Let the annual playoff talk begin. This year’s BCS is headed towards perhaps its worst result since its inception. To be fair, this really isn’t the fault of the BCS. No team has stepped up to the plate and truly laid claim to a rightful spot in the BCS Championship. Unlike in previous years, we have no dominant teams (see: USC/Texas 2005) that clearly deserve to be number one or number two, head and shoulders over the competition.
In reality, we have one undefeated team, four teams with one loss, and nine two-loss teams. You could make compelling arguments for a good percentage of those teams, as well as arguments against each of them. The BCS can only truly work when the chips fall perfectly into place, ie two teams that clearly deserve to play for title actually do play for the title. When you have three or more deserving teams, one will get the shaft, like undefeated Auburn in 2004. No non-playoff system will ever solve that problem.
Sometimes we forget that the BCS really is an improvement over the old system, when airtight bowl allegiances did not allow conference champions from the Pac-10 and Big Ten to play bowl games against other conference foes, the SEC Champion always played in the Sugar Bowl, and so on and so forth. This often led to split national titles and produced bowl games that left fans wondering ‘what if…’ However, I sincerely doubt that you could find a single person who believes that the BCS is perfect, or that it is even the best available solution.
I will admit I have waffled a bit on the playoff debate. I used to be 100% for a playoff system, but this year I started thinking otherwise. The regular season really is special in college football. Not to say that it isn’t in other sports, but regular season college football seems to carry a bit of added mystique. Once you lose, you are essentially eliminated from contention. As this season has progressed, we have seen that come to light, as team after team (South Florida, Boston College, Kansas) has been a contender and then just as suddenly fallen. You could argue that the current system works as a de facto playoff.
The one problem with this is the assumption that eventually a team will step up and prove it deserves to be number one. My biggest complaint is that Ohio State, who lost its second-to-last game, is a better-than-50% bet to play in this year’s National Championship, considering that number one Missouri is a three point ‘dog to Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship. If the regular season truly worked as de facto playoff system, there is no way Ohio State would still be alive. True, this problem has popped up before in the BCS, with 2003 Oklahoma losing in its conference championship and still making the BCS Championship (and summarily getting blown out) and 2001 Nebraska losing its season finale and still playing for the national title. But that does not make it right.
Let’s break down the top title contenders:
Undefeated:
Hawaii – Currently ranked 12th in the BCS, Hawaii has zero shot at making the BCS Championship. Their schedule has been knocked, and deservedly so. Of course, Hawaii had originally been scheduled to play Michigan, but the Wolverines backed out at the last minute. Michigan’s new opponent: Appalachian State. Nice work, Big Ten. The truth is, though, that none of the big boys want to play Hawaii. The bottom line is that Hawaii is the only team in the nation to not lose a game. How can you argue against that?
One-loss teams:
Missouri – Currently number one in the BCS, Missouri needs only to knock off Oklahoma to reach the title game. How much sense does it make, though, when the number one team in the nation is the underdog on a neutral field? Basically, Missouri is number one because no one else is. They do have two victories over top 15 teams in Illinois and Kansas, but were convincingly defeated in their prior game against Oklahoma.
West Virginia – West Virginia has looked solid this year, but their schedule is not quite as tough as some of the other contenders. All of West Virginia’s wins except two (Louisville, Cincinnati) have come by at least 17 points. A bit of a question mark, but they would certainly present a tough matchup for anyone in the field right now.
Kansas – What to make of Kansas? Their biggest win is Texas A&M, which isn’t saying much, but they did manage to make it through the season with only one loss, to rival Missouri. Kansas showed heart in coming back against Missouri but ultimately fell short. That loss should eliminate them from title contention, but it would be interesting to see how they stack up against the other contenders.
Ohio State – Winners of the Big Ten, almost by default, Ohio State finished an unexpected 11-1. The Buckeyes did not garner a significant victory all year, but the closest they came was either the win over struggling Michigan or PJ Hill-less Wisconsin. Like West Virginia, Ohio State dominated against a weaker schedule, winning 9 of 11 games by 16 points or more. However, the late loss to Illinois (Ohio State’s toughest opponent) is hard to ignore.
Two-loss teams:
Georgia – Arguably the hottest teams in college football right now, the Bulldogs hold victories over two top 25 BCS teams (Florida, Auburn) and have been a team on a mission since the demolition at Neyland Stadium. Of course, you can’t ignore that loss, or the early loss to South Carolina, but the ‘Dawgs have the best argument of any two-loss team. Also, they haven’t lost since October 6th, which few teams can claim, including Missouri, Kansas and Ohio State.
LSU – LSU had two shots at being number one and blew it both times. The Tigers probably peaked after blowing out Virginia Tech and appear to have been holding on for dear life ever since. To their credit, both losses have come against respectable opponents in overtime, and like Georgia, LSU has beaten both Florida and Auburn. Winning the SEC could garner LSU some additional votes.
Oklahoma – I’m willing to give Oklahoma a mulligan for the Texas Tech loss, since they lost their star QB in that game, but the Colorado loss is another story. The Sooners have looked less than impressive in several of their victories as well. On the flip side, Oklahoma has beaten number one Missouri and will have the chance to do it again. Win that game (and the Big 12), and Oklahoma deserves to be mentioned as a top contender.
Virginia Tech – Unless they beat Boston College, forget about them. They were blown out by LSU and lost to BC. They do have a couple of impressive wins in Clemson and Virginia, but the ACC Championship game will determine whether they are a contender or an also-ran.
Boston College – See above. Boston College’s losses (Florida State, Maryland) are much worse than Virginia Tech’s, but then again they beat Virginia Tech head-to-head. BC probably does not deserve to play for the title, but could cause problems for someone in a playoff format.
USC – Certainly interesting, given USC’s recent play. The win over Arizona State was impressive, but can we really allow a team who lost to Stanford to play for the national title? Let’s see how the Trojans fare against UCLA, because I’m not 100% sure they will win that game.
Arizona State – No, thanks. They lost to the top two contenders in their conference and their best win is Oregon State, so no chance of competing for the national title.
BYU – A good story, but not a serious contender.
Boise State – Eliminated when they lost to Hawaii. No strong wins of note.
And we haven’t even mentioned Florida (three losses), who could probably beat at least half the teams in the list. With all that said, I think you can seriously consider about eight teams for the National Championship: Hawaii, West Virginia, Ohio State, Missouri/Oklahoma winner, Georgia, USC, Virginia Tech/Boston College winner, and LSU (if they beat Tennessee convincingly). And maybe Kansas, depending on how this weekend goes for the other teams involved. Except for the unknown Hawaii factor, I think any team in this list would have a chance.
Would it really be so difficult to arrange an eight team playoff? The rest of the field could still go to their same crappy Outback bowls. The Rose, Sugar, Fiesta and Orange Bowls could host the first round of the playoffs, and only three additional games would be required. Or two, if you consider that we already have a separate BCS Championship bowl game. I think that the March Madness selection process should be the model for selecting the eight participants, considering such factors as computer rankings, schedule strength, and recent form. Leaving the selection up to just a computer rankings system (like the BCS) would never work, we need to have human judgment evaluate who is and is not deserving.
There has been some talk of going to a “plus one system” but I don’t trust the BCS to handle that scenario. The general proposal would be to have the top four teams play two games and then have the two winners face off for the National Championship. But who decides the top four? Straight BCS rankings? Teams like Hawaii would still be left out. With parity increasing across college football, I’m not sure that having essentially a four team playoff is drastic enough. Plus, teams like Ohio State would continue to benefit as they sit idly (and rise) while other teams risk defeat in conference title games.
Based on current BCS rankings and Vegas’ projected outcomes for this weekend, the field would look something like this:
1.) West Virginia vs 8.) Hawaii
2.) Ohio State vs 7.) USC
3.) Georgia vs 6.) Oklahoma
4.) Virginia Tech vs 5.) LSU
Those would be some interesting matchups. Food for thought…
1.) Missouri (11-1)
Key Wins: Illinois, Texas Tech, Kansas
Loss(es): Oklahoma
Welcome to the top, Missouri. Don’t get comfortable, though. Missouri is the underdog headed into the Big 12 Championship against Oklahoma. Missouri clinches a spot in the BCS Championship game with a win.
2.) WVU (10-1)
Key Wins: Rutgers, Cincinnati, Connecticut
Loss(es): South Florida
All that stands between West Virginia and the BCS Championship Game is pesky Pitt. I doubt that West Virginia will have any trouble getting amped for this rivalry game.
3.) Georgia (10-2)
Key Wins: Florida, Auburn, Kentucky
Loss(es): South Carolina, Tennessee
On the outside looking in for both the SEC and the National Championship, Georgia should at least claim a spot in the BCS as an at-large. A minor miracle would be required to vault the ‘Dawgs into the BCS title game.
4.) LSU (10-2)
Key Wins: Virginia Tech, Florida, Auburn
Loss(es): Kentucky, Arkansas
After suffering another overtime loss, LSU will miss out on the National Championship. Perhaps Les Miles can now focus on more important things, like the Michigan job, or, you know, the SEC Championship game.
5.) Kansas (11-1)
Key Wins: None
Loss(es): Missouri
Kansas fought hard but came up short against bitter rival Missouri. The Jayhawks should still be rewarded with a BCS bid, but won’t challenge for the national title. Given Kansas’ history, fans should be plenty satisfied with this outcome.
6.) Florida (9-3)
Key Wins: Tennessee, Kentucky, Florida State
Loss(es): Auburn, LSU, Georgia
Tim Tebow gave another Heisman performance and Florida walked all over Florida State. The polls aren’t showing the Gators the same kind of love that I am, but I still feel the Gators are deserving of this rank.
7.) Ohio State (11-1)
Key Wins: Penn State, Wisconsin, Michigan
Loss(es): Illinois
Ohio State was idle last week, and will be this weekend as well, but don’t be surprised to see the Buckeyes move into the BCS Championship should Missouri or WVU lose. Oklahoma and Pitt flags will be flying all across Ohio.
8.) Oklahoma (10-2)
Key Wins: Texas, Missouri
Loss(es): Colorado, Texas Tech
Win and Oklahoma is likely headed to the Fiesta Bowl. Lose, and they could end up in the Holiday Bowl. Oh, and a win knocks Missouri out of the National Championship game.
9.) Virginia Tech (10-2)
Key Wins: Clemson, Florida State, Virginia
Loss(es): LSU, Boston College
Virginia Tech will have a chance to avenge its earlier loss to Boston College, with the ACC Championship and BCS bowl berth hanging in the balance.
10.) USC (8-2)
Key Wins: Oregon St, Cal, Arizona State
Loss(es): Stanford, Oregon
Last year, UCLA knocked off USC. Can the Bruins do it again? Under a very unlikely set of circumstances, UCLA could get to the Rose Bowl, starting with a win over USC. I don’t think that is going to happen, but we’ve seen crazier things…
11.) Boston College (10-2)
Key Wins: Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Clemson
Loss(es): Florida State, Maryland
As mentioned with Virginia Tech, this ACC Championship game is for all the marbles. Matt Ryan has been impressing Heisman voters once again, so who knows? Maybe he could vault himself back into contention with a thorough beating of Virginia Tech.
12.) Tennessee (9-3)
Key Wins: Georgia, Arkansas, Kentucky
Loss(es): Cal, Florida, Alabama
In one of the most thrilling games in recent memory, Tennessee just barely survived against Kentucky, keeping the nation’s longest streak against a single opponent intact. I counted at least three times that I had internally resigned myself to the fact that Tennessee would lose, only to see the Vols miraculously stay alive. Tennessee will need a little more luck if they hope to knock off LSU and win the SEC.
13.) Illinois (9-3)
Key Wins: Penn State, Wisconsin, Ohio State
Loss(es): Missouri, Iowa, Michigan
With their regular season finished, the Illini are only waiting to find out what bowl they will go to.
14.) Hawaii (11-0)
Key Wins: Boise State
Loss(es): None
With the win over Boise State, Hawaii has proven that it has a solid team and will likely get to showcase its talent against the best the SEC has to offer in the Sugar Bowl. Quite frankly, I’m a little nervous about their crazy passing schemes.
15.) Clemson (9-3)
Key Wins: Florida State, Wake Forest, South Carolina
Loss(es): Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, BC
Clemson knocked off South Carolina to help ease the pain of the come-from-ahead loss to Boston College. The season will still be viewed with some level of disappointment as another Clemson season ends without a title of any kind.
16.) ASU (9-2)
Key Wins: Oregon St, Cal, UCLA
Loss(es): Oregon, USC
Arizona State was thoroughly outclassed by USC and unfortunately ends the season on a bit of a down note with losses to their two chief competitors, Oregon and USC. ASU still has a shot at the Pac-10 crown if UCLA knocks off USC.
17.) Texas (9-3)
Key Wins: Texas Tech
Loss(es): Kansas State, Oklahoma, Texas A&M
Finally! It was only a matter of time until Texas showed their true colors. What does it say about the Big 12 that it took this long for someone to knock them off? Granted, they didn’t face Missouri or Kansas, but Texas somehow managed to scrape together a nine win season without beating anyone of consequence.
18.) Oregon (8-3)
Key Wins: Michigan, USC, Arizona State
Loss(es): Cal, Arizona, UCLA
You have to feel for this team. They have been completely shell-shocked since Dennis Dixon went down and were blanked by a mediocre UCLA squad. Perhaps the Ducks were a tad overrated with Dixon, but his impact is crystal clear. Without him, Oregon is barely a top 25 team.
19.) Cincinnati (9-3)
Key Wins: Oregon St, South Florida, UConn
Loss(es): Louisville, Pitt, West Virginia
Cincinnati’s regular season is complete. Having just accepted a bid to the prestigious papajohns.com bowl, the Bearcats will not have to deal with the stress of waiting to learn which bowl they will make..
20.) South Florida (9-3)
Key Wins: Auburn, West Virginia
Loss(es): Rutgers, Connecticut, Cincinnati
South Florida ended its season on a positive note and will play in this year’s Sun Bowl, earning their first ever bowl appearance. South Florida will face off against a Pac-10 opponent, perhaps Oregon.
21.) Virginia (9-3)
Key Wins: UConn, Wake Forest
Loss(es): Wyoming, NC State, Virginia Tech
Virginia played decently in a respectable loss to Virginia Tech, which indicates that maybe Virginia was more good than lucky this season, despite being on the lucky end of so many close games.
22.) Auburn (8-4)
Key Wins: Florida, Arkansas
Loss(es): South Florida, Miss St, LSU, Georgia
Auburn improved its bowl position with a hard-fought victory over Alabama in the annual Iron Bowl. Auburn will never be confused with an offensive juggernaut, but they get the job done with defense and tough running.
23.) Arkansas (8-4)
Key Wins: Mississippi State, LSU
Loss(es): Alabama, Kentucky, Auburn, Tennessee
Behind the amazing Mcfadden, Arkansas trampled all over LSU’s vaunted defense and ruined the SEC’s hope of taking home a National Championship. The Heisman race could likely come down to Tim Tebow and Darren McFadden. For all the great players that have come out of the SEC, the conference hasn’t won a Heisman since Danny Wuerffel in 1996.
24.) Texas Tech (8-4)
Key Wins: Texas A&M, Oklahoma
Loss(es): OK State, Missouri, Colorado, Texas
They knocked off Oklahoma two weeks ago, but are too inconsistent to be a national threat. They sure are a fun team to watch, though. Freshman receiver Michael Crabtree will be a force over the next two or three years.
25.) BYU (9-2)
Key Wins: Arizona, Air Force
Loss(es): UCLA, Tulsa
I guess.
Others given consideration:
Wake Forest
Wisconsin
Oregon State
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