True to typical BCS form (as of late) Texas Tech laid a huge egg against Oklahoma and tumbled out of the BCS race. For the moment. Analysts are already putting together scenarios in which the now 7th ranked Red Raiders can return to title game contention.
How big of a disaster would that be? Think about it. Let's say Oklahoma State knocks off Oklahoma next week. That would propel Texas Tech to the Big 12 Championship game, where they would face a Missouri team that has already been manhandled by Red Raider-victim Texas. Texas Tech would likely pass both Texas and Oklahoma with a Big 12 title on its resume, and presumably Utah and the loser of Alabama-Florida as well. For those keeping track at home, that would push them from #7 to #3. Would voters leapfrog Texas Tech over a somewhat uninspiring (and currently 5th ranked) USC team? Hard to say, but I can just imagine the complaints if a team that recently lost by 40+ points ended up in the title game.
In other news, we are inching dangerously close to another yawn-inducing Rose Bowl. Now that Penn State has locked up a Rose Bowl berth, no one seems to be mentioning the fact that current Pac-10 leader Oregon State has already played Penn State. And they certainly aren't mentioning the fact that the first matchup ended before it even started, with Penn State claiming a 45-14 victory. While I would love to see USC miss a BCS bowl, I'd much rather see them play Penn State that have to suffer a week-one rematch. Expect the Rose Bowl brass to be secretly rooting for Oregon to take down Oregon State this weekend.
The ACC continues to prove that is a worthless conference. Odds are overwhelming that the conference champion will have at least four losses, unless Boston College can salvage what's left of the ACC's dignity by winning out. Only three teams have less than four losses, and all three sit at three losses. Boston College of course is one of them, and the other two are Florida State and Georgia Tech. The latter two teams each have tough out of conference rivalry games (against Florida and Georgia, respectively) remaining, so I would not count on either of them pulling out a win.
Utah, Boise State, and Ball State all won to remain undefeated, but odds are that only one of them will receive a BCS invitation. Given that Utah has already wrapped up its season and has a hefty BCS ranking advantage over their two 'mid-major' rivals, it looks like tough cookies for Boise State and Ball State.
In another blow for Tennessee, albeit an indirect one, Wyoming fired its coach this week. What does it say about Tennessee's program that a win over Tennessee would not be enough to save the job of a coach at Wyoming (Wyoming!)? Five years ago, this would have been talked about for weeks, but now it's just another disappointing event in a looong season.
The Cincinnati Bearcats are poised to claim a Big East automatic BCS berth after downing Pitt. Only a win over lowly Syracuse stands in the way of a potential Orange Bowl appearance. Great job by that team, and totally unexpected this season: The Big East media picked Cincinnati to finish fifth in the conference. Expect to hear head coach Brian Kelley's name thrown around alot this offseason in connection with various big-time openings.
Finally, a word on Alabama. Yes, they are undefeated, but I can't help feeling they will fall short before they even reach the SEC championship game. According to most statistical rankings, Alabama has the weakest schedule of any top 25 team, excluding the non-BCS schools. Other than the big win over Georgia (in which they only played well for the first half) Alabama really hasn't put together a dominant performance. Three of their SEC wins have come by less than a touchdown, and those were against mid-tier teams like LSU, Ole Miss and Kentucky. Alabama clearly has talent, but I think they have benefited from a slightly easier schedule than the rest of their SEC counterparts. The Iron Bowl will be a big mental challenge this weekend. Although Auburn is not as talented as they have been in the past, emotions always run high in the Iron Bowl and I expect a tough game. Also, Alabama hasn't beaten Auburn since 2001, so this game certainly isn't a given for 'Bama.
Monday, November 24, 2008
Monday, November 17, 2008
Maybe Obama isn't the Anti-Christ after all...
You have to give Obama credit. Politicians have long attacked unpopular ideas in order to build their support. What better way to bring the country together after a divisive election than by attacking the wildly unpopular BCS? Even though the idea of the (future) most powerful man in the world stooping down to meddle in the world of college athletics is a little absurd, it is definitely a smart play.
The common man may not understand the reasons for the mortgage crisis (which is probably why we have the crisis in the first place), whether or not the domestic auto manufacturers are worth saving, or how to simultaneously reduce the federal deficit and lower taxes, but he does know one thing: the BCS sucks.
College football is the only major team sport that does not have an inclusive post-season tournament, and as long as the networks continue to sign decade-long deals with BCS bigwigs, we’ll never see any change. Whether the future President himself could force the BCS power-brokers to institute a playoff is debatable, but he will certainly earn himself a few more favorable opinions by at least pretending to try to do something about it.
I have supported a playoff system in the past, but one of the problems is that while everyone seems to want a playoff, no one can agree on the structure. At the moment, an eight team playoff seems to be the most popular, but some are arguing for a four or sixteen team playoff. Four teams is clearly not enough to have a true playoff, and sixteen would dilute the value of the regular season. For example, Oklahoma and USC are ranked fifth and sixth in the BCS, but most people would concede that those two teams are just as deserving as number three Texas. Well, at least USC is, since Texas already beat Oklahoma. As far as having sixteen teams, just consider that Michigan State and TCU are ranked 15th and 16th, respectively. While both are solid teams, most would agree that including three teams each from the Big Ten (also: Penn State, Ohio State) and MWC (also: Utah, BYU) is a little excessive.
Location also seems to be a concern. Where would these playoff games be held? Would the fans be able to travel with such short notice? It doesn’t seem to be an issue in other sports, but for some reason it keeps coming up in this debate. The NFL and NCAA Final Four fans seem to manage with the uncertainty, and I don’t see why it would be a problem for a college football playoff. As long as a clear bracket was established, fans would know in advance where their team might end up.
Other concerns such as “hurting student athletes” by extending the season are ludicrous. All other divisions of college football have a playoff, and most of those schools have more of an emphasis on academics than the college football factories.
Perhaps the BCS proponents’ strongest argument is the most basic one: it’s all about money. Since the inception of the BCS, college football has never been more popular. Television networks are falling over themselves trying to secure the rights to televise games. More and more schools are expanding their stadiums and adding luxury suites. College football is bringing in more money than ever. With a playoff, would people still tune in to the regular season?
First of all, I don’t believe that an eight team playoff would be all that dilutive to the regular season. Winning a conference title is still a major accomplishment, and fans will continue to tune in to see those games. Most big-time programs have several heated rivalries, and with the small number of games per year, each individual game carries huge importance. One argument against a playoff system is that fans will lose interest in these late-season games (such as Penn State losing to Iowa) because they will lack the drama of an elimination-type game. However, I could argue that the BCS makes virtually every game meaningless. Once your team loses, it is basically eliminated from contention. What reason do you have to watch the games of other teams after your team loses?
Of course, that is not true. Michigan and Tennessee still have packed houses for their games despite horrific seasons. Fans will continue to watch games like Penn State-Iowa because they love college football and the game has a significant factor in deciding the conference championship.
The biggest reason for a playoff goes beyond money (and the millions a playoff would generate) because college football (and sports in general) is about more than that. Players play to win. This isn’t gymnastics. Style points shouldn’t matter. Decide the outcome on the field. How can you tell a 12-0 Utah or Ball State “congrats on winning all your games, now enjoy the Humanitarian Bowl”? Don’t they deserve a chance to play for it all? How do you tell an 11-1 USC that their 11-1 isn’t as good as Florida or Oklahoma’s?
At some point you have to look past all the fluff to see the truth, and truth is that college football needs a playoff.
The common man may not understand the reasons for the mortgage crisis (which is probably why we have the crisis in the first place), whether or not the domestic auto manufacturers are worth saving, or how to simultaneously reduce the federal deficit and lower taxes, but he does know one thing: the BCS sucks.
College football is the only major team sport that does not have an inclusive post-season tournament, and as long as the networks continue to sign decade-long deals with BCS bigwigs, we’ll never see any change. Whether the future President himself could force the BCS power-brokers to institute a playoff is debatable, but he will certainly earn himself a few more favorable opinions by at least pretending to try to do something about it.
I have supported a playoff system in the past, but one of the problems is that while everyone seems to want a playoff, no one can agree on the structure. At the moment, an eight team playoff seems to be the most popular, but some are arguing for a four or sixteen team playoff. Four teams is clearly not enough to have a true playoff, and sixteen would dilute the value of the regular season. For example, Oklahoma and USC are ranked fifth and sixth in the BCS, but most people would concede that those two teams are just as deserving as number three Texas. Well, at least USC is, since Texas already beat Oklahoma. As far as having sixteen teams, just consider that Michigan State and TCU are ranked 15th and 16th, respectively. While both are solid teams, most would agree that including three teams each from the Big Ten (also: Penn State, Ohio State) and MWC (also: Utah, BYU) is a little excessive.
Location also seems to be a concern. Where would these playoff games be held? Would the fans be able to travel with such short notice? It doesn’t seem to be an issue in other sports, but for some reason it keeps coming up in this debate. The NFL and NCAA Final Four fans seem to manage with the uncertainty, and I don’t see why it would be a problem for a college football playoff. As long as a clear bracket was established, fans would know in advance where their team might end up.
Other concerns such as “hurting student athletes” by extending the season are ludicrous. All other divisions of college football have a playoff, and most of those schools have more of an emphasis on academics than the college football factories.
Perhaps the BCS proponents’ strongest argument is the most basic one: it’s all about money. Since the inception of the BCS, college football has never been more popular. Television networks are falling over themselves trying to secure the rights to televise games. More and more schools are expanding their stadiums and adding luxury suites. College football is bringing in more money than ever. With a playoff, would people still tune in to the regular season?
First of all, I don’t believe that an eight team playoff would be all that dilutive to the regular season. Winning a conference title is still a major accomplishment, and fans will continue to tune in to see those games. Most big-time programs have several heated rivalries, and with the small number of games per year, each individual game carries huge importance. One argument against a playoff system is that fans will lose interest in these late-season games (such as Penn State losing to Iowa) because they will lack the drama of an elimination-type game. However, I could argue that the BCS makes virtually every game meaningless. Once your team loses, it is basically eliminated from contention. What reason do you have to watch the games of other teams after your team loses?
Of course, that is not true. Michigan and Tennessee still have packed houses for their games despite horrific seasons. Fans will continue to watch games like Penn State-Iowa because they love college football and the game has a significant factor in deciding the conference championship.
The biggest reason for a playoff goes beyond money (and the millions a playoff would generate) because college football (and sports in general) is about more than that. Players play to win. This isn’t gymnastics. Style points shouldn’t matter. Decide the outcome on the field. How can you tell a 12-0 Utah or Ball State “congrats on winning all your games, now enjoy the Humanitarian Bowl”? Don’t they deserve a chance to play for it all? How do you tell an 11-1 USC that their 11-1 isn’t as good as Florida or Oklahoma’s?
At some point you have to look past all the fluff to see the truth, and truth is that college football needs a playoff.
Friday, November 7, 2008
11/8 Weekend Preview
This week’s college football schedule has already produced a few noteworthy results. Ball State continues to roll, with Northern Illinois their latest victim. The have allowed less than 10 points per game in their last four wins while averaging nearly 35 points on offense. As I mentioned a few weeks ago, Ball State’s two toughest games are still yet to come, with Central Michigan and Western Michigan (both 7-2) looming at the end of the season. Even if the Cardinals run the table (including the MAC Championship game) it’s hard to envision them ending up anywhere other than the Motor City Bowl.
In ACC conference play, Virginia Tech ‘upset’ Maryland (even though the Hokies were favored and playing at home) which confirmed that Maryland simply does not belong in the upper tier of the ACC. Then again, who can really separate the ACC into tiers? The only team that clearly has no chance of winning the conference is NC State, sitting in the cellar with a 0-4 conference record. Even Duke (1-3) has only one more conference loss than Coastal division leader Georgia Tech (4-2). In fact, every team except for NC State has either two or three conference losses. If I had to pick a favorite, I might go with North Carolina. They host Georgia Tech this weekend, and finish up with Maryland, NC State and Duke.
BCS haters all over the country were tuned in to Utah-TCU last night (well, those who have CBS College Sports Network…huh?), where the two Mountain West teams had a hard-fought, low-scoring game that ended in a 13-10 win for the Utes. TCU was favored by 3 points, despite Utah’s undefeated record and home field advantage. However, they were undone by two late missed field goals and a gut-wrenching, game-winning Utah touchdown drive in the final minute. Utah now has three relatively solid wins (Oregon State, Air Force, TCU) but even a win over 8-1 BYU probably won’t be enough evidence for a solid title game argument. However, a BCS bowl berth is certainly a possibility. Utah only needs to finish in the BCS top 12 (they are currently ranked 8th) so if Utah wins out, they will certainly receive a BCS bowl bid.
As far as the weekend games, I would not be surprised to be see all three of the top ranked teams lose. #1 Alabama is heading to Death Valley to play LSU, and while LSU has struggled against top opponents (Florida, Georgia) this game will have a completely different feel due the emotion of Nick Saban returning to LSU. The general consensus among LSU fans is that they appreciate what he did for the school, but they have no respect for him. This game will definitely be tougher than it appears on paper for the Tide.
#2 Texas Tech hosts Oklahoma State, and the big question will be whether they can keep the momentum going after the huge Texas win. The Red Raiders are only three point favorites, so Vegas isn’t expecting them to run away with it. Oklahoma State has a strong running game and could surprise Texas Tech. #3 Penn State is on the road this week, and they will face Iowa. Clearly Iowa isn’t as much of a challenge as the two previous teams’ opponents, but Iowa may be a tad underrated. They have a great running back, and all four of their losses have come by a touchdown or less.
As I mentioned before, the winner of North Carolina-Georgia Tech will have the inside track to the Coastal division championship, and North Carolina has to be happy that they will have home field advantage. Virginia and Wake Forest also face off in what could be an elimination game. Even though they are in different divisions, both teams cannot afford another loss at this point in the season.
Tennessee and Auburn will have the opportunity to get a win, although for their offenses nothing is easy at this point. Tennessee hosts Wyoming, while Auburn welcomes Tennessee-Martin. If either one of those teams loses, expect immediate rioting.
In ACC conference play, Virginia Tech ‘upset’ Maryland (even though the Hokies were favored and playing at home) which confirmed that Maryland simply does not belong in the upper tier of the ACC. Then again, who can really separate the ACC into tiers? The only team that clearly has no chance of winning the conference is NC State, sitting in the cellar with a 0-4 conference record. Even Duke (1-3) has only one more conference loss than Coastal division leader Georgia Tech (4-2). In fact, every team except for NC State has either two or three conference losses. If I had to pick a favorite, I might go with North Carolina. They host Georgia Tech this weekend, and finish up with Maryland, NC State and Duke.
BCS haters all over the country were tuned in to Utah-TCU last night (well, those who have CBS College Sports Network…huh?), where the two Mountain West teams had a hard-fought, low-scoring game that ended in a 13-10 win for the Utes. TCU was favored by 3 points, despite Utah’s undefeated record and home field advantage. However, they were undone by two late missed field goals and a gut-wrenching, game-winning Utah touchdown drive in the final minute. Utah now has three relatively solid wins (Oregon State, Air Force, TCU) but even a win over 8-1 BYU probably won’t be enough evidence for a solid title game argument. However, a BCS bowl berth is certainly a possibility. Utah only needs to finish in the BCS top 12 (they are currently ranked 8th) so if Utah wins out, they will certainly receive a BCS bowl bid.
As far as the weekend games, I would not be surprised to be see all three of the top ranked teams lose. #1 Alabama is heading to Death Valley to play LSU, and while LSU has struggled against top opponents (Florida, Georgia) this game will have a completely different feel due the emotion of Nick Saban returning to LSU. The general consensus among LSU fans is that they appreciate what he did for the school, but they have no respect for him. This game will definitely be tougher than it appears on paper for the Tide.
#2 Texas Tech hosts Oklahoma State, and the big question will be whether they can keep the momentum going after the huge Texas win. The Red Raiders are only three point favorites, so Vegas isn’t expecting them to run away with it. Oklahoma State has a strong running game and could surprise Texas Tech. #3 Penn State is on the road this week, and they will face Iowa. Clearly Iowa isn’t as much of a challenge as the two previous teams’ opponents, but Iowa may be a tad underrated. They have a great running back, and all four of their losses have come by a touchdown or less.
As I mentioned before, the winner of North Carolina-Georgia Tech will have the inside track to the Coastal division championship, and North Carolina has to be happy that they will have home field advantage. Virginia and Wake Forest also face off in what could be an elimination game. Even though they are in different divisions, both teams cannot afford another loss at this point in the season.
Tennessee and Auburn will have the opportunity to get a win, although for their offenses nothing is easy at this point. Tennessee hosts Wyoming, while Auburn welcomes Tennessee-Martin. If either one of those teams loses, expect immediate rioting.
Monday, November 3, 2008
Thanks for the Memories
So it's official - Phillip Fulmer is out as coach of the Tennessee Volunteers. I can't say that I didn't expect this would happen, but what is surprising is how I feel about it.After the Alabama game, I was ready to join the throngs calling for Fulmer's head. Tennessee had once again failed to defeat a hated rival, and the Vols were pretty much trounced in the process. And unfortunately, it wasn't anything new. The Vols' failures against their "Big Three" rivals (Georgia, Florida, Alabama) is well documented. They have managed only three victories against the trio in their last twelve attempts.
The team's early season offensive woes can be partially attributed to Jonathan Crompton, who disappointed many Vols fans that expected him to come in and pick up where Erik Ainge left off, but he certainly doesn't deserve all of the blame. The offensive line has also been a huge disappointment, which left Tennessee's talented group of running backs unable to break free. Even special teams has dipped this year, with last year's freshman sensation kicker Daniel Lincoln taking huge steps backward this year. He is barely converting 50% of field goal tries after connecting on 75% of his tries last year.
The defense has been one of the lone bright spots this season. Safety Eric Berry leads the nation in interceptions and the defense is currently ranked 11th in the nation in yards allowed per game. Sure, part of that ranking might be that the opposition is constantly getting the ball in good field position, but it's still a notable achievement. When watching the Vols play, you can tell that the defense is talented and never gives up, even when the offense is sputtering.
In any case, after watching Tennessee fall to Alabama again, I was ready to write Fulmer off. However, after watching this past week's game against South Carolina I started to realize that a coach can only take his team so far. Players have to execute, and the bottom line all season (at least for the offense) has been a failure to execute. Fulmer didn't throw that ill-advised interception that was returned for a touchdown. He didn't fumble at his own 4 yard line (which led to another SC touchdown) or continually drop passes, miss blocks, or make stupid penalties. Sure, coaching should improve players' performances and reduce stupid mistakes, but again, there is only so much he can do.
One of Phillip Fulmer's best attributes over the years has been his recruiting. Three of his last seven classes have been ranked in the top 4 (according to rivals.com) with two others in the top twenty. Even amidst all the controversy this season, Tennessee's 2009 recruiting class is currently rated sixth in the nation. How many of those recruits will Tennessee lose when Fulmer leaves? Verbal commit Jarvis Giles, rated the number two all-purpose back in the country and from Florida no less, has already expressed concern over Fulmer's departure.
I'm sure that everyone recalls Penn State's dark days just a few years ago. During the five year 2000-2004 stretch, Penn State only made ONE bowl game, which they lost. Penn State endured two consecutive 9th place Big Ten finishes (with three total conference wins in that span) before rebounding to an 11-1 2005 season, complete with a BCS bowl win. As I'm sure you are aware, this year Penn State has a fairly clear path to a 12-0 season and a possible appearance in the National Championship game. JoePa heard the cries for his head, but the university stuck by him in those tough times and now he is showing the country that he and his team still have it.
College football is a cyclical game, and in a sport where stars and benchwarmers alike come and go in a few short seasons, continuity has to be worth something. One merely has to look at the messes in Auburn and Clemson to see that constantly changing the coaching staff doesn't always generate instant success.
For every Alabama Saban-like turnaround, how many Bill Callahan (Nebraska) disasters do you have? Jim Tressel was able to take Ohio State to the next level after his predecessor John Cooper couldn't seem to beat Michigan, but when Michigan tried the same thing after Lloyd Carr... Well, just look at the mess they have with Rich Rodriguez.
It's easy to pile on Phillip Fulmer right now, but I think fans and neutral observers alike can agree that Fulmer gave everything he had to Tennessee and deserved more on his way out. Many people will remember the outpouring of support that Fulmer received from famous Tennessee alums (including Peyton Manning) last season when his job security appeared to be on the ropes, but it became a moot issue when the Vols rallied to appear in the SEC Championship. By all accounts, he has the same support among his current players.
The SEC has grown exponentially over the last few years in talent (both players and coaches) and, fair or not, Fulmer often appeared to be a lumbering dinosaur against the likes of Urban Meyer and Mark Richt. However, I shudder at the thought of an Auburn-like spread disaster at Tennessee, and I can only hope the school's leadership has a solid plan for who they want to bring in to take over the reins. As a life-long Vol fan, I can barely remember the pre-Fulmer era, and it will certainly take awhile to get used to seeing someone else roaming those sidelines.
Administrative Announcement
I’ve made a slight format change to the site. I will continue to use this space to write about college football (and basketball to some degree) but my talents on professional sports have been pried away to the esteemed OneGameOut.
Please check them out for my musings on the NFL, NBA, MLB, soccer, racing, hockey, and various other shenanigans and random observations.
That way this site can remain true to its original intent – writing about how great the SEC is!
Please check them out for my musings on the NFL, NBA, MLB, soccer, racing, hockey, and various other shenanigans and random observations.
That way this site can remain true to its original intent – writing about how great the SEC is!
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