OK, so maybe you had been expecting more “bubble” updates as the conference tournaments were winding down, so sorry about that. For what it’s worth, I think the committee did a pretty good job. Also, a number of surprise tourney berths (Mississippi State, Temple, and Cleveland State) eliminated at-large spots and probably made the committee’s job a little bit easier.
From a seed-centric perspective, it appears that Arizona and Wisconsin were the last two teams to make the tournament (as 12 seeds) with Dayton coming as the lone at-large 11 seed. Michigan, Minnesota, and Maryland all clocked in as 10 seeds. Nine seeds Tennessee, Butler, and Texas A&M were never really in any doubt, so realistically speaking, only about six seeds were up for grabs going into the final selection process.
I don’t really have any huge issues with the seeds themselves, but I will point a few teams that seem to stick out a little bit. For example, I’m a little surprised that Boston College earned a seven seed. I know they beat Duke and won at UNC, but they also lost at home to Harvard and only went 9-7 in conference, including 5-5 in their last ten games. Xavier also seems to be seeded a little high. They had two very impressive wins back in November (Missouri, Memphis) but also struggled down the stretch (going 5-5 with two losses to RPI 100+ teams), so a four seed seems a little high. Maybe I’m a little biased, but I think Tennessee’s nine seed is a little low. The weak SEC may have brought down their numbers a little bit but they did play against the third ranked schedule in the country and advanced to the SEC title game.
For posterity’s sake, I’ll mention my bracket picks, although I didn’t put an incredible amount of thought into them. Unless otherwise noted, I went with the chalk.
First Round
Arizona over Utah – Utah may be ranked in the RPI top ten, but they won only one road game against an RPI top 100 team (Wyoming). They did win the Mountain West tourney, while Arizona is coming off a disappointing quarterfinal exit. Arizona has also lost five of their last six, so I can’t come up with any rational reasons for this pick, except that I think Utah is overrated and Arizona will want to justify their inclusion as likely the last at-large selection.
USC over Boston College – Unlike Arizona, USC is playing well right now, having just won the Pac-10 tourney. As I mentioned above, I think Boston College was seeded too generously and I like this game for an upset.
Tennessee over Oklahoma State – I guess a nine over an eight is upset, but as a Vols fan, I have to pick them to win at least one game.
Wisconsin over Florida State – My usual thought process centers around the fact that the Big Ten sucks, but hey, Northwestern was able to beat Florida State, so why not Wisconsin? Wisconsin also won at Virginia Tech, which proves they can beat ACC talent.
Wow, a whopping four upset picks for the first round. Let’s not get carried away here…
Second Round
USC over Michigan State – First of all, I’m in a pool with a bunch of people from Michigan, so this is huge chance for me to separate myself from them. But more importantly, Michigan State really isn’t all that good. I may be biased because one of the only games I saw them play was a 98-63 blowout at the hands of UNC, but their disappointing show in the Big Ten tourney may be a sign of things to come.
Wisconsin over Xavier – What the hell is wrong with me? Picking one of the last at-large teams to advance to the Sweet 16? Well, I do feel that Xavier is over-seeded and they haven’t been able to win on the road, at least lately. This is more a pick against Xavier than for Wisconsin. If Florida State beats Wisconsin, I would probably pick them over Xavier as well.
UCLA over Villanova – Many people are picking UCLA to get upset in the first round by VCU, so this is my “opposite pick” that sometimes seems to work in Vegas. Unfortunately, Villanova will basically be playing at home, so this may be a reach. UCLA has Final Four experience, so I don’t see them going down easily. Call me crazy.
Arizona State over Syracuse – Throw rationale out the window. I just think Syracuse’s luck has run out. That 6 OT win over UConn must have used up a lot of karma. Meanwhile, Arizona State has kind of slipped in under the radar, although did play well in the Pac-10 tourney before losing in the title game to USC.
Again, I don’t know what is wrong with me. I have FOUR Pac-10 teams in the Sweet 16. I guess Obama and I are not on the same page – he has every Pac-10 team losing in the second round (or earlier). I think my picks are more a factor of good matchups than an actual statement on the strength of the conference.
Sweet 16
Sorry, no upsets here. I do have Kansas advancing to the Elite Eight (in place of Michigan State/USC) but all my other one and two seeds held serve. Oh, and that also means all the Pac-10 teams are gone now.
Elite Eight
Memphis over Connecticut – Memphis never seems to get any love, despite the fact they have been to three straight Elite Eights. They are hard team to gauge, but it’s also hard to ignore how they dominated the Conference USA tournament. Connecticut has a terrific resume and will probably be rested after bowing out a little earlier than expected in the Big East tourney. Regardless, this should be a great game and obviously it could go either way, but I like Memphis to come out on top.
Final Four
Memphis over Louisville
UNC over Pitt
At this point we’re just splitting hairs. Louisville can be inconsistent (see: 90-57 loss at Notre Dame) but they are peaking at the right now. UNC’s fortunes will probably depend on Ty Lawson. If he is not 100%, then Pitt would be my pick.
Champion
UNC - Unless they lose to Pitt...
From a seed-centric perspective, it appears that Arizona and Wisconsin were the last two teams to make the tournament (as 12 seeds) with Dayton coming as the lone at-large 11 seed. Michigan, Minnesota, and Maryland all clocked in as 10 seeds. Nine seeds Tennessee, Butler, and Texas A&M were never really in any doubt, so realistically speaking, only about six seeds were up for grabs going into the final selection process.
I don’t really have any huge issues with the seeds themselves, but I will point a few teams that seem to stick out a little bit. For example, I’m a little surprised that Boston College earned a seven seed. I know they beat Duke and won at UNC, but they also lost at home to Harvard and only went 9-7 in conference, including 5-5 in their last ten games. Xavier also seems to be seeded a little high. They had two very impressive wins back in November (Missouri, Memphis) but also struggled down the stretch (going 5-5 with two losses to RPI 100+ teams), so a four seed seems a little high. Maybe I’m a little biased, but I think Tennessee’s nine seed is a little low. The weak SEC may have brought down their numbers a little bit but they did play against the third ranked schedule in the country and advanced to the SEC title game.
For posterity’s sake, I’ll mention my bracket picks, although I didn’t put an incredible amount of thought into them. Unless otherwise noted, I went with the chalk.
First Round
Arizona over Utah – Utah may be ranked in the RPI top ten, but they won only one road game against an RPI top 100 team (Wyoming). They did win the Mountain West tourney, while Arizona is coming off a disappointing quarterfinal exit. Arizona has also lost five of their last six, so I can’t come up with any rational reasons for this pick, except that I think Utah is overrated and Arizona will want to justify their inclusion as likely the last at-large selection.
USC over Boston College – Unlike Arizona, USC is playing well right now, having just won the Pac-10 tourney. As I mentioned above, I think Boston College was seeded too generously and I like this game for an upset.
Tennessee over Oklahoma State – I guess a nine over an eight is upset, but as a Vols fan, I have to pick them to win at least one game.
Wisconsin over Florida State – My usual thought process centers around the fact that the Big Ten sucks, but hey, Northwestern was able to beat Florida State, so why not Wisconsin? Wisconsin also won at Virginia Tech, which proves they can beat ACC talent.
Wow, a whopping four upset picks for the first round. Let’s not get carried away here…
Second Round
USC over Michigan State – First of all, I’m in a pool with a bunch of people from Michigan, so this is huge chance for me to separate myself from them. But more importantly, Michigan State really isn’t all that good. I may be biased because one of the only games I saw them play was a 98-63 blowout at the hands of UNC, but their disappointing show in the Big Ten tourney may be a sign of things to come.
Wisconsin over Xavier – What the hell is wrong with me? Picking one of the last at-large teams to advance to the Sweet 16? Well, I do feel that Xavier is over-seeded and they haven’t been able to win on the road, at least lately. This is more a pick against Xavier than for Wisconsin. If Florida State beats Wisconsin, I would probably pick them over Xavier as well.
UCLA over Villanova – Many people are picking UCLA to get upset in the first round by VCU, so this is my “opposite pick” that sometimes seems to work in Vegas. Unfortunately, Villanova will basically be playing at home, so this may be a reach. UCLA has Final Four experience, so I don’t see them going down easily. Call me crazy.
Arizona State over Syracuse – Throw rationale out the window. I just think Syracuse’s luck has run out. That 6 OT win over UConn must have used up a lot of karma. Meanwhile, Arizona State has kind of slipped in under the radar, although did play well in the Pac-10 tourney before losing in the title game to USC.
Again, I don’t know what is wrong with me. I have FOUR Pac-10 teams in the Sweet 16. I guess Obama and I are not on the same page – he has every Pac-10 team losing in the second round (or earlier). I think my picks are more a factor of good matchups than an actual statement on the strength of the conference.
Sweet 16
Sorry, no upsets here. I do have Kansas advancing to the Elite Eight (in place of Michigan State/USC) but all my other one and two seeds held serve. Oh, and that also means all the Pac-10 teams are gone now.
Elite Eight
Memphis over Connecticut – Memphis never seems to get any love, despite the fact they have been to three straight Elite Eights. They are hard team to gauge, but it’s also hard to ignore how they dominated the Conference USA tournament. Connecticut has a terrific resume and will probably be rested after bowing out a little earlier than expected in the Big East tourney. Regardless, this should be a great game and obviously it could go either way, but I like Memphis to come out on top.
Final Four
Memphis over Louisville
UNC over Pitt
At this point we’re just splitting hairs. Louisville can be inconsistent (see: 90-57 loss at Notre Dame) but they are peaking at the right now. UNC’s fortunes will probably depend on Ty Lawson. If he is not 100%, then Pitt would be my pick.
Champion
UNC - Unless they lose to Pitt...
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