Who's In and Who's Out?

In the first of what should be several iterations, I will be taking a look at the potential March Madness teams and evaluating who is in and who is out. I'll mostly be considering what the teams have done thus far in the season, with an emphasis on recent form. I'll also be looking ahead to see how difficult the rest of the schedule will be for some of the bubble teams.

Conference Leaders that won’t get in without winning their conference (16)
These conference leaders will need a minor miracle to advance to the dance if they don't win their conference tournaments. In case of ties atop the conference standing, I've taken the team with the highest RPI.

America East – MD Baltimore County (RPI: 109)
Atlantic Sun – Belmont (110)
Big Sky – Portland St. (129)
Big South – NC Asheville (73) Decent RPI for a small conference team and undefeated in conference play, but can only boast two wins over teams in the RPI top 200 (South Carolina and Winthrop)
Big West – Cal St. Northridge (106)
Ivy League – Cornell (75)
MEAC – Hampton (103)
Metro Atlantic – Rider (108)
Northeast – Sacred Heart (177)
Ohio Valley – Austin Peay (121)
Patriot League – Lafayette (143)
Southern – Davidson (59) With several very close losses to top teams like Duke and UNC and currently undefeated in conference play, Davidson could warrant consideration, but their best win is only at Appalachian State (RPI 111)
Southland – Lamar (167)
Summit League – Oral Roberts (49) In the same boat as Davidson (undefeated in conference play) but they lack a top 100 win.
SWAC – Alabama St. (223) Definitely headed for the play-in game if they make the tournament.
WAC – Utah St. (82)

Mid-Major Conference Leaders That Could Get In Without Winning Their Tourney (7)
Some of these teams would get in, should they fail to win their conference tournaments, but some would not. These teams all suffer from playing weaker conference opponents and cannot afford to lose many more games. At this point, they all lead their conferences, but that doesn't mean much come tournament time.

Colonial – VCU (62) They have two decent wins (Maryland, Houston) but probably won't have enough credentials as an at-large unless they run the table and make the conference final.
Horizon – Butler (20) They have to be a virtual lock at this point, with a 20-2 record and wins over Ohio State, Texas Tech and Virginia Tech. Butler's only two losses were away against the top two teams in the league, Wright St and Cleveland State, both ranked in the RPI top-100. A win over Drake would be the clincher.
MAC – Kent St . (50) Kent St. has a couple of decent wins against at-large bubblers George Mason and Illinois St. A win at St. Mary's would definitely help their cause if they lose the MAC tourney.
Missouri Valley – Drake (6) 19-1 with the only loss at St. Mary's. They swept top MVC contenders Creighton (53) and Illinois St. (52), so they have to be considered a lock.
Mountain West – BYU (41) BYU would probably get an at-large bid at this point. The win over Louisville is nice. They were blown out at UNLV, so BYU will need a strong showing in the re-match to keep any at-large hopes alive.
Sun Belt – South Alabama (35) South Alabama lacks a signature non-conference, although the win over Mississippi State is decent. Their four losses have come by a combined 13 points, including a 2OT loss at Vanderbilt. Tough call at this point, and they will definitely need to win out the regular season to keep any at-large hopes alive.
West Coast – St. Mary’s (19) St Mary's boasts an 18-3 record and wins over Gonzaga, Drake, Oregon and Seton Hall. Would seem to have a pretty solid case for at large bid. The conference title is no guarantee with Gonzaga and San Diego (already beat St. Mary's once) in the mix.

Small Conference At-Large (8, 2 bids)
Colonial – George Mason (47) George Mason have defeated current conference leader VCU and have also scored wins over Kansas State, Dayton, and South Carolina. Unfortunately they also have four losses to RPI 150+ teams. Probably too many losses to overcome at this point.
MAC – Ohio (63) The Bobcats can claim a win over current MAC leader Kent State, as well as a win at Maryland and a home win over Ivy leader Cornell. This week's loss at Eastern Michigan (227) was a severe blow to any at-large bid chances. Seven losses is a bit much for their schedule strength.
Missouri Valley – Illinois St (52) Won at Creighton, which would give them a huge advantage if the selection came down to one of the other. They really could have used a win at home over Drake, but fell 73-70. Just miss the cut at this point.
Missouri Valley – Creighton (53)If Illinois State doesn't get in, neither does Creighton, whose credentials are much weaker. Not much to brag about other than an OT win at home over St. Joe's.
Mountain West – UNLV (32) Blew out current conference leader BYU, but the loss this week at Utah really hurts them. I'll give them the benefit of the doubt for now, but they really need to beat BYU on the road to solidify their chances.
Mountain West – San Diego St. (57) No notable non-conference wins to speak of, and are third fiddle in the MWC. I don't see it happening unless they knock off BYU and UNLV (back-to-back games in late February).
Sun Belt – Western Kentucky (56) No wins over top-100 RPI opponents, although they did play Tennessee and Gonzaga tough. Must win at home over South Alabama (Feb 21) but I can't put them in right now.
West Coast - Gonzaga (33) Has wins over UConn and St. Joe's. Has six losses, but all were close and five of the losses were to teams that are virtual locks to reach the tournament. Remaining schedule is fairly manageable, so I expect Gonzaga to finish strong.

Potential One Seeds (6)
'Nuff said.
C-USA – Memphis (3)
SEC – Tennessee (1)
Big 12 – Kansas (5)
Pac-10 – UCLA (7)
ACC – Duke (2)
ACC – North Carolina (4)

A-10 (6, 5 bids)
Definitely In:
Xavier (15) Wins against Indiana and Kansas State, plus no terrible losses. Xavier still has several challenging conference matchups, but they appear to be in excellent shape.

Probably In:
St. Joe’s (45) St. Joe's doesn't have any great non-conference wins, but they did have very close losses at Syracuse and Creighton, plus a home OT loss to Gonzaga. They have won 11 of their last 13 and are looking strong in conference play. Saturday's matchup against Xavier should provide a good barometer, but they look to be in at this point.
Rhode Island (23) Rhode Island did manage to beat Syracuse, and don't really have a bad loss, other than losing away at St. Louis, which isn't really that terrible. At 19-4, Rhode Island is a strong position.

Better Be Careful:
Dayton (14) Dayton has scored impressive wins over Louisville and Pitt, but has slid drastically in conference play, in part due to injuries. The Flyers' remaining schedule is set up perfectly, with all the challenging games at home, and away trips to the weaker A-10 foes.
UMass (22) Has wins over Syracuse, Houston and Dayton, but a couple of non-conference losses (Northern Iowa and IUPUI) hurt their profile. With a 4-4 conference record, UMass can't afford many more slip-ups.

Outside Looking In:
Temple (79) At 11-10, Temple probably doesn't even deserve to be discussed. Other than a home win over Xavier, Temple's schedule is littered with losses and unimpressive wins. Temple's next three games (UMass, Rhode Island, UD) will make or break their bid.

Big Ten (5)
Definitely In:
Wisconsin (16) Currently at 19-3, Wisconsin boasts a win at Texas and no losses to teams outside the RPI top 50. Co-Big Ten leaders with Purdue.
Michigan St. (9) Non-conference wins over Texas, NC State, and BYU are impressive, as well as the 7-2 conference mark. The loss at Penn State is surprising, but the Spartans should be fine.

Probably In:
Purdue (46) A bit surprising, but with a 9-1 conference record, Purdue should make the tournament. The two 100+ losses (Wofford, Iowa State) are a concern, but the win over Luoisville helps balance them out.
Indiana (34) No notable non-conference wins, but with a 19-3 record, Indiana should be in, barring a surprising collapse. The next four games will be telling (@OSU, home games against Wisconsin, MSU and Purdue)
Ohio State (36) Ohio State get bonus points for an extremely tough schedule. OSU scored wins over Syracuse and Florida, but were beaten fairly handily by Texas A&M, Butler and UNC. The Buckeyes have done well in conference play and should finish well.

SEC (7, 4 bids)
Should Be In:
Arkansas (39) The Razorbacks have three decent non-conference wins (Baylor, VCU, Oral Roberts) and have fared well in conference play.

Better Be Careful:
Florida (44) No meaningful wins to speak of, aside from winning at home against Vanderbilt. The Gators do have an 18-5 record and no bad losses, so if they keep it up, no reason to think the Gators won't get in.
Vanderbilt (12) In the same boat as Florida, with a 2OT win over South Alabama the only notable win. Unlike Florida, Vanderbilt has slipped in conference play and only holds a 4-4 record. The next three games are tough, but winnable (@South Carolina, H Kentucky, H Florida).
Ole Miss (20) Much like Vanderbilt, Ole Miss started strong but has faded in SEC play. The wins over South Alabama and Clemson are good, but Ole Miss definitely needs to win a few more conference games before it considers itself a lock.

Outside Looking In:
Mississippi State (54) No notable non-conference wins or losses. The home win over rival Ole Miss was impressive, but Mississippi State will need to do more, given its 15-7 record.

Dark Horses:
Don't laugh, but Kentucky (98) and South Carolina (84) could both be primed to make an SEC run. Both have similarly poor records (11-9, 11-10) but other than Kentucky's early-season Gardner-Webb debacle, neither has a 100+ RPI loss, and Kentucky in particular has a 5-2 SEC record.

Big East (11, 8 Bids)
Definitely In:
Georgetown (8) Probably deserves consideration as a one seed at this point. Non-conference schedule was weak, but at this point, that doesn't matter. 9-1 in Big East contests, with the only loss coming at Pitt.
UConn (13) Consecutive wins over Indiana, Louisville, Pitt and Syracuse have cemented their spot in the tournament.

Probably In:
Notre Dame (30) Nice win over Kansas State, but suffered narrow defeats to Baylor and Georgia Tech. 7-2 conference record, although the blowout losses at Marquette and Georgetown are concerning. ND looks to be in good shape right now, though.
Marquette (29) Won at Wisconsin, with only non-conference loss against Duke. Lately, though, Marquette can't seem to win any conference road games and just lost at home to Louisville. With two upcoming roads games at Notre Dame and Seton Hall, Marquette would do well to win at least one of them.

Better Be Careful:
Louisville (24) Won at UNLV and Kentucky, plus they have a 7-3 conference record. Unfortunately, the weak part of the schedule is over, and Louisville only faces one more school not in a position to battle for an at-large berth.
Pittsburgh (17) Pitt is going to ride those wins over Duke and Georgetown all the way to the tournament, because outside of those two games, they haven't done anything too special. The home loss to Rutgers was perplexing, but as it stands right now, Pitt would be in.
West Virginia (42) West Virginia lacks a signature win and currently has seven losses and a mediocre 5-5 conference record.
Seton Hall (51) The home win over Louisville is its only top 50 win, and Seton Hall just got blown out at home. They don't have a terrible loss, but the numbers are starting to pile up.

Outside Looking In:
Syracuse (43) With only one quality win (St. Joe's) and a mediocre conference record, Syracuse could find itself in the NIT. The remaining schedule is killer, and I wouldn't be surprised if Syracuse loses five of its last seven.
Providence (71) They have a couple of decent wins (Arkansas, at UConn) but haven't fared well in conference play. They currently have a 4-6 record and have lost four of their last five since upsetting Connecticut.
Villanova (74) A mirror image of Providence. They have one great win (Pitt) and a couple of decent wins (George Mason, at Syracuse) but have a 3-6 conference record and are losers of five straight.

Big 12 (7, 5 bids)
Definitely In:
Kansas State (27) No bad losses, plus conference wins at Oklahoma and home wins over Texas A&M and Kansas. K-State sports a 6-1 conference record.
Texas (11) Texas has impressive wins over Tennessee, UCLA, and St. Mary’s, with no bad losses.

Probably In:
Baylor (31) They have a win over Notre Dame and the epic 5OT win over Texas A&M. They played tough at Washington State. It will be interesting to see how they do against Kansas this weekend.
Texas A&M (28) The Aggies have wins over Ohio State, Texas and Oklahoma and have looked impressive as of late. They had a three game slide in mid-January but seemed to have righted the ship.

Better Be Careful:
Oklahoma (38) Oklahoma boasts three impressive non-conference wins over Arkansas, Gonazaga and West Virginia, but have struggled a bit in conference play. Granted, the losses were to the top teams, but it would be nice to see them beat a top tier Big 12 team.

Outside Looking In:
Texas Tech (61) With an 11-9 record, Texas Tech will have a tough time making the tournament. They beat Texas A&M at home, but haven't done much else lately. They also have a couple of bad losses at Centenary (who?) and Oklahoma State.

Dark Horse:
Missouri (80) is sitting at a 13-10 record, but they have several upsets, including Maryland, Purdue, Texas and Kansas State. If they can beat Texas A&M this weekend, then you may start hearing more about Missouri.

Pac-10 (6, 4 bids)
Definitely In:
Stanford (18) Having won 14 of its last 16, Stanford has managed to ease the memory of its early loss at Siena. They don't have any big non-conference wins, but currently have an 8-2 conference record.

Probably In:
Arizona (9) No terrible losses, but they only have a 14-7 (5-4 conf) record. The Texas A&M and UNLV wins hold up nicely. A couple more quality conference wins and the Wildcats can punch their ticket.
USC (37) The Trojans have some impressive wins (@ UCLA and Oregon, Oklahoma) which make up for the embarrasing loss to Mercer (300)in their first game. They have won six of their last seven and look to be in good shape.

Better Be Careful:
Washington State (25) Washington State started off super hot (14-0) but has since cooled off and has lost their last three (all at home). They don't have any bad losses to go against wins against Baylor, Gonzaga, and USC away, but the schedule only gets tougher.

Outside Looking In:
Oregon (55) The Ducks have won against K State, Arizona away, and Stanford at home, but astoundingly have 3 100+ RPI losses (Nebraska, Oakland, Washington). To make matters worse, Oregon is sitting at a 4-6 conference record.
Cal (68) Once left for dead, Cal has won its last three and now has an even 5-5 conference record. No terrible losses and the win at Washington State make for a decent profile. The next stretch of five games will be very challenging (Oregon, @Arizona, @ASU, @Stanford, WSU).

ACC (7, 3 Bids)
Probably In:
Clemson (26) In decent shape with no terrible losses, Clemson call fall back on its wins over Miss St and Purdue. At UNC this weekend, and the schedule doesn't get any easier as the season winds down.

Better Be Careful:
Maryland (60) On very thin ice, with the loss to American. They have won 9 of their last 11, including away at UNC and home against VT.
NC State (40) Despite the high RPI, NC State has surprising losses to New Orleans and East Carolina. They do have recent wins over Wake and VT, but with two upcoming roads games at Maryland and BC, followed by home games against Clemson and UNC, North Carolina State may end up on the wrong side of the bubble.

Outside Looking In:
Virginia Tech (67) The Hokies lack a big win and have three 100+ RPI losses (Penn State, ODU, Richmond). With a 14-9 record, Virginia Tech will need to go on a serious run to warrant consideration.
Wake Forest (91) Sub-.500 ACC record (3-5), with the only good win at home against BYU. The blowout losses at Georgia and Boston College don't help. Wake only has one road win all season (Iowa) so don't expect the selection committee to do these guys any favors.
Miami (48) Since starting 11-0 (against weak competition), Miami has gone 3-7 and doesn't appear long for the bubble. Wins over VCU, Providence and Miss St are decent and they don't have any terrible losses, but the 2-6 ACC record is devastating.

Dark Horse:
Georgia Tech (69) A difficult non-conference schedule left Ga Tech at 6-5 heading into ACC play, and while they haven't lit it up in conference matchups, they are faring better than Wake and Miami and a solid run could definitely give the Yellow Jackets a boost. Upcoming back to back road games at UConn and Clemson will tell the tale.

Last Four In:
UNLV
Seton Hall
NC State
Massachusetts

Last Four Out:
Illinois State
Mississippi State
Syracuse
Oregon

With some very interesting matchups this weekend, bubble candidates are bound to see their fortunes rise and fall. Teams with mediocre conference records (Cal, Oklahoma) could shoot up the ladder with a few key wins, while teams that look good(Arkansas, Clemson) could really be hurt by a few more losses.