And...Boom Goes the Dynamite!

March Madness is finally here! After putting up with months of ESPN highlights featuring hockey and NASCAR, finally something worth watching! Unlike NCAA Football, which has a two-team playoff and complicated formulas for selecting its participants, NCAA Basketball has it just about perfect. Every small conference, no-budget Division I team has the same chance of winning as the great powers. Granted, the last “mid-major” team to actually win it all was UNLV in 1990, but March Madness has seen its share of upsets and intrigue, including media darlings 11-seed George Mason and their Final Four run in 2006.

Perhaps this year is no different from years past, but the top seeds look really strong. While the two and three seeds also look strong, there is a clear delineation. I have to confess that I went with the chalk and have all four number ones in my Final Four. I usually try to avoid doing that, for two reasons:

First of all, it’s boring. Every boring schmoe out there picks all the #1 seeds to advance, so for me to win I feel like I have to do something different. And besides, it makes me feel clever when I pick that #7 seed to make the Sweet 16, or that #5 to reach the Final Four.

Of course, the second reason is simple statistics. In the history of the 64-team field (and 65 team field), at least one #1 seed has failed to make the Final Four. Even if you assume that a #1 seed has a 90% chance of winning each individual game they play, over four games that will factor to a 65% chance of making the Final Four. The overall probability of all four teams advancing to the Final Four with 65% odds is then 18%. And clearly, that is being very generous. The more realistic probabilities likely vary by round. Let’s say 98% for the first round, 80% for the second round, 75% for the Sweet 16, and 70% for the Regional Finals. Assuming those probabilities, a #1 seed has a 41% chance of advancing to the Final Four. The probability of ALL four #1 seeds advancing would then be a minuscule 2.8%. Such a probability is not so far-fetched, considering we have had 32 straight years without an all #1 seed Final Four.

Sooooo, with all that said, I’m “defying the odds” and taking all the #1 seeds. It’s still the most statistically likely scenario, as opposed to trying to find that three, four, or five seed that will inevitably crash the party. I don’t see Duke or Georgetown as much of a threat to reach the Final Four, but Texas and Tennessee have proven that they can knock off top competition. The Big East trio of Louisville, Pitt, and UConn would be the next set of potential party-crashers. In the South Region, UNC, Louisville, and Tennessee all play a similar style of offense, so whichever team’s shots are falling could win that region. Pitt has shown it can win big-time games by winning the Big East, but they may have used up all their good luck for the year with that run. UConn’s name gets tossed around a lot, and if they can somehow find a way to get past UCLA, they have a manageable path to the Final Four. Of course, UConn could just as easily get upset by Drake in the second round.

Last-minute thoughts on the regions:
South – I already mentioned that the Final Four berth will come down to UNC, Louisville, and Tennessee. Butler is a bit under-seeded and could prove to be a tough matchup for Tennessee, as their plodding half-court offense is the anti-thesis of Tennessee’s high-flying offensive machine. Mid-major sensations Winthrop and George Mason would face each other in the second round if they both find a way to advance, but I don’t see Washington State and Notre Dame slipping up.

Midwest - While I have picked Kansas to win the tournament, I see Clemson as the most dangerous team seeded outside of the top four. In fact, I would argue that they are more dangerous than all of the four seeds as well. Kansas-Clemson could be one the most exciting sweet 16 match-ups, if Clemson can get by Vanderbilt. Another team to watch is USC. As has been mentioned quite frequently, USC has the “’Melo Factor” and is hoping to ride freshman sensation OJ Mayo to a title. Honestly, I don’t see it happening, but they should be fun to watch. I expect the efficient and organized Wisconsin squad to contain OJ Mayo and advance to the Sweet 16, where Georgetown would await. I don’t believe I’d like to watch a Georgetown-Wisconsin game, with a final score probably in the range of 59-55.

South – Texas is the trendy pick for this region, but I am sticking with Memphis. Pitt has been on a roll, but can they really be expected to win the Big East AND advance to the Final Four? Michigan State has been streaky, while I can’t shake the feeling that Stanford is overrated. They may have two seven-footers, but I’m not sure if they can handle quicker teams. I could see Marquette surprising Stanford if they can work the outside shooting. However, the Regional final should come down to Texas and Memphis.

West – This region is UCLA’s to lose, and anything less that a Final Four appearance will be an enormous disappointment. Duke and Xavier are probably the weakest two and three seeds in the tournament, which means a team like Arizona or West Virginia could sneak into the Regional Final. If UCLA can get past UConn, I don’t see them losing until possibly the National Championship game.

Unfortunately, this doesn’t look like a great year for mid-majors. Butler is under-seeded and will be hard-pressed to even get out the first round. UNLV and Kent State play each other in the 8/9 game and would then face Kansas. Two other mid-majors in Drake and Western Kentucky are pitted against each other, but in a best case scenario won’t get any further than the Sweet 16. But like I said, it seems like we have this conversation every year and then someone like Davidson will make a magical run to the Regional Finals. I hope that we see another run, but most of all I’m just exciting to see some great basketball.