Conference Tournament Preview

With the regular season now completed, attention turns to the individual conference tournaments. Usually good for one or two surprises, the conference tournaments are a great blend of competition and desperation. For a great majority of the teams still playing in the tournaments, this is win-or-go-home time. For every Duke and UNC that has a bid locked up, there is an LSU or Georgia Tech that won’t go anywhere unless it continues to win.

Let’s take a look at some of the more intriguing tournaments:

ACC – The top four teams in this conference (UNC, Duke, Clemson, Virginia Tech) get a first-round bye, and you’d have to be crazy to think that UNC or Duke won’t get to the semi-finals. Assuming that Clemson can get by Maryland (or BC) in the quarter-finals, they may prove to be a tough matchup for Duke. After all, they took UNC to overtime twice this year. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a UNC-Clemson re-match in the ACC Final.

Atlantic 10 – This is probably the most difficult conference to figure out. Certainly Xavier looks to be the favorite, but it won’t be easy for them to navigate three straight wins. Of the twelve teams in the A-10 tournament, I wouldn’t be surprised to see any one of them win it, except perhaps Fordham (11-16, 6-10). For Xavier to win, they may have to go through Dayton, St. Joe’s and Massachusetts, arguably the four toughest teams in the A-10. And don’t count out two-seed Temple, who should at least get to the semi-finals.

Big 12 – The top four teams (Kansas, Texas, Kansas State, Oklahoma) have a bye and the luxury of an extra day of rest while the other eight teams battle it out. The winner will almost certainly come from that group, although Texas A&M or Baylor could sneak into the semi-finals. Texas and Kansas have to be considered the overwhelming favorites and look likely to meet in the final.

Big East – Similar to the ACC, A-10, and Big 12, the top four teams (Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame, UConn) get a first-round bye. Unlike the Big 12, the depth of this conference means that nearly every team has at least a shot of winning the tournament. Villanova or Syracuse will both be fighting for a selection berth and could knock off top seed Georgetown in the quarterfinals. Pitt could very well take down two-seed Louisville. Marquette blew out Notre Dame earlier this year. Would an upset in the tournament be so unlikely? Expect this tournament to be exciting and hard-fought.

Big Ten – Yawn. The top four teams (Wisconsin, Indiana, Purdue, Michigan State) are the clear favorites and I would be surprised if any of them did not reach the semi-finals. My guess says the final will be Wisconsin-Indiana, but it won’t matter since the favored four have all locked up bids anyway.

Pac 10 – With the exception of Oregon State (0-18 in conference play) each team has a chance to win at least a couple of games. UCLA is the clear favorite, but could Cal surprise them in the quarterfinals? Sure. Arizona has to be considered a sleeper. With a gimme first round game against Oregon State, Arizona could surprise an overrated Stanford team in the quarters, and then Washington State or Oregon would await in the semi-final. On the other side of the bracket, a UCLA-USC semi-final is a distinct possibility.

SEC – Although Tennessee is the favorite, half of the teams have a chance to win it all. Kentucky, Florida, and Ole Miss will be playing with desperation, trying to garner of the last at-large bids. If Tennessee plays with complacency, they could find themselves out early. Three of the four potential quarterfinals could have huge at-large implications: Vanderbilt-Arkansas, Mississippi State-Florida, Kentucky-Ole Miss. Throw Tennessee in the mix and any one of those teams could win the SEC.

A few of the smaller conferences are in action today and tomorrow. Fans of bubble teams are wringing their hands after watching Gonzaga and South Alabama fall last night. However, Davidson managed to hold on and claim an auto bid. Butler goes up against Cleveland State tonight for the Horizon League automatic bid, which could be a tough game for Butler. Cleveland State already beat Butler once in January and gave them a good battle on Butler’s home court a couple of weeks ago.