With all teams having completed two of their three group stage games, one final round of games remains. The group winners have all been decided (Portugal, Croatia, Netherlands, Spain) but the second place finishers are anything but decided. Only Switzerland and Greece have been officially eliminated, so every other team still has a fighting chance - even Austria!
Group A:
As I mentioned before, the Czech Republic and Turkey are dead even in the standing. Given their tie-breaker edge, the Czech Republic advances with a win or a draw. Turkey must win to advance, so clearly they are at a disadvantage. I would give the Czech Republic the edge, but certainly it would not be a shocker for Turkey to advance. Portugal wins the group regardless of the result of their game against the already eliminated Swiss.
Group B:
Surprisingly, Germany are still fighting to advance, courtesy of a shock loss to Croatia. However, with a game against hapless Austria, the Germans need only a draw to advance. Austria will advance if they defeat the Germans, unless Poland defeats Croatia by more goals than Austria's margin. Poland cannot advance unless Austria wins, but they need to win by a larger margin than Austria. The odds of Germany actually losing to Austria have to be minuscule at best, so the discussion is probably moot. A Germany-Portugal quarterfinal looks to be all but certain at this point, with Croatia facing the winner of Turkey/Czech Republic.
Group C:
By virtue of their two impressive wins, the Dutch have claimed first place. I suspect they may not play at full strength against Romania, who need a win or a France-Italy draw to advance. Should Romania lose or draw, the winner of France-Italy would advance. My heart wants Romania to advance, but I have a feeling that the Italians will sneak into the quarterfinals.
Group D:
A little more straightforward than Groups B and C, Spain has already clinched the group while Greece have been eliminated. Sweden and Russia fight for second place. Due to Sweden's superior goal differential, a draw would allow them to advance. Russia must win to advance. I would certainly give Sweden a much better chance of pulling it off, which would give them a date with the Netherlands. Spain has the misfortune of a possible quarterfinal against Romania, Italy, or France.
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