World Cup 2010 Qualification Preview

Just because I said that Spain should savor it European Championship doesn’t mean I can’t start looking forward to the World Cup. Qualification is already underway in every confederation, with the exception of Europe. Following a two month reprieve after the just-completed Euro Championships, UEFA qualification will start in late August/early September.

Here is breakdown of the qualification process:
CONCACAF (North America/Carribean) – 3 or 4 teams. After a series of preliminary rounds that eliminated all the countries with no real chance, twelve teams remain. These teams have been seeded into three groups of four, and the top two teams from each group will advance to the final group stage. The top three finishers advance to South Africa, with the fourth place team facing off against the fifth place South American team in a home-and-home playoff for the last slot. The top three seeded teams are USA, Mexico, and Costa Rica. It would be a huge shock if either USA or Mexico failed to advance, but the third guaranteed seed has to be considered up for grabs. Honduras, Jamaica and Guatemala look to be the strongest challengers, in addition to Costa Rica.

Africa – 5 teams. In addition to host South Africa, Africa will qualify 5 teams. Currently, 48 teams are still alive, and have been placed into 12 groups of four. The top finisher from each group and the top eight second place teams will then be seeded into five groups of four. The winner of each group advances to South Africa. The qualification process seems a little convoluted to me, and somewhat arbitrary. Only eight of the twelve second places teams advance to the final round? Why not eliminate eight more teams in the first preliminary round, leaving 40 teams and ten groups of four? Eh, oh well… I won’t claim to know which African teams are the best, but I would have to say that Cameroon and Nigeria are most likely to advance. I would also expect Ghana and Ivory Coast to be strong in qualification. Beyond that, maybe Egypt and Morocco…

Asia – 4 or 5 teams. Asia has already reached the final round of its qualification, with ten teams remaining. The ten teams have been placed into two groups of five. The top two finishers from each group automatically qualify for South Africa. The two third places teams will then have a home-and-home playoff for the right to face the winner of Oceania in a final playoff. The winner of that leg will advance to World Cup 2010. The clear favorites from Group One are Japan and Australia. The second group is a little more competitive, with South Korea and Iran as the favorites. North Korea and Saudi Arabia will probably duke it out for the right to face New Zealand become the region’s fifth qualifier.

Oceania – 0 or 1 team. As mentioned above, the winner of this region will face the fifth Asian team in a final playoff. I would be shocked if anyone other than New Zealand wins the region, but it likely won’t matter because they still have to face (and defeat) a decent team from Asia.

South America – 4 or 5 teams. Just as in every other tournament, the South American teams face a grueling league-style qualification that pits the ten teams against each for a home and away leg. The top four finishers automatically qualify for the World Cup, while the fifth place team has a playoff against the fourth place CONCACAF team. So, pretty much, the top five South American teams will qualify. Despite Brazil’s current fifth place position, they, along with Argentina, have to be locks to advance. Paraguay also looks strong, which means that the final two spots will likely come down to Colombia, Uruguay, Chile, and possibly Venezuela.

Europe – 13 teams. Like South America, Europe essentially has one giant qualification round. The 53 teams have been seeded and divided into nine groups. The winners of each group automatically advance to the World Cup, while the top 8 second place teams are drawn into four home-and-home playoffs. The four winners will then also advance to the World Cup. Like the African qualifying, it seems a little odd to leave out one (or more) second place finishers, but I’m sure they have their reasons. It seems reasonable to expect the majority of the teams that qualified for Euro 2008 will also advance to South Africa. Ironically, England has once again been placed against Croatia in qualifying. After Croatia eliminated them from Euro 2008, England will be keen to avoid the same fate for its World Cup dreams. England will also have to contend with Ukraine. Generally speaking, the usual suspects (Spain, Germany, Italy, Portugal, Netherlands) should advance without a problem. If I had to pick two “surprise” qualifiers, I would say Ireland and Israel. Israel has been on the cusp for years and they have the good fortune of a relatively easy qualifying group, with Greece and Switzerland the only other decent teams. Ireland is seeded with Italy, who have been struggling somewhat, and Ireland would only need to overcome Bulgaria to finish second. Euro 2008 surprise performers Russia and Turkey may be fighting for playoff spots, as they are seeded with Germany and Spain, respectively.

I know we still have two years to go, but I am looking forward to seeing which teams succeed and which teams falter. For those of you who are keeping track, the United States kick off their current qualifying round at Guatemala on August 20, which is historically a tough environment for visiting teams.