WC 2010 Qualification Weekend Preview

After a brief hiatus, World Cup 2010 qualification is about to swing back into action. With the exception of Asia, every confederation will be holding matches in the next week. Most teams will play two games, with the first generally this Saturday and the second on Wednesday.

While all the qualifying games are important, the African qualifiers have perhaps the most significance. These two games represent the last two games of the semi-final round, which will ultimately eliminate over half of the remaining teams and leave five groups of four. Cameroon and Nigeria are virtually assured of advancing, but nearly every other African nation is still fighting for the right to move to the next round. Notable teams looking especially precarious are Angola (WC ’06), Tunisia (WC ’98, ’02, ’06; ’04 Africa Cup of Nations winner) and Egypt (’06, ’08 Africa Cup of Nations winner). Given the convoluted method that the African confederation has chosen for its qualification process, it is virtually impossible to tell which teams will advance until all the games are completed.

CONCACAF is also in action this weekend, and is highlighted by the United States trip to Cuba. USA will also host Trinidad & Tobago. Two other Group 1 games (T&T – Guatemala, Guatemala – Cuba) should serve to provide some separation for the likely second-place finisher, whoever that might be. Expect the teams that performs the best in those two games to ultimately advance to the CONCACAF final round. Other key games include Mexico v. Jamaica (9/6) and Honduras v. Jamaica (9/10). Honduras will need to win at least one of its games (the other is at Canada) if they want to stay alive, after dropping a tough game at Mexico. Costa Rica should easily wins its group, and whoever else advances out of Haiti, Suriname, and El Salvador will certainly finish in last place in the final round.

The majority of soccer fans will be most excited to see the European qualification process get underway, as all teams play two games this week. With a large number of weaker teams and most teams playing ten games, each game has relatively less importance. Barring a few upsets here and there, I expect that the European qualification will proceed as it has for the last several decades. Only two Saturday games are worth mentioning: Israel-Switzerland and Austria-France. A win by Israel would give them a huge edge towards qualification right off the bat (Switzerland and Greece are the only other viable competitors) while France will look to avoid embarrassment on the road against a decent opponent. Wednesday (9/10) offers a little bit more excitement, as France will once again face a tough test, this time on its home soil against Serbia. Croatia hosts England, and you can bet that the English will be eager for some revenge after Croatia eliminated them from Euro 2008 qualifying. Portugal hosts Denmark, which is the only other highlight among a rather drab group of games.

Lastly, CONMEBOL (South America) has a few key games of its own. Argentina-Paraguay is probably the most exciting, but since it’s highly likely that both teams will advance regardless, it shouldn’t impact the overall standings. All eyes will be on Brazil, given that they are currently sitting in fifth place (which would require they to have a play-in against a CONCACAF team) and travel to face Chile on Sunday. Chile currently sits one point ahead of the Brazilians in the standings, so Brazil will be especially anxious to score some points. Another key matchup will be Colombia-Uruguay. Both teams seems to be in a constant battle to be South America’s fifth-best team, and this game could provide some needed separation for one of the sides. With Argentina, Paraguay, and Brazil typically dominating South America, Colombia and Uruguay are often left to duke it out for one the remaining slots. Colombia is currently third while Uruguay sits in sixth place, but only two points separate the teams in the standings.

Well, now that you now all the games, good luck trying to watch them on tv. As far as I know, only the USA games will be televised here, unless you get some crazy satellite channels I don't know about. USA-Cuba (9/6) will be on ESPN Classic at 8:00 and USA-T&T (9/10) will be on ESPN2 at 8:00. Enjoy!

Laces out, Dan!

It’s always easy to blame the kicker, but Vol fans who watched the UCLA debacle know that the blame can’t all be heaped onto Daniel Lincoln. Sure, he missed three field goals (four, if you include one miss that was nullified by a penalty and resulted in a punt) but he is hardly the sole culprit. It should be noted that two (or three, including the no-go) of his misses were from over 50 yards, although he definitely should have made the 35 yarder in OT.

Let’s recap: Tennessee intercepted four wayward Kevin Craft passes in the first half alone, including one that was returned for a touchdown. They held UCLA to a total of 29 rushing yards. Yet somehow, they went into halftime holding only a 14-7 lead. In the second half, they allowed a rejuvenated UCLA passing offense to take the lead before UT tied the game on a last-second field goal. Of course, Tennessee ultimately lost in overtime, but it seemed a foregone conclusion before the players even took the field.

The highly-touted Jonathan Crompton looked as if he had never faced a live pass rush, and continually scattered passes high, short and wide of his intended targets. He ended up completing 19 of 41passes for a paltry 46% completion percentage. Even when things did seem to be going well, the Vols never failed to shoot themselves in the foot with an ill-timed penalty, racking up nine to UCLA’s two. One of the worst sequences was early in the fourth quarter, when Tennessee had returned a punt to UCLA’s 25 yard line. After a short rush and then an incomplete pass, Crompton took a sack that effectively pushed the Vols out of field goal range. They tried the kick anyway, and even though Lincoln missed the attempt, it wouldn’t have counted due to a delay of game penalty. Instead, the Vols wound up punting from the UCLA 38, which ended up going out of the end zone. Even with the punt, Tennessee only gained six yards of field position from their original line of scrimmage.

Turnovers ultimately proved more costly for Tennessee than UCLA, as the Vols fumbled the ball at the UCLA 5 yards line early in the third quarter. A touchdown would have put Tennessee up 21-7 and could have drastically affected the momentum of the game. Even a field goal would have made it a two-score game. Meanwhile, aside from the interception return for a touchdown, Tennessee could only manage two missed 50+ yard field goals off of UCLA’s three other interceptions.

After running UCLA off the field in the first half, the defense seemed content to sit back and let Kevin Craft pick them apart, rarely rushing more than four down linemen. Tennessee never seemed to adjust to UCLA’s zone-beating pass attack, and the Bruins chewed the Vols up ten yards at a time in the critical fourth quarter. Despite no threat of a running game, Tennessee did nothing to prevent Kevin Craft from completing the little hook routes and crosses over the middle that kept their drives alive. In fact, UCLA was able to construct two nearly identical touchdown drives of 70 and 80 yards each in the fourth quarter. I can only recall one time when Tennessee was able to sack the quarterback, although there may have been one or two more, but UCLA and their coaching staff essentially had their way with the UT defense in the waning minutes.

I suppose I could go on and on about Tennessee’s blunders. While credit is in due for Kevin Craft and his gutsy second half play, the Volunteers really threw this game away. One thing to consider: last year started off with a disappointing Pac-10 loss, and UT ended up in the SEC Championship. Even after humiliating losses to Florida and Alabama left them at 4-3, Tennessee was able to climb back and win five straight. Unfortunately, I think Tennessee may need a little more luck if they want to reach eight wins again this year.

In other SEC news, the conference generally turned in impressive performances. Florida, LSU and Georgia dominated, as expected, but Alabama delivered a truly head-turning performance by demolishing ACC pre-season favorite Clemson. Kentucky also performed surprisingly well in holding rival Louisville to a safety in a 27-2 romp. Aside from Tennessee’s disappointing turn, Arkansas and Mississippi State looked like SEC pretenders after their showings. Arkansas barely held off Western Illinois in Bobby Petrino’s debut, while Mississippi State couldn’t even match that, losing to Louisiana Tech.

Coming up later this week is a not-too-surprising dearth of quality games, as most of the top teams are tuning up against lightweights, ala OSU-Ohio, LSU-Troy, and Texas-UTEP. The most interesting SEC matchup should be the Thursday night battle between South Carolina and Vanderbilt. Expect a low scoring game: Vanderbilt won 17-6 last year at South Carolina. As I mentioned before, a Vandy win would go a big way towards getting the Commodores to their first bowl since 1982. Other top matchups include Florida-Miami (which would have been a great game five years ago) and West Virginia-East Carolina. East Carolina is coming off of a big win against Virginia Tech and would like to pull off two major upsets in a row. Beyond on that, you won't be missing much.

One final thought: Georgia fans - don't look past Central Michigan. They travel to Athens to face the Bulldogs, and this CMU team is better than most people realize. Granted, last year they were blown out by Kansas and Clemson by a combined score of 132-21, but QB Dan LeFevour is a talent and helped bring the 2007 MAC title to Central Michigan. Then again, Georgia has a pretty good history of dealing with highly touted non-BCS passing attacks...

SEC West Preview

Since the college season has already gotten started, I better get on my game with these SEC previews. One division down, one to go. I'll be honest - I have much less interest in the SEC West. The Mississippi and Alabama schools really don't interest me, and for the most part have been mediocre for the last ten years with the exception of a couple of good Auburn seasons. LSU, of course, has come on strongly, but as a Tennessee fan, I'm primarily concerned with seeing the Vols win the East, competing with Florida and Georgia. I still hate Alabama, but they haven't been relevant for awhile now.

With that said, let's get right into it. Here is how I see the SEC West finishing:

Auburn 10-2 (6-2)
LSU 10-2 (6-2)
Alabama 7-5 (4-4)
Mississippi State 6-6 (3-5)
Arkansas 6-6 (3-5)
Ole Miss 5-7 (2-6)

I can't say for sure whether LSU or Auburn will come out on top. Auburn does have a slightly easier schedule, since they host LSU and play Tennessee instead of Florida, so I would be tempted to give them any tie-breaker edge. However, I'm still not 100% sold on Auburn's new spread offense, and whether they can shed their history of offensive ineptitude. LSU may struggle without a proven QB, and the rest of the division still has a multitude of questions to answer. Can Arkansas be successful without Darren McFadden and Felix Jones? Will Mississippi State be able to replicate their surprise season? Will Ole Miss' transfer QB solve their offensive woes? Can Alabama succeed with all of its young talent?

Auburn
Expected Finish: 10-2 (6-2)
In addition to the usual grind of the SEC schedule, Auburn will have to face West Virginia in late October, when both teams are reaching their peaks. Auburn is somewhat fortunate that their three toughest games will all be at home - Georgia, LSU, and Tennessee. The Iron Bowl, as always, will be a challenge. Auburn always has a stout defense, and if the offense is as good as people say it can be, Auburn could be a surprise national championship contender.
Best Case: 12-0 (8-0)
Everything goes right and Auburn runs the table, only this time they actually get a chance to play for the National Title. With LSU's question marks, Auburn is primed to step up and claim the spot as top SEC dog.
Worst Case: 6-6 (3-5)
Auburn's new offense doesn't take hold, and the Tigers can't compete with the likes of LSU and Georgia. To add insult to injury, Alabama finally wins the Iron Bowl and Auburn ends up in the Independence Bowl, or computers.com bowl, or wherever they send crappy 6-6 teams.

LSU
Expected Finish: 10-2 (6-2)
LSU's non-conference schedule leaves something to be desired, but should provide four easy wins, and with the two Mississippi schools, South Carolina, and Arkansas, eight wins should be no problem. If the QB situation is resolved, I can see LSU winning at least one of these three games: Georgia, @Florida, @Auburn. It will tough to win any more than that, and all three will be dangerous. Expect the September 20 date with Auburn to set the tone for LSU's season.
Best Case: 11-1 (7-1)
I just can't see LSU going undefeated. They will slip up at least once, and they just don't have the upside potential that Auburn does. Granted, their downside is minimal, but I think what you see is what you get with LSU. Of course, a division title opens up the chance to play for the National Championship, so 11-1 might as well be 12-0.
Worst Case: 8-4 (4-4)
With LSU's cake non-conference schedule, this is about as low as I see the Tigers going. Their swarming defense will win them some close games, but if the offense struggles, they won't be able to keep up with Florida and Georgia.

Alabama
Expected Finish: 7-5 (4-4)
Alabama has a much more difficult schedule than its cross-state rival Auburn, and doesn't quite have the pedigree to convince me they can remain a top 25 team. Not only does Alabama travel to Georgia, Tennessee and LSU, but they have to open up against Clemson. Perhaps Clemson will prove to be overrated, but I think a big loss there will send Alabama spiraling downward. The young talent they have won't be able to contribute right away, and Alabama could struggle.
Best Case: 10-2 (6-2)
Alabama surpasses expectations while a couple of other highly ranked teams falter. The Tide bookends its season with big wins against Clemson and Auburn, and sneaks into the SEC Championship.
Worst Case: 6-6 (3-5)
Perhaps I'm already so pessimistic on the Tide that I don't see them falling much further than my base prediction. With three easy nonconference games and Mississippi State, Ole Miss, and Kentucky all at home, I don't see how Alabama doesn't reach six wins. However, I doubt they'll get many more.

Mississippi State
Expected Finish: 6-6 (3-5)
Last year, Mississippi State overachieved and ended up 8-5, despite being outscored by about 2 points per game. I think the Bulldogs will come back down to earth a little this year. MSU has three guaranteed wins on their schedule (LA Tech, SE Louisiana, Middle Tennessee) but I don't expect them to fare well in SEC play. An early season trip to Georgia Tech will prove whether or not this team can match last season's performance.
Best Case: 8-4 (4-4)
Mississippi State matches last season's win total, beats Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl, and pulls off a major upset against Auburn, Alabama or Tennessee.
Worst Case: 4-8 (2-6)
MSU loses at home to Vanderbilt, or worse, loses to one of the cake nonconference teams on its schedule.

Arkansas
Expected Finish: 6-6 (3-5)
Without McFadden and Felix Jones, I just don't see how Arkansas is going to compete this year. Also, their schedule is not too friendly, as nearly all of their "toss-up" games are on the road. Don't expect Arkansas to upset LSU again this year. Unless the Razorbacks can work some magic, they will need to win on the road (Kentucky, South Carolina, Mississippi State) if they want to reach a bowl game this year. Their trip to Texas could end up being a humiliation.
Best Case: 8-4 (5-3)
This would be a serious stretch, and assumes that Arkansas can take all of its "winnable" games and upset at least one of these teams: Texas, Alabama, Auburn, Florida, LSU. The only team I give them a chance against is Alabama, but I'm still not convinced they can even beat Kentucky and South Carolina.
Worst Case: 3-9 (0-8)
I wouldn't be terribly surprised to see this happen. After two easy games against Western Illinois and LA-Monroe, Arkansas has a brutal four game stretch against Texas, Alabama, Florida and Auburn. That could be enough to completely shatter this team's confidence.

Ole Miss
Expected Finish: 5-7 (2-6)
Ole Miss went winless in the SEC last year, but has generated plenty of buzz about new transfer QB Jevan Snead. We should know what this team is about by the second week, when they travel to face Wake Forest. A win there will generate momentum, but a bad loss could confirm another lost season for the Rebels. I believe they could win home games against Vanderbilt and Mississippi State, but anything beyond that will be a success. With the rest of the division full of questions, who knows, maybe all the experts are right that Ole Miss could surprise people. But I'll believe it when I see it.
Best Case: 8-4 (4-4)
Ole Miss gets that big win against Wake Forest and manages to hold its own against the SEC West. Florida, Alabama, Auburn and LSU have to be considered sure losses, but the rest of the games are winnable.
Worst Case: 3-9 (0-8)
A repeat of last season. Jevan Snead is the next coming of Brent Schaeffer and Ole Miss is back to square one.

Well, that's all for now. It's been a great start for SEC football, as Vanderbilt and South Carolina have already posted big wins. Granted, Miami (OH) and NC State are not huge talents, but it is impressive to see the middle and low SEC teams taking care of business.

SEC East Preview

Now, what you have all been waiting for...the start of college football! Tonight is the official kickoff of the 2008 season, but the real intriguing matchups don't get started until this Saturday. This weekend is highlighted by Alabama-Clemson, Florida-Hawaii, Missouri-Illinois, Kentucky-Louisville, and Tennessee-UCLA. Championships are never won in the first game, but as the cliche goes, they can certainly be lost.

As promised, I will provide a rundown of the upcoming SEC season, starting with the SEC East. Georgia and Florida are the clear favorites, with Georgia currently sitting atop the polls and Florida not far behind at number 5. Interestingly, the SEC media picked Florida to win the SEC, not Georgia, so maybe they know something the national media doesn't...like maybe Georgia has a few more arrests than they've shared... I kid, I kid...

Phil Fulmer has been quoted as saying that nine of the twelve SEC teams feel they have a chance to win the SEC this year. While I appreciate that his point illustrates the depth of the conference, it is a bit of a stretch. Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Arkansas, Mississippi State, and Ole Miss have to be dreaming if they really think they can pull off an SEC Championship. You could probably lump South Carolina in there as well, but with the Ol' Ball Coach you can never be too sure.

Here is my prediction for the SEC East finish:
1. Georgia 10-2 (6-2)
2. Florida 10-2 (6-2)
3. Tennessee 9-3 (5-3)
4. Kentucky 7-5 (4-4)
5. South Carolina 5-7 (2-6)
6. Vanderbilt 4-8 (1-7)

Nothing too drastically different from last year, but I don't expect to see Tennessee pull off a surprise SEC East title two years in a row. This division title will come down to November 1, when Georgia battles Florida at the World's Largest Cocktail Party, or whatever they are calling it these days. Kentucky should expect to see a slight dropoff after losing star QB Andre Woodson. Vanderbilt always play tough, but will be hard pressed to surpass last season's five wins. South Carolina simply has a brutal schedule, and could find themselves permanently in last place if they lose at Vanderbilt in their SEC opener.

Georgia
Expected Finish: 10-2 (6-2)
Despite the pundits love, Georgia is no guarantee to even win their division, let alone the national title. Georgia has six games against AP Top 25 teams, including trips to LSU and Auburn. The Bulldogs will also be seeking redemption against Tennessee after last year's 35-14 thrashing. The Florida game could go either way, and as I mentioned before, it could be the difference between playing for the SEC title and playing in the Peach Bowl.
Best Case: 12-0 (8-0)
Clearly, the best case for the Bulldogs is that they meet all the expectations placed on them and run the table. It won't be easy.
Worst Case: 7-5 (4-4)
It isn't inconceivable that Georgia could fall to these depths. I only count four of Georgia games as sure wins (Georgia Southern, Central Michigan, Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech). Georgia has to travel to South Carolina (who beat them last year), 15th ranked Arizona State, and the always dangerous Kentucky, which are all winnable games that become much trickier when played on the road.

Florida
Expected Finish: 10-2 (6-2)
Florida has the advantage of a much easier schedule than Georgia, as they only have three games against ranked opponents. While nonconference opponents Hawaii, Miami (FL) and Florida State are big names, they shouldn't challenge the Gators. Other than the Georgia game, the only tests will be traveling to Knoxville to face the Vols and hosting LSU. Of those three games, I expect the Gators to win of them, most likely at Tennessee. A loss to Georgia could ruin any tie-breaking scenarios.
Best Case: 12-0 (8-0) You could argue that any team's "best-case" scenario is a National Title, but I believe it here. With only the three tough games, it isn't out of the question that Florida could run the table. I don't think that they will beat Georgia, but that doesn't mean I think Georgia has a better chance to winning the national title.
Worst Case: 8-4 (5-3) Florida loses all its tough games and then loses to either Miami or Florida State. At this point in time, it's inconceivable for me to believe that Florida would lose to both of these teams. The rest of Florida's schedule is fairly non-threatening.

Tennessee
Expected Finish: 9-3 (5-3)
I may be overly optimistic on the Vols here, especially after losing Erik Ainge, but I feel that the defense will be much improved and the run game should help new starting QB Jonathan Crompton break into a rhythm. Tennessee faces four ranked foes, and I can only expect that they will one of those games. The Knoxville faithful will be furious if Tennessee fails to redeem themselves at home against Alabama after last year's drubbing. Georgia, Auburn and Florida will probably be too much to handle. A nonconference trip to UCLA looks dangerous on the surface, but all reports seem to indicate that the Bruins won't be able to mount much of a threat.
Best Case: 11-1 (7-1) This would put Tennessee in the SEC Conference championship and give them a shot at the national title. I don't see it happening, but they did beat Georgia last year, and if Auburn turns out to be overrated, they could surprise the Tigers. However, I don't see Tennessee beating Tebow and Co., even at home.
Worst Case: 7-5 (4-4) Tennessee loses it four tough games and blows its opener at UCLA. The rest of the non-conference schedule (Wyoming, NIU, UAB) should hardly prove challenging, and the SEC slate of Miss St, South Carolina, Kentucky and Vandy hasn't challenged Tennessee very often in the past.

Kentucky
Expected Finish: 7-5 (4-4)
For a middle team like Kentucky, nearly every SEC game will prove challenging. I also expect the trip to Louisville will be a rude awakening for the post-Woodson Wildcats. Kentucky has the good fortune of facing most of its peers at home (Vandy, Arkansas, South Carolina) so I expect the Wildcats to pull out those victories. Realistically, Kentucky won't challenge its upper crust opponents (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Tennessee).
Best Case: 9-3 (5-3) Kentucky scores a big opening win at Louisville and finishes with an even bigger win at Tennessee, ending its long string of futility against the Volunteers.
Worst Case: 5-7 (2-6) Kentucky struggles without Andre Woodson, loses one or two winnable games at home, and misses a bowl berth.

South Carolina
Expected Finish: 5-7 (2-6)
While South Carolina may have slightly better talent than Kentucky, South Carolina has been cursed with one of the most difficult SEC schedules in recent memory. Not only are three of its four SEC home games likely unwinnable (Georgia, LSU, Tennessee), but the Gamecocks will have to face nearly all of their "peer" schools on the road, including Vanderbilt, Ole Miss and Kentucky. To top it off, South Carolina opens and closes against ACC teams North Carolina State and Clemson. The only sure win I see is when the Gamecocks host tiny Wofford.
Best Case: 9-3 (5-3)
South Carolina beats all of its peer schools and pulls an upset against one of the top dogs. South Carolina caps off a successful season with a win at hated Clemson.
Worst Case: 3-9 (1-7)
Given their schedule, this is much more likely than a 9-3 cinderella season. South Carolina lays an egg at home against NC State and the season just goes downhill from there.

Vanderbilt
Expected Finish: 4-8 (1-7)
Vanderbilt's schedule is much more comparable to Kentucky's than South Carolina's. A few gimme wins should help Vanderbilt build some momentum going into SEC play, but that won't carry them far. Expect Vandy to aaalmost pull off a big upset but fall just short.
Best Case: 6-6 (3-5)
A couple of close wins finally propel Vanderbilt to that elusive bowl appearance. It isn't crazy to believe that, with a little luck, Vanderbilt could start the season 4-0. Miami (OH), Rice, South Carolina and Ole Miss isn't exactly a murderer's row, and with a home game against Duke, maybe this is the year that Vanderbilt finally makes it to a bowl game.
Worst Case: 2-10 (0-8)
Vanderbilt should beat Rice and Duke, but after that nothing is secure. I think Vanderbilt will manage to win at least once SEC game, but if they don't win their SEC opener against South Carolina, they may not get another shot.

Coming soon...SEC West preview

USA-Guatemala Rundown

In the first game of the CONCACAF World Cup qualification semifinal group stage, the United States faces off against Guatemala. Both team are fighting for one of two spots to advance to the final round robin group. Cuba and Trinidad & Tobago are the two other teams in the four-team group.

Historically, the United States has not done well when traveling to Guatemala, and has never won at Guatemala in World Cup qualifying. However, Guatemala has not defeated USA in the last 15 games. The United States is the clear favorites to win the group, but would likely be satisfied with a draw in hostile territory.

I was already planning on watching this game, so I figured I might as well write about it. This way I feel like I’m doing something productive while watching the game, as opposed to actually doing something productive like, say, working on grad school applications. Oh well…

The game will be played at Stadio Mateo Flores in Guatemala City. Carlos Bocanegra will captain the USA squad, while Carlos Ruiz and coach Ramon Haradiaga will lead Guatemala.

10:15 PM- Kickoff

0:15 - Carlos Ruiz commits a foul within the first 20 seconds. Could be a sign of things to come.

1:15 – USA gets a free kick in a favorable spot. Good feed by Landon Donovan and after a few nervous moments in front of the box, a foul is called on USA and the attack dies.

2:15 – Carlos Ruiz gives a pseudo-elbow while protecting the ball and a foul is called. Looks a little weak, but the announcers call for a yellow card.

4:45 – Freddy Garcia has a dangerous run and gets in a decent cross for Guatemala. Nothing comes of it, but it puts Tim Howard on notice.

6:00 – Clint Dempsey called for a weak foul after a Guatemala defender falls down after being beaten, trying to shield the ball.

7:30 – Pando Ramirez has a sweet name.

9:00 – Clever passing sequence by Guatemala, but Ramirez sends his shot into the crowd.

10:00 – Only ten minutes in and Carlos Ruiz’s jersey is already covered in mud.

11:00 – Nice backheel by Dempsey! Just knocked out of bounds by the last Guatemala defender before it gets to an onrushing Landon Donovan.

13:00 – Apparently there is another (better) Adu on the USA National team – the announcers talk about the potential of Maurice Adu and his recent signing by Glasgow Rangers.

14:00 – Wasted corner kick by USA

16:15 – Cherundolo flips out and gets a yellow card after slamming the ball to the ground after losing the ball over the sideline.

18:45 – Dangerous ball across the Guatemala goal and nervous moments for the Guatemala goalie. Ricardo Trigueno almost whiffs again on the ensuing throw-in…

20:00 – Mario Rodriguez has a GREAT run down the right sideline for Guatemala but it just sneaks over the endline. Good speed, could prove to be a threat.

22:30 – Looks like a very enthusiastic and energetic crowd. No one is sitting down.

23:45 – Score flashes across the screen: Mexico is up 2-1 on Honduras.

24:15 – ANOTHER dangerous run by Mario Rodriguez, but no one is there to finish it off.

25:55 – FIGHT! Ok, not really, but Pando Ramirez goes down in a heap after Clint Dempsey gives him a brush-off. Both players are given yellow card cautions.

28:00 – Arguments among Guatemalan defenders as a lack of communication forces a poor clearance. Definitely looking a little shaky.

29:30 – Nifty footwork by Freddy Garcia in the left corner, but the cross goes right to Tim Howard.

30:30 – Brian Ching touches the ball for what seems like the first time and is offsides by about 5 yards.

32:00 – Onyewu basically delivers a right cross to Jose Contreras as he swoops in to steal the ball. No call, however.

33:00 – Pablo Mastroeni fouls Carlos Ruiz who goes down hard and Mastroeni earns a yellow card. The announcers are skeptical after watching the replay, but it looks like the two players may have hit kneecaps. Probably didn’t deserve a yellow card, but hey, Ruiz is a great actor.

36:00 – Shot by Contreras and a good save by Howard! Tim Howard easily recovers the rebound shot.

38:00 – Brian Ching finally has a good touch and rockets a shot just over the bar. Two good chances in the last couple of minutes.

39:00 – Great passing by Contreras and Freddy Garcia. Guatemala claims a handball in the box after Garcia’s cross deflects off USA defender Heath Pearce’s hand. Replays confirm it, but no call. The crowd is energized, to say the least.

40:30 – USA counters, but a great chance is spoiled by an offsides call. Brian Ching has come on the strong here at the end of the first half.

41:45 – Dangerous, dangerous run by Guatemala, but the final pass is flubbed five feet in front of goal by Ruiz. Excellent passing, but the finish was lacking. He doesn’t usually miss those, but the defense was tight.

43:15 – “Stone-hands” Trigueno almost drops a cross as he falls away from his own goal. Expect the USA to take as many shots as possible in the second half to force more saves and rebounds.

45:00 – End of the first half. Guatemala doesn’t like the timing of the final whistle as they looked to be on another breakaway. No score at the end of the first half, and not much between the two sides. I expected we might see a 0-0 final, and we’re halfway there.

Mexico did end up beating Honduras 2-1, while Trinidad & Tobago beat Cuba 3-1. T&T will likely be Guatemala’s top competitor for second place in this semifinal group.

46:00 – Shaky goalkeeping by Trigueno to start the second half, as he hesitates playing a back pass and is almost embarrassed as a USA attacker nearly swipes it.

49:00 – Oooh! So close! Rodriguez, Contreras, and Ruiz combine and just push it past the near post. Guatemala’s outside speed is really causing problems for the USA defense.

51:00 – Guatemala is pressuring the Unites States and has been the more attacking side, but USA has weathered the opportunities to this point. The crowd has energized the home side, and they seem to get closer and closer to getting that first goal. Guatemala also seems to be winning the majority of the 50-50 balls.

52:30 – Dubious offside call against Guatemala negates another potential opportunity.

55:30 – USA loses it in a dangerous area and Mario “Loco” Rodriguez inches a shot just wide far post. You wonder how much closer they can get without actually scoring.

57:00 – Freddy Thompson! Power shot from about 30 yards out just misses the near post! Guatemala is running circles around the American defense.

58:30 – Mario Rodriguez always seems to be open on the right wing. After a throw-in, Ruiz gets a touch, but can only manage a weak dribbling shot.

59:30 – Red Card for Cherundolo! What was he thinking? After getting beat, he reaches out and grabs the ankle of the Guatemalan player. His second yellow, he’s off, and USA is down to ten men.

60:45 – Eddie Lewis is covered in blood. Not sure what happened yet.

61:30 – The replay is shown, and you can see that Eddie Lewis was on the losing end of a headball challenge. Gustavo Cabrera is also down for Guatemala.

62:30 – Cabrera is shown a red card! Both teams are now down to ten men. The replay looks pretty nasty: Cabrera came in late and may have led with his elbow.

64:30 – Gustavo Cabrera is on his way to the locker room. Eddie Lewis is still down. Frankie Hedjek replaces Clint Dempsey and Marquez comes in to replace Freddy Thompson for Guatemala. Both teams will now have ten players, and will likely play more conservatively. 0-0 looks like a real possibility.

65:15 – Play finally starts again.

66:00 – DaMarcus Beasley comes on for USA to replace Eddie Lewis. Carlos Castrillo comes on to replace Freddy Garcia for Guatemala.

67:00 – Yellow card for Contreras, who blocks a freekick after creeping in within the ten yard radius.

68:00 – Great save by Trigueno! The free kick is headed on by Onyewu, and it’s just touched over the bar.

68:30 – Goal for USA!! Bocanegra nailed a header into the back corner off the corner kick. DaMarcus Beasley delivers a great corner, and it looks like the Guatemalan defenders were all standing around while Bocanegra went in for the goal. It’s a 1-0 lead for the USA.

71:00 – Guatemala looks disjointed and anxious, and will need to settle down if they want to get back into the game. USA will be content to defend.

73:00 – A Guatemala corner and a great chance right in front of the net, but the shot is shanked by Flores, who probably didn't expect to be open right in front of the net.

76:30 – A great run by Pando Ramirez sets off another chance for Guatemala. Tim Howard is forced off his line to block a rushing Mario Rodriguez attack, which sets up a corner.

77:00 – Mastroeni is replaced by Maurice Edu. Guatemala immediately rockets a shot on goal off the cornerkick, but it’s right at Tim Howard.

79:00 – Nervous defending by Bocanegra leads to tense moments at the back, but USA is able to clear the ball. Carlos Ruiz continues to pressure.

81:00 – What is going on? The ball ends up in the back of the US goal, but it looked like Tim Howard had it in his possession. Carlos Ruiz kicked Howard while he was on the ground, and Howard lets go of the ball. No goal. Surprisingly no card for Ruiz, and Tim Howard gets a yellow for going after Ruiz. The announcers make no bones about their feelings on Carlos Ruiz and let everyone know it, with liberal use of the words “dirty” and “dishonest”. Hard to blame them at the moment.

84:00 – USA counters, but with only two players it doesn’t go anywhere. Brian Ching gives a nice feed to Maurice Adu, but his shot off goes well wide.

86:00 – USA is maintaining good possession and has been limiting Guatemala’s touches over the last several minutes.

88:00 – Mario Rodriguez wins a corner, but it doesn’t lead to much.

90:00 – Four minutes to be added for stoppage. Guatemala is continuing to pressure but can’t get a good shot.

92:00 – Everyone is back for the United States. Guatemala has nowhere to go, and every attacked is cleared.

93:00 – Ruiz in the box! But great defense by Onyewu and USA clears once again.

93:45 – Surely the last attack, but Bradley steals it and heads down the pitch.

94:00 – And the whistle blows! The United States gets its first ever road World Cup qualifying win over Guatemala by the final score of 1-0. The US managed to put the ball in the back of the net and held off Guatemala’s attacks. Guatemala will be very disappointed to have squandered so many opportunities, and they leave with no points. This was likely USA’s toughest game of the semifinal round, so it is certainly a great start for the Americans.

USA was somewhat fortunate to get this win, and will look to continue their success at Cuba, while Guatemala will travel to Trinidad & Tobago. Both games will take place September 6, so stay tuned!

An Exercise in Olympic Superlativism

Sportwriters should stick to what they know. How many more “Olympic” pieces are going to be written by the likes of Jemele Hill? Sure, we all know Michael Phelps just completed one of the most amazing Olympic performances of all-time, but immediately after Phelps wins his eighth gold medal, Jemele Hill writes an article proclaiming him to be the “greatest athlete of all time”. Maybe it was the greatest feat of all time, but it’s going to take more than a 750 word essay with half-assed comparisons to Wilt Chamberlain and Brett Favre to convince anyone, or at least it should.

For me, this was the absolute worst passage of the article: “Phelps has had to beat Ian Crocker, Ryan Lochte and Laszlo Cseh in Beijing all of whom were world-record holders. Phelps is beating his competition in their individual specialties. Imagine if Kobe Bryant sang a better national anthem than Marvin Gaye, or if Alex Rodriguez dunked better than Dwight Howard.” Never mind the absurdity of comparing the similarity of swim events to that of nailing a three pointer and singing, but Phelps didn’t actually beat Lochte in his world-record event (200 Back) and Laszlo’s "specialty" is the Individual Medley, which is comprised of all four strokes. By no means am I a Phelps-hater (quite the opposite), but I find the immediate need to proclaim him (or anyone) the best athlete of all-time unnecessary at best and, at worst, insulting.

For those of you that occasionally, likely as a result of boredom, read ESPN’s TMQ, you may have noticed his brief commentary on Michael Phelps in today's effort: “In other Olympic news, the timer said Michael Phelps swam the 100-meter butterfly in 50.58 seconds, Milorad Cavic swam it in 50.59 -- can anyone seriously believe either finished one-hundredth of a second different from the other? …Tenths of seconds are absurd enough, as Tuesday Morning Quarterback noted a few months ago. A hundredth of a second is too fleeting to have any common-sense relevance, let alone decide an athletic event; and this is setting aside whether a mechanical device splashed with water (the touch pads) can be accurate to the hundredth of the second. Yet numerous clocks in Beijing show hundredths of seconds, as if these splinters of time can be measured meaningfully. Reader Fred Ruonala notes that as the Phelps result was announced, one of the NBC announcers said viewers could "clearly see Phelps touched first." Now Olympics announcers can perceive hundredths of seconds.”

First of all, it IS clear from replays that Phelps finished first, if ever so slightly. If tenths and hundreds of seconds are too small to decide athletic competitions, how does “TMQ” propose that these events be decided? Any swimmer or track sprinter can tell you that a quarter or tenth of a second can be a huge difference. It is widely acknowledged that Usain Bolt torched the competition in the 100M Dash. However, his margin of victory was only a meager .2 seconds. Under TMQ’s assumptions, that difference is “irrelevant” and “fleeting”. Perhaps all the finalists should have been awarded gold medals, since their times would have all rounded to ten seconds.

Also, his description of touchpads as “mechanical device(s) splashed with water” grossly misrepresents the quality and accuracy of these electronic machines. TMQ is simply making guesses about things he does not understand. In an age where technology improves by leaps and bounds every year, it is harder to believe that we would be unable to create an accurate timing device than it is to believe we could. If races could be timed to hundredths of seconds in Mark Spitz’s era, does TMQ honestly believe we should use a larger unit of time to decide races some 30 years later?

I may not be a qualified journalist, but I’m also not being paid hundreds of thousands of dollars to write about sports. The least we can expect is some semblance of a coherent argument and a clear indication that these individuals are even watching the events before jumping to their laptops.

Sorry for the lengthy layoff. Expect SEC college football previews within the week.

World Cup 2010 Qualification Preview

Just because I said that Spain should savor it European Championship doesn’t mean I can’t start looking forward to the World Cup. Qualification is already underway in every confederation, with the exception of Europe. Following a two month reprieve after the just-completed Euro Championships, UEFA qualification will start in late August/early September.

Here is breakdown of the qualification process:
CONCACAF (North America/Carribean) – 3 or 4 teams. After a series of preliminary rounds that eliminated all the countries with no real chance, twelve teams remain. These teams have been seeded into three groups of four, and the top two teams from each group will advance to the final group stage. The top three finishers advance to South Africa, with the fourth place team facing off against the fifth place South American team in a home-and-home playoff for the last slot. The top three seeded teams are USA, Mexico, and Costa Rica. It would be a huge shock if either USA or Mexico failed to advance, but the third guaranteed seed has to be considered up for grabs. Honduras, Jamaica and Guatemala look to be the strongest challengers, in addition to Costa Rica.

Africa – 5 teams. In addition to host South Africa, Africa will qualify 5 teams. Currently, 48 teams are still alive, and have been placed into 12 groups of four. The top finisher from each group and the top eight second place teams will then be seeded into five groups of four. The winner of each group advances to South Africa. The qualification process seems a little convoluted to me, and somewhat arbitrary. Only eight of the twelve second places teams advance to the final round? Why not eliminate eight more teams in the first preliminary round, leaving 40 teams and ten groups of four? Eh, oh well… I won’t claim to know which African teams are the best, but I would have to say that Cameroon and Nigeria are most likely to advance. I would also expect Ghana and Ivory Coast to be strong in qualification. Beyond that, maybe Egypt and Morocco…

Asia – 4 or 5 teams. Asia has already reached the final round of its qualification, with ten teams remaining. The ten teams have been placed into two groups of five. The top two finishers from each group automatically qualify for South Africa. The two third places teams will then have a home-and-home playoff for the right to face the winner of Oceania in a final playoff. The winner of that leg will advance to World Cup 2010. The clear favorites from Group One are Japan and Australia. The second group is a little more competitive, with South Korea and Iran as the favorites. North Korea and Saudi Arabia will probably duke it out for the right to face New Zealand become the region’s fifth qualifier.

Oceania – 0 or 1 team. As mentioned above, the winner of this region will face the fifth Asian team in a final playoff. I would be shocked if anyone other than New Zealand wins the region, but it likely won’t matter because they still have to face (and defeat) a decent team from Asia.

South America – 4 or 5 teams. Just as in every other tournament, the South American teams face a grueling league-style qualification that pits the ten teams against each for a home and away leg. The top four finishers automatically qualify for the World Cup, while the fifth place team has a playoff against the fourth place CONCACAF team. So, pretty much, the top five South American teams will qualify. Despite Brazil’s current fifth place position, they, along with Argentina, have to be locks to advance. Paraguay also looks strong, which means that the final two spots will likely come down to Colombia, Uruguay, Chile, and possibly Venezuela.

Europe – 13 teams. Like South America, Europe essentially has one giant qualification round. The 53 teams have been seeded and divided into nine groups. The winners of each group automatically advance to the World Cup, while the top 8 second place teams are drawn into four home-and-home playoffs. The four winners will then also advance to the World Cup. Like the African qualifying, it seems a little odd to leave out one (or more) second place finishers, but I’m sure they have their reasons. It seems reasonable to expect the majority of the teams that qualified for Euro 2008 will also advance to South Africa. Ironically, England has once again been placed against Croatia in qualifying. After Croatia eliminated them from Euro 2008, England will be keen to avoid the same fate for its World Cup dreams. England will also have to contend with Ukraine. Generally speaking, the usual suspects (Spain, Germany, Italy, Portugal, Netherlands) should advance without a problem. If I had to pick two “surprise” qualifiers, I would say Ireland and Israel. Israel has been on the cusp for years and they have the good fortune of a relatively easy qualifying group, with Greece and Switzerland the only other decent teams. Ireland is seeded with Italy, who have been struggling somewhat, and Ireland would only need to overcome Bulgaria to finish second. Euro 2008 surprise performers Russia and Turkey may be fighting for playoff spots, as they are seeded with Germany and Spain, respectively.

I know we still have two years to go, but I am looking forward to seeing which teams succeed and which teams falter. For those of you who are keeping track, the United States kick off their current qualifying round at Guatemala on August 20, which is historically a tough environment for visiting teams.