Dream Deferred

This season, the NFL has finally achieved its dream: Parity. Sixteen of the NFL’s 32 teams are within three games of .500. With three games left in the season, only eight teams have officially been eliminated from the playoffs (although it’s pretty much over for 5-8 Cincinnati) and, you guessed it, the remaining eight teams have essentially locked up playoff spots.

Of last year’s twelve playoff teams, six will likely not be making a return trip to the postseason, including Chicago, the NFC’s Super Bowl representative. Two 4-12 finishers from last year (Tampa and Cleveland) are currently projected to make the playoff field. Three of last year’s AFC playoff teams (Kansas City, Baltimore and New York) have already been eliminated from the playoff hunt and stand at no better than 4-9.

Only a total of nine teams have failed to make the post-season in the last three years, and only four (Arizona, Buffalo, Detroit, Houston) have failed to make the playoffs this century. For comparison’s sake, Major League Baseball is a little more dynastic, as twelve teams have not qualified for the post-season over the last three years. Of those twelve, nine have not made the playoffs this century. Granted, there are fewer available post-season slots, but the difference is noticeable.

However, given the increasing level of parity, how impressive does that make the New England Patriots look? And perhaps more (un)impressively, how about the Miami Dolphins? These teams clearly did not get the memo on NFL parity. While 0-13 Miami currently holds the fourth longest NFL playoff drought, the Patriots are one Super Bowl win away from creating a dynasty. New England won three Super Bowls over the 2001-2004 seasons and are looking to add a fourth this year. Only three of New England’s wins this year have come by less than seventeen points, and they have been held to under 30 points only twice. Meanwhile, only four New England opponents have put up more than 20 points.

On the flip side, given the number of average (mediocre) teams in this era, it is hard to believe that a team could actually go winless. It is interesting to note that, of the Dolphins thirteen losses, six have come by exactly three points. You would think that one of those games would go the Dolphins’ way sooner or later. Who knows, in Bizarro World, the Dolphins could be 6-7 and still fighting for that last playoff spot. Of course, of the Dolphins seven other losses, six were arguably blowouts. So maybe they really are that bad, and were lucky to even get close in their three-point losses.

Things don’t get any easier for Miami. This weekend, the Dolphins will face an angry Baltimore team riding a seven game losing streak of their own. Miami is currently listed as three point home underdogs. I personally hope to see Miami lose this game so next week they can face a (hold for daunting, spooky music) undefeated New England team. Talk about two worlds colliding.

I don’t have the facts verified, but I’m fairly confident that a team has never gone undefeated this long at the same time another team has gone winless. I’m even more confident that two such teams have never faced each other. I can only imagine what the Vegas line will be on this game. 30 points? No matter what happens, this will make for killer television, and I’d much rather watch a 14-0 team run over an 0-14 team than watch two 5-7 teams cling to faint playoff hopes.

Hopefully, I don’t jinx things and ruin the possibility of such a historic event. Call me old-fashioned, but I think it’s good to have great teams for an extended period of time. If teams can’t compete, too bad for them. For reasons that may never be clear, Arizona and Detroit continue to be the laughingstock of the NFL. It is on them (and only them) to fix their teams instead of hoping to get lucky with high draft picks and poaching players from better but more salary-cap strapped teams.

How satisfying is it to follow a team for years, and then once it finally seems that they are on the rise, the mirage disappears and they fall back down to earth? Then the three year cycle starts over. Take the Bears, for example. Stifling defense and a power running attack propelled the Bears back to the Super Bowl. The Bears are back! But wait, this year the Bears are but one of a dozen middling teams with no real identity. I think the fans deserve more than this Communist, lottery-like system. Congratulations…Tampa Bay! This year you get to go to the Super Bowl! We’ll see you again in three years…

In trying to satisfy everyone, the only thing that can be sure is that no one will end up satisfied. Give me the Patriots and their dominance. Give me the Colts and Peyton Manning running wild every year. Give me the Dolphins and their 0-13 record. Give me the Lions and Cardinals sucking every year. But don’t give me a lottery league.