SEC West Preview

Since the college season has already gotten started, I better get on my game with these SEC previews. One division down, one to go. I'll be honest - I have much less interest in the SEC West. The Mississippi and Alabama schools really don't interest me, and for the most part have been mediocre for the last ten years with the exception of a couple of good Auburn seasons. LSU, of course, has come on strongly, but as a Tennessee fan, I'm primarily concerned with seeing the Vols win the East, competing with Florida and Georgia. I still hate Alabama, but they haven't been relevant for awhile now.

With that said, let's get right into it. Here is how I see the SEC West finishing:

Auburn 10-2 (6-2)
LSU 10-2 (6-2)
Alabama 7-5 (4-4)
Mississippi State 6-6 (3-5)
Arkansas 6-6 (3-5)
Ole Miss 5-7 (2-6)

I can't say for sure whether LSU or Auburn will come out on top. Auburn does have a slightly easier schedule, since they host LSU and play Tennessee instead of Florida, so I would be tempted to give them any tie-breaker edge. However, I'm still not 100% sold on Auburn's new spread offense, and whether they can shed their history of offensive ineptitude. LSU may struggle without a proven QB, and the rest of the division still has a multitude of questions to answer. Can Arkansas be successful without Darren McFadden and Felix Jones? Will Mississippi State be able to replicate their surprise season? Will Ole Miss' transfer QB solve their offensive woes? Can Alabama succeed with all of its young talent?

Auburn
Expected Finish: 10-2 (6-2)
In addition to the usual grind of the SEC schedule, Auburn will have to face West Virginia in late October, when both teams are reaching their peaks. Auburn is somewhat fortunate that their three toughest games will all be at home - Georgia, LSU, and Tennessee. The Iron Bowl, as always, will be a challenge. Auburn always has a stout defense, and if the offense is as good as people say it can be, Auburn could be a surprise national championship contender.
Best Case: 12-0 (8-0)
Everything goes right and Auburn runs the table, only this time they actually get a chance to play for the National Title. With LSU's question marks, Auburn is primed to step up and claim the spot as top SEC dog.
Worst Case: 6-6 (3-5)
Auburn's new offense doesn't take hold, and the Tigers can't compete with the likes of LSU and Georgia. To add insult to injury, Alabama finally wins the Iron Bowl and Auburn ends up in the Independence Bowl, or computers.com bowl, or wherever they send crappy 6-6 teams.

LSU
Expected Finish: 10-2 (6-2)
LSU's non-conference schedule leaves something to be desired, but should provide four easy wins, and with the two Mississippi schools, South Carolina, and Arkansas, eight wins should be no problem. If the QB situation is resolved, I can see LSU winning at least one of these three games: Georgia, @Florida, @Auburn. It will tough to win any more than that, and all three will be dangerous. Expect the September 20 date with Auburn to set the tone for LSU's season.
Best Case: 11-1 (7-1)
I just can't see LSU going undefeated. They will slip up at least once, and they just don't have the upside potential that Auburn does. Granted, their downside is minimal, but I think what you see is what you get with LSU. Of course, a division title opens up the chance to play for the National Championship, so 11-1 might as well be 12-0.
Worst Case: 8-4 (4-4)
With LSU's cake non-conference schedule, this is about as low as I see the Tigers going. Their swarming defense will win them some close games, but if the offense struggles, they won't be able to keep up with Florida and Georgia.

Alabama
Expected Finish: 7-5 (4-4)
Alabama has a much more difficult schedule than its cross-state rival Auburn, and doesn't quite have the pedigree to convince me they can remain a top 25 team. Not only does Alabama travel to Georgia, Tennessee and LSU, but they have to open up against Clemson. Perhaps Clemson will prove to be overrated, but I think a big loss there will send Alabama spiraling downward. The young talent they have won't be able to contribute right away, and Alabama could struggle.
Best Case: 10-2 (6-2)
Alabama surpasses expectations while a couple of other highly ranked teams falter. The Tide bookends its season with big wins against Clemson and Auburn, and sneaks into the SEC Championship.
Worst Case: 6-6 (3-5)
Perhaps I'm already so pessimistic on the Tide that I don't see them falling much further than my base prediction. With three easy nonconference games and Mississippi State, Ole Miss, and Kentucky all at home, I don't see how Alabama doesn't reach six wins. However, I doubt they'll get many more.

Mississippi State
Expected Finish: 6-6 (3-5)
Last year, Mississippi State overachieved and ended up 8-5, despite being outscored by about 2 points per game. I think the Bulldogs will come back down to earth a little this year. MSU has three guaranteed wins on their schedule (LA Tech, SE Louisiana, Middle Tennessee) but I don't expect them to fare well in SEC play. An early season trip to Georgia Tech will prove whether or not this team can match last season's performance.
Best Case: 8-4 (4-4)
Mississippi State matches last season's win total, beats Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl, and pulls off a major upset against Auburn, Alabama or Tennessee.
Worst Case: 4-8 (2-6)
MSU loses at home to Vanderbilt, or worse, loses to one of the cake nonconference teams on its schedule.

Arkansas
Expected Finish: 6-6 (3-5)
Without McFadden and Felix Jones, I just don't see how Arkansas is going to compete this year. Also, their schedule is not too friendly, as nearly all of their "toss-up" games are on the road. Don't expect Arkansas to upset LSU again this year. Unless the Razorbacks can work some magic, they will need to win on the road (Kentucky, South Carolina, Mississippi State) if they want to reach a bowl game this year. Their trip to Texas could end up being a humiliation.
Best Case: 8-4 (5-3)
This would be a serious stretch, and assumes that Arkansas can take all of its "winnable" games and upset at least one of these teams: Texas, Alabama, Auburn, Florida, LSU. The only team I give them a chance against is Alabama, but I'm still not convinced they can even beat Kentucky and South Carolina.
Worst Case: 3-9 (0-8)
I wouldn't be terribly surprised to see this happen. After two easy games against Western Illinois and LA-Monroe, Arkansas has a brutal four game stretch against Texas, Alabama, Florida and Auburn. That could be enough to completely shatter this team's confidence.

Ole Miss
Expected Finish: 5-7 (2-6)
Ole Miss went winless in the SEC last year, but has generated plenty of buzz about new transfer QB Jevan Snead. We should know what this team is about by the second week, when they travel to face Wake Forest. A win there will generate momentum, but a bad loss could confirm another lost season for the Rebels. I believe they could win home games against Vanderbilt and Mississippi State, but anything beyond that will be a success. With the rest of the division full of questions, who knows, maybe all the experts are right that Ole Miss could surprise people. But I'll believe it when I see it.
Best Case: 8-4 (4-4)
Ole Miss gets that big win against Wake Forest and manages to hold its own against the SEC West. Florida, Alabama, Auburn and LSU have to be considered sure losses, but the rest of the games are winnable.
Worst Case: 3-9 (0-8)
A repeat of last season. Jevan Snead is the next coming of Brent Schaeffer and Ole Miss is back to square one.

Well, that's all for now. It's been a great start for SEC football, as Vanderbilt and South Carolina have already posted big wins. Granted, Miami (OH) and NC State are not huge talents, but it is impressive to see the middle and low SEC teams taking care of business.

SEC East Preview

Now, what you have all been waiting for...the start of college football! Tonight is the official kickoff of the 2008 season, but the real intriguing matchups don't get started until this Saturday. This weekend is highlighted by Alabama-Clemson, Florida-Hawaii, Missouri-Illinois, Kentucky-Louisville, and Tennessee-UCLA. Championships are never won in the first game, but as the cliche goes, they can certainly be lost.

As promised, I will provide a rundown of the upcoming SEC season, starting with the SEC East. Georgia and Florida are the clear favorites, with Georgia currently sitting atop the polls and Florida not far behind at number 5. Interestingly, the SEC media picked Florida to win the SEC, not Georgia, so maybe they know something the national media doesn't...like maybe Georgia has a few more arrests than they've shared... I kid, I kid...

Phil Fulmer has been quoted as saying that nine of the twelve SEC teams feel they have a chance to win the SEC this year. While I appreciate that his point illustrates the depth of the conference, it is a bit of a stretch. Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Arkansas, Mississippi State, and Ole Miss have to be dreaming if they really think they can pull off an SEC Championship. You could probably lump South Carolina in there as well, but with the Ol' Ball Coach you can never be too sure.

Here is my prediction for the SEC East finish:
1. Georgia 10-2 (6-2)
2. Florida 10-2 (6-2)
3. Tennessee 9-3 (5-3)
4. Kentucky 7-5 (4-4)
5. South Carolina 5-7 (2-6)
6. Vanderbilt 4-8 (1-7)

Nothing too drastically different from last year, but I don't expect to see Tennessee pull off a surprise SEC East title two years in a row. This division title will come down to November 1, when Georgia battles Florida at the World's Largest Cocktail Party, or whatever they are calling it these days. Kentucky should expect to see a slight dropoff after losing star QB Andre Woodson. Vanderbilt always play tough, but will be hard pressed to surpass last season's five wins. South Carolina simply has a brutal schedule, and could find themselves permanently in last place if they lose at Vanderbilt in their SEC opener.

Georgia
Expected Finish: 10-2 (6-2)
Despite the pundits love, Georgia is no guarantee to even win their division, let alone the national title. Georgia has six games against AP Top 25 teams, including trips to LSU and Auburn. The Bulldogs will also be seeking redemption against Tennessee after last year's 35-14 thrashing. The Florida game could go either way, and as I mentioned before, it could be the difference between playing for the SEC title and playing in the Peach Bowl.
Best Case: 12-0 (8-0)
Clearly, the best case for the Bulldogs is that they meet all the expectations placed on them and run the table. It won't be easy.
Worst Case: 7-5 (4-4)
It isn't inconceivable that Georgia could fall to these depths. I only count four of Georgia games as sure wins (Georgia Southern, Central Michigan, Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech). Georgia has to travel to South Carolina (who beat them last year), 15th ranked Arizona State, and the always dangerous Kentucky, which are all winnable games that become much trickier when played on the road.

Florida
Expected Finish: 10-2 (6-2)
Florida has the advantage of a much easier schedule than Georgia, as they only have three games against ranked opponents. While nonconference opponents Hawaii, Miami (FL) and Florida State are big names, they shouldn't challenge the Gators. Other than the Georgia game, the only tests will be traveling to Knoxville to face the Vols and hosting LSU. Of those three games, I expect the Gators to win of them, most likely at Tennessee. A loss to Georgia could ruin any tie-breaking scenarios.
Best Case: 12-0 (8-0) You could argue that any team's "best-case" scenario is a National Title, but I believe it here. With only the three tough games, it isn't out of the question that Florida could run the table. I don't think that they will beat Georgia, but that doesn't mean I think Georgia has a better chance to winning the national title.
Worst Case: 8-4 (5-3) Florida loses all its tough games and then loses to either Miami or Florida State. At this point in time, it's inconceivable for me to believe that Florida would lose to both of these teams. The rest of Florida's schedule is fairly non-threatening.

Tennessee
Expected Finish: 9-3 (5-3)
I may be overly optimistic on the Vols here, especially after losing Erik Ainge, but I feel that the defense will be much improved and the run game should help new starting QB Jonathan Crompton break into a rhythm. Tennessee faces four ranked foes, and I can only expect that they will one of those games. The Knoxville faithful will be furious if Tennessee fails to redeem themselves at home against Alabama after last year's drubbing. Georgia, Auburn and Florida will probably be too much to handle. A nonconference trip to UCLA looks dangerous on the surface, but all reports seem to indicate that the Bruins won't be able to mount much of a threat.
Best Case: 11-1 (7-1) This would put Tennessee in the SEC Conference championship and give them a shot at the national title. I don't see it happening, but they did beat Georgia last year, and if Auburn turns out to be overrated, they could surprise the Tigers. However, I don't see Tennessee beating Tebow and Co., even at home.
Worst Case: 7-5 (4-4) Tennessee loses it four tough games and blows its opener at UCLA. The rest of the non-conference schedule (Wyoming, NIU, UAB) should hardly prove challenging, and the SEC slate of Miss St, South Carolina, Kentucky and Vandy hasn't challenged Tennessee very often in the past.

Kentucky
Expected Finish: 7-5 (4-4)
For a middle team like Kentucky, nearly every SEC game will prove challenging. I also expect the trip to Louisville will be a rude awakening for the post-Woodson Wildcats. Kentucky has the good fortune of facing most of its peers at home (Vandy, Arkansas, South Carolina) so I expect the Wildcats to pull out those victories. Realistically, Kentucky won't challenge its upper crust opponents (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Tennessee).
Best Case: 9-3 (5-3) Kentucky scores a big opening win at Louisville and finishes with an even bigger win at Tennessee, ending its long string of futility against the Volunteers.
Worst Case: 5-7 (2-6) Kentucky struggles without Andre Woodson, loses one or two winnable games at home, and misses a bowl berth.

South Carolina
Expected Finish: 5-7 (2-6)
While South Carolina may have slightly better talent than Kentucky, South Carolina has been cursed with one of the most difficult SEC schedules in recent memory. Not only are three of its four SEC home games likely unwinnable (Georgia, LSU, Tennessee), but the Gamecocks will have to face nearly all of their "peer" schools on the road, including Vanderbilt, Ole Miss and Kentucky. To top it off, South Carolina opens and closes against ACC teams North Carolina State and Clemson. The only sure win I see is when the Gamecocks host tiny Wofford.
Best Case: 9-3 (5-3)
South Carolina beats all of its peer schools and pulls an upset against one of the top dogs. South Carolina caps off a successful season with a win at hated Clemson.
Worst Case: 3-9 (1-7)
Given their schedule, this is much more likely than a 9-3 cinderella season. South Carolina lays an egg at home against NC State and the season just goes downhill from there.

Vanderbilt
Expected Finish: 4-8 (1-7)
Vanderbilt's schedule is much more comparable to Kentucky's than South Carolina's. A few gimme wins should help Vanderbilt build some momentum going into SEC play, but that won't carry them far. Expect Vandy to aaalmost pull off a big upset but fall just short.
Best Case: 6-6 (3-5)
A couple of close wins finally propel Vanderbilt to that elusive bowl appearance. It isn't crazy to believe that, with a little luck, Vanderbilt could start the season 4-0. Miami (OH), Rice, South Carolina and Ole Miss isn't exactly a murderer's row, and with a home game against Duke, maybe this is the year that Vanderbilt finally makes it to a bowl game.
Worst Case: 2-10 (0-8)
Vanderbilt should beat Rice and Duke, but after that nothing is secure. I think Vanderbilt will manage to win at least once SEC game, but if they don't win their SEC opener against South Carolina, they may not get another shot.

Coming soon...SEC West preview