Live and in Color

After prattling on and on about college basketball all year, I was finally able to go see a game live and in person this weekend. Detroit hosted the Midwest Regional Finals, so I was able to get a ticket to the Kansas-Davidson Elite Eight match-up through a Kansas alum friend of mine. Not that I would have needed the connection to get a ticket, though. The first thing I noticed upon arriving at Ford Field was the enormous amount of people ditching tickets. I’m guessing part of the reason was the fact that Ford Field holds 60K+ people (enormous for a preliminary round game) and another reason was all the Wisconsin and Georgetown fans trying to re-coup some of their losses.

Despite all the available tickets, the Kansas-Davidson game managed to set a single-game attendance record for a preliminary round tournament game. I can’t say that I’m 100% sold on the use of football stadiums for basketball games (you lose the small-gym atmosphere) but overall it was a promising preview of next year’s Final Four, which will also be hosted at Ford Field. I was also initially surprised at the large number of Davidson fans at the game. As you may have heard, the Davidson administration practically gave every single student a free trip to see their games this weekend, including the cost of tickets, travel and lodging. Not a bad deal! So maybe it wasn’t too surprising to see such a large Davidson turnout.

By the end of the game, Davidson’s play had earned them the respect of the crowd and I would estimate that roughly 80% of the crowd was pulling for the upset. Stephen Curry nearly made it happen. From the start of the game, Curry made NBA-range three pointers and acrobatic lay-ups to keep Davidson in the game. By halftime, he had accounted for over half of his team’s points. Unfortunately, that was the only moderately exciting thing that can be said about the first half. The seemingly innumerable TV timeouts killed any momentum that may have started building. Both teams appeared tense and out of sync. In fact, it took over ten minutes for either team to break double digits in scoring. The first half ended at a sloppy score of 30-28, with Kansas leading.

The second half also started off fairly slowly, but about midway through the second half the action started to pick up. The stadium erupted when Davidson took a four point lead after some white guy came off the bench and made three consecutive treys. At that point, Davidson had all the momentum, while Kansas seemed discombobulated and lacking passion. Unfortunately for Davidson, fatigue started to set in for Stephen Curry and he missed a bunch of shots down the stretch, including a number of three point attempts. While Davidson struggled, Kansas, in workmanlike fashion, battled back to take a seemingly insurmountable six point lead with one minute to go.

With time winding down, Davidson needed something special to get back into the game. After a Kansas foul sent Davidson to the line, one free throw went in to narrow the gap to five. The second missed but they were somehow able to get the rebound. After quickly kicking it out to Curry, the legend-in-the-making nailed an NBA range three pointer to put the Wildcats within two. One of the truly amazing turn of events of the tournament quickly thrust Davidson (and the crowd) back into the game, with all the pressure on Kansas. Not surprisingly, Kansas missed their next shot after trying to kill as much time off the clock as possible, leaving Davidson one last chance to make history.

I’m not sure what the designed play was supposed to be, but Curry drove it down the court and appeared to be looking for a three point shot (and the win) but he was double teamed and could not get off a shot. Stephen Curry had to dish to a teammate who heaved a desperation three that never looked close to going in - and thus ended the run of Stephen Curry and the Davidson Wildcats. They certainly earned the crowd’s respect (and mine) and it looks like Mr. Curry will be back next year to try to re-capture the same magic that catapulted a relatively unknown team into the Elite Eight.

So overall, not a bad game to go see, considering I basically got the ticket for free. I got to see history in the making (the first time all four number ones advanced to the Final Four), was part of a record-setting crowd (yey me!) and saw one of the most exciting finishes of the tournament.

With all apologies to Cinderella, now it's time to really get down to business. I can only hope that the Final Four games provide as much drama and intrigue as we've seen in the preliminary rounds.

Why do we hate?

Duke. Yankees. Red Sox. Manchester United. New England Patriots. Knicks. Notre Dame. Unless you’re a resident, an alumnus, or a bandwagon fan, those names probably conjure up a feeling that can best be described as a cross between hatred, bitterness and jealousy. Your low-budget team has been struggling to get by for most of its existence, with maybe one national championship to its name to go against umpteen sub-.500 seasons and first-round playoff/tournament exits.

Why do we hate? What is it about those pinstripes that makes everyone in the room cheer for the Mariners, A’s or whatever small-market team the Yankees happen to be playing? Why do we get so much glee from watching the Knicks toil in endless mediocrity? After your team has long been eliminated from the NIT, you keep watching each of Duke’s games, waiting and praying for an embarrassing end to Duke’s season. What is the rational explanation for wanting to see a 20 year old college student humiliated on national television?

Hatred has been on this Earth since the day Man was born. Hardly unique to sports, hatred has fueled economic growth, the spread of religion, and the formation and/or subsequent dissolution of countless nations. Hatred is borne out of fear. Fear of what is different, fear of what we don’t understand. Hatred is borne out of jealousy – we hate those who are luckier, more successful, better than us. Hatred is borne out of revenge. Someone has bested us and we hate them for it. We want to see them suffer, be humiliated, feel the pain we have felt.

Hatred is as natural as love, and the two are often intertwined, as a betrayal can easily turn feelings of love into hatred. Without hatred, there could be no love. Perhaps a bit trite, but a semblance of balance must exist in this world. Without evil, how would we know what is good? Without cold, hard winters, how could we appreciate the warmth of summer?

For many people, hatred is a way of life. This is not meant to be judgmental, just an observation. A child born in Serbia will grow up being taught the greatness of Serbia, and that neighboring Croatia is the root of all the country’s problems. The intense patriotic feeling the child experiences well into adulthood is in part borne out of a hatred for his neighbor. And certainly this example applies to the Middle East, Europe and even within our own country.

Authoritative bodies have learned to harness this hatred for ulterior motives, whether for political gains, expansion of religious ideals or even the achievement of a personal agenda. Of course, harnessing the mob mentality clearly has been used for horrific actions that I certainly don’t need to expound upon. In some cases, however, the motives are benign. A fear and hatred of communism lead the United States to engage Russia in a battle for display of technological prowess, ultimately leading to sending men to the moon. The technological developments borne from this competition continue to benefit our lives even today. The advent of satellites has immeasurably improved the world’s communication abilities, science was placed at the forefront of the nation's interests, and the country was galvanized into an effort to achieve the most that it could.

A population motivated by a common enemy can be a powerful force. Is ESPN any different? Are we being manipulated into hating? The hatred of a nearby rival can be viewed as natural, ie Springfield High football has a natural inclination to despise Shelbyville. But why hate the town, school or team that is a thousand miles away?

ESPN has to know that its over-the-top coverage of all things New York and Boston will alienate fans from other areas. But rather that stop watching, fans tune in even more, waiting for something bad to happen to these over-exposed teams. Every time Dick Vitale or Billy Packer announces a March Madness game, fans groan because of the constant lip-service paid to Duke and the ACC. But instead of watching another game, fans keep watching, just waiting for Billy Packer to rip their mid-major school so that they have even more of a reason to hate Duke and the big-time programs.

The more that ESPN builds up someone, the more we want them to fall. For Duke and the like, the only things that could conceivably be worse than missing the NCAA tournament would be if no one cared. What would happen to Notre Dame’s massive television deals if people simply stopped caring? Even when they go 3-9, people will watch every second of a crappy ND-Navy game just to see if ND will lose. The networks make money off our selfish desire to see others suffer the same agony of defeat that we have. Watching the favored elite fall can be very cathartic for fans of ordinary teams. Our own feelings of anger, shame and jealousy are released as we cheer against the elite and ultimately watch them suffer. The New England-New York Giants regular season finale had the highest ratings ever for a regular season game. Why? I guarantee you that at least half of the people watching that game (myself included) were openly rooting against the Patriots, so that they would fall short of the hallowed 16-0 mark.

I am not saying that being manipulated into hating by ESPN is a bad thing. I just think we should understand it. Having an enemy helps brings purpose to sports. As we all know, for there to be good, there must be evil. That presence of “evil” gives us a sense of purpose, a sense of being. Having a “favorite” enemy can enhance the sport-watching experience as much as having a true favorite team.

So whether you choose one of ESPN’s “pre-selected” heels or you go out and find your own, be thankful that you have that team to kick around when your own team is down in the dumps. If you really and truly hated a team, the most effective way to ultimately ruin them would be to stop watching…but what fun would that be?

Weekend Summary

Thus ends weekend #1 of March Madness. However, outside of the city of Tampa, madness was on relatively short supply. In fact, the number of upsets in Tampa was higher than the total number of upsets in the rest of the country. While the nation saw all four 12 and 13 seeds in Tampa win (Siena, Villanova, Western Kentucky, San Diego), the upsets were relatively minor in the rest of the country.

Kansas State (11) defeated USC (6), which is an upset more in terms of expectations than actual seed, as many experts had USC going as far as the Elite Eight. I had expected Wisconsin to shut down the freshman-led USC, but as it turns out they accomplished the same thing, just against a different team and a different star freshman, in K-State and Michael Beasley.

Perhaps the most significant upset thus far was Davidson slaying the figurative Goliath, in Georgetown and 7’2” Roy Hibbert. Led by relatively tiny Stephen Curry (6’3”), Davidson stormed back from a large deficit to topple the second-seeded Hoyas. Another two-seed fell, although for many the question was not if Duke would lose before reaching the Final Four, but when. West Virginia handled Duke and sent the Blue Devils packing after the first weekend for their second consecutive year.

I have to confess that I actually did not watch too many games this weekend, due to traveling and generally doing things that involved not watching basketball. And I have to say, I completely understand when people say they don’t enjoy watching college basketball. The first game I watched was Michigan State-Temple, and seeing both teams barely clear double digits midway through the first half, well let’s just say I wasn’t eager to keep watching. I watched both Tennessee games, and though the Butler game was intense and massively nerve-wracking, the amount of fouls and free throws was frustrating. Both teams shot nearly 30 free throws each, and it seemed like it was virtually impossible for a player to drive to the basket without getting fouled. I suppose when both teams are shooting are 65% from the line, fouling isn’t a bad idea, but watching almost 60 free throws nearly made me want to chuck the television out the window. Anyway, beside the two Tennessee games, I also caught the end of both Duke games. I was upset when Belmont choked away the end of that game after looking like they would pull off the upset, but at least West Virginia finished the job in the next round.

The upcoming Sweet 16 games should (generally) provide more excitement and a higher level of play. The highlight has to be Tennessee-Louisville. The winner will most likely face off against UNC for a Final Four appearance. Both Louisville and Tennessee play an exciting style of basketball and have the talent to win the whole tournament. It’s a shame they have to face off this early in the tournament. I consider both to be the best tournament teams at their respective seed. Wisconsin-Davidson will also be an interesting matchup, although Wisconsin has to be the heavy favorite. Texas-Stanford features a two and three seed. Texas is one of the most (if not the most) battle-tested teams in the tournament, with an astounding fifteen games (11-4 record) against RPI top 50 teams. While Stanford did not play a tough out-of-conference schedule, the Pac-10 was enough of a proving ground to earn the Cardinal a three seed.

As expected, all four number one seeds remain alive, and UNC and Kansas have yet to be truly tested. Both Memphis and UCLA looked a little shaky and pulled out close wins. Kansas and UCLA are theoretically beneficiaries of the Tampa upsets, since both will face 12 seeds. UNC could have its hands full with Washington State. Michigan State has performed well thus far, but I don’t see them sticking with Memphis.

[Bracket Alert – Do not continue reading if you become extremely agitated/bored when hearing about others’ brackets]

Well, as I mentioned, all four number one seeds are still alive, which means all four of my Final Four picks are still kickin’. Despite correctly picking only 9 of the Sweet 16 participants, some kind of statistical anomaly has occurred in which all of my Elite Eight picks are still alive. In a somewhat disappointing discovery, it turns out I actually picked UCLA and not Kansas, which means that my bracket will look like 50% of the population, including the Sports Guy. I’m pretty sure that having the same picks as Bill Simmons means there is no way I can win. For example, two of his Final Four picks (USC, Pitt) have already been eliminated, and as a Tennessee fan, it makes extremely nervous that he made Tennessee his other Final Four pick.

For anyone that cares, my Elite Eight consists of UNC, Tennessee, Kansas, Wisconsin, Memphis, Texas, UCLA, and Xavier. Yeah, so I didn’t take anyone outside of the top three seeds. Big whoop, wanna fight about it?? You know my Final Four picks, and I apparently have UCLA defeating Kansas in the final.

We'll see how it turns out. I may be near the bottom of the standings now, but I have a feeling I'll move up after this weekend. For what it's worth, a bracket picked purely on seed would be around the 90th percentile in ESPN's bracket challenge, which is much higher than my bracker right now.

And...Boom Goes the Dynamite!

March Madness is finally here! After putting up with months of ESPN highlights featuring hockey and NASCAR, finally something worth watching! Unlike NCAA Football, which has a two-team playoff and complicated formulas for selecting its participants, NCAA Basketball has it just about perfect. Every small conference, no-budget Division I team has the same chance of winning as the great powers. Granted, the last “mid-major” team to actually win it all was UNLV in 1990, but March Madness has seen its share of upsets and intrigue, including media darlings 11-seed George Mason and their Final Four run in 2006.

Perhaps this year is no different from years past, but the top seeds look really strong. While the two and three seeds also look strong, there is a clear delineation. I have to confess that I went with the chalk and have all four number ones in my Final Four. I usually try to avoid doing that, for two reasons:

First of all, it’s boring. Every boring schmoe out there picks all the #1 seeds to advance, so for me to win I feel like I have to do something different. And besides, it makes me feel clever when I pick that #7 seed to make the Sweet 16, or that #5 to reach the Final Four.

Of course, the second reason is simple statistics. In the history of the 64-team field (and 65 team field), at least one #1 seed has failed to make the Final Four. Even if you assume that a #1 seed has a 90% chance of winning each individual game they play, over four games that will factor to a 65% chance of making the Final Four. The overall probability of all four teams advancing to the Final Four with 65% odds is then 18%. And clearly, that is being very generous. The more realistic probabilities likely vary by round. Let’s say 98% for the first round, 80% for the second round, 75% for the Sweet 16, and 70% for the Regional Finals. Assuming those probabilities, a #1 seed has a 41% chance of advancing to the Final Four. The probability of ALL four #1 seeds advancing would then be a minuscule 2.8%. Such a probability is not so far-fetched, considering we have had 32 straight years without an all #1 seed Final Four.

Sooooo, with all that said, I’m “defying the odds” and taking all the #1 seeds. It’s still the most statistically likely scenario, as opposed to trying to find that three, four, or five seed that will inevitably crash the party. I don’t see Duke or Georgetown as much of a threat to reach the Final Four, but Texas and Tennessee have proven that they can knock off top competition. The Big East trio of Louisville, Pitt, and UConn would be the next set of potential party-crashers. In the South Region, UNC, Louisville, and Tennessee all play a similar style of offense, so whichever team’s shots are falling could win that region. Pitt has shown it can win big-time games by winning the Big East, but they may have used up all their good luck for the year with that run. UConn’s name gets tossed around a lot, and if they can somehow find a way to get past UCLA, they have a manageable path to the Final Four. Of course, UConn could just as easily get upset by Drake in the second round.

Last-minute thoughts on the regions:
South – I already mentioned that the Final Four berth will come down to UNC, Louisville, and Tennessee. Butler is a bit under-seeded and could prove to be a tough matchup for Tennessee, as their plodding half-court offense is the anti-thesis of Tennessee’s high-flying offensive machine. Mid-major sensations Winthrop and George Mason would face each other in the second round if they both find a way to advance, but I don’t see Washington State and Notre Dame slipping up.

Midwest - While I have picked Kansas to win the tournament, I see Clemson as the most dangerous team seeded outside of the top four. In fact, I would argue that they are more dangerous than all of the four seeds as well. Kansas-Clemson could be one the most exciting sweet 16 match-ups, if Clemson can get by Vanderbilt. Another team to watch is USC. As has been mentioned quite frequently, USC has the “’Melo Factor” and is hoping to ride freshman sensation OJ Mayo to a title. Honestly, I don’t see it happening, but they should be fun to watch. I expect the efficient and organized Wisconsin squad to contain OJ Mayo and advance to the Sweet 16, where Georgetown would await. I don’t believe I’d like to watch a Georgetown-Wisconsin game, with a final score probably in the range of 59-55.

South – Texas is the trendy pick for this region, but I am sticking with Memphis. Pitt has been on a roll, but can they really be expected to win the Big East AND advance to the Final Four? Michigan State has been streaky, while I can’t shake the feeling that Stanford is overrated. They may have two seven-footers, but I’m not sure if they can handle quicker teams. I could see Marquette surprising Stanford if they can work the outside shooting. However, the Regional final should come down to Texas and Memphis.

West – This region is UCLA’s to lose, and anything less that a Final Four appearance will be an enormous disappointment. Duke and Xavier are probably the weakest two and three seeds in the tournament, which means a team like Arizona or West Virginia could sneak into the Regional Final. If UCLA can get past UConn, I don’t see them losing until possibly the National Championship game.

Unfortunately, this doesn’t look like a great year for mid-majors. Butler is under-seeded and will be hard-pressed to even get out the first round. UNLV and Kent State play each other in the 8/9 game and would then face Kansas. Two other mid-majors in Drake and Western Kentucky are pitted against each other, but in a best case scenario won’t get any further than the Sweet 16. But like I said, it seems like we have this conversation every year and then someone like Davidson will make a magical run to the Regional Finals. I hope that we see another run, but most of all I’m just exciting to see some great basketball.

Friday's Action Lowdown

Okay, I suppose I can do one more day of updates. After yesterday’s bloodbath, it would be hard not to say anything. Bottom line, does anyone want to get invited to the Dance? Nearly every bubble team lost yesterday, and many of those losses were rather embarrassing. Let’s look at this list.

Embarrassing (and likely eliminating) losses:
UAB (Tulsa – RPI 105), Houston (UTEP – 93), Florida (Alabama – 102), Maryland (Boston College – 124), Ole Miss (Georgia – 137), New Mexico (Utah – 98)

It should be noted that Baylor also fell to Colorado (157), arguably the worst loss of any bubble team yesterday, but Baylor’s profile is markedly better than the rest of these teams. As such, they still have a decent chance to make the tournament. Their profile isn’t spectacular, but they do have wins over Notre Dame, Texas A&M, and Kansas State, and other than the loss to Colorado, no losses outside the top 100.

Missed Opportunities:
Arizona (Stanford), Oregon (Washington State), UMass (Charlotte), Villanova (Georgetown), Arizona State (USC), Dayton (Xavier)

Other than Massachusetts’ loss to Charlotte, all of these losses came against teams that are locks to make the tournament. A win would have been an excellent opportunity to put an exclamation point on their tournament resumes, but surprisingly, all fell short.

Staying on Track:
Kent State (Toledo – 187), Texas A&M (Iowa State – 171), UNLV (TCU – 197), St. Joe’s (Richmond - 119), Temple (La Salle – 161)

Sure, they all won, but they didn’t exactly improve their profiles. All of these teams faced opponents with RPI’s of over 100. The next round of games will definitely provide a challenge, and an opportunity to make a statement, specifically St. Joe’s and Texas A&M, against Xavier and Kansas State, respectively.

Idle:
Kansas State, Mississippi State, Virginia Tech, Ohio State, Kentucky, Arkansas

If you don’t play, you can’t lose. These teams benefited while watching their bubble competition go down in flames.

Statement Wins:
Pitt (Louisville), West Virginia (UConn), Miami (NC State)

I said earlier that these teams simply need to not embarrass themselves and they would advance. Pitt and West Virginia certainly accomplished that by knocking off Big East big dogs. Miami’s opponent was not as impressive, but even a loss to their next round opponent Virginia Tech won’t knock them out of the tournament.

With the way things are going, maybe a team like Florida State or Oklahoma State could sneak into the mix. Of course, both face off against the one seeds in their tournaments. Florida State takes on UNC and OSU faces Texas. Florida State swept Miami and beat Clemson, and they took UNC to overtime last time they played. Oklahoma State has won six of its last eight, including a win over Kansas. They’ve played Texas tough twice, although they did lose both of those games. With the sad shape of the bubble, a big win by either FSU or OSU could at least get them into the at-large discussion.

11th Hour Bubble Watch

After the first day of major conference play, the bubble is really starting to harden for a few teams. Syracuse probably sealed its fate after losing to fellow bubbler Villanova. West Virginia bolstered its chances by avoiding an embarrassing defeat to 12th seeded Providence.

As it stands, the bubble is not quite as fluid as the experts might lead you to believe. 21 bids have or will be accounted for by one-bid conferences. Another 20 teams are absolute locks, plus another five that are essentially locks.

That leaves 19 bids for the rest of the field (less if an unexpected power conference team wins an automatic bid) but 10 of those bids are likely spoken for by teams that merely need to avoid embarrassment in the first round of their tournaments. Another set of teams could clinch a bid with two wins (including UMass, Oregon and Texas A&M) but their standing is a little shakier. It’s definitely not a given that the teams in this category will survive. Throw in a couple of mid-major teams with good profiles but failed to win their conference auto-bid and that leaves ten-plus teams fighting for one last at-large bid. If Kent St. or Xavier fails to win their respective conferences, all the teams fighting for that last at-large spot will instead be fighting for a top spot in the NIT. Probably not what they had in mind…

As you may be aware, this is St. Patrick’s Day weekend. I’d love to provide daily updates on the conference tourney action (I’m only being half-sarcastic) but I’ll be in Chicago swilling green beer and pretending to be Irish for a day. So… this will probably be my last update before Selection Sunday.

Keep an eye on the Atlantic 10, SEC, and Pac 10 tournaments. I have a feeling those tournaments will have the biggest impact on bubble teams. While the Big East may be the most competitive tournament, most of the teams (aside from Villanova) know if they’ll be going to the Dance by now.

With all that said, this is how I see things at the moment:

Already In (14):
Cornell, Belmont, Winthrop, George Mason, Butler, Siena, Drake, Austin Peay, Davidson, Oral Roberts, Western Kentucky, San Diego, Portland State, Mount St. Mary’s,

Pending One-Bid Conferences (7):
America East, Big West, MEAC, Patriot League, Southland, SWAC, WAC

Absolute Locks – Major Conference AP Top 25 and/or any team within RPI Top 20 (20):
North Carolina, Duke, Kansas, Texas, Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan State, Purdue, Georgetown, Louisville, Connecticut, Notre Dame, Marquette, UCLA, Stanford, Washington State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Memphis, Xavier

Should Be Fine (5):
Gonzaga, BYU, Clemson, Oklahoma, USC

Decent Shape (7):
The pundits and/or numbers like these teams. Despite flawed profiles, they should get in, barring something embarrassing happening.
Kansas State, Baylor, Pitt, West Virginia, Mississippi State, Miami, Kent State

One More Win and They’re In (3):
Kentucky, Arkansas, Ohio State

Two More Wins To Be Safe (6):
Massachusetts, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, UNLV, Arizona, Oregon

Hoping Other Teams Slip Up (2):
St. Mary’s, South Alabama

If you’ve been keeping track, that’s 64 spots accounted for thus far, which means that the teams listed below could be competing for one spot. Of course, that assumes the previously mentioned teams will take care of business.

Praying Other Teams Slip Up (3):
Illinois State, VCU, Syracuse

Need a Deep Run (11):
Arizona State, Florida, Villanova, St. Joe’s, Dayton, Temple, Rhode Island, New Mexico, Maryland, Virginia Tech, UAB

Editors Note: After Rhode Island's first round tournament exit (its seventh loss in its last eight games) Rhode Island is officially done. The RPI of 77 and 7-9 conference record don't help, either.

Conference Tournament Preview

With the regular season now completed, attention turns to the individual conference tournaments. Usually good for one or two surprises, the conference tournaments are a great blend of competition and desperation. For a great majority of the teams still playing in the tournaments, this is win-or-go-home time. For every Duke and UNC that has a bid locked up, there is an LSU or Georgia Tech that won’t go anywhere unless it continues to win.

Let’s take a look at some of the more intriguing tournaments:

ACC – The top four teams in this conference (UNC, Duke, Clemson, Virginia Tech) get a first-round bye, and you’d have to be crazy to think that UNC or Duke won’t get to the semi-finals. Assuming that Clemson can get by Maryland (or BC) in the quarter-finals, they may prove to be a tough matchup for Duke. After all, they took UNC to overtime twice this year. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a UNC-Clemson re-match in the ACC Final.

Atlantic 10 – This is probably the most difficult conference to figure out. Certainly Xavier looks to be the favorite, but it won’t be easy for them to navigate three straight wins. Of the twelve teams in the A-10 tournament, I wouldn’t be surprised to see any one of them win it, except perhaps Fordham (11-16, 6-10). For Xavier to win, they may have to go through Dayton, St. Joe’s and Massachusetts, arguably the four toughest teams in the A-10. And don’t count out two-seed Temple, who should at least get to the semi-finals.

Big 12 – The top four teams (Kansas, Texas, Kansas State, Oklahoma) have a bye and the luxury of an extra day of rest while the other eight teams battle it out. The winner will almost certainly come from that group, although Texas A&M or Baylor could sneak into the semi-finals. Texas and Kansas have to be considered the overwhelming favorites and look likely to meet in the final.

Big East – Similar to the ACC, A-10, and Big 12, the top four teams (Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame, UConn) get a first-round bye. Unlike the Big 12, the depth of this conference means that nearly every team has at least a shot of winning the tournament. Villanova or Syracuse will both be fighting for a selection berth and could knock off top seed Georgetown in the quarterfinals. Pitt could very well take down two-seed Louisville. Marquette blew out Notre Dame earlier this year. Would an upset in the tournament be so unlikely? Expect this tournament to be exciting and hard-fought.

Big Ten – Yawn. The top four teams (Wisconsin, Indiana, Purdue, Michigan State) are the clear favorites and I would be surprised if any of them did not reach the semi-finals. My guess says the final will be Wisconsin-Indiana, but it won’t matter since the favored four have all locked up bids anyway.

Pac 10 – With the exception of Oregon State (0-18 in conference play) each team has a chance to win at least a couple of games. UCLA is the clear favorite, but could Cal surprise them in the quarterfinals? Sure. Arizona has to be considered a sleeper. With a gimme first round game against Oregon State, Arizona could surprise an overrated Stanford team in the quarters, and then Washington State or Oregon would await in the semi-final. On the other side of the bracket, a UCLA-USC semi-final is a distinct possibility.

SEC – Although Tennessee is the favorite, half of the teams have a chance to win it all. Kentucky, Florida, and Ole Miss will be playing with desperation, trying to garner of the last at-large bids. If Tennessee plays with complacency, they could find themselves out early. Three of the four potential quarterfinals could have huge at-large implications: Vanderbilt-Arkansas, Mississippi State-Florida, Kentucky-Ole Miss. Throw Tennessee in the mix and any one of those teams could win the SEC.

A few of the smaller conferences are in action today and tomorrow. Fans of bubble teams are wringing their hands after watching Gonzaga and South Alabama fall last night. However, Davidson managed to hold on and claim an auto bid. Butler goes up against Cleveland State tonight for the Horizon League automatic bid, which could be a tough game for Butler. Cleveland State already beat Butler once in January and gave them a good battle on Butler’s home court a couple of weeks ago.

Show Me the Money

NFL free agency is in full swing, although up until this weekend there had been very little movement. A few of the major signings:

Bernard Berrian signed with Minnesota for $42M
Donte Stallworth signed with Cleveland for $35M
Lance Briggs re-signed with Chicago for $36M
Former Bengals DE Justin Smith signed with San Fran for $45M
Michael Turner signed with Atlanta for $34M
Asante Samuel signed with Philly for $57M
Jerry Porter signed with Jacksonville for $30M
Gibril Wilson signed with Oakland for $39M

I am not the first person to come up with this observation, but let me just comment that it seems ludicrous for Bernard Berrian to have received a bigger contract than former teammate and Pro Bowl nominee Lance Briggs. Such is the premium for offense these days, I suppose. All I can say is, thanks goodness the NFL has a salary cap, or these contracts would be even more preposterous.

Consider that none of the wide receivers I mentioned (Stallworth, Berrian, Porter) has ever recorded a 1000-yard season. Sure, they’ve all been close, but are complementary receivers really going for an annual salary of $5M+? These guys can stretch the field, but are they go-to receivers? For those of you counting, that’s $100M in contracts signed by a group of receivers who have never proven they are All-Pro caliber. As a Bears fan, I recall a few of our previous leading receivers and none of them ever did anything after leaving Chicago. Remember Marcus Robinson? He put up 1400 yards in his second season but never broke 750 after that. Marty Booker had two consecutive 1000 yard seasons, but after being traded to Miami, he also never broke 750 yards in a season. And if there is a place where wide receivers go to die, it has to be Minnesota. Since Randy Moss left in 2004, no receiver has topped 700 yards, including the immortal Travis Taylor, Bobby Wade (an ex-Bear) and Troy Williamson. Maybe Bernard Berrian will break the trend, but I doubt it, especially with the likes of Tavaris Jackson lobbing the rock to him.

You can’t blame these teams for trying to improve themselves, but to me, wide receivers are one of the least important positions in football. Unless you have an absolute game-breaker like Moss, or someone as consistently excellent as Marvin Harrison, you’re probably wasting your money. As long as the guy has decent speed, can catch, and runs solid routes, he’ll give you 90% of what you’re getting out of these $30M guys. Look at Welker. Not to sing the Patriots’ praises, but he is exactly what some of these teams need. The Patriots were able to sign him for $18M over 5 years, about half the annual salary of what Bernard Berrian just received.

Without a solid offensive line and quarterback, it doesn’t matter who you line up at wideout, so why overpay? Maybe there’s a reason why Cleveland, Jacksonville and Minnesota are some of the last remaining members of the not-so-illustrious “Never Won a Super Bowl” club. Okay, maybe that’s not fair, but I think it is fair to question the signings. As always, time will tell, and it’s often better to try to do something than do nothing, but if I were a fan of one of these three teams, I wouldn’t be surprised to see another 700 yard/5 TD season out of these guys.

Bubble Watch Update

Many of the smaller conferences have wrapped up regular season play by now. The major conference teams have at most two or three games remaining. At this point, more bubble teams seem to be losing rather than winning, so picking the last couple of slots may be more an excercise in deciding who has slid less over the last month. Mid-major teams like Southern Illinois, UAB, and New Mexico could benefit if more marginal 'major conference' teams continue to perform poorly.

The Big 12, A-10, and ACC seem to be struggling at the moment, while the Big East looks like the most dominant conference. Its top five teams are virtual locks, and will likely send a total of eight teams. The SEC and Big Ten are struggling outside of the elite (Tennesee, MSU, Indiana, Wisconsin) and will likely recieve fewer bids then they are historically accustomed to seeing.

Small Conference Leaders (15)
These teams absolutely will not make the tournament unless they win their conference tourney. The current regular season leader is listed for each conference, but you can throw that out the window once you get to single elimination.

America East – MD Baltimore County (RPI: 88)
Atlantic Sun – Belmont (87)
Big Sky – Portland St. (96)
Big South – UNC Asheville (131) Winthrop and UNC Asheville finished the Big South regular season tied for first after UNC Asheville beat Winthrop on the road, with Asheville having the slight RPI edge.
Big West – Cal St. Northridge (103)
Ivy League – Cornell (68)
MEAC – Morgan St (124)
Metro Atlantic – Siena (79)
Northeast – Robert Morris (110) After finishing the season on a 13 game win streak, Robert Morris was finally able to catch and pass Wagner and Sacred Heart in the final regular season standings.
Ohio Valley – Austin Peay (91)
Patriot League – American (101)
Southland – Lamar (133)
Summit League – Oral Roberts (65)
SWAC – Alabama St. (218)
WAC – Boise St. (98)

Small Conference Leaders who actually do have a chance of making the final field even without winning their conference tournament (SCLWADHACOMTFFEWWTCT) (8)
Colonial – VCU (42)
Horizon – Butler (19)
MAC – Kent St . (35)
Missouri Valley – Drake (14)
Mountain West – BYU (25)
Southern - Davidson (44)
Sun Belt – South Alabama (28) Defeating Western Kentucky on the road left South Alabama in sole possession of first place, and they won their next four to clinch the regular season title.
West Coast – Gonzaga (31) The Zags move into first place after beating St. Mary’s fairly handily. However, both teams look likely to make the field.

Mid-Major At-Large (12, 4 Bids)
Probably In:
West Coast – St. Mary’s (32) With two losses in their last three games, St. Mary’s profile is perhaps not quite as strong as they’d like to be completely comfortable going into the conference tourney. Wins over Drake, Oregon, Gonzaga, and Seton Hall may come in handy if they slip.

Better Be Careful:
Mountain West – UNLV (27)
Missouri Valley – Illinois St (34) This team finished on a tear, knocking off Wright State and MVC rivals Creighton and Southern Illinois. They do have a few questionable losses, but they have a strong profile and the solid finish should put them in.
Missouri Valley – Southern Illinois (48) With so many major conference teams trying to play themselves into the NIT, maybe it’s time to give Southern Illinois a look. They did lose their home finale against Illinois State and have a total of 13 losses, but they also played one of the top ten most difficult schedules. They recorded wins over Mississippi State, St. Mary’s, Western Kentucky, and Drake.

Outside Looking In:
Sun Belt – Western Kentucky (49) With no wins over top-100 RPI teams, Western Kentucky will realistically have to win the Sun Belt tournament to make the field, despite a 22-6 record.
Missouri Valley – Creighton (50) This team has a much more consistent profile than Southern Illinois. They had only two losses outside the top 100, but no true marquee win. They beat Oral Roberts in bracket-buster play, and knocked off St. Joe’s in OT early in the season.
Conference USA – UAB (51) May get a look, but with five losses to teams outside of the top 100, the odds are long. They do have wins over Kentucky, Houston, and Cincinnati.
Mountain West – New Mexico (53)
Southland - Stephen F. Austin (61)

Thanks For Playing:
Conference USA - Houston (67) Losing to East Carolina (RPI 252) may have sealed Houston’s fate. They have only one top-100 RPI win (Kentucky), although up until the ECU loss they had only lost to tournament-worthy teams. Houston will have to win the Conference USA tournament. Just making the conference final won’t be enough.
Horizon - Wright State (71) Probably no shot to begin with, but Wright State ended its regular season with three straight losses.

Potential One Seeds (7)
C-USA – Memphis (2)
SEC – Tennessee (1)
Big 12 – Kansas (8)
Big 12 – Texas (5)
Pac-10 – UCLA (9)
ACC – Duke (4)
ACC – North Carolina (3)

A-10 (6, 2 bids)
Definitely In:
Xavier (6)

Better Be Careful:
UMass (38) Unlike most of its A-10 brethren, UMass has actually won a few games lately and is on a four game win streak. They swept Rhode Island and hold wins over Houston and Syracuse. By no means a sure bet, UMass still has a pretty good chance if they can win their final two games and make a decent conference tourney run.

Outside Looking In:
Dayton (36) Having won only four of their last twelve games, Dayton is in big trouble. They must win their final two and probably advance to the conference final to have a chance.
St. Joe’s (52) Other than sweeping UMass, St. Joe’s has done very little. Since beating Villanova, St. Joseph’s has gone 2-4, including two home defeats to mid-tier A-10 teams La Salle and St. Louis.
Rhode Island (55) This team has lost six of its last eight games. Without a true marquee win, Rhode Island may have to win the A-10 tourney to make the final field.

Thanks For Playing:
Temple (80) Not much of a chance to being with, but Temple blew any shot by losing at home to Fordham. Their overall record now stands at 15-12.

Big Ten (5, 4 Bids)
Definitely In:
Wisconsin (11)
Michigan St. (15)
Indiana (16)
Purdue (29)

Outside Looking In:
Ohio State (54) How the (not-so) mighty have fallen. Once a near-lock to make the final 65, Ohio State has lost its last four to fall to 8-8 in conference play. And despite those eight Big Ten wins, only one (Minnesota) has come over a top-100 foe. The Buckeyes can still pull it together with wins against Purdue and Michigan State in its last two games.

SEC (6, 3 bids)
Definitely In:
Vanderbilt (10)

Better Be Careful:
Mississippi State (37) 11-3 in conference play, Mississippi State is certainly benefiting from a down year in the SEC. They lack an impressive non-conference win but haven’t lost to a team outside the RPI top 100.
Arkansas (39) Beating Vanderbilt stopped the Razorback’s recent slide, but they aren’t out of trouble yet. A win at Ole Miss on Tuesday could make their bid a sure thing.

Outside Looking In:
Ole Miss (45)
Kentucky (59) It’s looking more and more like Kentucky is starting to find itself as a team. They may have over-extended themselves early in the season, but hold a 10-3 conference record.
Florida (62) Losing at home to Mississippi State hurts a reeling Florida profile. Their conference record is decent (8-6), but only two of those wins came against top-100 SEC teams. Florida has a chance to improve its profile with Tennessee and Kentucky on the schedule this week.

Big East (11, 8 Bids)
Definitely In:
Georgetown (7)
UConn (13)
Notre Dame (20)
Marquette (18)
Louisville (15)

Probably In:
Pittsburgh (23) Probably not in the same league as the teams listed above, but winning at Syracuse may have given Pitt some separation from the rest of the Big East field.

Better Be Careful:
West Virginia (41)
Syracuse (57)

Outside Looking In:
Villanova (63)
Seton Hall (73)

Big 12 (7, 6 bids)
Probably In:
Oklahoma (30) They don’t have a great conference record (7-7) but they did sweep Baylor and Texas Tech. Their win yesterday against Texas A&M was very much needed. Oklahoma can also fall back on its impressive non-conference wins over Arkansas, Gonzaga, and West Virginia.

Better Be Careful:
Baylor (33)
Oklahoma (34)
Kansas State (43) Suddenly not looking so great, K State has dropped its last four. Kansas State also lacks non-conference heft, with its most notable win coming against Cal. Their next two games (Colorado, Iowa St.) are relatively easy, so a failure in either one would be damaging.
Texas A&M (46) Like Kansas State, Texas A&M has hit a bit of a wall, losing four of its last five to fall to 7-7 in the Big 12. The remaining two games are very tough (at Baylor, Kansas), and a 7-9 conference record might seal their NIT fate. However, they don’t have a terrible loss, and they did beat Ohio State and Oral Roberts in non-conference play.
Texas Tech (47) These guys have to be mentioned in the same breath as Texas A&M and Kansas State now. Their RPI rankings and conference records are almost identical. Coming off of a win over Texas, Texas Tech just might be able to sneak into the final field. With its last two games at Kansas and at home against Baylor, they will be hard-pressed to keep their momentum going.

Outside Looking In:
Oklahoma State (72) Is it too late for the Cowboys? They have won five straight, including wins over Baylor, Texas A&M, and Kansas. They lack a major non-conference win, but could pull to 9-7 in the Big 12 if they can beat Oklahoma at home and Texas on the road in their last two games.
Thanks For Playing:
Missouri (99)

Pac-10 (7, 5 bids)
Definitely In:
Stanford (17)

Probably In:
Washington State (21)

Better Be Careful:
Arizona (22) Sure, they have the number one SOS, but the loss column has grown considerably. They can claim wins against Texas A&M, UNLV, and Houston, as well as a sweep against Washington State. However, their conference record is only 7-8 and two of their three remaining games will be a challenge (UCLA at home, at Oregon).
USC (40) Solid profile with non-conference wins against Oklahoma and Southern Illinois, USC probably just needs to win one of its last two (Stanford, Cal) to be sure of a bid. Will the opening home loss to Mercer (RPI 315) come back to haunt them?
Arizona State (66) Not playing very well as of late, but if they can beat Oregon and Oregon State to finish the season, they will have a 10-8 Pac-10 conference record. They swept Arizona and have wins over Stanford, USC, and an impressive non-conference win over Xavier.

Outside Looking In:
Oregon (60)

Thanks For Playing:
Cal (94) 6-10 conference record says it all.

ACC (9, 3 Bids)
Probably In:
Clemson (24)

Better Be Careful:
Miami (26) One of the few ACC teams trying to play its way into the tournament, not out of it. Non-conference wins over Mississippi State and VCU are looking better and better. Despite the early season ACC slump, Miami could end up at 9-7, with two winnable games coming up this week.
Maryland (51)

Outside Looking In:
Virginia Tech (56)
Florida State (69) No chance in hell right now, but if they win their last two (at UNC, Miami) then maybe they’ll be a marginal candidate.
Wake Forest (84) Since beating Duke, Wake has lost its last three. The home win over BYU is the only win worth mentioning in a pretty soft non-conference schedule. If they win their last two, Wake can get to 8-8 in the ACC, but that might not be enough.

Thanks For Playing:
Georgia Tech (77) Two for their last eight, and the last home loss to Wake Forest was especially damaging. If they run the table, they’ll still only have an 8-8 conference record. Oh, and they currently have a 12-15 record.
NC State (85) Losing seven in a row tends to bring down the tournament profile a bit.
Boston College (112) See above description. Boston College has only won four games in the year 2008.

Last Four In:
Texas Tech
Arizona State
Southern Illinois
Maryland

Last Four Out:
Florida
Ohio State
Virginia Tech
Dayton

Total Bid Allocation:
ACC - 5
Atlantic 10 - 2
Big East - 8
Big Ten - 4
Big 12 - 8
Missouri Valley - 3
Mountain West - 2
Pac 10 - 6
SEC - 4
WCC - 2