Top NFL QB Prospects - By the Numbers

Taking a break from college basketball for a moment, let's look at some of the potential first-day NFL quarterback draft prospects. NFL Draft gurus have been moving guys up and bumping guys down since the start of the college season back in August. Even since the last game, players such as Andre Woodson have fluctuated wildly without having played a single down. I have broken down key stats for four individuals, which I'll present first before revealing names.

Looking at last season's stats, I've classified key passing performance stats as "positive" and "negative", for simplicity's sake. By my judgment, the following stats are considered "good", or at least above average, for a single game: 60+% completion rate, 2 or more touchdown passes, no interceptions, and 8.0+ average yards per attempt. I considered the following to be "negative" performances: Under 50% completion rate, 0 TD's, two or more interceptions, and under 6.0 YPA.

Player A
Positive Stats:
60+% Compl – 10 games out of 14
2+ TD’s – 9/14
0 INT – 7/14
8.0+ YPA – 3/14

Negative:
Under 50% Comp – 1/14
0 TD’s – 1/14
2+ INTs – 2/14
Under 6.0 YPA – 5/14

Pro Passer Rating – 94.2

Player B
Positive:
60+% Compl – 5/10
2+ TD’s – 5/10
0 INT – 2/10
8.0+ YPA – 2/10

Negative:
Under 50% Comp – 1/10
0 TD’s – 1/10
2+ INTs – 2/10
Under 6.0 YPA – 1/10

Pro Passer Rating – 86.6

Player C
Positive:
60+% Compl – 8/14
2+ TD’s – 9/14
0 INT – 3/14
8.0+ YPA – 3/14

Negative:
Under 50% Comp – 4/14
0 TD’s – 1/14
2+ INTs – 7/14
Under 6.0 YPA – 6/14

Pro Passer Rating – 83.4

Player D
Positive:
60+% Compl – 8/13
2+ TD’s – 11/13
0 INT – 6/13
8.0+ YPA – 4/13

Negative:
Under 50% Comp – 0/13
0 TD’s – 0/13
2+ INTs – 3/13
Under 6.0 YPA – 2/14

Pro Passer Rating – 101.4

Now that we have some basic stats for each quarterback, let's take a deeper look and make a few comparisons between the group.

Player A - Erik Ainge: This player had the highest percentage out of the group for games with at least a 60% completion rate and no interceptions. This player also had the fewest number of games with two or more interceptions. One drawback is yards per attempt - Ainge has a relatively high number of games with a YPA under 6.0. Given the high completion percentage stats, it is likely that a conservative passing game with an emphasis on safe, short passes would have decreased yards per attempt while increasing completion rates. Ainge's statistics indicate that he makes good decisions and runs an efficient offense.

Player B - Chad Henne: While injuries certainly have to be factored into any analysis of Chad Henne's senior year, the most obvious assumption to be made is that Henne is the most consistently average quarterback out of the group. He failed to exceed a 50% "positive" performance in any of the statistical categories for the season as a whole, but at the same time, had very few "negative" performances. In fact, outside of the Ohio State game, Henne had only two "negative" performances in any category. Nearly all of his games produced stats that fell into the in-between or average range.

Player C - Matt Ryan: Ah, Mr. Ryan, the presumptive number one draft pick. Matt Ryan's "positive" performance counts are roughly similar to Erik Ainge's. However, the noticeable difference is that Matt Ryan only managed to complete three games without throwing an interception. What is more worrisome is Ryan's performance in the "negative" categories. Out of the group, he had the highest number of instances with a sub-50% completion rate, multiple interceptions, and sub-6.0 YPA. In fact, he had as many games with multiple interceptions as the other three quarterbacks combined, and had twice as many games with a completion percentage under 50%. It is also worth noting that Matt Ryan had the lowest passer rating out of the group.

Player D - Andre Woodson: Somewhat surprisingly, Woodson led or was right behind the leader in every "positive" category. He also performed well in the negative categories. Woodson threw two or more touchdowns in 11 of 13 games and never failed to complete a TD pass in any game. He never completed less than 50% of his passes and went without an interception in over half of his games. He also had the highest passer rating out of the group. Woodson was criticized once the Kentucky Wildcats tumbled out of the polls late in the season, but his stats did not deteriorate that greatly. Certainly, the increased level of compeititon contributed to the minor decline, but he only had one true "bad" game, which was the disappointing loss to Mississippi State.

If I was to rank the players purely by their statistical performances last year, it would probably be Woodson, Ainge, Henne, Ryan, which is essentially the reverse order in which they are likely to be drafted. Matt Ryan appears to be a certain first-rounder. Chad Henne will probably go in the third round, while Ainge could fall into the fourth or fifth round. Woodson is the hardest to predict and go anywhere between the second and fifth round.

I'm not trying to say that Matt Ryan will never be a successful NFL quarterback. Certainly, with the likes of the McCown brothers, Damon Huard and Todd Collins garnering significant playing time, there is ample opportunity for new players to step up. I just feel that Matt Ryan is not worthy of the number one overall pick, or should even go in the first round, and that players like Ainge and Woodson should be given more consideration for the success at the college level.

Matt Ryan gets a lot of credit for being a "leader" and winning the tough games, but was Boston College's season really all that much more successful than Tennessee or Michigan's seasons? The 14-10 win over Virginia propelled Matt Ryan into the spotlight, but lost in shine of that winning throw was Virginia Tech's pathetic prevent defense and the fact that Ryan also completed less than half of his passes and threw two interceptions that game.

Granted, the NFL requires a different skill set than the college game, and maybe Ainge doesn't have a strong enough arm, or Woodson has a funky delivery, but shouldn't statistical performance count for something? Scouts may be impressed by Matt Ryan's 4500 yard season, but if you really dig into it, the numbers are not quite as impressive. As financial firms always state, past performance does not guarantee future returns - but at the very least, it gives you an idea of what to expect.