Sippin' on some Hater-ade

Adrian Peterson? Yeah, he's a shoe-in for NFL Rookie of the Year, but come on...The press has been all over this guy like the second coming of Eric Dickerson. Even now, media types claim that "if Adrian Peterson hadn't missed those two games, he would have broken Eric Dickerson's rookie record (1808) for sure!" Considering that he currently has 1305 yards, it's a pretty big leap to assume that he would have gotten 500 yards in those two games plus this weekend's upcoming game. Sure, the guy's good, but he has only broken 100 yards five times this season. In fact, he barely has over 100 yards in his last three games combined, including a 14 carry, 3 yard performance at San Fran. Yep, that's a .2 rushing average. Adrian Peterson will be great, but let's not annoint him just yet.

Tom Brady? Sure, he's got three Super Bowl rings, dates the hottest chicks and has led his team to a 15-0 record (basically the NFL version of Derek Jeter) but aren't we giving him a little too much credit? He plays behind a fantastic offensive line and works within a great offensive scheme. Let's look at his last four games: Three out of four games with under a 55% completion percentage and a QB rating of less than 80. I think the Patriots will win and go 16-0, but I'm stating here that the Patriots will not make it to the Super Bowl.

Ohio State? Ha, just kidding, this one is way too easy.

Boston Celtics? Okay, they have basically one of the greatest trios to ever grace a basketball court, but I'm not 100% sold. Team USA used to think it was a good idea to throw together a bunch of superstars. It's easy when the team is winning, but a few losses and how will these egos handle it? The Celtics may have a 23-3 record, but are only 5-2 against teams with records of at least two games over .500, which surprisingly includes the Hawks. Throw in the OT loss to Cleveland and suddenly that record doesn't look so great. And what happens when Pierce or Ray Allen gets injured? These guys are getting older (all over 30) so they may not have as much gas when the end of the season rolls around.

Bowl Season: Let us feast!

After a three week hiatus, college football swings into action once again, starting tomorrow with the highly anticipated San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl. Two renowned powerhouses in Navy and Utah will lay it on all the line for the Magic Poinsettia. Or whatever trophy the bowl committee gives out…

Okay, so pretty much no one will be watching that game except alums of those schools and people with nothing better to do on a Thursday night. And of course, gamblers. Money is really the reason people watch these crappy second (maybe third) tier games. There are an astonishing 32 bowls scheduled for this year. Aside from the Championship, all of these games fall within a two week window. Perhaps even more amazing is the fact these games have been scheduled in such a fashion that one could watch almost every single one of them in their entirety, with very few exceptions.

On December 28th, viewers will be forced to choose between watching the Texas Bowl (Houston v TCU) and the Emerald Bowl (Oregon State v Maryland), starting at 8:00 and 8:30 respectively. It should be noted the four teams participating in these two games have a combined nineteen losses, but hey, why not give these guys another opportunity to increase that total? December 28th, however, is a Friday, so I am guessing that ratings will not exactly go through the roof for either of these games, especially the Texas Bowl, which will only be shown on the NFL Network.

December 31 presents the next viewing challenge for college football fans. The starts are staggered so that viewers will at least be able to watch at least a half of most of the games. The Armed Forces Bowl kicks off at 12:30 (Air Force v Cal), so we can all watch at least until halftime. At 2:00, viewers will have to decide between watching the second half of that game and switching to one of two other games: Roady’s Humanitarian Bowl (Fresno State v Georgia Tech) and the Sun Bowl (South Florida v Oregon). The Music City Bowl (Kentucky v Florida State) kicks off at 4:00, the Insight Bowl (Oklahoma State v Indiana) kicks off at 6:30, and the final game of the night, the Peach Bowl (Clemson v Auburn) kicks off at 7:30.

January 1 is the final viewing decision day. The Cotton Bowl (Missouri v Arkansas) kicks off at 11:30. Viewers will once again be able to watch the first half before having to decide between the Capital One Bowl (Michigan v Florida) and the Gator Bowl (Virginia v Texas Tech).

So basically, you, as a college football fan, will be able to watch every game in its entirety except one on December 28, three on December 31, and 1 ½ on January 1. Assuming that each game lasts for three and a half hours, you could theoretically spend roughly 93 hours watching football over the next two week, or close to four days. I recommend that you grab a few cases and several dozen wings before embarking upon this journey. Enjoy!

Never mind that I only have a true (read: non-monetary) interest in about ten of the games…

One of the main interests that fans have in the bowl games is watching how teams from their conference perform. For example, as a Tennessee fan I generally root against Alabama and Florida. However, put Florida against a Big Ten team and I become a Gator fan. I am tired of listening to Big Ten shenanigans about how their conference is superior to the SEC, so I am hoping that this year will go a long way towards proving that. The Big Ten and SEC usually only play a handful of bowl games against each other. This year there are three such matchups, and the SEC is favored in all three. LSU and Florida are clear favorites over Ohio State and Michigan, and Tennessee is a slight favorite over Wisconsin.

In looking at the current Vegas lines for the bowl games, it could end up being a very disappointing bowl season for the Big Ten. Out of eight bowl participants, only two are favored: Purdue over Central Michigan and Penn State over Texas A&M. Not surprisingly, the SEC is favored in six of its nine contests. One conference to look out for in this year’s Bowl Challenge Cup, given to the conference with the highest winning percentage in at least three bowl games, is the Mountain West. MWC teams are currently favored in 4 out of 5 games. Other conferences looking good are the ACC (5/8), Big 12 (5/8), and Big East (3/5). It is probably safe to write off the MAC, WAC and Conference USA, who are only favored in a combined three out of ten games.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I still need to fill out my bowl picks...

Dream Deferred

This season, the NFL has finally achieved its dream: Parity. Sixteen of the NFL’s 32 teams are within three games of .500. With three games left in the season, only eight teams have officially been eliminated from the playoffs (although it’s pretty much over for 5-8 Cincinnati) and, you guessed it, the remaining eight teams have essentially locked up playoff spots.

Of last year’s twelve playoff teams, six will likely not be making a return trip to the postseason, including Chicago, the NFC’s Super Bowl representative. Two 4-12 finishers from last year (Tampa and Cleveland) are currently projected to make the playoff field. Three of last year’s AFC playoff teams (Kansas City, Baltimore and New York) have already been eliminated from the playoff hunt and stand at no better than 4-9.

Only a total of nine teams have failed to make the post-season in the last three years, and only four (Arizona, Buffalo, Detroit, Houston) have failed to make the playoffs this century. For comparison’s sake, Major League Baseball is a little more dynastic, as twelve teams have not qualified for the post-season over the last three years. Of those twelve, nine have not made the playoffs this century. Granted, there are fewer available post-season slots, but the difference is noticeable.

However, given the increasing level of parity, how impressive does that make the New England Patriots look? And perhaps more (un)impressively, how about the Miami Dolphins? These teams clearly did not get the memo on NFL parity. While 0-13 Miami currently holds the fourth longest NFL playoff drought, the Patriots are one Super Bowl win away from creating a dynasty. New England won three Super Bowls over the 2001-2004 seasons and are looking to add a fourth this year. Only three of New England’s wins this year have come by less than seventeen points, and they have been held to under 30 points only twice. Meanwhile, only four New England opponents have put up more than 20 points.

On the flip side, given the number of average (mediocre) teams in this era, it is hard to believe that a team could actually go winless. It is interesting to note that, of the Dolphins thirteen losses, six have come by exactly three points. You would think that one of those games would go the Dolphins’ way sooner or later. Who knows, in Bizarro World, the Dolphins could be 6-7 and still fighting for that last playoff spot. Of course, of the Dolphins seven other losses, six were arguably blowouts. So maybe they really are that bad, and were lucky to even get close in their three-point losses.

Things don’t get any easier for Miami. This weekend, the Dolphins will face an angry Baltimore team riding a seven game losing streak of their own. Miami is currently listed as three point home underdogs. I personally hope to see Miami lose this game so next week they can face a (hold for daunting, spooky music) undefeated New England team. Talk about two worlds colliding.

I don’t have the facts verified, but I’m fairly confident that a team has never gone undefeated this long at the same time another team has gone winless. I’m even more confident that two such teams have never faced each other. I can only imagine what the Vegas line will be on this game. 30 points? No matter what happens, this will make for killer television, and I’d much rather watch a 14-0 team run over an 0-14 team than watch two 5-7 teams cling to faint playoff hopes.

Hopefully, I don’t jinx things and ruin the possibility of such a historic event. Call me old-fashioned, but I think it’s good to have great teams for an extended period of time. If teams can’t compete, too bad for them. For reasons that may never be clear, Arizona and Detroit continue to be the laughingstock of the NFL. It is on them (and only them) to fix their teams instead of hoping to get lucky with high draft picks and poaching players from better but more salary-cap strapped teams.

How satisfying is it to follow a team for years, and then once it finally seems that they are on the rise, the mirage disappears and they fall back down to earth? Then the three year cycle starts over. Take the Bears, for example. Stifling defense and a power running attack propelled the Bears back to the Super Bowl. The Bears are back! But wait, this year the Bears are but one of a dozen middling teams with no real identity. I think the fans deserve more than this Communist, lottery-like system. Congratulations…Tampa Bay! This year you get to go to the Super Bowl! We’ll see you again in three years…

In trying to satisfy everyone, the only thing that can be sure is that no one will end up satisfied. Give me the Patriots and their dominance. Give me the Colts and Peyton Manning running wild every year. Give me the Dolphins and their 0-13 record. Give me the Lions and Cardinals sucking every year. But don’t give me a lottery league.

Final Regular Season NCAA Power Rankings

With the regular college football season at a close, we have a few weeks to settle before the bowls swing into action. Without question, most of the discussion will center around the BCS, who made it, who didn't, and who will take home the national championship.

I like LSU to win it all, but even if they do win, critics will have plenty of ammunition to argue the validity of that championship. In preliminary Vegas lines, LSU is favored by 5.5 over the Buckeyes. In a voter-decided online sixteen team playoff at SI.com, it looks like Ohio State, Oklahoma, LSU and Florida are likely to advance to the semi-finals. Ohio State and LSU hold paper-thin leads over West Virginia and USC, respectively, which tells me that that public does not see Ohio State and LSU as the clear cut top two teams.

Of course, the games are decided on the field, not paper, so we'll have to hold our judgment until early January. Then let the speculation start up once again...

Here are my final rankings. Keep in mind that I am ranking teams based on which teams I feel are the best, not who has the best record. Current form holds more weight than the beginning of the season, strength of schedule must be considered, and of course some subjectivity is required to separate teams that seem equal on paper.

1.) Georgia (10-2)
Key Wins: Florida, Auburn, Kentucky
Loss(es): South Carolina, Tennessee
I had Georgia ranked third last week, and with the Missouri and WVU losses I bumped them up to number one. Unlike the media, I don't consider it a great sin that Georgia did not win its conference. The Bulldogs are likely disappointed that they did not get a chance to play for the National Championship, but a Sugar Bowl trip is a nice consolation prize.
2.) Oklahoma (11-2)
Key Wins: Texas, Missouri (twice)
Loss(es): Colorado, Texas Tech
I gave the Sooners a big bump based on their dominating performance against Missouri. When they want to, Oklahoma can beat anyone. West Virginia should prove to be a good challenge for this team.
3.) LSU (11-2)
Key Wins: Virginia Tech, Florida, Tennessee
Loss(es): Kentucky, Arkansas
LSU scored a less-than-convincing win over Tennessee and magically jumped from number 7 in the BCS to number 2. I can't argue against the Tigers' resume, but I'm not convinced they are the number two team in the country. Having a healthy Matt Flynn will certainly help.
4.) Florida (9-3)
Key Wins: Tennessee, Kentucky, Florida State
Loss(es): Auburn, LSU, Georgia
You may be asking yourselves, why is a three-loss team ranked ahead of Ohio State? Well, I consider Florida to be the better team. Two of Florida's losses came to teams listed in my top three. Florida lost to Auburn on a last second field goal, lost to LSU after they made 6/6 fourth down conversions, and did not have a healthy Tebow against Georgia. Looking at recent form, Florida is on fire, having scored forty or more in its last four games, including wins over South Carolina and Florida State.
5.) Ohio State (11-1)
Key Wins: Penn State, Wisconsin, Michigan
Loss(es): Illinois
If Ohio State had to play LSU and Georgia instead of Minnesota and Washington, would they have finished 11-1? Fair or not, I haven't seen enough from Ohio State to believe that they deserve the number one ranking that's been handed to them. Incidentally, Steve Spurrier also ranked Ohio State fifth in his final poll.
6.) Virginia Tech (11-2)
Key Wins: Clemson, Virginia, Boston College
Loss(es): LSU, Boston College
Virginia Tech was impressive in avenging its earlier loss to Boston College. A date with Kansas awaits. Interesting to note that Virginia Tech actually finished first in the BCS computer rankings, but the voters looked at the LSU blowout and never gave Virginia Tech a chance.
7.) USC (10-2)
Key Wins: Oregon St, Cal, Arizona State
Loss(es): Stanford, Oregon
USC has been talked about as one the "hottest" teams right now, but I don't see it. Yes, they were impressive in beating Arizona State, but the week before that they only scraped by Cal (who just lost to Stanford) and the week after the ASU game they struggled a bit before finally putting away UCLA.
8.) Missouri (11-2)
Key Wins: Illinois, Texas Tech, Kansas
Loss(es): Oklahoma (twice)
The Tigers were absolutely shredded by Oklahoma and went from number 1 and playing for the national title to playing in the Cotton Bowl in a few short hours.
9.) WVU (10-2)
Key Wins: Rutgers, Cincinnati, Connecticut
Loss(es): South Florida, Pitt
West Virginia's loss was even more inexplicable, losing to 4-7 Pitt. At home, no less. Sure, Pat White was injured, but that can't be an excuse in a game like this, against an opponent like Pitt.
10.) Hawaii (12-0)
Key Wins: Boise State
Loss(es): None
Hawaii finished its perfect season with an impressive comeback against Washington. Unfortunately, beating a 4-8 Pac-10 team did not provide Hawaii the opportunity to make a statement win. Otherwise, voters very well may have put Hawaii into the title game.
11.) Kansas (11-1)
Key Wins: None
Loss(es): Missouri
Kansas did not play, but I felt compelled to move them down after the team that gave Kansas its only loss was so thoroughly dominated. Kansas doesn't have a much more difficult schedule than Hawaii, so they should be glad they are going to BCS game instead of a perhaps more deserving Missouri team.
12.) Illinois (9-3)
Key Wins: Penn State, Wisconsin, Ohio State
Loss(es): Missouri, Iowa, Michigan
A lucky beneficiary of the antiquated Rose Bowl good ole boys club, Illinois is headed to Pasadena to face USC.
13.) ASU (10-2)
Key Wins: Oregon St, Cal, UCLA
Loss(es): Oregon, USC
Arizona State will face Texas in the Holiday Bowl in what should be one of the more intriguing non-BCS bowls.
14.) Boston College (10-3)
Key Wins: Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Clemson
Loss(es): Florida State, Maryland, Virginia Tech
Unfortunately for Boston College, they were unable to defeat Virginia Tech a second time and lost out on a big BCS payday. Boston College falls all the way to the ChampsSports Bowl, where they face a perennially underachieving Michigan State squad.
15.) Clemson (9-3)
Key Wins: Florida State, Wake Forest, South Carolina
Loss(es): Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, BC
Auburn awaits in the Peach Bowl. Clemson fans will wonder what could have been after another season falls just short of expectations.
16.) Tennessee (9-4)
Key Wins: Georgia, Arkansas, Kentucky
Loss(es): Cal, Florida, Alabama, LSU
Tennessee certainly had its chances against LSU, but two late Erik Ainge interceptions, one for a touchdown, doomed the Vols. Tennessee will make a second consecutive trip to the Outback Bowl.
17.) Texas (9-3)
Key Wins: Texas Tech
Loss(es): Kansas State, Oklahoma, Texas A&M
Texas will have its hands full with Arizona State in the Holiday Bowl.
18.) Cincinnati (9-3)
Key Wins: Oregon St, South Florida, UConn
Loss(es): Louisville, Pitt, West Virginia
This team probably deserved better than the papajohns.com bowl, but if they hang on to head coach Brian Kelly for a few more years, this program will only continue to improve.
19.) South Florida (9-3)
Key Wins: Auburn, West Virginia
Loss(es): Rutgers, Connecticut, Cincinnati
This program didn't even exist ten years, and now they will line up against one of the top Pac-10 teams in the Sun Bowl. Even better, they will probably be favored.
20.) Virginia (9-3)
Key Wins: UConn, Wake Forest
Loss(es): Wyoming, NC State, Virginia Tech
Virginia certainly overachieved this year, exceeding all expectations. The Cavaliers will face off against Texas Tech in the Gator Bowl. Sorry Notre Dame, you won't be seen back in the Gator Bowl for quite a few years.
21.) Auburn (8-4)
Key Wins: Florida, Arkansas
Loss(es): South Florida, Miss St, LSU, Georgia
As mentioned, Auburn will face Clemson in the Peach Bowl. The stadium should be filled with orange, and at least everyone will be cheering for the Tigers.
22.) Arkansas (8-4)
Key Wins: Mississippi State, LSU
Loss(es): Alabama, Kentucky, Auburn, Tennessee
Darren McFadden may have one last chance to put on a Razorbacks jersey, and the whole team should be excited to face off against Missouri in the Cotton Bowl. Arkansas was able to knock the number one team in the country, so they should no problems with an ex-number one, right?
23.) BYU (10-2)
Key Wins: Arizona, Air Force
Loss(es): UCLA, Tulsa
The voters seem to like BYU, and there aren't exactly alot of other quality teams out there. BYU will get a re-match against UCLA in the Las Vegas Bowl.
24.) Texas Tech (8-4)
Key Wins: Texas A&M, Oklahoma
Loss(es): OK State, Missouri, Colorado, Texas
We will see if the Oklahoma win was fluke when the Red Raiders take the field against Virginia in the Gator Bowl.
25.) UCF (10-3)
Key Wins: None
Loss(es): Texas, East Carolina, South Florida
Central Florida finished with ten wins and captured the Conference USA title. Plus, they have a guy (Kevin Smith) who has run for over 2400 yards.

Travis Henry 1, NFL 0

Congratulations, Travis Henry. You managed to beat the drug test rap, without even having to resort to the Whizzinator.

Apparently the league was not very convinced by Henry’s defense. League spokesman Greg Aiello on the case: “The defense of hair samples and lie detector tests was irrelevant and unconvincing.” So it’s not particularly clear how Henry avoided the potential year-long suspension. Perhaps the league felt that Mr. Henry’s increasingly large family would be better off with an employed patriarch.

Oh, and in case you’re curious as to why I have a Tennessee Titans Travis Henry photo and not a more recent Broncos shot, well it’s the most recent photo I could find on “The Official Travis Henry Website”. The site has a 2007 copyright date and has recent Travis Henry news, but apparently they didn’t feel it was important to update the simple fact that he had changed teams.

Post BCS Thoughts

What a fitting end to this college football season. #1 Missouri losing to Oklahoma was not a huge surprise, considering that Oklahoma was favored and had beaten the Tigers handily earlier this season, but absolutely no one could have anticipated that West Virginia would fall. Even you Buckeye and LSU fans can’t claim that you really thought this would happen.

The fallout of yet another round of upsets leaves us with an Ohio State-LSU title game and a host of disappointed teams. Georgia is likely feeling the most slighted. The Bulldogs entered the weekend ranked fourth in the BCS, watched two of the three teams ahead of them lose, and yet somehow moved down one position in the BCS and ended up fifth.

I am not saying that Georgia deserves to be in the title game in place of LSU or Ohio State (although they would certainly have a good argument) but if voters felt that LSU and/or Oklahoma was that much better than Georgia, shouldn’t they have ranked those teams higher to begin with? You can’t honestly tell me that the shaky 21-14 win over Tennessee was enough to vault LSU from 7th to 2nd in the BCS. Politicking played a huge role in that jump, and it makes me a little sick. I can certainly understand how critics of the SEC would point to the preferential treatment the conference seems to garner.

I also find it a little curious that Ohio State received a virtual pass to the Championship game while voters were tripping over themselves trying to find someone other than Georgia to play for the title. An ESPN poll (I know, not exactly the most scientific) showed that over 50% of the country does not believe that Ohio State is one of the top two teams in the country, and yet their credentials were not questioned at all when it came time to vote.

The truth is that no one knows who the two best teams are in the country right now. As I mentioned prior to this weekend’s games, it is much easier to narrow down the top eight or so teams than it is to select the top two, especially when nearly all have the same record and have suffered similarly unexpected losses over the course of the season. I still believe that the eight teams I listed would still make a compelling playoff, although their order might have shifted a bit over the last week.

Obviously, Ohio State, LSU, Georgia, Oklahoma, USC and Virginia Tech have the strongest arguments. Hawaii also gets a pass for its unblemished record. The eighth position would be open for considerable debate (West Virginia, Missouri and Kansas all ended their season with losses, which could open it up to Arizona State or Florida) but I believe it would be much better to have a debate for the eighth spot of a playoff than the second participant in a title game.

Of course, we’re all probably wasting our time asking for a playoff when the BCS bigwigs are content to roll with the way things are. We can only hope that the BCS fallout will produce some signficant changes in the near future, because no matter who wins this year's Championship, the result will be questioned for years to come.

Initiating Self-Destruct Sequence in 5...4...3...2...

Let the annual playoff talk begin. This year’s BCS is headed towards perhaps its worst result since its inception. To be fair, this really isn’t the fault of the BCS. No team has stepped up to the plate and truly laid claim to a rightful spot in the BCS Championship. Unlike in previous years, we have no dominant teams (see: USC/Texas 2005) that clearly deserve to be number one or number two, head and shoulders over the competition.

In reality, we have one undefeated team, four teams with one loss, and nine two-loss teams. You could make compelling arguments for a good percentage of those teams, as well as arguments against each of them. The BCS can only truly work when the chips fall perfectly into place, ie two teams that clearly deserve to play for title actually do play for the title. When you have three or more deserving teams, one will get the shaft, like undefeated Auburn in 2004. No non-playoff system will ever solve that problem.

Sometimes we forget that the BCS really is an improvement over the old system, when airtight bowl allegiances did not allow conference champions from the Pac-10 and Big Ten to play bowl games against other conference foes, the SEC Champion always played in the Sugar Bowl, and so on and so forth. This often led to split national titles and produced bowl games that left fans wondering ‘what if…’ However, I sincerely doubt that you could find a single person who believes that the BCS is perfect, or that it is even the best available solution.

I will admit I have waffled a bit on the playoff debate. I used to be 100% for a playoff system, but this year I started thinking otherwise. The regular season really is special in college football. Not to say that it isn’t in other sports, but regular season college football seems to carry a bit of added mystique. Once you lose, you are essentially eliminated from contention. As this season has progressed, we have seen that come to light, as team after team (South Florida, Boston College, Kansas) has been a contender and then just as suddenly fallen. You could argue that the current system works as a de facto playoff.

The one problem with this is the assumption that eventually a team will step up and prove it deserves to be number one. My biggest complaint is that Ohio State, who lost its second-to-last game, is a better-than-50% bet to play in this year’s National Championship, considering that number one Missouri is a three point ‘dog to Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship. If the regular season truly worked as de facto playoff system, there is no way Ohio State would still be alive. True, this problem has popped up before in the BCS, with 2003 Oklahoma losing in its conference championship and still making the BCS Championship (and summarily getting blown out) and 2001 Nebraska losing its season finale and still playing for the national title. But that does not make it right.

Let’s break down the top title contenders:

Undefeated:
Hawaii – Currently ranked 12th in the BCS, Hawaii has zero shot at making the BCS Championship. Their schedule has been knocked, and deservedly so. Of course, Hawaii had originally been scheduled to play Michigan, but the Wolverines backed out at the last minute. Michigan’s new opponent: Appalachian State. Nice work, Big Ten. The truth is, though, that none of the big boys want to play Hawaii. The bottom line is that Hawaii is the only team in the nation to not lose a game. How can you argue against that?

One-loss teams:
Missouri – Currently number one in the BCS, Missouri needs only to knock off Oklahoma to reach the title game. How much sense does it make, though, when the number one team in the nation is the underdog on a neutral field? Basically, Missouri is number one because no one else is. They do have two victories over top 15 teams in Illinois and Kansas, but were convincingly defeated in their prior game against Oklahoma.
West Virginia – West Virginia has looked solid this year, but their schedule is not quite as tough as some of the other contenders. All of West Virginia’s wins except two (Louisville, Cincinnati) have come by at least 17 points. A bit of a question mark, but they would certainly present a tough matchup for anyone in the field right now.
Kansas – What to make of Kansas? Their biggest win is Texas A&M, which isn’t saying much, but they did manage to make it through the season with only one loss, to rival Missouri. Kansas showed heart in coming back against Missouri but ultimately fell short. That loss should eliminate them from title contention, but it would be interesting to see how they stack up against the other contenders.
Ohio State – Winners of the Big Ten, almost by default, Ohio State finished an unexpected 11-1. The Buckeyes did not garner a significant victory all year, but the closest they came was either the win over struggling Michigan or PJ Hill-less Wisconsin. Like West Virginia, Ohio State dominated against a weaker schedule, winning 9 of 11 games by 16 points or more. However, the late loss to Illinois (Ohio State’s toughest opponent) is hard to ignore.

Two-loss teams:
Georgia – Arguably the hottest teams in college football right now, the Bulldogs hold victories over two top 25 BCS teams (Florida, Auburn) and have been a team on a mission since the demolition at Neyland Stadium. Of course, you can’t ignore that loss, or the early loss to South Carolina, but the ‘Dawgs have the best argument of any two-loss team. Also, they haven’t lost since October 6th, which few teams can claim, including Missouri, Kansas and Ohio State.
LSU – LSU had two shots at being number one and blew it both times. The Tigers probably peaked after blowing out Virginia Tech and appear to have been holding on for dear life ever since. To their credit, both losses have come against respectable opponents in overtime, and like Georgia, LSU has beaten both Florida and Auburn. Winning the SEC could garner LSU some additional votes.
Oklahoma – I’m willing to give Oklahoma a mulligan for the Texas Tech loss, since they lost their star QB in that game, but the Colorado loss is another story. The Sooners have looked less than impressive in several of their victories as well. On the flip side, Oklahoma has beaten number one Missouri and will have the chance to do it again. Win that game (and the Big 12), and Oklahoma deserves to be mentioned as a top contender.
Virginia Tech – Unless they beat Boston College, forget about them. They were blown out by LSU and lost to BC. They do have a couple of impressive wins in Clemson and Virginia, but the ACC Championship game will determine whether they are a contender or an also-ran.
Boston College – See above. Boston College’s losses (Florida State, Maryland) are much worse than Virginia Tech’s, but then again they beat Virginia Tech head-to-head. BC probably does not deserve to play for the title, but could cause problems for someone in a playoff format.
USC – Certainly interesting, given USC’s recent play. The win over Arizona State was impressive, but can we really allow a team who lost to Stanford to play for the national title? Let’s see how the Trojans fare against UCLA, because I’m not 100% sure they will win that game.
Arizona State – No, thanks. They lost to the top two contenders in their conference and their best win is Oregon State, so no chance of competing for the national title.
BYU – A good story, but not a serious contender.
Boise State – Eliminated when they lost to Hawaii. No strong wins of note.

And we haven’t even mentioned Florida (three losses), who could probably beat at least half the teams in the list. With all that said, I think you can seriously consider about eight teams for the National Championship: Hawaii, West Virginia, Ohio State, Missouri/Oklahoma winner, Georgia, USC, Virginia Tech/Boston College winner, and LSU (if they beat Tennessee convincingly). And maybe Kansas, depending on how this weekend goes for the other teams involved. Except for the unknown Hawaii factor, I think any team in this list would have a chance.

Would it really be so difficult to arrange an eight team playoff? The rest of the field could still go to their same crappy Outback bowls. The Rose, Sugar, Fiesta and Orange Bowls could host the first round of the playoffs, and only three additional games would be required. Or two, if you consider that we already have a separate BCS Championship bowl game. I think that the March Madness selection process should be the model for selecting the eight participants, considering such factors as computer rankings, schedule strength, and recent form. Leaving the selection up to just a computer rankings system (like the BCS) would never work, we need to have human judgment evaluate who is and is not deserving.

There has been some talk of going to a “plus one system” but I don’t trust the BCS to handle that scenario. The general proposal would be to have the top four teams play two games and then have the two winners face off for the National Championship. But who decides the top four? Straight BCS rankings? Teams like Hawaii would still be left out. With parity increasing across college football, I’m not sure that having essentially a four team playoff is drastic enough. Plus, teams like Ohio State would continue to benefit as they sit idly (and rise) while other teams risk defeat in conference title games.

Based on current BCS rankings and Vegas’ projected outcomes for this weekend, the field would look something like this:

1.) West Virginia vs 8.) Hawaii
2.) Ohio State vs 7.) USC
3.) Georgia vs 6.) Oklahoma
4.) Virginia Tech vs 5.) LSU

Those would be some interesting matchups. Food for thought…

1.) Missouri (11-1)
Key Wins: Illinois, Texas Tech, Kansas
Loss(es): Oklahoma
Welcome to the top, Missouri. Don’t get comfortable, though. Missouri is the underdog headed into the Big 12 Championship against Oklahoma. Missouri clinches a spot in the BCS Championship game with a win.
2.) WVU (10-1)
Key Wins: Rutgers, Cincinnati, Connecticut
Loss(es): South Florida
All that stands between West Virginia and the BCS Championship Game is pesky Pitt. I doubt that West Virginia will have any trouble getting amped for this rivalry game.
3.) Georgia (10-2)
Key Wins: Florida, Auburn, Kentucky
Loss(es): South Carolina, Tennessee
On the outside looking in for both the SEC and the National Championship, Georgia should at least claim a spot in the BCS as an at-large. A minor miracle would be required to vault the ‘Dawgs into the BCS title game.
4.) LSU (10-2)
Key Wins: Virginia Tech, Florida, Auburn
Loss(es): Kentucky, Arkansas
After suffering another overtime loss, LSU will miss out on the National Championship. Perhaps Les Miles can now focus on more important things, like the Michigan job, or, you know, the SEC Championship game.
5.) Kansas (11-1)
Key Wins: None
Loss(es): Missouri
Kansas fought hard but came up short against bitter rival Missouri. The Jayhawks should still be rewarded with a BCS bid, but won’t challenge for the national title. Given Kansas’ history, fans should be plenty satisfied with this outcome.
6.) Florida (9-3)
Key Wins: Tennessee, Kentucky, Florida State
Loss(es): Auburn, LSU, Georgia
Tim Tebow gave another Heisman performance and Florida walked all over Florida State. The polls aren’t showing the Gators the same kind of love that I am, but I still feel the Gators are deserving of this rank.
7.) Ohio State (11-1)
Key Wins: Penn State, Wisconsin, Michigan
Loss(es): Illinois
Ohio State was idle last week, and will be this weekend as well, but don’t be surprised to see the Buckeyes move into the BCS Championship should Missouri or WVU lose. Oklahoma and Pitt flags will be flying all across Ohio.
8.) Oklahoma (10-2)
Key Wins: Texas, Missouri
Loss(es): Colorado, Texas Tech
Win and Oklahoma is likely headed to the Fiesta Bowl. Lose, and they could end up in the Holiday Bowl. Oh, and a win knocks Missouri out of the National Championship game.
9.) Virginia Tech (10-2)
Key Wins: Clemson, Florida State, Virginia
Loss(es): LSU, Boston College
Virginia Tech will have a chance to avenge its earlier loss to Boston College, with the ACC Championship and BCS bowl berth hanging in the balance.
10.) USC (8-2)
Key Wins: Oregon St, Cal, Arizona State
Loss(es): Stanford, Oregon
Last year, UCLA knocked off USC. Can the Bruins do it again? Under a very unlikely set of circumstances, UCLA could get to the Rose Bowl, starting with a win over USC. I don’t think that is going to happen, but we’ve seen crazier things…
11.) Boston College (10-2)
Key Wins: Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Clemson
Loss(es): Florida State, Maryland
As mentioned with Virginia Tech, this ACC Championship game is for all the marbles. Matt Ryan has been impressing Heisman voters once again, so who knows? Maybe he could vault himself back into contention with a thorough beating of Virginia Tech.
12.) Tennessee (9-3)
Key Wins: Georgia, Arkansas, Kentucky
Loss(es): Cal, Florida, Alabama
In one of the most thrilling games in recent memory, Tennessee just barely survived against Kentucky, keeping the nation’s longest streak against a single opponent intact. I counted at least three times that I had internally resigned myself to the fact that Tennessee would lose, only to see the Vols miraculously stay alive. Tennessee will need a little more luck if they hope to knock off LSU and win the SEC.
13.) Illinois (9-3)
Key Wins: Penn State, Wisconsin, Ohio State
Loss(es): Missouri, Iowa, Michigan
With their regular season finished, the Illini are only waiting to find out what bowl they will go to.
14.) Hawaii (11-0)
Key Wins: Boise State
Loss(es): None
With the win over Boise State, Hawaii has proven that it has a solid team and will likely get to showcase its talent against the best the SEC has to offer in the Sugar Bowl. Quite frankly, I’m a little nervous about their crazy passing schemes.
15.) Clemson (9-3)
Key Wins: Florida State, Wake Forest, South Carolina
Loss(es): Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, BC
Clemson knocked off South Carolina to help ease the pain of the come-from-ahead loss to Boston College. The season will still be viewed with some level of disappointment as another Clemson season ends without a title of any kind.
16.) ASU (9-2)
Key Wins: Oregon St, Cal, UCLA
Loss(es): Oregon, USC
Arizona State was thoroughly outclassed by USC and unfortunately ends the season on a bit of a down note with losses to their two chief competitors, Oregon and USC. ASU still has a shot at the Pac-10 crown if UCLA knocks off USC.
17.) Texas (9-3)
Key Wins: Texas Tech
Loss(es): Kansas State, Oklahoma, Texas A&M
Finally! It was only a matter of time until Texas showed their true colors. What does it say about the Big 12 that it took this long for someone to knock them off? Granted, they didn’t face Missouri or Kansas, but Texas somehow managed to scrape together a nine win season without beating anyone of consequence.
18.) Oregon (8-3)
Key Wins: Michigan, USC, Arizona State
Loss(es): Cal, Arizona, UCLA
You have to feel for this team. They have been completely shell-shocked since Dennis Dixon went down and were blanked by a mediocre UCLA squad. Perhaps the Ducks were a tad overrated with Dixon, but his impact is crystal clear. Without him, Oregon is barely a top 25 team.
19.) Cincinnati (9-3)
Key Wins: Oregon St, South Florida, UConn
Loss(es): Louisville, Pitt, West Virginia
Cincinnati’s regular season is complete. Having just accepted a bid to the prestigious papajohns.com bowl, the Bearcats will not have to deal with the stress of waiting to learn which bowl they will make..
20.) South Florida (9-3)
Key Wins: Auburn, West Virginia
Loss(es): Rutgers, Connecticut, Cincinnati
South Florida ended its season on a positive note and will play in this year’s Sun Bowl, earning their first ever bowl appearance. South Florida will face off against a Pac-10 opponent, perhaps Oregon.
21.) Virginia (9-3)
Key Wins: UConn, Wake Forest
Loss(es): Wyoming, NC State, Virginia Tech
Virginia played decently in a respectable loss to Virginia Tech, which indicates that maybe Virginia was more good than lucky this season, despite being on the lucky end of so many close games.
22.) Auburn (8-4)
Key Wins: Florida, Arkansas
Loss(es): South Florida, Miss St, LSU, Georgia
Auburn improved its bowl position with a hard-fought victory over Alabama in the annual Iron Bowl. Auburn will never be confused with an offensive juggernaut, but they get the job done with defense and tough running.
23.) Arkansas (8-4)
Key Wins: Mississippi State, LSU
Loss(es): Alabama, Kentucky, Auburn, Tennessee
Behind the amazing Mcfadden, Arkansas trampled all over LSU’s vaunted defense and ruined the SEC’s hope of taking home a National Championship. The Heisman race could likely come down to Tim Tebow and Darren McFadden. For all the great players that have come out of the SEC, the conference hasn’t won a Heisman since Danny Wuerffel in 1996.
24.) Texas Tech (8-4)
Key Wins: Texas A&M, Oklahoma
Loss(es): OK State, Missouri, Colorado, Texas
They knocked off Oklahoma two weeks ago, but are too inconsistent to be a national threat. They sure are a fun team to watch, though. Freshman receiver Michael Crabtree will be a force over the next two or three years.
25.) BYU (9-2)
Key Wins: Arizona, Air Force
Loss(es): UCLA, Tulsa
I guess.

Others given consideration:
Wake Forest
Wisconsin
Oregon State