11th Hour Bubble Watch

After the first day of major conference play, the bubble is really starting to harden for a few teams. Syracuse probably sealed its fate after losing to fellow bubbler Villanova. West Virginia bolstered its chances by avoiding an embarrassing defeat to 12th seeded Providence.

As it stands, the bubble is not quite as fluid as the experts might lead you to believe. 21 bids have or will be accounted for by one-bid conferences. Another 20 teams are absolute locks, plus another five that are essentially locks.

That leaves 19 bids for the rest of the field (less if an unexpected power conference team wins an automatic bid) but 10 of those bids are likely spoken for by teams that merely need to avoid embarrassment in the first round of their tournaments. Another set of teams could clinch a bid with two wins (including UMass, Oregon and Texas A&M) but their standing is a little shakier. It’s definitely not a given that the teams in this category will survive. Throw in a couple of mid-major teams with good profiles but failed to win their conference auto-bid and that leaves ten-plus teams fighting for one last at-large bid. If Kent St. or Xavier fails to win their respective conferences, all the teams fighting for that last at-large spot will instead be fighting for a top spot in the NIT. Probably not what they had in mind…

As you may be aware, this is St. Patrick’s Day weekend. I’d love to provide daily updates on the conference tourney action (I’m only being half-sarcastic) but I’ll be in Chicago swilling green beer and pretending to be Irish for a day. So… this will probably be my last update before Selection Sunday.

Keep an eye on the Atlantic 10, SEC, and Pac 10 tournaments. I have a feeling those tournaments will have the biggest impact on bubble teams. While the Big East may be the most competitive tournament, most of the teams (aside from Villanova) know if they’ll be going to the Dance by now.

With all that said, this is how I see things at the moment:

Already In (14):
Cornell, Belmont, Winthrop, George Mason, Butler, Siena, Drake, Austin Peay, Davidson, Oral Roberts, Western Kentucky, San Diego, Portland State, Mount St. Mary’s,

Pending One-Bid Conferences (7):
America East, Big West, MEAC, Patriot League, Southland, SWAC, WAC

Absolute Locks – Major Conference AP Top 25 and/or any team within RPI Top 20 (20):
North Carolina, Duke, Kansas, Texas, Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan State, Purdue, Georgetown, Louisville, Connecticut, Notre Dame, Marquette, UCLA, Stanford, Washington State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Memphis, Xavier

Should Be Fine (5):
Gonzaga, BYU, Clemson, Oklahoma, USC

Decent Shape (7):
The pundits and/or numbers like these teams. Despite flawed profiles, they should get in, barring something embarrassing happening.
Kansas State, Baylor, Pitt, West Virginia, Mississippi State, Miami, Kent State

One More Win and They’re In (3):
Kentucky, Arkansas, Ohio State

Two More Wins To Be Safe (6):
Massachusetts, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, UNLV, Arizona, Oregon

Hoping Other Teams Slip Up (2):
St. Mary’s, South Alabama

If you’ve been keeping track, that’s 64 spots accounted for thus far, which means that the teams listed below could be competing for one spot. Of course, that assumes the previously mentioned teams will take care of business.

Praying Other Teams Slip Up (3):
Illinois State, VCU, Syracuse

Need a Deep Run (11):
Arizona State, Florida, Villanova, St. Joe’s, Dayton, Temple, Rhode Island, New Mexico, Maryland, Virginia Tech, UAB

Editors Note: After Rhode Island's first round tournament exit (its seventh loss in its last eight games) Rhode Island is officially done. The RPI of 77 and 7-9 conference record don't help, either.