Thursday, December 6, 2007

Final Regular Season NCAA Power Rankings

With the regular college football season at a close, we have a few weeks to settle before the bowls swing into action. Without question, most of the discussion will center around the BCS, who made it, who didn't, and who will take home the national championship.

I like LSU to win it all, but even if they do win, critics will have plenty of ammunition to argue the validity of that championship. In preliminary Vegas lines, LSU is favored by 5.5 over the Buckeyes. In a voter-decided online sixteen team playoff at SI.com, it looks like Ohio State, Oklahoma, LSU and Florida are likely to advance to the semi-finals. Ohio State and LSU hold paper-thin leads over West Virginia and USC, respectively, which tells me that that public does not see Ohio State and LSU as the clear cut top two teams.

Of course, the games are decided on the field, not paper, so we'll have to hold our judgment until early January. Then let the speculation start up once again...

Here are my final rankings. Keep in mind that I am ranking teams based on which teams I feel are the best, not who has the best record. Current form holds more weight than the beginning of the season, strength of schedule must be considered, and of course some subjectivity is required to separate teams that seem equal on paper.

1.) Georgia (10-2)
Key Wins: Florida, Auburn, Kentucky
Loss(es): South Carolina, Tennessee
I had Georgia ranked third last week, and with the Missouri and WVU losses I bumped them up to number one. Unlike the media, I don't consider it a great sin that Georgia did not win its conference. The Bulldogs are likely disappointed that they did not get a chance to play for the National Championship, but a Sugar Bowl trip is a nice consolation prize.
2.) Oklahoma (11-2)
Key Wins: Texas, Missouri (twice)
Loss(es): Colorado, Texas Tech
I gave the Sooners a big bump based on their dominating performance against Missouri. When they want to, Oklahoma can beat anyone. West Virginia should prove to be a good challenge for this team.
3.) LSU (11-2)
Key Wins: Virginia Tech, Florida, Tennessee
Loss(es): Kentucky, Arkansas
LSU scored a less-than-convincing win over Tennessee and magically jumped from number 7 in the BCS to number 2. I can't argue against the Tigers' resume, but I'm not convinced they are the number two team in the country. Having a healthy Matt Flynn will certainly help.
4.) Florida (9-3)
Key Wins: Tennessee, Kentucky, Florida State
Loss(es): Auburn, LSU, Georgia
You may be asking yourselves, why is a three-loss team ranked ahead of Ohio State? Well, I consider Florida to be the better team. Two of Florida's losses came to teams listed in my top three. Florida lost to Auburn on a last second field goal, lost to LSU after they made 6/6 fourth down conversions, and did not have a healthy Tebow against Georgia. Looking at recent form, Florida is on fire, having scored forty or more in its last four games, including wins over South Carolina and Florida State.
5.) Ohio State (11-1)
Key Wins: Penn State, Wisconsin, Michigan
Loss(es): Illinois
If Ohio State had to play LSU and Georgia instead of Minnesota and Washington, would they have finished 11-1? Fair or not, I haven't seen enough from Ohio State to believe that they deserve the number one ranking that's been handed to them. Incidentally, Steve Spurrier also ranked Ohio State fifth in his final poll.
6.) Virginia Tech (11-2)
Key Wins: Clemson, Virginia, Boston College
Loss(es): LSU, Boston College
Virginia Tech was impressive in avenging its earlier loss to Boston College. A date with Kansas awaits. Interesting to note that Virginia Tech actually finished first in the BCS computer rankings, but the voters looked at the LSU blowout and never gave Virginia Tech a chance.
7.) USC (10-2)
Key Wins: Oregon St, Cal, Arizona State
Loss(es): Stanford, Oregon
USC has been talked about as one the "hottest" teams right now, but I don't see it. Yes, they were impressive in beating Arizona State, but the week before that they only scraped by Cal (who just lost to Stanford) and the week after the ASU game they struggled a bit before finally putting away UCLA.
8.) Missouri (11-2)
Key Wins: Illinois, Texas Tech, Kansas
Loss(es): Oklahoma (twice)
The Tigers were absolutely shredded by Oklahoma and went from number 1 and playing for the national title to playing in the Cotton Bowl in a few short hours.
9.) WVU (10-2)
Key Wins: Rutgers, Cincinnati, Connecticut
Loss(es): South Florida, Pitt
West Virginia's loss was even more inexplicable, losing to 4-7 Pitt. At home, no less. Sure, Pat White was injured, but that can't be an excuse in a game like this, against an opponent like Pitt.
10.) Hawaii (12-0)
Key Wins: Boise State
Loss(es): None
Hawaii finished its perfect season with an impressive comeback against Washington. Unfortunately, beating a 4-8 Pac-10 team did not provide Hawaii the opportunity to make a statement win. Otherwise, voters very well may have put Hawaii into the title game.
11.) Kansas (11-1)
Key Wins: None
Loss(es): Missouri
Kansas did not play, but I felt compelled to move them down after the team that gave Kansas its only loss was so thoroughly dominated. Kansas doesn't have a much more difficult schedule than Hawaii, so they should be glad they are going to BCS game instead of a perhaps more deserving Missouri team.
12.) Illinois (9-3)
Key Wins: Penn State, Wisconsin, Ohio State
Loss(es): Missouri, Iowa, Michigan
A lucky beneficiary of the antiquated Rose Bowl good ole boys club, Illinois is headed to Pasadena to face USC.
13.) ASU (10-2)
Key Wins: Oregon St, Cal, UCLA
Loss(es): Oregon, USC
Arizona State will face Texas in the Holiday Bowl in what should be one of the more intriguing non-BCS bowls.
14.) Boston College (10-3)
Key Wins: Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Clemson
Loss(es): Florida State, Maryland, Virginia Tech
Unfortunately for Boston College, they were unable to defeat Virginia Tech a second time and lost out on a big BCS payday. Boston College falls all the way to the ChampsSports Bowl, where they face a perennially underachieving Michigan State squad.
15.) Clemson (9-3)
Key Wins: Florida State, Wake Forest, South Carolina
Loss(es): Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, BC
Auburn awaits in the Peach Bowl. Clemson fans will wonder what could have been after another season falls just short of expectations.
16.) Tennessee (9-4)
Key Wins: Georgia, Arkansas, Kentucky
Loss(es): Cal, Florida, Alabama, LSU
Tennessee certainly had its chances against LSU, but two late Erik Ainge interceptions, one for a touchdown, doomed the Vols. Tennessee will make a second consecutive trip to the Outback Bowl.
17.) Texas (9-3)
Key Wins: Texas Tech
Loss(es): Kansas State, Oklahoma, Texas A&M
Texas will have its hands full with Arizona State in the Holiday Bowl.
18.) Cincinnati (9-3)
Key Wins: Oregon St, South Florida, UConn
Loss(es): Louisville, Pitt, West Virginia
This team probably deserved better than the papajohns.com bowl, but if they hang on to head coach Brian Kelly for a few more years, this program will only continue to improve.
19.) South Florida (9-3)
Key Wins: Auburn, West Virginia
Loss(es): Rutgers, Connecticut, Cincinnati
This program didn't even exist ten years, and now they will line up against one of the top Pac-10 teams in the Sun Bowl. Even better, they will probably be favored.
20.) Virginia (9-3)
Key Wins: UConn, Wake Forest
Loss(es): Wyoming, NC State, Virginia Tech
Virginia certainly overachieved this year, exceeding all expectations. The Cavaliers will face off against Texas Tech in the Gator Bowl. Sorry Notre Dame, you won't be seen back in the Gator Bowl for quite a few years.
21.) Auburn (8-4)
Key Wins: Florida, Arkansas
Loss(es): South Florida, Miss St, LSU, Georgia
As mentioned, Auburn will face Clemson in the Peach Bowl. The stadium should be filled with orange, and at least everyone will be cheering for the Tigers.
22.) Arkansas (8-4)
Key Wins: Mississippi State, LSU
Loss(es): Alabama, Kentucky, Auburn, Tennessee
Darren McFadden may have one last chance to put on a Razorbacks jersey, and the whole team should be excited to face off against Missouri in the Cotton Bowl. Arkansas was able to knock the number one team in the country, so they should no problems with an ex-number one, right?
23.) BYU (10-2)
Key Wins: Arizona, Air Force
Loss(es): UCLA, Tulsa
The voters seem to like BYU, and there aren't exactly alot of other quality teams out there. BYU will get a re-match against UCLA in the Las Vegas Bowl.
24.) Texas Tech (8-4)
Key Wins: Texas A&M, Oklahoma
Loss(es): OK State, Missouri, Colorado, Texas
We will see if the Oklahoma win was fluke when the Red Raiders take the field against Virginia in the Gator Bowl.
25.) UCF (10-3)
Key Wins: None
Loss(es): Texas, East Carolina, South Florida
Central Florida finished with ten wins and captured the Conference USA title. Plus, they have a guy (Kevin Smith) who has run for over 2400 yards.

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