Bubble Watch Update

Many of the smaller conferences have wrapped up regular season play by now. The major conference teams have at most two or three games remaining. At this point, more bubble teams seem to be losing rather than winning, so picking the last couple of slots may be more an excercise in deciding who has slid less over the last month. Mid-major teams like Southern Illinois, UAB, and New Mexico could benefit if more marginal 'major conference' teams continue to perform poorly.

The Big 12, A-10, and ACC seem to be struggling at the moment, while the Big East looks like the most dominant conference. Its top five teams are virtual locks, and will likely send a total of eight teams. The SEC and Big Ten are struggling outside of the elite (Tennesee, MSU, Indiana, Wisconsin) and will likely recieve fewer bids then they are historically accustomed to seeing.

Small Conference Leaders (15)
These teams absolutely will not make the tournament unless they win their conference tourney. The current regular season leader is listed for each conference, but you can throw that out the window once you get to single elimination.

America East – MD Baltimore County (RPI: 88)
Atlantic Sun – Belmont (87)
Big Sky – Portland St. (96)
Big South – UNC Asheville (131) Winthrop and UNC Asheville finished the Big South regular season tied for first after UNC Asheville beat Winthrop on the road, with Asheville having the slight RPI edge.
Big West – Cal St. Northridge (103)
Ivy League – Cornell (68)
MEAC – Morgan St (124)
Metro Atlantic – Siena (79)
Northeast – Robert Morris (110) After finishing the season on a 13 game win streak, Robert Morris was finally able to catch and pass Wagner and Sacred Heart in the final regular season standings.
Ohio Valley – Austin Peay (91)
Patriot League – American (101)
Southland – Lamar (133)
Summit League – Oral Roberts (65)
SWAC – Alabama St. (218)
WAC – Boise St. (98)

Small Conference Leaders who actually do have a chance of making the final field even without winning their conference tournament (SCLWADHACOMTFFEWWTCT) (8)
Colonial – VCU (42)
Horizon – Butler (19)
MAC – Kent St . (35)
Missouri Valley – Drake (14)
Mountain West – BYU (25)
Southern - Davidson (44)
Sun Belt – South Alabama (28) Defeating Western Kentucky on the road left South Alabama in sole possession of first place, and they won their next four to clinch the regular season title.
West Coast – Gonzaga (31) The Zags move into first place after beating St. Mary’s fairly handily. However, both teams look likely to make the field.

Mid-Major At-Large (12, 4 Bids)
Probably In:
West Coast – St. Mary’s (32) With two losses in their last three games, St. Mary’s profile is perhaps not quite as strong as they’d like to be completely comfortable going into the conference tourney. Wins over Drake, Oregon, Gonzaga, and Seton Hall may come in handy if they slip.

Better Be Careful:
Mountain West – UNLV (27)
Missouri Valley – Illinois St (34) This team finished on a tear, knocking off Wright State and MVC rivals Creighton and Southern Illinois. They do have a few questionable losses, but they have a strong profile and the solid finish should put them in.
Missouri Valley – Southern Illinois (48) With so many major conference teams trying to play themselves into the NIT, maybe it’s time to give Southern Illinois a look. They did lose their home finale against Illinois State and have a total of 13 losses, but they also played one of the top ten most difficult schedules. They recorded wins over Mississippi State, St. Mary’s, Western Kentucky, and Drake.

Outside Looking In:
Sun Belt – Western Kentucky (49) With no wins over top-100 RPI teams, Western Kentucky will realistically have to win the Sun Belt tournament to make the field, despite a 22-6 record.
Missouri Valley – Creighton (50) This team has a much more consistent profile than Southern Illinois. They had only two losses outside the top 100, but no true marquee win. They beat Oral Roberts in bracket-buster play, and knocked off St. Joe’s in OT early in the season.
Conference USA – UAB (51) May get a look, but with five losses to teams outside of the top 100, the odds are long. They do have wins over Kentucky, Houston, and Cincinnati.
Mountain West – New Mexico (53)
Southland - Stephen F. Austin (61)

Thanks For Playing:
Conference USA - Houston (67) Losing to East Carolina (RPI 252) may have sealed Houston’s fate. They have only one top-100 RPI win (Kentucky), although up until the ECU loss they had only lost to tournament-worthy teams. Houston will have to win the Conference USA tournament. Just making the conference final won’t be enough.
Horizon - Wright State (71) Probably no shot to begin with, but Wright State ended its regular season with three straight losses.

Potential One Seeds (7)
C-USA – Memphis (2)
SEC – Tennessee (1)
Big 12 – Kansas (8)
Big 12 – Texas (5)
Pac-10 – UCLA (9)
ACC – Duke (4)
ACC – North Carolina (3)

A-10 (6, 2 bids)
Definitely In:
Xavier (6)

Better Be Careful:
UMass (38) Unlike most of its A-10 brethren, UMass has actually won a few games lately and is on a four game win streak. They swept Rhode Island and hold wins over Houston and Syracuse. By no means a sure bet, UMass still has a pretty good chance if they can win their final two games and make a decent conference tourney run.

Outside Looking In:
Dayton (36) Having won only four of their last twelve games, Dayton is in big trouble. They must win their final two and probably advance to the conference final to have a chance.
St. Joe’s (52) Other than sweeping UMass, St. Joe’s has done very little. Since beating Villanova, St. Joseph’s has gone 2-4, including two home defeats to mid-tier A-10 teams La Salle and St. Louis.
Rhode Island (55) This team has lost six of its last eight games. Without a true marquee win, Rhode Island may have to win the A-10 tourney to make the final field.

Thanks For Playing:
Temple (80) Not much of a chance to being with, but Temple blew any shot by losing at home to Fordham. Their overall record now stands at 15-12.

Big Ten (5, 4 Bids)
Definitely In:
Wisconsin (11)
Michigan St. (15)
Indiana (16)
Purdue (29)

Outside Looking In:
Ohio State (54) How the (not-so) mighty have fallen. Once a near-lock to make the final 65, Ohio State has lost its last four to fall to 8-8 in conference play. And despite those eight Big Ten wins, only one (Minnesota) has come over a top-100 foe. The Buckeyes can still pull it together with wins against Purdue and Michigan State in its last two games.

SEC (6, 3 bids)
Definitely In:
Vanderbilt (10)

Better Be Careful:
Mississippi State (37) 11-3 in conference play, Mississippi State is certainly benefiting from a down year in the SEC. They lack an impressive non-conference win but haven’t lost to a team outside the RPI top 100.
Arkansas (39) Beating Vanderbilt stopped the Razorback’s recent slide, but they aren’t out of trouble yet. A win at Ole Miss on Tuesday could make their bid a sure thing.

Outside Looking In:
Ole Miss (45)
Kentucky (59) It’s looking more and more like Kentucky is starting to find itself as a team. They may have over-extended themselves early in the season, but hold a 10-3 conference record.
Florida (62) Losing at home to Mississippi State hurts a reeling Florida profile. Their conference record is decent (8-6), but only two of those wins came against top-100 SEC teams. Florida has a chance to improve its profile with Tennessee and Kentucky on the schedule this week.

Big East (11, 8 Bids)
Definitely In:
Georgetown (7)
UConn (13)
Notre Dame (20)
Marquette (18)
Louisville (15)

Probably In:
Pittsburgh (23) Probably not in the same league as the teams listed above, but winning at Syracuse may have given Pitt some separation from the rest of the Big East field.

Better Be Careful:
West Virginia (41)
Syracuse (57)

Outside Looking In:
Villanova (63)
Seton Hall (73)

Big 12 (7, 6 bids)
Probably In:
Oklahoma (30) They don’t have a great conference record (7-7) but they did sweep Baylor and Texas Tech. Their win yesterday against Texas A&M was very much needed. Oklahoma can also fall back on its impressive non-conference wins over Arkansas, Gonzaga, and West Virginia.

Better Be Careful:
Baylor (33)
Oklahoma (34)
Kansas State (43) Suddenly not looking so great, K State has dropped its last four. Kansas State also lacks non-conference heft, with its most notable win coming against Cal. Their next two games (Colorado, Iowa St.) are relatively easy, so a failure in either one would be damaging.
Texas A&M (46) Like Kansas State, Texas A&M has hit a bit of a wall, losing four of its last five to fall to 7-7 in the Big 12. The remaining two games are very tough (at Baylor, Kansas), and a 7-9 conference record might seal their NIT fate. However, they don’t have a terrible loss, and they did beat Ohio State and Oral Roberts in non-conference play.
Texas Tech (47) These guys have to be mentioned in the same breath as Texas A&M and Kansas State now. Their RPI rankings and conference records are almost identical. Coming off of a win over Texas, Texas Tech just might be able to sneak into the final field. With its last two games at Kansas and at home against Baylor, they will be hard-pressed to keep their momentum going.

Outside Looking In:
Oklahoma State (72) Is it too late for the Cowboys? They have won five straight, including wins over Baylor, Texas A&M, and Kansas. They lack a major non-conference win, but could pull to 9-7 in the Big 12 if they can beat Oklahoma at home and Texas on the road in their last two games.
Thanks For Playing:
Missouri (99)

Pac-10 (7, 5 bids)
Definitely In:
Stanford (17)

Probably In:
Washington State (21)

Better Be Careful:
Arizona (22) Sure, they have the number one SOS, but the loss column has grown considerably. They can claim wins against Texas A&M, UNLV, and Houston, as well as a sweep against Washington State. However, their conference record is only 7-8 and two of their three remaining games will be a challenge (UCLA at home, at Oregon).
USC (40) Solid profile with non-conference wins against Oklahoma and Southern Illinois, USC probably just needs to win one of its last two (Stanford, Cal) to be sure of a bid. Will the opening home loss to Mercer (RPI 315) come back to haunt them?
Arizona State (66) Not playing very well as of late, but if they can beat Oregon and Oregon State to finish the season, they will have a 10-8 Pac-10 conference record. They swept Arizona and have wins over Stanford, USC, and an impressive non-conference win over Xavier.

Outside Looking In:
Oregon (60)

Thanks For Playing:
Cal (94) 6-10 conference record says it all.

ACC (9, 3 Bids)
Probably In:
Clemson (24)

Better Be Careful:
Miami (26) One of the few ACC teams trying to play its way into the tournament, not out of it. Non-conference wins over Mississippi State and VCU are looking better and better. Despite the early season ACC slump, Miami could end up at 9-7, with two winnable games coming up this week.
Maryland (51)

Outside Looking In:
Virginia Tech (56)
Florida State (69) No chance in hell right now, but if they win their last two (at UNC, Miami) then maybe they’ll be a marginal candidate.
Wake Forest (84) Since beating Duke, Wake has lost its last three. The home win over BYU is the only win worth mentioning in a pretty soft non-conference schedule. If they win their last two, Wake can get to 8-8 in the ACC, but that might not be enough.

Thanks For Playing:
Georgia Tech (77) Two for their last eight, and the last home loss to Wake Forest was especially damaging. If they run the table, they’ll still only have an 8-8 conference record. Oh, and they currently have a 12-15 record.
NC State (85) Losing seven in a row tends to bring down the tournament profile a bit.
Boston College (112) See above description. Boston College has only won four games in the year 2008.

Last Four In:
Texas Tech
Arizona State
Southern Illinois
Maryland

Last Four Out:
Florida
Ohio State
Virginia Tech
Dayton

Total Bid Allocation:
ACC - 5
Atlantic 10 - 2
Big East - 8
Big Ten - 4
Big 12 - 8
Missouri Valley - 3
Mountain West - 2
Pac 10 - 6
SEC - 4
WCC - 2