Bubble Watch - Weekend Update

After a weekend full of exciting games, several teams helped their tournament causes, while a few others shot themselves in the foot.

Time is starting to run and out, and desperation may set in for a few teams listed below.

No Longer a Lock
Gonzaga – Sure, they’ve only lost once in 2009, but their RPI continues to slip thanks to a weak conference schedule. They have probably saved up enough goodwill from previous tournaments, but this clearly isn’t one of Gonzaga’s better teams in recent memory. Their schedule is easy enough that they shouldn’t lose until possibly the WCC championship, but a loss before then would be very bad.

Ohio State – OSU has fallen out of the RPI top 40 (43) and into legitimate bubble territory. With a 7-7 conference record, Ohio State will need to win at least two of its last four games. After losing their last three games, the Buckeyes are rapidly losing ground in the Big Ten. Ohio State hosts Penn State tomorrow night in what will be a big game for both teams.

Georgetown – We already knew the Hoyas were in trouble, despite a lofty RPI, but now that RPI has fallen all the way to 45. Worse, they are 5-9 in the Big East, have lost eight of their last ten, and just missed a chance for a big home win against Marquette. Georgetown hosts Louisville today and this game could be considered a must-win game. If they lose, their next game (at Louisville) most definitely becomes a ‘must-win’ game, but even that may not be enough.

South Carolina – In January, South Carolina looked like it might be a rising squad in the SEC, but lately they have been just as inconsistent as the rest of the bunch and their RPI has slipped to 44. With an 8-4 SEC record, South Carolina may be able to absorb home losses to Tennessee and Kentucky over the next couple of weeks, but a win in one of those two games would probably punch their ticket.

Moving Up
Texas – After knocking off Oklahoma this past weekend, Texas might have just sealed their bid. With an RPI at 35, Texas can probably afford to split their last four games and still feel relatively comfortable.

Texas A&M – Having just beat Texas themselves, A&M gets a bit of a secondary bump from Texas’ win over Oklahoma. With an RPI of 39 and 5-7 conference record, Texas A&M certainly can’t feel too comfortable right now, but their next three games are manageable and they finish with an important home date against Missouri.

LSU – After moving into the RPI top 40, LSU is almost assured of an NCAA bid. Even if they lose their last four games, LSU would still have an 11-5 SEC record.

Creighton – This team jumped about 10 RPI spots after knocking off George Mason in Bracket Busters. With many other bubble teams struggling, Creighton has to be considered a dark horse candidate to sneak into the tournament. The regular season finale against fellow bubble team Illinois St. looms large.

St. Mary’s – Another team that benefited from Bracket Busters, St. Mary’s profile certainly looks a little better after beating Utah State.

Maryland – Maryland got one of the big wins (UNC) they needed, but they will probably need another one before all is said and done. With Duke and Wake Forest still on the schedule, it just might be possible.

Penn State – A huge week for the Nittany Lions (wins over Minnesota, @ Illinois) leaves Penn State at 8-6 in the Big Ten. They travel to now-struggling Ohio State tomorrow and a win will inch Penn State even closer to that elusive bid. Their RPI (61) and non-conference schedule are still weak, but a few more conference wins will improve their profile.

Ole Miss – Don’t look now, but Ole Miss has won five of it last seven (including wins over Kentucky and Tennessee) so perhaps it’s time to give the Rebels a cursory glance. Their RPI has nudged up to 65, and with a 6-6 conference record, they aren’t completely dead. They probably need to win their last four games to have a decent chance, though.

Moving Down
USC – They missed a chance after losing at home to Washington, so they really need a result out of their road trip to Cal later this week. Their other three games won’t help their profile, but can definitely hurt them.

Davidson – After getting demolished by Butler, Davidson has run out of chances to improve their profile. Another loss would be devastating, and anything less than a conference championship may not be enough at this point.

Virginia Tech – Sinking like a rock right now, Virginia Tech can’t catch a break. They have lost three straight and finish with four games against the ACC’s top four teams. They absolutely need to win two of those games to get back into the discussion.

Providence – After losing at home to Notre Dame, it’s probably over for Providence. Their RPI has sunk to 76 and they’ve lost five of their last seven. They have two more chances to record big wins (Pitt, @Villanova) but it still might not be enough.