like overall talent and pitching depth. Or a Red Sox payroll that allows them to pay their top four players (Manny, JD Drew, Ortiz and Schilling) more than the Rockies' entire roster. Or that, at the start of September, the Rockies were only three games over .500 and all but forgotten. Or that the Game 1 demolition would have happened with or without the 10-day layover. BUT, all that said, I still would have liked to have seen a series between the BoSox and a momentum-carrying Rockies. Truthfully though, what I really would have liked to have seen is the Red Sox get their asses kicked...

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In college football this past week, we had a number of games between ranked teams, and nearly all of them were as close as advertised. Oregon and Arizona State won statement games, Georgia shook the Gator off its back and Boston College finally got a win worth talking about.

1 – LSU (7-1)
Key Wins: Va Tech (48-7), Florida (28-24), Auburn (30-24)
Loss(es): @ Kentucky (43-37)
LSU had this past weekend off, which they undoubtedly used to start preparing for next week’s matchup against Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide. An emphatic win would help solidify LSU’s position at the top of the rankings.
2 – Ohio State (9-0)
Key Wins: @ Purdue 23-7, @ Penn State (37-17)
Loss(es): None
An impressive performance against Penn State leaves the Buckeyes feeling great as they head into their final three games – Wisconsin, Illinois and Michigan - an excellent opportunity to prove that they belong in the BCS title game after last year’s debacle.
3 – Oregon (7-1)
Key Wins: @ Michigan (39-7), Fresno State (52-21), USC (24-17)
Loss(es): Cal (31-24)
Oregon’s win over USC has thrust the Ducks into the National Championship picture. Quarterback Dennis Dixon has been nothing short of superb this season.
4 – ASU (8-0)
Key Wins: Colorado (33-14), Cal (31-20)
Loss(es): None
Arizona State answered Oregon’s impressive win with one of their own as they knocked off Cal, setting up a huge Pac-10 showdown next weekend, as ASU travels to Eugene, Oregon. The winner will have the inside track to the Pac-10 championship and perhaps a shot at the BCS championship.
5 – Oklahoma (7-1)
Key Wins: @ Texas (28-21), @ Missouri (41-31)
Loss(es): @ Colorado (27-24)
Oklahoma was idle this weekend, and dropped one spot as a result of ASU’s win over Cal. Assuming that the Sooners take care of business at home against Texas A&M, Oklahoma will probably slide back into the spot vacated by the loser of the Oregon-ASU matchup.
6 – Missouri (7-1)
Key Wins: Illinois (40-34), Nebraska (41-6), Texas Tech (41-10)
Loss(es): @ Oklahoma (31-41)
A win over 1-8 Iowa State did not give Missouri much of a chance to make a statement, but travel to Boulder this weekend to face a hungry Colorado team that just knocked off Texas Tech.
7 – BC (8-0)
Key Wins: @ Georgia Tech (24-10), VT (14-10)
Loss(es): None
With a win over Virginia Tech, BC has proven that it deserves to be undefeated. However, BC’s credentials aren’t significantly more impressive than ASU, or even Kansas, so I can’t match the #2 AP ranking until BC proves it can go the distance.
8 – WVU (7-1)
Key Wins: @ Rutgers (31-3)
Loss(es): USF (13-21)
West Virginia, led by Steve Slaton and Pat White, dominated Rutgers and showed that they are not yet out of the title hunt. Surprisingly, their late-season matchup with UConn could decide the Big East champion and subsequent BCS participant.
9 – Georgia (6-2)
Key Wins: Oklahoma St (35-14), Alabama (26-23), Florida (42-30)
Loss(es): South Carolina (12-16), @ Tennessee (14-35)
Up and down Dawgs were up in a big, big way this weekend as they put up 42 points against Florida while hounding Tim Tebow all afternoon. Even with two SEC losses, the Dawgs are still in the hunt for the SEC East crown.
10 – Kansas (8-0)
Key Wins: @Kansas St (30-24), @ Colorado (19-14), @ Texas A&M (19-14)
Loss(es): None
A week after traveling to Colorado and beating the Buffs, Kansas went into AggieLand and claimed another hard-fought Big 12 win. Kansas faces a struggling Nebraska team this week.
11 – Florida (5-3)
Key Wins: Tennessee (59-20), @ Kentucky (45-37)
Loss(es): Auburn (20-17), @ LSU (28-24), Georgia (30-42)
Tim Tebow’s shoulder injury severely limited the Gators’ offense and illustrated their lack of depth at RB. Florida still managed to put up 30 points, but the Gator defense was shredded by the ‘Dawgs. Even with a healthy shoulder, Tebow can’t play on both sides of the ball. Urban Meyer will need to address weaknesses in the secondary if the Gators hope to stop their slide.
12 – VT (6-2)
Key Wins: @ Clemson (41-23)
Loss(es): @ LSU (7-48), @ BC (10-14)
VT let an away win over BC slip through its fingers, but if the Hokies can run the table, they will set up a potential rematch with BC in the ACC Championship. You can bet that VT would love a second chance at Boston College.
13 – USF (6-2)
Key Wins: @ Auburn (26-23), W Virginia (21-13)
Loss(es): @ Rutgers (30-27), @ UConn (15-22)
Two consecutive losses have removed any BCS talk for this upstart program. The loss at UConn likely ended any chance that USF had of claiming the Big East title.
14 – Auburn (6-3)
Key Wins: Kansas State (23-13), Florida (20-17)
Loss(es): USF (23-26), Miss St (14-19), @ LSU (24-30)
Auburn won’t be tested in a late-season non-conference matchup against Tennessee Tech, but had better start prepping for SEC foes Georgia and Alabama. Auburn still has an outside shot an taking the SEC West crown, which means Auburn still has hopes for a BCS bid.
15 – Michigan (7-2)
Key Wins: Penn State (14-9), Purdue (48-21), @ Illinois (27-17)
Loss(es): App St (32-34), Oregon (7-39)
I never thought I would see the day where a pre-season #5 loses its opener to a I-AA team, falls out of the top 25, and then manages to climb back into the top 15. With two upcoming games against ranked opponents, including AP #1 Ohio State, it isn’t inconceivable that Michigan could get back to its original ranking.
16 – Alabama (6-2)
Key Wins: Tennessee (41-17)
Loss(es): Georgia (23-26), @ FSU (14-21)
Nick Saban and Alabama have had an extra week to prepare for the LSU Tigers. And you can bet that Little Nicky will have some devilish schemes cooked up for his opponent.
17 – USC (6-2)
Key Wins: @ Nebraska (49-31)
Loss(es): Stanford (23-24), @ Oregon (17-24)
USC battled tough against Oregon, but came up just short. Perhaps USC's reign atop the Pac-10 has finally come to a close: USC was the underdog in its game at Oregon and the final score proved that Vegas had it right.
18 – Texas (7-2)
Key Wins: None
Loss(es): Kansas State (21-41), Oklahoma (21-28)
Rivalry game or not, I can't give Texas any credit for its close win over Nebraska, especially after the way the Huskers have been gashed by the likes of Oklahoma State and Texas A&M.
19 – Cal (5-3)
Key Wins: Tennessee (45-31), @ Oregon (31-24)
Loss(es): Oregon St (28-31), UCLA (21-30), @ ASU (20-31)
Three straight losses have completely erased the memories of Cal's big early season wins over Oregon and Tennessee. The rest of the nation seems to have figured out how to stop the Golden Bears' high-powered offense, and it has certainly looked ordinary as of late.
20 – UConn (7-1)
Key Wins: S. Florida (22-15)
Loss(es): @ Virginia (16-17)
UConn enters the Top 25 for the first time ever, knocking off fellow upstart South Florida in the process. The 'meat' of the Big East schedule looms ahead, as UConn squares off against Rutgers and Cincinnati before the regular season finale at West Virginia.
21 - South Carolina (6-3)
Key Wins: @ Georgia (16-12), Kentucky (38-23)
Loss(es): @LSU (16-28), Vanderbilt (6-17), @ Tennessee (24-27)
South Carolina was a missed field goal away from taking the lead in the SEC East. With Florida looming in two weeks, South Carolina is once again looking like an SEC East also-ran.
22 – Kentucky (6-3)
Key Wins: Louisville (40-34), LSU (43-37)
Loss(es): @ South Carolina (38-23), Florida (45-37), Mississippi State (14-31)
Kentucky is heading in the wrong direction after its stunning OT upset of LSU, losing at home to Mississippi State. Long the SEC doormat of the West, MSU is perhaps turning its own corner, with away wins at Auburn and Kentucky.
23 – Boise State (7-1)
Key Wins: @ Fresno State (34-21)
Loss(es): @ Washington (10-24)
Boise State knocked off fellow WAC contender Fresno State to continue its six game win streak. If not for an early season loss to Washington, perhaps Boise State would be getting all the hype now reserved for Hawaii. Provided Boise State can win out, the regular season finale against Hawaii will settle the WAC score once and for all.
24 – Tennessee (5-3)
Key Wins: Georgia (35-14), South Carolina (27-24)
Loss(es): @ Cal (31-45), @ Florida (20-59), @ Alabama (17-41)
Thrilling win over South Carolina does not hide the fact that this season has been a huge disappointment for the Vols. Strong at home, the Vols have had a tendency to lay down on the road, letting close games turn into routs. Perhaps the tight win over Spurrier and South Carolina will spark this team to the SEC championship, as they currently hold the edge in the SEC East standings.
25 – Hawaii (8-0)
Key Wins: None
Loss(es): None
Different week, same story: Hawaii beats up on another hapless foe, this time New Mexico State. Wake me up on 11/30, if Hawaii is still undefeated after taking on Fresno State.

Others given consideration: Clemson, Georgia Tech, Oklahoma State, Illinois, Troy

Kentucky was this week's big loser as I dropped them 11 spots after a surprising home loss to Mississippi State. Georgia was the big winner and climbed from #24 all the way to #9. For the record, I still think Texas is extremely overrated.

I have noticed that several teams are ranked in the polls now after doing absolutely nothing, ala Wake Forest. I doubt it was Wake's win over ACC cellar-dweller UNC that vaulted them into the polls, but rather the pollsters' obsession with records and automatically dropping teams after a loss. The only team with a winning record that Wake Forest has beaten is Florida State, and FSU hasn't exactly been setting the world on fire. Oh, and that win was about a month ago. But now voters feel that Wake Forest is a top 25 team.

And don't get me started on Wisconsin. Recently blown out by Penn State, most voters now have the Badgers ranked ahead of Penn State in the wake of Penn State's loss to Ohio State. Of course Penn State was going to lose - they were barely ranked while OSU is AP #1! I personally don't think much of either Wisconsin or Penn State, but it's that kind of short-sightedness that led us to the BCS in the first place.

Friday, October 26, 2007

Welcome to SEC Bias

Welcome to South-East Coast Bias. Let me just get this out the way: The SEC is the best conference in the country. Football in particular. The Big Ten? Fuck you. ACC? Eat a dick. PAC 10? Bunch of hippies.

OK - so that's coming on a little strong. But realistically speaking, I think history bares out the truth that the SEC is the top conference in college football. This season is no different. Currently seven teams are ranked in the AP Top 25, including four in the top 15. No other conference has more than four in the top 25.


All that aside, I think I need to point out the East Coast Bias that is present in today's sports coverage. Not a novel concept, I know, but since when does Matt Ryan become a Heisman contender? In ESPN.com's latest Heisman poll, Matt Ryan ranks second. Sure, the first and third ranked contenders are SEC quarterbacks, but it boggles my mind that Matt Ryan would even be under consideration. Up until his comeback win against VaTech, which mind you occurred after ESPN's latest poll, what had he done? His team is ranked second and he is the quarterback. Big whoop. That's how Jason White and Chris Weinke won the Heisman. Is that really what we want?

And yes, I'm still angry that Charles Woodson won the Heisman instead of Peyton Manning.

So in this column (column sounds more official than blog) I'll be mostly writing about football, with some occasional NBA and MLB observations. I may even foray into Formula One, soccer, and other European-type sports. I'll also occasionally write about random things that piss me off, whether it's work-related (I do have a real job), random annoying assholes, or petty complaints about Pop Culture. I should probably also point out that my favorite teams are the Tennessee Volunteers, Chicago Bears and Atlanta Braves. If I had to pick an NBA team, I'd go with the Pistons. There is a logic here, which I'll explain at a later date, but no, I'm not a bandwagon fan. If I was, I'm sure I'd be a fan of USC, the Red Sox and the Patriots. But I'm not. Because bandwagon fans suck.

Anyhow, on to the meat of my first subject

I felt that, as a college football aficionado, it was important for me to generate my own Top 25. My criteria may differ slightly from that of the fine individuals who submit ballots for the AP, Harris Poll, etc, in that I consider potential as well as current performance. This is due to the fact that many teams (Pac-10 and Big Ten in particular) have yet to get into the heart of their schedules. For example, BC may be 8-0, but did they really deserve to be #2 just because they have gone the season without losing a game?

1 – LSU (7-1)
Key Wins: Va Tech (48-7), Florida (28-24), Auburn (30-24)
Loss(es): @ Kentucky (43-37)
LSU has shown that they are the most dominant team in college football right now, despite the 3OT loss to Kentucky. An upcoming trip to Tuscaloosa will give the Tigers a chance to re-establish themselves and start looking forward to an SEC Title re-match with Florida.
2 – Ohio State (8-0)
Key Wins: @ Purdue 23-7
Loss(es): None
Ohio State has not done anything to prevent them from attaining the number one ranking, but until they play (and beat) a top opponent, I cannot rank them higher than a team that has already defeated three top 15 opponents. Unfortunately, tough tests appear to be few and far between in this year’s Big Ten.
3 – Oregon (6-1)
Key Wins: @ Michigan (39-7), Fresno State (52-21)
Loss(es): Cal (31-24)
The early win against Michigan is looking better and better as the Wolverines roll through the Big Ten, and the Ducks will have two opportunities to put their own exclamation point on a surprising run with consecutive home games against USC and Arizona State.
4 – Oklahoma (7-1)
Key Wins: @ Texas (28-21), @ Missouri (41-31)
Loss(es): @ Colorado (27-24)
Sam Bradford has led a resurgence in the Sooners’ passing game, but Oklahoma will need to avoid mental lapses like last week’s uninspired effort against Iowa State
to remain in the top 5.
5 – Florida (5-2)
Key Wins: Tennessee (59-20), @ Kentucky (45-37)
Loss(es): Auburn (20-17), @ LSU (28-24)
Two tough losses, but with the way Tim Tebow and company are playing, I have a hard time believing that any of the remaining one-loss and undefeated teams could knock off the Gators. If Tebow continues playing the way he has so far, he'll be hearing plenty more "Fuck You Te-Bow" chants at opposing stadiums.
6 – ASU (7-0)
Key Wins: Colorado (33-14)
Loss(es): None
Arizona State has not faced a strong challenger this season, but the Sun Devils put their undefeated season to the test starting this week with a brutal PAC-10 run, including Cal, Oregon, @UCLA, and USC.
7 – USF (6-1)
Key Wins: @ Auburn (26-23), W Virginia (21-13)
Loss(es): @ Rutgers (30-27)
USF has shown enough with wins over SEC power Auburn and Big East contender West Virginia to prove that they deserve a top ten ranking. Their Big East schedule is set up for a possible 11-1 finish.
8 – Missouri (6-1)
Key Wins: Illinois (40-34), Nebraska (41-6), Texas Tech (41-10)
Loss(es): @ Oklahoma (31-41)
Like Oregon, Missouri is getting some mileage out of an early season victory over a Big Ten opponent. The Tigers have rolled through their Big 12 challengers, with the exception of Oklahoma. If Kansas continues to roll, the end-of-season matchup with the Jayhawks could prove interesting.
9 – BC (8-0)
Key Wins: @ Georgia Tech (24-10), VT (14-10)
Loss(es): None
With a win over Virginia Tech, BC has proven that it deserves to be undefeated. However, BC’s credentials aren’t significantly more impressive than ASU, or even Kansas, so I can’t match the #2 AP ranking until BC proves it can go the distance.
10 – WVU (6-1)
Key Wins: None
Loss(es): USF (13-21)
The Mountaineers lack a signature win, but could get the closest thing to it with a win at Rutgers this weekend.
11 – Kentucky (6-2)
Key Wins: Louisville (40-34), LSU (43-37)
Loss(es): @ South Carolina (38-23), Florida (45-37)
Kentucky finally fells Louisville, who then turns around and lies down on its season. With Andre Woodson leading the charge, Kentucky looks like a legitimate threat. A porous defense (25 or more points allowed in five games) could thwart any further improvement in the Wildcats ranking.
12 – Kansas (7-0)
Key Wins: @Kansas St (30-24), @ Colorado (19-14)
Loss(es): None
Kansas has dominated its lesser opponents and knocked off its first two Big 12 challenges. The Jayhawks host Missouri looms in the season finale.
13 – USC (6-1)
Key Wins: @ Nebraska (49-31)
Loss(es): Stanford (23-24)
USC has done little to prove that it deserved the almost universal assumption that a National Championship was a mere formality. As with the other PAC-10 teams, the next few weeks will sort out the pretenders from the contenders. Perhaps USC will still have a chance to redeem themselves after an inexplicable loss to the Cardinal.
14 – VT (6-2)
Key Wins: @ Clemson (41-23)
Loss(es): @ LSU (7-48), @ BC (10-14)
VT let an away win over BC slip through its fingers, but if the Hokies can run the table, they will set up a potential rematch with BC in the ACC Championship. You can bet that VT would love a second chance at Boston College.
15 – Auburn (5-3)
Key Wins: Kansas State (23-13), Florida (20-17)
Loss(es): USF (23-26), Miss St (14-19), @ LSU (24-30)
Auburn may have three losses, but it’s tough to be too hard on them given how close each of those losses was. The win over Florida came at just the right time for this program, thrusting them back into the SEC title hunt.
16 – Cal (5-2)
Key Wins: Tennessee (45-31), @ Oregon (31-24)
Loss(es): Oregon St (28-31), UCLA (21-30)
A promising season appears to have derailed as the Golden Bears have suffered two straight defeats. With the return of talented QB Nate Longshore, Cal will look to rebound against undefe
ated Arizona State.
17 – Michigan (6-2)
Key Wins: Penn State (14-9), Purdue (48-21), @ Illinois (27-17)
Loss(es): App St (32-34), Oregon (7-39)
Either the Big Ten is really lousy, or Appalachian State was a fluke loss. Mike Hart has carried this team all season, and the Wolverines will need him back and healthy if they hope to contend for the Big Ten title. All eyes are on 11/17, when the Buckeyes come into town. That game will likely decide the Big Ten championship.
18 – South Carolina (6-2)
Key Wins: @ Georgia (16-12), Kentucky (38-23)
Loss(es): @ LSU (16-28), @ Vanderbilt (6-17)
What gives? South Carolina knocks off SEC East rivals Kentucky and Georgia, and then falls to Vanderbilt. This week’s matchup against Tennessee will help prove whether Spurrier-led South Carolina has finally made the leap to being a legitimate SEC contender.
19 – Alabama (6-2)
Key Wins: Tennessee (41-17)
Loss(es): Georgia (23-26), @ FSU (14-21)
Nick Saban welcomes his former employer, LSU, into Tuscaloosa this weekend, as the Crimson Tide looks to move into a three-way tie for first place in the SEC West. Up until the thumping of the Vols, Alabama had not looked particularly impressive.
20 – Texas (5-2)
Key Wins: None
Loss(es): Kansas State (21-41), Oklahoma (21-28)
It’s hard to tell if Texas even belongs in the top 25. Texas has lost to the only two decent teams it has played and has looked sluggish in its victories. Upcoming games against rivals Nebraska, Texas A&M and Texas Tech will help show what kind of team the Longhorns are fielding this year.
21 – Virginia (7-1)
Key Wins: U Conn (17-16), Georgia Tech (28-23)
Loss(es): @ Wyoming (3-23)
Aside from the opening loss to Wyoming, Virginia has led a charmed life, winning four games by a total of six points. Virginia could very well be headed to the ACC Championship as the Coastal division representative.
22 – Rutgers (5-2)
Key Wins: South Florida (30-27)
Loss(es): Maryland (24-34), Cincinnati (23-28)
With Ray Rice running strong, Rutgers is certainly capable of surprising a few teams. One of those teams might be West Virginia, who visits New Jersey this weekend.
23 – Penn St (6-2)
Key Wins: Wisconsin (38-7)
Loss(es): @ Michigan (9-14), @ Illinois (20-27)
Penn State appears to be peaking offensively at just the right time: Ohio State comes into town this weekend. Penn State has put up 27 or more points in its last three games, but will likely have a tough time moving the ball against OSU.
24 – Georgia (5-2)
Key Wins: Oklahoma St (35-14), Alabama (26-23)
Loss(es): South Carolina (12-16), @ Tennessee (14-35)
Georgia has struggled with consistency this year. The OT win over Alabama was a great win for the program and it looked like Matt Stafford might have made “The Leap” but the ‘Dawgs came crashing down with a blowout loss at Neyland Stadium.
25 – Hawaii (7-0)
Key Wins: None
Loss(es): None
Winning games is tough, and Hawaii has certainly shown that with a couple of close games against mediocre opponents. But you have to give them credit for not slipping up yet. Until Hawaii loses a game, they will stay in my top 25. But don’t expect them to beat both Fresno State and Boise State.

Others given consideration:
Clemson, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Kansas State, Illinois, UCLA

This should be an excellent weekend for college football, with five matchups between Top 25 teams. In addition, several important conference games will serve to clear up space at the top of each conference. Florida at Georgia, OSU at Penn State, USC at Oregon - should all be great games.

If it wasn't for Halloween parties, I'd be up late watching the Tennessee-South Carolina tilt, but instead I'll have to settle for working on my Tony Montana accent and slamming Heinekens and Jaeger Bombs.