Euro 2008 - Late Preview

Euro 2008 is officially underway, with four games already completed. And surprisingly, no scoreless draws so far! Or even any draws! Never mind, France and Romania just tied 0-0. Anyway, Portugal and Germany both scored impressive wins, while the Czech Republic and Croatia managed to scrape by against the home sides Austria and Switzerland. Let’s be honest - neither one of those teams would have made it through the qualifying stage. They would be extremely fortunate to advance to the next round.

Unfortunately for those of us earning an honest living, the majority of the games will be during our working hours. ESPN360 does offer all the games online (free of charge!) but your company may or may not block this site. Mine does.

Here is my quick breakdown of the groups. Granted, some of the games have already been played, but better late than never I guess.

Group A – Portugal is the clear favorite in this group. After disappointing throughout much of the ‘90’s, Portugal has achieved a high level of success over the last few tournaments, including their appearance in the Euro 2004 final and World Cup 2006 semi-final. Despite his high propensity for diving, Cristiano Ronaldo is regarded as one of the top players in the world. They did not play exceptionally well in qualifying and finished second to Poland in their group. Turkey, Czech Republic and Switzerland are not exactly a murderer’s row, and should not provide much of a challenge to Portugal. Turkey is likely the next most talented team, but they have already suffered a 2-0 loss to Portugal in the opening round of games. The Czech Republic is the not the same team that advanced to the Euro 2004 semi-final, as age and injury have slowed them down. However, they did finish ahead of tourney favorite Germany in qualifying, so perhaps it is too early to count them out.

Group B – Germany looked typically efficient in dispatching Poland, and should continue their run against European minnows Croatia and Austria. I feel that Germany may be a tad overrated, but given the draw, Germany has a fair shot to advance all the way to the final. The Poland-Croatia match should determine the group’s second place finisher. At the moment, I would give Croatia the edge, given their more impressive qualifying run, which included a first place finish over Russia and England (which ultimately knocked Beckham and Co. out of the tournament) and a virtually perfect finish. Their only loss was after they had already mathematically qualified for the tournament. Austria will be lucky to even score a goal.

Group C – Fairly named the Group of Death, France, Italy and the Netherlands all feel they have a legitimate chance to win the tournament. Romania has the unfortunate luck to be the fourth seed in this death-trap. In any other group they might be favored to finish second, but will likely end up at the bottom here. Italy is riding its World Cup 2006 win, but a few key injuries leave the Azzurri a little more exposed than they would like to be. In an odd coincidence, all four of these teams came from only two qualifying groups. France and Italy were both in the same qualifying group, while Romania and the Netherlands also came from the same group. Romania actually finished ahead of the Dutch, but I find it hard to believe they will do much damage in this tournament. But no finish would surprise me, especially given that Romania just managed a draw with France.

Group D – Spain is absolutely the clear favorite to win the group, but given their history of underachievement, I wouldn’t bet on it. Greece is somehow ranked eighth in the FIFA world rankings (presumably because of their Euro 2004 win) but has not done a lot since then. They rolled through qualifying, but they had the good fortune of being placed in the easiest qualifying group. Sweden and Russia both finished second in their respective qualifying groups and wouldn’t appear to be formidable opponents. Russia (along with Croatia) prevented England from reaching the final stage of tournament, and may have a slight edge over opponents Sweden and Greece.

Quarterfinals:
Q1 – Portugal vs. Croatia – It doesn’t really matter who advances from Group B. Portugal should take this game.
Q2 – Germany vs. Czech Republic – In a good old-fashioned slugfest, Germany figures to advance from this round and head to a semi-final matchup against Portugal.
Q3 – Italy vs. Sweden – A little tougher to predict than the previous two games, this game has numerous possibilities. Whoever wins Group C should advance to the semi-final.
Q4 – Spain vs. Netherlands – Spain is nearly a lock, but France or Romania (or Italy) could easily replace the Netherlands as Spain’s opponent. I would love to see Spain finally win a tournament, but I’ve been burned too many times. The top two finishers in Group C will have a re-match to advance to the final.

Semi-finals:
S1 – Portugal vs. Germany – Portugal is displaying excellent form and will simply run past the Germans. If Germany plays tight defense (which they normally do) they could frustrate the Portuguese and perhaps score a quick counter-attack goal or win in shootouts. But they skill of the Portuguese midfield should open up chances.
S2 – Italy vs. Netherlands – Italy has the skill, but they will need to display some offensive flair. Italian soccer has a tendency to be unwatchable, despite all their talent.

Championship:
Portugal vs. Italy – This game will be decided by the team with the better flopping technique. The Italians have been doing it for years, but with young Cristiano Ronaldo the Portuguese are now a flopping force to be reckoned with. In this case, youth is served and Portugal walks away holding the trophy.

Editor's Note: I'm well aware that Italy is in the process of getting their ass kicked by the Netherlands, but I didn't really feel like going back and changing anything