Bubble Update

As much as I'd like to continue to do a full write-up on each potential tournament team, that would take way too much time. The real value is in the week-to-week changes, so I'll focus on that. Feel free to refer to my previous post for information on all teams.

With that said, let's get rolling.

Small Conference Leaders (15)
These teams absolutely will not make the tournament unless they win their conference tourney. The current regular season leader is listed for each conference, but you can throw that out the window once you get to single elimination.

America East – MD Baltimore County (RPI: 104)
Atlantic Sun – Belmont (99)
Big Sky – Portland St. (132)
Big South – Winthrop (116) Winthrop moves into first place in the Big South after previous conference leader UNC Asheville dropped its third consecutive game.
Big West – Cal St. Northridge (106)
Ivy League – Cornell (82)
MEAC – Morgan St (162) In a tie atop the standings with Norfolk State. Previous leader Hampton remains one game back. The winner of this conference will certainly be a candidate for the play-in game, along with the winner of the SWAC.
Metro Atlantic – Siena (92) Siena moved into first place in the Metro Atlantic after knocking off previous leader Rider. However, a loss in the following game puts them back into a two-team tie.
Northeast – Wagner (115) Wagner is in a close race, currently tied with Robert Morris and previous conference Sacred Heart a half game back.
Ohio Valley – Austin Peay (108)
Patriot League – American (124) Previous conference leader Lafeyette has now lost four in a row. American actually could be a dangerous tournament team, as they proved with their early season win at Maryland.
Southland – Lamar (135)
Summit League – Oral Roberts (45)
SWAC – Alabama St. (213)
WAC – Boise St. (78) Recently deposed Utah St. is on a two-game losing streak, moving Boise St. into first place in the WAC.

Small Conference Leaders who actually do have a chance of making the final field even without winning their conference tournament (SCLWADHACOMTFFEWWTCT) (8)
Colonial – VCU (65)
Horizon – Butler (19)
MAC – Kent St . (44)
Missouri Valley – Drake (10)
Mountain West – BYU (29)
Southern - Davidson (56) I moved Davidson into this category due to the recent poor performance of several at-large bubble teams. 17-0 is impressive in any conference, and if Davidson finishes undefeated, they will have to warrent consideration. Unfortunately, their best win is over Georgia Southern (89).
Sun Belt – Western Kentucky (50) By default, Western Kentucky moves into first place in the Sun Belt after South Alabama lost on the road at Middle Tennessee. I don't particularly like Western Kentucky's at-large chances right now, given that the highest ranked team they've beaten is Middle Tennessee (134) but crazier things have happened.
West Coast – St. Mary’s (27)

Mid-Major At-Large (12, 3 Bids)
Probably In:
West Coast - Gonzaga (39)

Better Be Careful:
Mountain West – UNLV (32)
Sun Belt – South Alabama (35) The loss at Middle Tennessee really hurts this team. Their next game is at Western Kentucky, where a win would put them back into first place in the conference. Their non-conference losses are nothing to be ashamed of, but it would have been nice if they could have won one more big game to add to their victory over Mississippi State.

Outside Looking In:
Conference USA - Houston (49) Even though they lost at Memphis, Houston has as good a profile as any of these other mid-major teams. They don't have a bad loss, but don't have a great win either, though the home win over Kentucky is decent.
Missouri Valley – Illinois St (53)
Missouri Valley - Southern Illinois (55) After the win over Drake, might as well put them on this list. Home wins over St. Mary's and Western Kentucky are nice, but not enough to overcome its 12 losses, over half of which came against teams that are not going to make the tournament.
Mountain West – New Mexico (54) New Mexico is making a nice run here at the end of the season, and if they can run the table, they will certainly merit discussion. Would not get in today, however.
Southland - Stephen F. Austin (59) With a 17-3 record, including a win at Oklahoma, Stephen F. Austin is an interesting scenario. Not likely to improve their numbers since their remaining opponents have an average RPI of around 200, but with a 22-3 record, it might be hard to turn them down.
Horizon - Wright State (64) Okay, I'm from Dayton, so I have to give these guys some props. They are on a ten game win streak and knocked off Butler earlier this season. With wins in upcoming games at Illinois State and Butler, Wright State could see its name pop up in more at-large discussions.

Thanks For Playing:
MAC – Ohio (62) Last week's losses at Toledo and Kent State have sealed Ohio's fate.
Colonial – George Mason (63) After losing at home, George Mason's marginal profile has absorbed about as much damage as it can. Six losses to 100+ RPI teams won't overcome its early wins against Dayton and Kansas State.
Missouri Valley – Creighton (69) Consecutive conference losses leave Creighton with an 8-7 conference record, which isn't helped by the fact that they only have one win worth mentioning.
Mountain West – San Diego St. (73) Three consecutive losses have put San Diego State in a deep hole. With no quality non-conference wins, it's not going to happen.

Potential One Seeds (7)
C-USA – Memphis (3)
SEC – Tennessee (1)
Big 12 – Kansas (5)
Big 12 – Texas (6) – Wins at home over Kansas and at Baylor move the Longhorns into potential one seed territory.
Pac-10 – UCLA (8)
ACC – Duke (2)
ACC – North Carolina (4)

A-10 (6, 4 bids)
Definitely In:
Xavier (10)

Better Be Careful:
St. Joe’s (43) St. Joseph won its two games this week, but I have to move them down because the overall quality of the A-10 appears to be dipping, and St. Joe's could get caught in a numbers game if they don't seperate themselves.
Rhode Island (25) Having lost two of their last three, Rhode Island is starting to slip, and their lack of a marquee win could cost them come selection time. The win at Syracuse is looking much better now.
Dayton (23)

Outside Looking In:
UMass (38) Since starting 13-4, Massachussets has lost five of its last seven games, including its most recent home loss to Fordham (156). Like Dayton, UMass probably won't end up any better than 8-8 in the A-10.
Temple (60)

Big Ten (5)
Definitely In:
Wisconsin (13)
Michigan St. (14)
Indiana (24) Indiana did lose at home to Wisconsin, but they also beat OSU on the road and crushed Michigan State at home. Barring a collapse, Indiana is in.
Purdue (28) Thanks to impressive wins over Wisconsin and Michigan State, plus their 12-1 conference record, Purdue can start planning its March Madness practices.

Probably In:
Ohio State (36)

SEC (6, 4 bids)
Definitely In:
Vanderbilt (11) What a difference a week can make. While they still haven't proven they can play strong on the road, Vanderbilt just knocked off top competitors Florida and Kentucky to solidify their place in the tournament.

Probably In:
Arkansas (31)

Better Be Careful:
Mississippi State (46) Impressive win over Arkansas gives Mississippi State an 8-2 SEC record, which helps neutralize its lack of a significant non-conference win.
Florida (57)

Outside Looking In:
Ole Miss (48) Wow. After starting 13-0, Ole Miss has gone 3-7 in the SEC, including two losses to Auburn (148). Its wins over Clemson and South Alabama won't bail them out if this mess.
Kentucky (71)

Big East (11, 8 Bids)
Definitely In:
Georgetown (7)
UConn (9)

Probably In:
Notre Dame (26)
Marquette (16)
Louisville (15) – With the win over Georgetown and two following road wins, Louisville looks to solidly be in the tournament.

Better Be Careful:
Pittsburgh (18)
West Virginia (40)
Syracuse (47) After losing at South Florida I was ready to write Syracuse off, but then they turn around and thump Georgetown. They still have a very tough schedule, but right now they would be in.

Outside Looking In:
Villanova (61)
Seton Hall (67) - Not helping their cause with four straight losses, even if they were to top opponents.

Thanks For Playing:
Providence (94) - They have now lost seven of their last eight to drop completely out of the race. They may not even make the Big East tournament at this point.

Big 12 (6, 4 bids)
Definitely In:
Kansas State (30)

Probably In:
Texas A&M (37)

Better Be Careful:
Baylor (42) Now losers of five of their last six, Baylor is treading in dangerous waters right now. Granted, three of the losses were to Texas and Kansas, but still...A win at Oklahoma this Tuesday would really help them out.
Oklahoma (34)

Outside Looking In:
Texas Tech (55)
Missouri (74)

Pac-10 (7, 4 bids)
Definitely In:
Stanford (21)

Probably In:
Arizona (17)
USC (33)
Washington State (22) After a three-game home slide, Washington State has now picked up wins over Oregon and USC to reach 20 wins.

Outside Looking In:
Oregon (52)
Arizona State (75) - Interesting situation here: ASU starts off 14-2, loses its next five, and then wins at Arizona and at home against Stanford. I'd be ready to put them in the tournament, but then they turn around and lose at home to Cal.
Cal (74)

ACC (8, 3 Bids)
Probably In:
Clemson (20)

Better Be Careful:
Maryland (51)
Wake Forest (61) No one else from the ACC seems to want to take the opportunity, so I'll go ahead and give the edge to Wake, despite the sub-par RPI. They can't win on the road, but they have a 6-5 conference record, including an impressive win over Duke. They also beat BYU fairly handily, and don't have a terrible loss. The remaining schedule is tough, so if they do well, they'll deserve to get in; if they don't, they won't.

Outside Looking In:
Miami (41)
NC State (58) Three straight losses leave NC State at 4-7 in the ACC, and the only have one or two more games out of five that they "should win". Not looking good.
Georgia Tech (70)
Boston College (81) – They finally won a game after losing six straight, so why not add them to this list? Plus, they have a better conference record than NC State
Virginia Tech (72)

Last Four In:
Dayton
Wake Forest
Florida
South Alabama

Last Four Out:
Arizona State
Miami
Houston
Stephen F. Austin

The way I see it, these eight teams are on very tenuous ground right now: UNLV, South Alabama, Dayton, Rhode Island, Florida, Syracuse, Baylor, and Wake Forest. Oklahoma, West Virginia, Mississippi State and St Joe’s are also somewhat marginal, but they are a step above the first bunch. The teams ranked ahead of these (“Probably In”) will almost certainly get in. In my opinion, the vast majority of teams from the major conferences that are listed in the “Outside Looking In” category really do not have profiles that warrant strong consideration. One characteristic that most of them share is a sub-.500 conference record. My memory may be hazy, but it seems very rare for any team to get into the tournament with a sub-.500 conference record. Also, I actually had a difficult time justifying letting in a couple of the teams that I did select, including Wake Forest and Dayton. Assuming a few upsets (and unexpected auto bids) in conference tournaments, the at-large bid pool will shrink, squeezing out some of these marginal teams.

Of the teams I haven’t listed as receiving bids, Kentucky, Arizona State and Villanova have the most potential to make a season-ending run to claim one of the last spots, given their decent conference records (at least relative to their bubble competitors) and remaining chances to score some big wins.