Tuesday, November 13, 2007

College Football Rankings

Another week of crazy college football. No one seems to want to win the National Championship this year. Only one undefeated BCS-conference team remains, and Kansas has done it while managing to play only two teams with records currently over .500: 6-5 Texas A&M and 6-4 Central Michigan. Fortunately for us, Ohio State finally decided to lose and save us the trouble of having to watch them get blown out by another SEC team in the BCS Championship.

Right now we are set up with an LSU-Oregon matchup, which I believe would be a fantastic game. Oregon has not played a team with LSU's speed, but LSU has the advantage of having already faced a dynamic running quarterback in Tim Tebow. However, I would not be surprised to see LSU fall to Georgia or Tennessee in the SEC Championship, which could leave us with an Oregon-Oklahoma/Missouri/Kansas matchup. If Oregon slips up against UCLA and/or Oregon State (it could happen) then I honestly have no idea who would end up in the National Championship.

I doubt that the country would vote in two Big 12 teams, since 2 of the 3 will have another loss when all is said and done, so who knows? Maybe Arizona State or West Virginia could sneak back into the race with a couple of upsets. If Georgia gets a lucky break (i.e. Tennessee slips up against Kentucky or Vanderbilt) and knocks off LSU, they would have as good an argument as anyone else.

Speaking of Georgia, they are about as impressive as anyone in the country right now. One of their knocks has always been inconsistency, so we'll see if they can avoid a letdown against Kentucky and in-state rival Georgia Tech. Knowshon Moreno has been impressive, however I was surprised to see that Mel Kiper currently has Moreno listed in his top five for the Heisman. I think he may have just been trying to make a statement on just how good the kid could turn out to be (Herschel Walker anyone?) but to have him rated as top five in the country is a little extreme.

(Segue to...)

Which brings me to my opinion on this year's Heisman race. Much like the race for the National Championship, this year's Heisman race has been completely up for grabs, with no real standout contender. I generally agree with the current consensus of Dennis Dixon, Tim Tebow, Darren McFadden, Chase Daniel and Pat White. I could also see arguments for Sam Bradford (leads nation in QB rating) and Todd Reesing (0 INT's in 8 of 10 games) to be in the top five, as well as Kevin Smith (UCF) and Matt Forte (Tulane) who are both on pace to surpass 2000 rushing yards. I hadn't heard of these running backs until a couple of days ago, so I imagine most people haven't either. But anytime someone runs for 2000 yards, you figure a guy has to be pretty decent.

One last guy who has received almost no national acclaim is Mario Manningham (Michigan). This wide receiver has continually kept Michigan in games, especially as of late, with Chad Henne and Mike Hart injured. He has the highest YPC of any receiver with at least 50 receptions, has over 1000 yards and has 100+ yards in his last six games. But more than anything else, the guy gets open and scores touchdowns - he's currently tied for fifth in receiving TD's.

So with all that said, my top five for the Heisman would look like this:

1. Tim Tebow
2. Darren McFadden
3. Dennis Dixon
4. Chase Daniel
5. Mario Manningham

Now that I've done enough rambling, on to this week's edition of my top 25 rankings.

1 – LSU (9-1)
Key Wins: Virginia Tech, Florida, Auburn
Loss(es): Kentucky
The Tigers romped in their late-season non-conference matchup with neighbor Louisiana Tech, but LSU cannot afford to take their collective foot off the gas. They may be tempted to let up with an SEC title game berth already wrapped up, but you can bet that Les Miles will have his Tigers prepared for Ole Miss and Arkansas.
2 – Oregon (8-1)
Key Wins: Michigan, USC, Arizona State
Loss(es): Cal
Oregon moves into prime BCS Championship territory after Ohio State's letdown. Oregon's remaining schedule is not incredibly difficult, but you never know what can happen over three Pac-10 games.
3 – Oklahoma (9-1)
Key Wins: Texas, Missouri
Loss(es): Colorado
The Sooners took care of business against Big 12 weakling, Baylor, and are hoping for their own shot at the BCS title. An underrated Sam Bradford continues to lead this team in the right direction.
4 – Missouri (9-1)
Key Wins: Illinois, Texas Tech
Loss(es): Oklahoma
Another Big 12 team with a high performing quarterback in Chase Daniels, the Missouri Tigers are hoping to avenge their early-season loss to the Sooners. They'll have to get through undefeated Kansas first, though.
5 – West Virginia (8-1)
Key Wins: Mississippi State, Rutgers
Loss(es): South Florida
West Virginia was not particularly dominating in its Thursday night matchup against Louisville, but remain in the hunt for a BCS championship berth. Wins over ranked Cincinnati and UConn could gain the Mountaineers a few votes.
6 – Kansas (10-0)
Key Wins: None
Loss(es): None
Kansas was as good as advertised in pulling away from Oklahoma State. While Big 12 scheduling prevented Kansas from having a regular season matchup with Texas or Oklahoma, a win over Missouri in two weeks would pit the Jayhawks against Oklahoma for the Big 12 Championship, and, with the BCS Rankings the way they are, a possible BCS Championship bid.
7 – Georgia (8-2)
Key Wins: Alabama, Florida, Auburn
Loss(es): South Carolina, Tennessee
Georgia was absolutely dominant in thrashing SEC rival Auburn. I watched this game and can attest that Matthew Stafford is a legit quarterback. The kid can throw.
8 – Ohio State (10-1)
Key Wins: Penn State, Wisconsin
Loss(es): Illinois
I'd like to say "I told you so" but that seems so juvenile. To be fair, no one expected the Buckeyes to last this long, or to even be in a position to compete for the Big Ten title after losing so many players last year. But still... I told you so...
9 – Florida (7-3)
Key Wins: Tennessee, Kentucky
Loss(es): Auburn, LSU, Georgia
Tim Tebow put up a performance for the ages against South Carolina, accounting for 80 percent of Florida's offense and ALL of its seven touchdowns. Wow. There does seem to be a trend for players to have career performances against South Carolina as of late (see: Darren McFadden) so even the Ol' Ball Coach may have to start paying a little attention to his defense in practice now.
10 – Virginia Tech (8-2)
Key Wins: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech
Loss(es): LSU, Boston College
Virginia Tech pulled away late from Florida State to avoid the same fate as ACC colleague Boston College. I find myself having difficulty getting excited about this team, but they could very well win the ACC.
11 – Arizona State (9-1)
Key Wins: Cal
Loss(es): Oregon
Arizona State won last week, so it might seem unfair to drop them three spots, but I just don't feel the same way about this team anymore. A win over USC this weekend might help me find that lovin feelin again.
12 – USC (8-2)
Key Wins: Cal
Loss(es): Stanford, Oregon
USC has almost the exact same resume as Arizona State, aside from the embarrassing loss to Stanford, so it's fitting that they meet this weekend. Oh, and they have hot cheerleaders (See: excuse to run this photo)
13 – Texas (9-2)
Key Wins: Texas Tech
Loss(es): Kansas State, Oklahoma
Texas continues to win after its early season miscues, and with only one game left(Texas A&M), the Longhorns are running out of time to screw things up again.
14 – Tennessee (7-3)
Key Wins: Georgia, Mississippi St, Arkansas
Loss(es): Cal, Florida, Alabama
Tennessee earned some measure of respect in dominating Darren McFadden and the Arkansas Razorbacks. Tennessee seems to be a team that either blows you out, or gets blown out. Only one game (South Carolina - OT) has been decided by less than two touchdowns.
15 – Clemson (8-2)
Key Wins: Florida State, Wake Forest
Loss(es): Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech
Talk about turning on the jets at the right time. Clemson has scored 30 or more points in its last four game while allowing 17 or less in that same span. A win against Boston College ensures a spot in the ACC Championship.
16 – Illinois (8-3)
Key Wins: Penn State, Wisconsin, Ohio State
Loss(es): Missouri, Iowa, Michigan
Illinois boasts an impressive Big Ten resume. Granted, that doesn't carry as much weight this year as it has in the past, but 3 for 4 against the big time programs (Penn St, OSU, Wisconsin, UMich) is hard to ignore. With Juice Williams and Rashard Mendenhall returning next year, the Illini should be a Big Ten favorite.
17 – Boise State (9-1)
Key Wins: Fresno State
Loss(es): Washington
Boise State shut out Utah State, which makes sense, since Utah State has also been shut out of the win column this year. I probably have Boise State too high, but I don't feel like adjusting this anymore.
18 – Virginia (9-2)
Key Wins: Georgia Tech, UConn, Wake Forest
Loss(es): Wyoming, NC State
Virginia is getting a lot of love after blanking Miami in the last game at the Orange Bowl. I still see the team that has managed to win six games by five points or less. Sure, they deserve credit for pulling out the close ones, but one or two bounces the other way and no one is talking about Virginia.
19 – Cincinnati (8-2)
Key Wins: Rutgers, South Florida, UConn
Loss(es): Louisville, Pitt
Back in the rankings after dominating UConn, Cincinnati has an even bigger test against West Virginia this weekend. Can you imagine if Cincinnati ended up in a BCS bowl? It could happen if they beat West Virginia and UConn loses to West Virginia.
20 – Michigan (8-3)
Key Wins: Penn State, Illinois
Loss(es): Appalachian St, Oregon, Wisconsin
Tough to penalize the Wolverines for the loss to Wisconsin when Henne and Hart did not play, who were obviously being rested for the deciding Big Ten game against the Buckeyes, but I will a little bit.
21 – Kentucky (7-3)
Key Wins: Arkansas, LSU
Loss(es): South Carolina, Florida, Mississippi State
After managing to squeak by Vanderbilt, Kentucky is still in position to win the SEC East. As I said last week, though, not gonna happen. They need to knock off Georgia and Tennessee to reach the promised land.
22 – Boston College (8-2)
Key Wins: Wake Forest, Virginia Tech
Loss(es): Florida State, Maryland
Another week, another loss to an unranked foe. Some redemption could be in order as they travel to play at Clemson in what should decide the ACC Atlantic Division champion.
23 – Hawaii (9-0)
Key Wins: Fresno State
Loss(es): None
Hawaii struggled but still won when Colt Brennan was knocked out of last week's game. They are still in position to impress with games against Boise State and Washington. To be honest, Boise State will be a tougher matchup than Pac-10 also-ran Washington.
24 – Auburn (7-4)
Key Wins: Florida, Arkansas
Loss(es): South Florida, Miss St, LSU, Georgia
The Tigers were embarrassed at Georgia last week. Perhaps they were intimidated by the "black-out" but whatever the case may be, Auburn has two weeks to re-group for the season finale against in-state rival Alabama
25 – Penn State (8-3)
Key Wins: Wisconsin
Loss(es): Michigan, Illinois, Ohio State
Penn State waltzed by Temple and finishes up at Michigan State, who haven't been able to stop anyone on defense all year.

Also given consideration:
Wisconsin
Connecticut
Miss State
Cal
Alabama

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