Wednesday, October 15, 2008

College Football Rankings

At their very core, polls and ranking are incredibly meaningless. Most teams move up only if the team in front of them loses. It a team loses, they fall below every other team with the same number of losses. Generally, a team ranked in the top 5 that goes undefeated will have a much easier time reaching the national championship than an unranked team that goes undefeated.

To make matters worse, these polls comprise the majority of the formula that selects the two participants for the national championship game. My main problem is that voters are simply illogical. For example, after Florida lost to Ole Miss a couple of weeks ago, they moved out of the top ten and fell behind South Florida. In what world is South Florida a better team than Florida? Naturally, South Florida lost their next game, dropped in the rankings and order was restored.

I'll attempt to take a slightly more logical approach here - combining record, performance and strength of schedule.

1. Alabama (AP #2) - I was down on Alabama before the season started, but as one of only five remaining undefeated BCS schools, Alabama has done the most to distinguish itself. The demolition of Clemson looks less and less impressive, but Alabama was absolutely clinical in dismantling Georgia. The Tide won't have another true test until 11/8 @LSU.

2. Penn State (AP #3) - Also undefeated, Penn State hasn't really been pushed, including an impressive 48-7 win over Wisconsin. Nittany Lions fans have October 25 circled on their calenders - when Penn State travels to Columbus to face the Buckeyes.

3. Texas (AP #1) - The win over Oklahoma was nice, but Texas hasn't played any other decent teams this season. With its next two games at home against Missouri and Oklahoma State, I will certainly be willing to bump them up if they give impressive performances.

4. Florida (AP #5) - Anytime you beat the defending champions by 30 points, people have to take you seriously. The Gators are prone to their share of inconsistency (see: Ole Miss) but they have the talent to match up with any team in the country.

5. Georgia (AP #10) - The Bulldogs had one bad half, but after watching them dominate Tennessee, I'm a believer. Sure, most teams could dominate Tennessee at this point, but the combination of Stafford and Moreno is tough to beat. Three consecutive games against ranked SEC opponents (Vanderbilt, @LSU, Florida) will tell the story for this team.

6. USC (AP #6) - USC will always have one or two letdowns a year, but it's hard to argue that teams like Oklahoma State and Texas Tech are better than USC. Outside of their surprising loss at Oregon State, USC has allowed a total of only 20 points in their four wins.

7. Oklahoma (AP #4) - The Sooners best win thus far has come against TCU, which isn't saying very much. Kansas will provide a tougher test this weekend, but without Missouri on the schedule, Oklahoma should breeze to an 11-1 record without much effort, even with games against Texas Tech and Oklahoma State.

8. Oklahoma State (AP #8) - They sure don't play much defense. OK State actually allowed more points against Troy and Texas A&M than they did against Missouri, so it remains to be seen if Oklahoma State is for real. A trip to Texas in two weeks should shed some light.

9. Missouri (AP #11) - Like Oklahoma State next week, Missouri faces a huge test against Texas this weekend. The win over Illinois is nice on their resume, because it's pretty barren otherwise. After Texas, Missouri has four consecutive games against the Big 12 'have-nots' so regardless of what happens against Texas, they'll probably end up back in the Top Ten.

10. LSU (AP #13) - Perhaps hard to justify ranking the Tigers here after they were so thoroughly dominated by Florida, but I couldn't in good conscience rank them behind unproven commodities like Utah and BYU. The defending national champs deserve a little bit of leeway, but games against Georgia and Alabama in the next month will ultimately decide their fate.

11. Michigan State (AP #20) - I'm somewhat surprised that Michigan State is ranked so low in the polls. They lost a tight one at Cal to start the season and have flown under the radar since then, with their only notable win a thrashing of Notre Dame. However, Javon Ringer is a true game-breaker for them. The Spartans host Ohio State this weekend, so we'll see if my opinion is justified.

12. Texas Tech (AP #7) - I'm not ready to completely respect Texas Tech. Their best win is over Kansas State, and they need overtime to beat Nebraska. Unfortunately for them, the hard part of their schedule is just beginning. Kansas, Texas, OK State, and Oklahoma await.

13. Utah (AP #14) - They are 7-0 with wins over Michigan and Oregon State, both of whom have pulled off some surprising wins of their own. They have arguably a better resume than Texas Tech, but I don't feel like changing it now.

14. BYU (AP #9) - Like Utah, undefeated. However, they lack any signature wins. Washington and UCLA don't carry the same weight as Utah's wins.

15. Ohio State (AP #12) - Maybe I'm being too hard on the Buckeyes, but they will have the chance to change public perception with upcoming back-to-back tough games against Michigan State and Penn State. For what it's worth, their best win is...Minnesota.

16. Boise State (AP #15) - Boise State boasts a nice road win over Oregon, but unfortunately there is little else to base their performance. With only three remaining games against teams with winning records (and hardly intimidating teams at that - San Jose State, Fresno State, and New Mexico State) it is safe to assume that we'll know as much about Boise State at the end of the season as we do now.

17. Vanderbilt (AP #22) - Ok, the SEC Bias is showing a little on this one. However, three SEC wins, including the pressure-packed win over Auburn, should be enough to earn their place in the top 25. Their performance at Georgia this weekend will show their true colors. A close loss might even move them up in my rankings.

18. Virginia Tech (AP #17) - The Hokies have quietly reeled off 5 straight wins, including Georgia Tech and North Carolina, since being shocked at home by East Carolina.

19. Cal (AP #25) - Close win over Michigan State to start the season has been overshadowed by their loss at schizophrenic Maryland. They also handled Arizona State two weeks ago.

20. Oregon (AP #33) - With two losses (USC, Boise St) Oregon is not receiving much love right now. They do have a road win over Purdue, and with upcoming road games at Arizona State and Cal, Oregon will have a chance to make a name for themselves.

21. Tulsa (AP #26) - Tulsa could be this year's Hawaii. They have scored 37 points or more in each of their six victories, although they have only held teams to under 20 points one time. Working against them is the fact that they have yet to beat a team with a winning record, but from here on out they only play two more teams with losing records. A trip to Arkansas could give them a 'name' win, even though Arkansas is lower-tier SEC team right now.

22. South Florida (AP #19) - They were shocked at home by Pitt, but South Florida carries a win over Kansas on its resume. They should challenge for the Big East title, but is that saying much?

23. Kansas (AP #16) - Kansas has made a living beating up on cupcake schools. Their best win is at home against Colorado, and they failed to score a 'big' win at South Florida. Back-to-back games against Oklahoma and Texas Tech will likely see the Jayhawks exposed as pretenders.

24. Pitt (AP #23) - Similar to Virginia Tech, Pitt has won four in a row since blowing their home opener to Bowling Green. Other than the South Florida win, though, their resume is pretty thin.

25. North Carolina (AP #18) - I'll be honest, I have no idea which ACC teams are good and which aren't. Right now, there are six ACC teams with only one loss. So this spot could just as easily go to Wake Forest or Georgia Tech.

Others receiving consideration - South Carolina, Cincinnati, Ball State, Georgia Tech, Minnesota, Wake Forest

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