College Football Bowl Update

Now that we've gotten all the sub-par games out of the way, we can finally focus on some games worth watching. The Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl should be the best available game today. Although likely to be low scoring, plenty of talent will be on display.

A few interesting observations from last week:

The Mountain West is a surprising 4-0 in bowl competition so far and could go 5-0 if Air Force knocks off Cal. Even if Air Force loses, the MWC will still be the odds-on favorite to win the Bowl Challenge. The SEC is also 2-0 and will be favored in 5 of 7 remaining games.

Perhaps my memory is a little fuzzy but it seems like the bowls have always produced several surprising upsets. Some teams come in motivated while others show up disappointed. However, the only upset we've seen so far is East Carolina over Boise State, and perhaps Mississippi State over UCF. I don't see any upset possibilities today, with the exception of Air Force over Cal. Cal is currently a 4.5 point favorite, but at 6-6 and losers of six of their last seven, I don't know that Cal deserves to be favored over anyone. It should interesting to see how Florida State performs against Kentucky, given that about a third of their team has been suspended. The line has gone from Kentucky -3 to Kentucky -7 since the suspensions were announced.

Keep your eye on a couple of New Year's Day games. Michigan-Florida will be a high scoring affair, and I hope to see Tebow run roughshod all over Michigan, much like Dennis Dixon did. Everyone will be anxious to see how Hawaii plays against its first BCS opponent, Georgia. I expect Georgia's D to put the clamps on Colt Brennan, but I think the game will produce some fireworks.

Bonus: NFL observations

How the heck is Seattle 10-6? Oh yeah, they play Arizona, San Fransisco and St. Louis twice a year. In a sixteen game season, Seattle somehow managed to play only three teams with a winning record, going 1-2 in those games. I think Washington should be favored in that playoff game, although it looks like Seattle is an early four point favorite.

Congrats Tom Brady and the Pats. It will be that much sweeter for the rest of us when lose your first playoff game.

Tough luck, Browns. Nice finish, though. After starting 2-3, Cleveland was able to go 8-3 over its last eleven games and finished with a record equal to or better than four NFC playoff teams.

Sippin' on some Hater-ade

Adrian Peterson? Yeah, he's a shoe-in for NFL Rookie of the Year, but come on...The press has been all over this guy like the second coming of Eric Dickerson. Even now, media types claim that "if Adrian Peterson hadn't missed those two games, he would have broken Eric Dickerson's rookie record (1808) for sure!" Considering that he currently has 1305 yards, it's a pretty big leap to assume that he would have gotten 500 yards in those two games plus this weekend's upcoming game. Sure, the guy's good, but he has only broken 100 yards five times this season. In fact, he barely has over 100 yards in his last three games combined, including a 14 carry, 3 yard performance at San Fran. Yep, that's a .2 rushing average. Adrian Peterson will be great, but let's not annoint him just yet.

Tom Brady? Sure, he's got three Super Bowl rings, dates the hottest chicks and has led his team to a 15-0 record (basically the NFL version of Derek Jeter) but aren't we giving him a little too much credit? He plays behind a fantastic offensive line and works within a great offensive scheme. Let's look at his last four games: Three out of four games with under a 55% completion percentage and a QB rating of less than 80. I think the Patriots will win and go 16-0, but I'm stating here that the Patriots will not make it to the Super Bowl.

Ohio State? Ha, just kidding, this one is way too easy.

Boston Celtics? Okay, they have basically one of the greatest trios to ever grace a basketball court, but I'm not 100% sold. Team USA used to think it was a good idea to throw together a bunch of superstars. It's easy when the team is winning, but a few losses and how will these egos handle it? The Celtics may have a 23-3 record, but are only 5-2 against teams with records of at least two games over .500, which surprisingly includes the Hawks. Throw in the OT loss to Cleveland and suddenly that record doesn't look so great. And what happens when Pierce or Ray Allen gets injured? These guys are getting older (all over 30) so they may not have as much gas when the end of the season rolls around.

Bowl Season: Let us feast!

After a three week hiatus, college football swings into action once again, starting tomorrow with the highly anticipated San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl. Two renowned powerhouses in Navy and Utah will lay it on all the line for the Magic Poinsettia. Or whatever trophy the bowl committee gives out…

Okay, so pretty much no one will be watching that game except alums of those schools and people with nothing better to do on a Thursday night. And of course, gamblers. Money is really the reason people watch these crappy second (maybe third) tier games. There are an astonishing 32 bowls scheduled for this year. Aside from the Championship, all of these games fall within a two week window. Perhaps even more amazing is the fact these games have been scheduled in such a fashion that one could watch almost every single one of them in their entirety, with very few exceptions.

On December 28th, viewers will be forced to choose between watching the Texas Bowl (Houston v TCU) and the Emerald Bowl (Oregon State v Maryland), starting at 8:00 and 8:30 respectively. It should be noted the four teams participating in these two games have a combined nineteen losses, but hey, why not give these guys another opportunity to increase that total? December 28th, however, is a Friday, so I am guessing that ratings will not exactly go through the roof for either of these games, especially the Texas Bowl, which will only be shown on the NFL Network.

December 31 presents the next viewing challenge for college football fans. The starts are staggered so that viewers will at least be able to watch at least a half of most of the games. The Armed Forces Bowl kicks off at 12:30 (Air Force v Cal), so we can all watch at least until halftime. At 2:00, viewers will have to decide between watching the second half of that game and switching to one of two other games: Roady’s Humanitarian Bowl (Fresno State v Georgia Tech) and the Sun Bowl (South Florida v Oregon). The Music City Bowl (Kentucky v Florida State) kicks off at 4:00, the Insight Bowl (Oklahoma State v Indiana) kicks off at 6:30, and the final game of the night, the Peach Bowl (Clemson v Auburn) kicks off at 7:30.

January 1 is the final viewing decision day. The Cotton Bowl (Missouri v Arkansas) kicks off at 11:30. Viewers will once again be able to watch the first half before having to decide between the Capital One Bowl (Michigan v Florida) and the Gator Bowl (Virginia v Texas Tech).

So basically, you, as a college football fan, will be able to watch every game in its entirety except one on December 28, three on December 31, and 1 ½ on January 1. Assuming that each game lasts for three and a half hours, you could theoretically spend roughly 93 hours watching football over the next two week, or close to four days. I recommend that you grab a few cases and several dozen wings before embarking upon this journey. Enjoy!

Never mind that I only have a true (read: non-monetary) interest in about ten of the games…

One of the main interests that fans have in the bowl games is watching how teams from their conference perform. For example, as a Tennessee fan I generally root against Alabama and Florida. However, put Florida against a Big Ten team and I become a Gator fan. I am tired of listening to Big Ten shenanigans about how their conference is superior to the SEC, so I am hoping that this year will go a long way towards proving that. The Big Ten and SEC usually only play a handful of bowl games against each other. This year there are three such matchups, and the SEC is favored in all three. LSU and Florida are clear favorites over Ohio State and Michigan, and Tennessee is a slight favorite over Wisconsin.

In looking at the current Vegas lines for the bowl games, it could end up being a very disappointing bowl season for the Big Ten. Out of eight bowl participants, only two are favored: Purdue over Central Michigan and Penn State over Texas A&M. Not surprisingly, the SEC is favored in six of its nine contests. One conference to look out for in this year’s Bowl Challenge Cup, given to the conference with the highest winning percentage in at least three bowl games, is the Mountain West. MWC teams are currently favored in 4 out of 5 games. Other conferences looking good are the ACC (5/8), Big 12 (5/8), and Big East (3/5). It is probably safe to write off the MAC, WAC and Conference USA, who are only favored in a combined three out of ten games.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I still need to fill out my bowl picks...

Dream Deferred

This season, the NFL has finally achieved its dream: Parity. Sixteen of the NFL’s 32 teams are within three games of .500. With three games left in the season, only eight teams have officially been eliminated from the playoffs (although it’s pretty much over for 5-8 Cincinnati) and, you guessed it, the remaining eight teams have essentially locked up playoff spots.

Of last year’s twelve playoff teams, six will likely not be making a return trip to the postseason, including Chicago, the NFC’s Super Bowl representative. Two 4-12 finishers from last year (Tampa and Cleveland) are currently projected to make the playoff field. Three of last year’s AFC playoff teams (Kansas City, Baltimore and New York) have already been eliminated from the playoff hunt and stand at no better than 4-9.

Only a total of nine teams have failed to make the post-season in the last three years, and only four (Arizona, Buffalo, Detroit, Houston) have failed to make the playoffs this century. For comparison’s sake, Major League Baseball is a little more dynastic, as twelve teams have not qualified for the post-season over the last three years. Of those twelve, nine have not made the playoffs this century. Granted, there are fewer available post-season slots, but the difference is noticeable.

However, given the increasing level of parity, how impressive does that make the New England Patriots look? And perhaps more (un)impressively, how about the Miami Dolphins? These teams clearly did not get the memo on NFL parity. While 0-13 Miami currently holds the fourth longest NFL playoff drought, the Patriots are one Super Bowl win away from creating a dynasty. New England won three Super Bowls over the 2001-2004 seasons and are looking to add a fourth this year. Only three of New England’s wins this year have come by less than seventeen points, and they have been held to under 30 points only twice. Meanwhile, only four New England opponents have put up more than 20 points.

On the flip side, given the number of average (mediocre) teams in this era, it is hard to believe that a team could actually go winless. It is interesting to note that, of the Dolphins thirteen losses, six have come by exactly three points. You would think that one of those games would go the Dolphins’ way sooner or later. Who knows, in Bizarro World, the Dolphins could be 6-7 and still fighting for that last playoff spot. Of course, of the Dolphins seven other losses, six were arguably blowouts. So maybe they really are that bad, and were lucky to even get close in their three-point losses.

Things don’t get any easier for Miami. This weekend, the Dolphins will face an angry Baltimore team riding a seven game losing streak of their own. Miami is currently listed as three point home underdogs. I personally hope to see Miami lose this game so next week they can face a (hold for daunting, spooky music) undefeated New England team. Talk about two worlds colliding.

I don’t have the facts verified, but I’m fairly confident that a team has never gone undefeated this long at the same time another team has gone winless. I’m even more confident that two such teams have never faced each other. I can only imagine what the Vegas line will be on this game. 30 points? No matter what happens, this will make for killer television, and I’d much rather watch a 14-0 team run over an 0-14 team than watch two 5-7 teams cling to faint playoff hopes.

Hopefully, I don’t jinx things and ruin the possibility of such a historic event. Call me old-fashioned, but I think it’s good to have great teams for an extended period of time. If teams can’t compete, too bad for them. For reasons that may never be clear, Arizona and Detroit continue to be the laughingstock of the NFL. It is on them (and only them) to fix their teams instead of hoping to get lucky with high draft picks and poaching players from better but more salary-cap strapped teams.

How satisfying is it to follow a team for years, and then once it finally seems that they are on the rise, the mirage disappears and they fall back down to earth? Then the three year cycle starts over. Take the Bears, for example. Stifling defense and a power running attack propelled the Bears back to the Super Bowl. The Bears are back! But wait, this year the Bears are but one of a dozen middling teams with no real identity. I think the fans deserve more than this Communist, lottery-like system. Congratulations…Tampa Bay! This year you get to go to the Super Bowl! We’ll see you again in three years…

In trying to satisfy everyone, the only thing that can be sure is that no one will end up satisfied. Give me the Patriots and their dominance. Give me the Colts and Peyton Manning running wild every year. Give me the Dolphins and their 0-13 record. Give me the Lions and Cardinals sucking every year. But don’t give me a lottery league.

Final Regular Season NCAA Power Rankings

With the regular college football season at a close, we have a few weeks to settle before the bowls swing into action. Without question, most of the discussion will center around the BCS, who made it, who didn't, and who will take home the national championship.

I like LSU to win it all, but even if they do win, critics will have plenty of ammunition to argue the validity of that championship. In preliminary Vegas lines, LSU is favored by 5.5 over the Buckeyes. In a voter-decided online sixteen team playoff at SI.com, it looks like Ohio State, Oklahoma, LSU and Florida are likely to advance to the semi-finals. Ohio State and LSU hold paper-thin leads over West Virginia and USC, respectively, which tells me that that public does not see Ohio State and LSU as the clear cut top two teams.

Of course, the games are decided on the field, not paper, so we'll have to hold our judgment until early January. Then let the speculation start up once again...

Here are my final rankings. Keep in mind that I am ranking teams based on which teams I feel are the best, not who has the best record. Current form holds more weight than the beginning of the season, strength of schedule must be considered, and of course some subjectivity is required to separate teams that seem equal on paper.

1.) Georgia (10-2)
Key Wins: Florida, Auburn, Kentucky
Loss(es): South Carolina, Tennessee
I had Georgia ranked third last week, and with the Missouri and WVU losses I bumped them up to number one. Unlike the media, I don't consider it a great sin that Georgia did not win its conference. The Bulldogs are likely disappointed that they did not get a chance to play for the National Championship, but a Sugar Bowl trip is a nice consolation prize.
2.) Oklahoma (11-2)
Key Wins: Texas, Missouri (twice)
Loss(es): Colorado, Texas Tech
I gave the Sooners a big bump based on their dominating performance against Missouri. When they want to, Oklahoma can beat anyone. West Virginia should prove to be a good challenge for this team.
3.) LSU (11-2)
Key Wins: Virginia Tech, Florida, Tennessee
Loss(es): Kentucky, Arkansas
LSU scored a less-than-convincing win over Tennessee and magically jumped from number 7 in the BCS to number 2. I can't argue against the Tigers' resume, but I'm not convinced they are the number two team in the country. Having a healthy Matt Flynn will certainly help.
4.) Florida (9-3)
Key Wins: Tennessee, Kentucky, Florida State
Loss(es): Auburn, LSU, Georgia
You may be asking yourselves, why is a three-loss team ranked ahead of Ohio State? Well, I consider Florida to be the better team. Two of Florida's losses came to teams listed in my top three. Florida lost to Auburn on a last second field goal, lost to LSU after they made 6/6 fourth down conversions, and did not have a healthy Tebow against Georgia. Looking at recent form, Florida is on fire, having scored forty or more in its last four games, including wins over South Carolina and Florida State.
5.) Ohio State (11-1)
Key Wins: Penn State, Wisconsin, Michigan
Loss(es): Illinois
If Ohio State had to play LSU and Georgia instead of Minnesota and Washington, would they have finished 11-1? Fair or not, I haven't seen enough from Ohio State to believe that they deserve the number one ranking that's been handed to them. Incidentally, Steve Spurrier also ranked Ohio State fifth in his final poll.
6.) Virginia Tech (11-2)
Key Wins: Clemson, Virginia, Boston College
Loss(es): LSU, Boston College
Virginia Tech was impressive in avenging its earlier loss to Boston College. A date with Kansas awaits. Interesting to note that Virginia Tech actually finished first in the BCS computer rankings, but the voters looked at the LSU blowout and never gave Virginia Tech a chance.
7.) USC (10-2)
Key Wins: Oregon St, Cal, Arizona State
Loss(es): Stanford, Oregon
USC has been talked about as one the "hottest" teams right now, but I don't see it. Yes, they were impressive in beating Arizona State, but the week before that they only scraped by Cal (who just lost to Stanford) and the week after the ASU game they struggled a bit before finally putting away UCLA.
8.) Missouri (11-2)
Key Wins: Illinois, Texas Tech, Kansas
Loss(es): Oklahoma (twice)
The Tigers were absolutely shredded by Oklahoma and went from number 1 and playing for the national title to playing in the Cotton Bowl in a few short hours.
9.) WVU (10-2)
Key Wins: Rutgers, Cincinnati, Connecticut
Loss(es): South Florida, Pitt
West Virginia's loss was even more inexplicable, losing to 4-7 Pitt. At home, no less. Sure, Pat White was injured, but that can't be an excuse in a game like this, against an opponent like Pitt.
10.) Hawaii (12-0)
Key Wins: Boise State
Loss(es): None
Hawaii finished its perfect season with an impressive comeback against Washington. Unfortunately, beating a 4-8 Pac-10 team did not provide Hawaii the opportunity to make a statement win. Otherwise, voters very well may have put Hawaii into the title game.
11.) Kansas (11-1)
Key Wins: None
Loss(es): Missouri
Kansas did not play, but I felt compelled to move them down after the team that gave Kansas its only loss was so thoroughly dominated. Kansas doesn't have a much more difficult schedule than Hawaii, so they should be glad they are going to BCS game instead of a perhaps more deserving Missouri team.
12.) Illinois (9-3)
Key Wins: Penn State, Wisconsin, Ohio State
Loss(es): Missouri, Iowa, Michigan
A lucky beneficiary of the antiquated Rose Bowl good ole boys club, Illinois is headed to Pasadena to face USC.
13.) ASU (10-2)
Key Wins: Oregon St, Cal, UCLA
Loss(es): Oregon, USC
Arizona State will face Texas in the Holiday Bowl in what should be one of the more intriguing non-BCS bowls.
14.) Boston College (10-3)
Key Wins: Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Clemson
Loss(es): Florida State, Maryland, Virginia Tech
Unfortunately for Boston College, they were unable to defeat Virginia Tech a second time and lost out on a big BCS payday. Boston College falls all the way to the ChampsSports Bowl, where they face a perennially underachieving Michigan State squad.
15.) Clemson (9-3)
Key Wins: Florida State, Wake Forest, South Carolina
Loss(es): Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, BC
Auburn awaits in the Peach Bowl. Clemson fans will wonder what could have been after another season falls just short of expectations.
16.) Tennessee (9-4)
Key Wins: Georgia, Arkansas, Kentucky
Loss(es): Cal, Florida, Alabama, LSU
Tennessee certainly had its chances against LSU, but two late Erik Ainge interceptions, one for a touchdown, doomed the Vols. Tennessee will make a second consecutive trip to the Outback Bowl.
17.) Texas (9-3)
Key Wins: Texas Tech
Loss(es): Kansas State, Oklahoma, Texas A&M
Texas will have its hands full with Arizona State in the Holiday Bowl.
18.) Cincinnati (9-3)
Key Wins: Oregon St, South Florida, UConn
Loss(es): Louisville, Pitt, West Virginia
This team probably deserved better than the papajohns.com bowl, but if they hang on to head coach Brian Kelly for a few more years, this program will only continue to improve.
19.) South Florida (9-3)
Key Wins: Auburn, West Virginia
Loss(es): Rutgers, Connecticut, Cincinnati
This program didn't even exist ten years, and now they will line up against one of the top Pac-10 teams in the Sun Bowl. Even better, they will probably be favored.
20.) Virginia (9-3)
Key Wins: UConn, Wake Forest
Loss(es): Wyoming, NC State, Virginia Tech
Virginia certainly overachieved this year, exceeding all expectations. The Cavaliers will face off against Texas Tech in the Gator Bowl. Sorry Notre Dame, you won't be seen back in the Gator Bowl for quite a few years.
21.) Auburn (8-4)
Key Wins: Florida, Arkansas
Loss(es): South Florida, Miss St, LSU, Georgia
As mentioned, Auburn will face Clemson in the Peach Bowl. The stadium should be filled with orange, and at least everyone will be cheering for the Tigers.
22.) Arkansas (8-4)
Key Wins: Mississippi State, LSU
Loss(es): Alabama, Kentucky, Auburn, Tennessee
Darren McFadden may have one last chance to put on a Razorbacks jersey, and the whole team should be excited to face off against Missouri in the Cotton Bowl. Arkansas was able to knock the number one team in the country, so they should no problems with an ex-number one, right?
23.) BYU (10-2)
Key Wins: Arizona, Air Force
Loss(es): UCLA, Tulsa
The voters seem to like BYU, and there aren't exactly alot of other quality teams out there. BYU will get a re-match against UCLA in the Las Vegas Bowl.
24.) Texas Tech (8-4)
Key Wins: Texas A&M, Oklahoma
Loss(es): OK State, Missouri, Colorado, Texas
We will see if the Oklahoma win was fluke when the Red Raiders take the field against Virginia in the Gator Bowl.
25.) UCF (10-3)
Key Wins: None
Loss(es): Texas, East Carolina, South Florida
Central Florida finished with ten wins and captured the Conference USA title. Plus, they have a guy (Kevin Smith) who has run for over 2400 yards.

Travis Henry 1, NFL 0

Congratulations, Travis Henry. You managed to beat the drug test rap, without even having to resort to the Whizzinator.

Apparently the league was not very convinced by Henry’s defense. League spokesman Greg Aiello on the case: “The defense of hair samples and lie detector tests was irrelevant and unconvincing.” So it’s not particularly clear how Henry avoided the potential year-long suspension. Perhaps the league felt that Mr. Henry’s increasingly large family would be better off with an employed patriarch.

Oh, and in case you’re curious as to why I have a Tennessee Titans Travis Henry photo and not a more recent Broncos shot, well it’s the most recent photo I could find on “The Official Travis Henry Website”. The site has a 2007 copyright date and has recent Travis Henry news, but apparently they didn’t feel it was important to update the simple fact that he had changed teams.

Post BCS Thoughts

What a fitting end to this college football season. #1 Missouri losing to Oklahoma was not a huge surprise, considering that Oklahoma was favored and had beaten the Tigers handily earlier this season, but absolutely no one could have anticipated that West Virginia would fall. Even you Buckeye and LSU fans can’t claim that you really thought this would happen.

The fallout of yet another round of upsets leaves us with an Ohio State-LSU title game and a host of disappointed teams. Georgia is likely feeling the most slighted. The Bulldogs entered the weekend ranked fourth in the BCS, watched two of the three teams ahead of them lose, and yet somehow moved down one position in the BCS and ended up fifth.

I am not saying that Georgia deserves to be in the title game in place of LSU or Ohio State (although they would certainly have a good argument) but if voters felt that LSU and/or Oklahoma was that much better than Georgia, shouldn’t they have ranked those teams higher to begin with? You can’t honestly tell me that the shaky 21-14 win over Tennessee was enough to vault LSU from 7th to 2nd in the BCS. Politicking played a huge role in that jump, and it makes me a little sick. I can certainly understand how critics of the SEC would point to the preferential treatment the conference seems to garner.

I also find it a little curious that Ohio State received a virtual pass to the Championship game while voters were tripping over themselves trying to find someone other than Georgia to play for the title. An ESPN poll (I know, not exactly the most scientific) showed that over 50% of the country does not believe that Ohio State is one of the top two teams in the country, and yet their credentials were not questioned at all when it came time to vote.

The truth is that no one knows who the two best teams are in the country right now. As I mentioned prior to this weekend’s games, it is much easier to narrow down the top eight or so teams than it is to select the top two, especially when nearly all have the same record and have suffered similarly unexpected losses over the course of the season. I still believe that the eight teams I listed would still make a compelling playoff, although their order might have shifted a bit over the last week.

Obviously, Ohio State, LSU, Georgia, Oklahoma, USC and Virginia Tech have the strongest arguments. Hawaii also gets a pass for its unblemished record. The eighth position would be open for considerable debate (West Virginia, Missouri and Kansas all ended their season with losses, which could open it up to Arizona State or Florida) but I believe it would be much better to have a debate for the eighth spot of a playoff than the second participant in a title game.

Of course, we’re all probably wasting our time asking for a playoff when the BCS bigwigs are content to roll with the way things are. We can only hope that the BCS fallout will produce some signficant changes in the near future, because no matter who wins this year's Championship, the result will be questioned for years to come.