Euro 2008 Tie-breaker Rules

As a result of Turkey’s thrilling (so I’m told) victory over Switzerland and Portugal’s 3-1 win over the Czech Republic, Portugal is officially into the next round while Switzerland is the first team to be eliminated. That leaves the Czech Republic and Turkey tied with one win and one loss each. To further complicate matters, both teams have the same goal differential, goals scored, and goals allowed. So, if these two teams tie when they face each other on the 15th, what would happen?

According to the official tie-breaking procedures, Czech Republic would advance as a result of some obscure calculation based on recent team performance. Here are the tie-breakers, in order:

(a) Greater number of points obtained in the matches between the teams in question.
(b) Goal difference resulting from the matches between the teams in question (if more than two teams finish equal).
(c) Greater number of goals scored in the matches between the teams in question (if more than two teams finish equal).
(d) Goal difference in all the group matches.
(e) Greater number of goals scored in all the group matches.
(f) Coefficient of points from the last two qualifying competitions for the final rounds of the 2006 World Cup and Euro 2008 (points gained and divided by the number of matches played).
(g) Fair Play conduct of the teams (final tournament).
(h) A drawing of lots by the Organising Committee.

So, if we assume that the two teams tie, that would throw out tie-breakers a thru e. I have no idea how the coefficient of points (f) is calculated, but the Czech Republic is ranked fourth while Turkey is 13. Here is the full list of rankings.

1. 2.417 - Holland
2. 2.409 - Croatia
3. 2.364 - Italy
4. 2.333 - Czech Republic
5. 2.273 - Sweden
6. 2.250 - Romania
6. 2.250 - Germany
8. 2.192 - Portugal
9. 2.182 - Spain
10. 2.167 - Greece
10. 2.167 - Poland
12. 2.091 - France
13. 1.958 - Russia
13. 1.958 - Turkey
15. 1.800 - Switzerland
16. 1.500 - Austria

So, there you go. Turkey will have to go all out for the win, while the Czechs can play a little more conservatively. Don't ask me how Sweden is ranked fifth while Spain is ranked ninth, but them's the rules.

In today’s games, look for Croatia to try to steal a point from Germany. Any point there, or even a 1-0 loss (Poland lost to Germany 2-0) would give the Croatians the edge in advancing to the next round. Don’t expect the world to tune in for Austria-Poland. Austria will be motivated to earn a point in what could be its last winnable match, but I wouldn’t bet on it. A draw (or loss) would effectively end Poland’s chance to advance. I am personally much more excited for Friday’s games, which will feature Italy-Romania and Netherlands-France. Both Italy and France will be desperate to score points after disappointing in their first games.