SEC West Preview

Since the college season has already gotten started, I better get on my game with these SEC previews. One division down, one to go. I'll be honest - I have much less interest in the SEC West. The Mississippi and Alabama schools really don't interest me, and for the most part have been mediocre for the last ten years with the exception of a couple of good Auburn seasons. LSU, of course, has come on strongly, but as a Tennessee fan, I'm primarily concerned with seeing the Vols win the East, competing with Florida and Georgia. I still hate Alabama, but they haven't been relevant for awhile now.

With that said, let's get right into it. Here is how I see the SEC West finishing:

Auburn 10-2 (6-2)
LSU 10-2 (6-2)
Alabama 7-5 (4-4)
Mississippi State 6-6 (3-5)
Arkansas 6-6 (3-5)
Ole Miss 5-7 (2-6)

I can't say for sure whether LSU or Auburn will come out on top. Auburn does have a slightly easier schedule, since they host LSU and play Tennessee instead of Florida, so I would be tempted to give them any tie-breaker edge. However, I'm still not 100% sold on Auburn's new spread offense, and whether they can shed their history of offensive ineptitude. LSU may struggle without a proven QB, and the rest of the division still has a multitude of questions to answer. Can Arkansas be successful without Darren McFadden and Felix Jones? Will Mississippi State be able to replicate their surprise season? Will Ole Miss' transfer QB solve their offensive woes? Can Alabama succeed with all of its young talent?

Auburn
Expected Finish: 10-2 (6-2)
In addition to the usual grind of the SEC schedule, Auburn will have to face West Virginia in late October, when both teams are reaching their peaks. Auburn is somewhat fortunate that their three toughest games will all be at home - Georgia, LSU, and Tennessee. The Iron Bowl, as always, will be a challenge. Auburn always has a stout defense, and if the offense is as good as people say it can be, Auburn could be a surprise national championship contender.
Best Case: 12-0 (8-0)
Everything goes right and Auburn runs the table, only this time they actually get a chance to play for the National Title. With LSU's question marks, Auburn is primed to step up and claim the spot as top SEC dog.
Worst Case: 6-6 (3-5)
Auburn's new offense doesn't take hold, and the Tigers can't compete with the likes of LSU and Georgia. To add insult to injury, Alabama finally wins the Iron Bowl and Auburn ends up in the Independence Bowl, or computers.com bowl, or wherever they send crappy 6-6 teams.

LSU
Expected Finish: 10-2 (6-2)
LSU's non-conference schedule leaves something to be desired, but should provide four easy wins, and with the two Mississippi schools, South Carolina, and Arkansas, eight wins should be no problem. If the QB situation is resolved, I can see LSU winning at least one of these three games: Georgia, @Florida, @Auburn. It will tough to win any more than that, and all three will be dangerous. Expect the September 20 date with Auburn to set the tone for LSU's season.
Best Case: 11-1 (7-1)
I just can't see LSU going undefeated. They will slip up at least once, and they just don't have the upside potential that Auburn does. Granted, their downside is minimal, but I think what you see is what you get with LSU. Of course, a division title opens up the chance to play for the National Championship, so 11-1 might as well be 12-0.
Worst Case: 8-4 (4-4)
With LSU's cake non-conference schedule, this is about as low as I see the Tigers going. Their swarming defense will win them some close games, but if the offense struggles, they won't be able to keep up with Florida and Georgia.

Alabama
Expected Finish: 7-5 (4-4)
Alabama has a much more difficult schedule than its cross-state rival Auburn, and doesn't quite have the pedigree to convince me they can remain a top 25 team. Not only does Alabama travel to Georgia, Tennessee and LSU, but they have to open up against Clemson. Perhaps Clemson will prove to be overrated, but I think a big loss there will send Alabama spiraling downward. The young talent they have won't be able to contribute right away, and Alabama could struggle.
Best Case: 10-2 (6-2)
Alabama surpasses expectations while a couple of other highly ranked teams falter. The Tide bookends its season with big wins against Clemson and Auburn, and sneaks into the SEC Championship.
Worst Case: 6-6 (3-5)
Perhaps I'm already so pessimistic on the Tide that I don't see them falling much further than my base prediction. With three easy nonconference games and Mississippi State, Ole Miss, and Kentucky all at home, I don't see how Alabama doesn't reach six wins. However, I doubt they'll get many more.

Mississippi State
Expected Finish: 6-6 (3-5)
Last year, Mississippi State overachieved and ended up 8-5, despite being outscored by about 2 points per game. I think the Bulldogs will come back down to earth a little this year. MSU has three guaranteed wins on their schedule (LA Tech, SE Louisiana, Middle Tennessee) but I don't expect them to fare well in SEC play. An early season trip to Georgia Tech will prove whether or not this team can match last season's performance.
Best Case: 8-4 (4-4)
Mississippi State matches last season's win total, beats Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl, and pulls off a major upset against Auburn, Alabama or Tennessee.
Worst Case: 4-8 (2-6)
MSU loses at home to Vanderbilt, or worse, loses to one of the cake nonconference teams on its schedule.

Arkansas
Expected Finish: 6-6 (3-5)
Without McFadden and Felix Jones, I just don't see how Arkansas is going to compete this year. Also, their schedule is not too friendly, as nearly all of their "toss-up" games are on the road. Don't expect Arkansas to upset LSU again this year. Unless the Razorbacks can work some magic, they will need to win on the road (Kentucky, South Carolina, Mississippi State) if they want to reach a bowl game this year. Their trip to Texas could end up being a humiliation.
Best Case: 8-4 (5-3)
This would be a serious stretch, and assumes that Arkansas can take all of its "winnable" games and upset at least one of these teams: Texas, Alabama, Auburn, Florida, LSU. The only team I give them a chance against is Alabama, but I'm still not convinced they can even beat Kentucky and South Carolina.
Worst Case: 3-9 (0-8)
I wouldn't be terribly surprised to see this happen. After two easy games against Western Illinois and LA-Monroe, Arkansas has a brutal four game stretch against Texas, Alabama, Florida and Auburn. That could be enough to completely shatter this team's confidence.

Ole Miss
Expected Finish: 5-7 (2-6)
Ole Miss went winless in the SEC last year, but has generated plenty of buzz about new transfer QB Jevan Snead. We should know what this team is about by the second week, when they travel to face Wake Forest. A win there will generate momentum, but a bad loss could confirm another lost season for the Rebels. I believe they could win home games against Vanderbilt and Mississippi State, but anything beyond that will be a success. With the rest of the division full of questions, who knows, maybe all the experts are right that Ole Miss could surprise people. But I'll believe it when I see it.
Best Case: 8-4 (4-4)
Ole Miss gets that big win against Wake Forest and manages to hold its own against the SEC West. Florida, Alabama, Auburn and LSU have to be considered sure losses, but the rest of the games are winnable.
Worst Case: 3-9 (0-8)
A repeat of last season. Jevan Snead is the next coming of Brent Schaeffer and Ole Miss is back to square one.

Well, that's all for now. It's been a great start for SEC football, as Vanderbilt and South Carolina have already posted big wins. Granted, Miami (OH) and NC State are not huge talents, but it is impressive to see the middle and low SEC teams taking care of business.