Refuting the Illogical

Look, I understand that controversy sells. Say something that is blatantly wrong with enough brashness and you know that you will annoy anyone with common sense. There’s really nothing like saying something idiotic (The sun is blue!) and then refusing the listen to any logical arguments to the contrary.

I give you the case of one Gregg Easterbrook. The guys has basically made his living doing this, but last week he went a step further and claimed that Eli Manning was now a better quarterback than Peyton Manning. Seriously?

Here is one example: “Well, ponder this: Eli Manning is now a better quarterback than Peyton Manning. At the current rate, his career achievements will at least match, and perhaps surpass, his big brother's.”

What career achievements? The only comparable career achievement is Super Bowl wins: Both have one. So yes, if you extrapolate that over Eli’s career, statistically Eli might end up with more. But other than that, I don’t see how the two are anywhere close to comparable. And keep in mind that quarterbacks like Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson have also won Super Bowls.

Mr. Easterbrook claims that “[i]n terms of passing stats, the two players are approximately the same”. Really? Let’s take a deeper look into these approximately similar stats. For comparison’s sake, let’s throw out both players’ rookie season (Peyton’s was much better, by the way).

After his rookie season, Peyton rolled off six straight 4000+ yard seasons, with his QB rating never dropping below 84. In Eli’s first three full seasons (including last season’s Super Bowl win) his highest QB rating was 77 and his highest passing total was 3762.

In Peyton’s entire career, he has never averaged less than 7.0 yards per attempt in a season. Eli’s best average was 6.8 yards per attempt. In each of Peyton’s first three non-rookie seasons, he completed 62% of his passes. Since those three seasons, he has not dropped below 65%. Eli has yet to approach 60% in any season.

In Peyton’s entire career (again, excluding rookie season) he has thrown more than 15 interceptions only twice. Eli has already done it three times, in each of his first three full seasons.

These differences might seem insignificant, but when every Peyton Manning pass goes for an average of 1.5 yards further and he completes maybe three or four more passes per game (given the same number of throws) that is a pretty huge advantage. Throw in Peyton’s clear decision-making advantage and the intangible benefits of his vast knowledge of the offensive playbook and audibles, and Peyton is giving his team a significant advantage every time he steps on the field.

While it’s true that Peyton did not win any playoff games until his sixth season, he did lead the Colts into the playoffs in his second and third seasons. Eli achieved the same feat, leading the Giants into the playoffs in his second and third seasons. What people seem to forget is that since Peyton Manning took over as quarterback, the Colts have missed the playoffs only twice, and not since 2001.

What the Giants did last season was amazing, and Eli has played well this season (with the exception of last night’s bed-crapping against the Browns) but can you really argue that Eli is a better quarterback than Peyton? I mean, he didn’t even make the Pro Bowl last year and his team won the Super Bowl! That should say something about how good Eli is.

I’m not saying that Eli Manning won’t turn out to be a good quarterback, but based on what we’ve seen from him so far, I think it’s a little early to declare that he’ll have a better career than a guy who is without question one of the top quarterbacks of the last decade, if not the best.

(Note: In today's article, Mr. Easterbrook made no reference to the fact that his new golden child just threw 3 picks in a terrible loss to the Browns, while Peyton Manning had another stellar, mistake-free game as the Colts trounced Baltimore 31-3)