One Shining Moment

Congratulations to Mario Chalmers and the Kansas Jayhawks. In a fitting end to the tournament, Kansas came from behind and knocked off Memphis in overtime to claim the National Championship. Mario Chalmers will forever be remembered as one of the great Kansas heroes. I had the good fortune of watching the game in a crowded BW3’s, and the bar went absolutely crazy went Chalmers hit that shot. Once the game was tied and went into overtime, everyone knew that Kansas was going to win. Similar to the West Virginia-Xavier Sweet 16 game, where West Virginia’s star missed a free throw in the waning seconds that would have won the game and the Mountaineers ending up losing in overtime, the momentum was completely swung in favor of the Jayhawks.

Kansas showed that they were the most complete and balanced team in the tournament. Despite not having a single player named to the Big 12 First Team All-Conference, their collective depth, talent and perseverance enabled Kansas to overcome star-driven teams like Davidson, UNC and Memphis. While I’m happy for Kansas, I do feel a little bad for Memphis. To lose a game on a tough missed shot is one thing, but to let a game slip away after going 1 of 5 on free throws down the stretch…that will stay with those Memphis players for a long time to come. However, the game should be remembered for Kansas’ clutch shots and valiant comeback, rather than Memphis choking.

On a personal side note, the fact that Kansas won made me feel like a bit of an idiot. You may recall that, at the beginning of the tournament, I bemoaned the discovery that I had actually selected UCLA to win the National Championship, rather than Kansas. While I did correctly predict all of the Final Four teams, the UCLA pick ended up costing me a spot in the all-important top two of my pool. Had I merely selected Kansas to win the final (as I intended), I would have finished tied for first. With a forty plus person pool and a $20 “enjoyment” fee, well you can do the math and perhaps understand my pain. I still managed to finish fourth, but that won’t buy me a new flat-screen TV.

Bubble Watch Update

Many of the smaller conferences have wrapped up regular season play by now. The major conference teams have at most two or three games remaining. At this point, more bubble teams seem to be losing rather than winning, so picking the last couple of slots may be more an excercise in deciding who has slid less over the last month. Mid-major teams like Southern Illinois, UAB, and New Mexico could benefit if more marginal 'major conference' teams continue to perform poorly.

The Big 12, A-10, and ACC seem to be struggling at the moment, while the Big East looks like the most dominant conference. Its top five teams are virtual locks, and will likely send a total of eight teams. The SEC and Big Ten are struggling outside of the elite (Tennesee, MSU, Indiana, Wisconsin) and will likely recieve fewer bids then they are historically accustomed to seeing.

Small Conference Leaders (15)
These teams absolutely will not make the tournament unless they win their conference tourney. The current regular season leader is listed for each conference, but you can throw that out the window once you get to single elimination.

America East – MD Baltimore County (RPI: 88)
Atlantic Sun – Belmont (87)
Big Sky – Portland St. (96)
Big South – UNC Asheville (131) Winthrop and UNC Asheville finished the Big South regular season tied for first after UNC Asheville beat Winthrop on the road, with Asheville having the slight RPI edge.
Big West – Cal St. Northridge (103)
Ivy League – Cornell (68)
MEAC – Morgan St (124)
Metro Atlantic – Siena (79)
Northeast – Robert Morris (110) After finishing the season on a 13 game win streak, Robert Morris was finally able to catch and pass Wagner and Sacred Heart in the final regular season standings.
Ohio Valley – Austin Peay (91)
Patriot League – American (101)
Southland – Lamar (133)
Summit League – Oral Roberts (65)
SWAC – Alabama St. (218)
WAC – Boise St. (98)

Small Conference Leaders who actually do have a chance of making the final field even without winning their conference tournament (SCLWADHACOMTFFEWWTCT) (8)
Colonial – VCU (42)
Horizon – Butler (19)
MAC – Kent St . (35)
Missouri Valley – Drake (14)
Mountain West – BYU (25)
Southern - Davidson (44)
Sun Belt – South Alabama (28) Defeating Western Kentucky on the road left South Alabama in sole possession of first place, and they won their next four to clinch the regular season title.
West Coast – Gonzaga (31) The Zags move into first place after beating St. Mary’s fairly handily. However, both teams look likely to make the field.

Mid-Major At-Large (12, 4 Bids)
Probably In:
West Coast – St. Mary’s (32) With two losses in their last three games, St. Mary’s profile is perhaps not quite as strong as they’d like to be completely comfortable going into the conference tourney. Wins over Drake, Oregon, Gonzaga, and Seton Hall may come in handy if they slip.

Better Be Careful:
Mountain West – UNLV (27)
Missouri Valley – Illinois St (34) This team finished on a tear, knocking off Wright State and MVC rivals Creighton and Southern Illinois. They do have a few questionable losses, but they have a strong profile and the solid finish should put them in.
Missouri Valley – Southern Illinois (48) With so many major conference teams trying to play themselves into the NIT, maybe it’s time to give Southern Illinois a look. They did lose their home finale against Illinois State and have a total of 13 losses, but they also played one of the top ten most difficult schedules. They recorded wins over Mississippi State, St. Mary’s, Western Kentucky, and Drake.

Outside Looking In:
Sun Belt – Western Kentucky (49) With no wins over top-100 RPI teams, Western Kentucky will realistically have to win the Sun Belt tournament to make the field, despite a 22-6 record.
Missouri Valley – Creighton (50) This team has a much more consistent profile than Southern Illinois. They had only two losses outside the top 100, but no true marquee win. They beat Oral Roberts in bracket-buster play, and knocked off St. Joe’s in OT early in the season.
Conference USA – UAB (51) May get a look, but with five losses to teams outside of the top 100, the odds are long. They do have wins over Kentucky, Houston, and Cincinnati.
Mountain West – New Mexico (53)
Southland - Stephen F. Austin (61)

Thanks For Playing:
Conference USA - Houston (67) Losing to East Carolina (RPI 252) may have sealed Houston’s fate. They have only one top-100 RPI win (Kentucky), although up until the ECU loss they had only lost to tournament-worthy teams. Houston will have to win the Conference USA tournament. Just making the conference final won’t be enough.
Horizon - Wright State (71) Probably no shot to begin with, but Wright State ended its regular season with three straight losses.

Potential One Seeds (7)
C-USA – Memphis (2)
SEC – Tennessee (1)
Big 12 – Kansas (8)
Big 12 – Texas (5)
Pac-10 – UCLA (9)
ACC – Duke (4)
ACC – North Carolina (3)

A-10 (6, 2 bids)
Definitely In:
Xavier (6)

Better Be Careful:
UMass (38) Unlike most of its A-10 brethren, UMass has actually won a few games lately and is on a four game win streak. They swept Rhode Island and hold wins over Houston and Syracuse. By no means a sure bet, UMass still has a pretty good chance if they can win their final two games and make a decent conference tourney run.

Outside Looking In:
Dayton (36) Having won only four of their last twelve games, Dayton is in big trouble. They must win their final two and probably advance to the conference final to have a chance.
St. Joe’s (52) Other than sweeping UMass, St. Joe’s has done very little. Since beating Villanova, St. Joseph’s has gone 2-4, including two home defeats to mid-tier A-10 teams La Salle and St. Louis.
Rhode Island (55) This team has lost six of its last eight games. Without a true marquee win, Rhode Island may have to win the A-10 tourney to make the final field.

Thanks For Playing:
Temple (80) Not much of a chance to being with, but Temple blew any shot by losing at home to Fordham. Their overall record now stands at 15-12.

Big Ten (5, 4 Bids)
Definitely In:
Wisconsin (11)
Michigan St. (15)
Indiana (16)
Purdue (29)

Outside Looking In:
Ohio State (54) How the (not-so) mighty have fallen. Once a near-lock to make the final 65, Ohio State has lost its last four to fall to 8-8 in conference play. And despite those eight Big Ten wins, only one (Minnesota) has come over a top-100 foe. The Buckeyes can still pull it together with wins against Purdue and Michigan State in its last two games.

SEC (6, 3 bids)
Definitely In:
Vanderbilt (10)

Better Be Careful:
Mississippi State (37) 11-3 in conference play, Mississippi State is certainly benefiting from a down year in the SEC. They lack an impressive non-conference win but haven’t lost to a team outside the RPI top 100.
Arkansas (39) Beating Vanderbilt stopped the Razorback’s recent slide, but they aren’t out of trouble yet. A win at Ole Miss on Tuesday could make their bid a sure thing.

Outside Looking In:
Ole Miss (45)
Kentucky (59) It’s looking more and more like Kentucky is starting to find itself as a team. They may have over-extended themselves early in the season, but hold a 10-3 conference record.
Florida (62) Losing at home to Mississippi State hurts a reeling Florida profile. Their conference record is decent (8-6), but only two of those wins came against top-100 SEC teams. Florida has a chance to improve its profile with Tennessee and Kentucky on the schedule this week.

Big East (11, 8 Bids)
Definitely In:
Georgetown (7)
UConn (13)
Notre Dame (20)
Marquette (18)
Louisville (15)

Probably In:
Pittsburgh (23) Probably not in the same league as the teams listed above, but winning at Syracuse may have given Pitt some separation from the rest of the Big East field.

Better Be Careful:
West Virginia (41)
Syracuse (57)

Outside Looking In:
Villanova (63)
Seton Hall (73)

Big 12 (7, 6 bids)
Probably In:
Oklahoma (30) They don’t have a great conference record (7-7) but they did sweep Baylor and Texas Tech. Their win yesterday against Texas A&M was very much needed. Oklahoma can also fall back on its impressive non-conference wins over Arkansas, Gonzaga, and West Virginia.

Better Be Careful:
Baylor (33)
Oklahoma (34)
Kansas State (43) Suddenly not looking so great, K State has dropped its last four. Kansas State also lacks non-conference heft, with its most notable win coming against Cal. Their next two games (Colorado, Iowa St.) are relatively easy, so a failure in either one would be damaging.
Texas A&M (46) Like Kansas State, Texas A&M has hit a bit of a wall, losing four of its last five to fall to 7-7 in the Big 12. The remaining two games are very tough (at Baylor, Kansas), and a 7-9 conference record might seal their NIT fate. However, they don’t have a terrible loss, and they did beat Ohio State and Oral Roberts in non-conference play.
Texas Tech (47) These guys have to be mentioned in the same breath as Texas A&M and Kansas State now. Their RPI rankings and conference records are almost identical. Coming off of a win over Texas, Texas Tech just might be able to sneak into the final field. With its last two games at Kansas and at home against Baylor, they will be hard-pressed to keep their momentum going.

Outside Looking In:
Oklahoma State (72) Is it too late for the Cowboys? They have won five straight, including wins over Baylor, Texas A&M, and Kansas. They lack a major non-conference win, but could pull to 9-7 in the Big 12 if they can beat Oklahoma at home and Texas on the road in their last two games.
Thanks For Playing:
Missouri (99)

Pac-10 (7, 5 bids)
Definitely In:
Stanford (17)

Probably In:
Washington State (21)

Better Be Careful:
Arizona (22) Sure, they have the number one SOS, but the loss column has grown considerably. They can claim wins against Texas A&M, UNLV, and Houston, as well as a sweep against Washington State. However, their conference record is only 7-8 and two of their three remaining games will be a challenge (UCLA at home, at Oregon).
USC (40) Solid profile with non-conference wins against Oklahoma and Southern Illinois, USC probably just needs to win one of its last two (Stanford, Cal) to be sure of a bid. Will the opening home loss to Mercer (RPI 315) come back to haunt them?
Arizona State (66) Not playing very well as of late, but if they can beat Oregon and Oregon State to finish the season, they will have a 10-8 Pac-10 conference record. They swept Arizona and have wins over Stanford, USC, and an impressive non-conference win over Xavier.

Outside Looking In:
Oregon (60)

Thanks For Playing:
Cal (94) 6-10 conference record says it all.

ACC (9, 3 Bids)
Probably In:
Clemson (24)

Better Be Careful:
Miami (26) One of the few ACC teams trying to play its way into the tournament, not out of it. Non-conference wins over Mississippi State and VCU are looking better and better. Despite the early season ACC slump, Miami could end up at 9-7, with two winnable games coming up this week.
Maryland (51)

Outside Looking In:
Virginia Tech (56)
Florida State (69) No chance in hell right now, but if they win their last two (at UNC, Miami) then maybe they’ll be a marginal candidate.
Wake Forest (84) Since beating Duke, Wake has lost its last three. The home win over BYU is the only win worth mentioning in a pretty soft non-conference schedule. If they win their last two, Wake can get to 8-8 in the ACC, but that might not be enough.

Thanks For Playing:
Georgia Tech (77) Two for their last eight, and the last home loss to Wake Forest was especially damaging. If they run the table, they’ll still only have an 8-8 conference record. Oh, and they currently have a 12-15 record.
NC State (85) Losing seven in a row tends to bring down the tournament profile a bit.
Boston College (112) See above description. Boston College has only won four games in the year 2008.

Last Four In:
Texas Tech
Arizona State
Southern Illinois
Maryland

Last Four Out:
Florida
Ohio State
Virginia Tech
Dayton

Total Bid Allocation:
ACC - 5
Atlantic 10 - 2
Big East - 8
Big Ten - 4
Big 12 - 8
Missouri Valley - 3
Mountain West - 2
Pac 10 - 6
SEC - 4
WCC - 2

Bubble Update

As much as I'd like to continue to do a full write-up on each potential tournament team, that would take way too much time. The real value is in the week-to-week changes, so I'll focus on that. Feel free to refer to my previous post for information on all teams.

With that said, let's get rolling.

Small Conference Leaders (15)
These teams absolutely will not make the tournament unless they win their conference tourney. The current regular season leader is listed for each conference, but you can throw that out the window once you get to single elimination.

America East – MD Baltimore County (RPI: 104)
Atlantic Sun – Belmont (99)
Big Sky – Portland St. (132)
Big South – Winthrop (116) Winthrop moves into first place in the Big South after previous conference leader UNC Asheville dropped its third consecutive game.
Big West – Cal St. Northridge (106)
Ivy League – Cornell (82)
MEAC – Morgan St (162) In a tie atop the standings with Norfolk State. Previous leader Hampton remains one game back. The winner of this conference will certainly be a candidate for the play-in game, along with the winner of the SWAC.
Metro Atlantic – Siena (92) Siena moved into first place in the Metro Atlantic after knocking off previous leader Rider. However, a loss in the following game puts them back into a two-team tie.
Northeast – Wagner (115) Wagner is in a close race, currently tied with Robert Morris and previous conference Sacred Heart a half game back.
Ohio Valley – Austin Peay (108)
Patriot League – American (124) Previous conference leader Lafeyette has now lost four in a row. American actually could be a dangerous tournament team, as they proved with their early season win at Maryland.
Southland – Lamar (135)
Summit League – Oral Roberts (45)
SWAC – Alabama St. (213)
WAC – Boise St. (78) Recently deposed Utah St. is on a two-game losing streak, moving Boise St. into first place in the WAC.

Small Conference Leaders who actually do have a chance of making the final field even without winning their conference tournament (SCLWADHACOMTFFEWWTCT) (8)
Colonial – VCU (65)
Horizon – Butler (19)
MAC – Kent St . (44)
Missouri Valley – Drake (10)
Mountain West – BYU (29)
Southern - Davidson (56) I moved Davidson into this category due to the recent poor performance of several at-large bubble teams. 17-0 is impressive in any conference, and if Davidson finishes undefeated, they will have to warrent consideration. Unfortunately, their best win is over Georgia Southern (89).
Sun Belt – Western Kentucky (50) By default, Western Kentucky moves into first place in the Sun Belt after South Alabama lost on the road at Middle Tennessee. I don't particularly like Western Kentucky's at-large chances right now, given that the highest ranked team they've beaten is Middle Tennessee (134) but crazier things have happened.
West Coast – St. Mary’s (27)

Mid-Major At-Large (12, 3 Bids)
Probably In:
West Coast - Gonzaga (39)

Better Be Careful:
Mountain West – UNLV (32)
Sun Belt – South Alabama (35) The loss at Middle Tennessee really hurts this team. Their next game is at Western Kentucky, where a win would put them back into first place in the conference. Their non-conference losses are nothing to be ashamed of, but it would have been nice if they could have won one more big game to add to their victory over Mississippi State.

Outside Looking In:
Conference USA - Houston (49) Even though they lost at Memphis, Houston has as good a profile as any of these other mid-major teams. They don't have a bad loss, but don't have a great win either, though the home win over Kentucky is decent.
Missouri Valley – Illinois St (53)
Missouri Valley - Southern Illinois (55) After the win over Drake, might as well put them on this list. Home wins over St. Mary's and Western Kentucky are nice, but not enough to overcome its 12 losses, over half of which came against teams that are not going to make the tournament.
Mountain West – New Mexico (54) New Mexico is making a nice run here at the end of the season, and if they can run the table, they will certainly merit discussion. Would not get in today, however.
Southland - Stephen F. Austin (59) With a 17-3 record, including a win at Oklahoma, Stephen F. Austin is an interesting scenario. Not likely to improve their numbers since their remaining opponents have an average RPI of around 200, but with a 22-3 record, it might be hard to turn them down.
Horizon - Wright State (64) Okay, I'm from Dayton, so I have to give these guys some props. They are on a ten game win streak and knocked off Butler earlier this season. With wins in upcoming games at Illinois State and Butler, Wright State could see its name pop up in more at-large discussions.

Thanks For Playing:
MAC – Ohio (62) Last week's losses at Toledo and Kent State have sealed Ohio's fate.
Colonial – George Mason (63) After losing at home, George Mason's marginal profile has absorbed about as much damage as it can. Six losses to 100+ RPI teams won't overcome its early wins against Dayton and Kansas State.
Missouri Valley – Creighton (69) Consecutive conference losses leave Creighton with an 8-7 conference record, which isn't helped by the fact that they only have one win worth mentioning.
Mountain West – San Diego St. (73) Three consecutive losses have put San Diego State in a deep hole. With no quality non-conference wins, it's not going to happen.

Potential One Seeds (7)
C-USA – Memphis (3)
SEC – Tennessee (1)
Big 12 – Kansas (5)
Big 12 – Texas (6) – Wins at home over Kansas and at Baylor move the Longhorns into potential one seed territory.
Pac-10 – UCLA (8)
ACC – Duke (2)
ACC – North Carolina (4)

A-10 (6, 4 bids)
Definitely In:
Xavier (10)

Better Be Careful:
St. Joe’s (43) St. Joseph won its two games this week, but I have to move them down because the overall quality of the A-10 appears to be dipping, and St. Joe's could get caught in a numbers game if they don't seperate themselves.
Rhode Island (25) Having lost two of their last three, Rhode Island is starting to slip, and their lack of a marquee win could cost them come selection time. The win at Syracuse is looking much better now.
Dayton (23)

Outside Looking In:
UMass (38) Since starting 13-4, Massachussets has lost five of its last seven games, including its most recent home loss to Fordham (156). Like Dayton, UMass probably won't end up any better than 8-8 in the A-10.
Temple (60)

Big Ten (5)
Definitely In:
Wisconsin (13)
Michigan St. (14)
Indiana (24) Indiana did lose at home to Wisconsin, but they also beat OSU on the road and crushed Michigan State at home. Barring a collapse, Indiana is in.
Purdue (28) Thanks to impressive wins over Wisconsin and Michigan State, plus their 12-1 conference record, Purdue can start planning its March Madness practices.

Probably In:
Ohio State (36)

SEC (6, 4 bids)
Definitely In:
Vanderbilt (11) What a difference a week can make. While they still haven't proven they can play strong on the road, Vanderbilt just knocked off top competitors Florida and Kentucky to solidify their place in the tournament.

Probably In:
Arkansas (31)

Better Be Careful:
Mississippi State (46) Impressive win over Arkansas gives Mississippi State an 8-2 SEC record, which helps neutralize its lack of a significant non-conference win.
Florida (57)

Outside Looking In:
Ole Miss (48) Wow. After starting 13-0, Ole Miss has gone 3-7 in the SEC, including two losses to Auburn (148). Its wins over Clemson and South Alabama won't bail them out if this mess.
Kentucky (71)

Big East (11, 8 Bids)
Definitely In:
Georgetown (7)
UConn (9)

Probably In:
Notre Dame (26)
Marquette (16)
Louisville (15) – With the win over Georgetown and two following road wins, Louisville looks to solidly be in the tournament.

Better Be Careful:
Pittsburgh (18)
West Virginia (40)
Syracuse (47) After losing at South Florida I was ready to write Syracuse off, but then they turn around and thump Georgetown. They still have a very tough schedule, but right now they would be in.

Outside Looking In:
Villanova (61)
Seton Hall (67) - Not helping their cause with four straight losses, even if they were to top opponents.

Thanks For Playing:
Providence (94) - They have now lost seven of their last eight to drop completely out of the race. They may not even make the Big East tournament at this point.

Big 12 (6, 4 bids)
Definitely In:
Kansas State (30)

Probably In:
Texas A&M (37)

Better Be Careful:
Baylor (42) Now losers of five of their last six, Baylor is treading in dangerous waters right now. Granted, three of the losses were to Texas and Kansas, but still...A win at Oklahoma this Tuesday would really help them out.
Oklahoma (34)

Outside Looking In:
Texas Tech (55)
Missouri (74)

Pac-10 (7, 4 bids)
Definitely In:
Stanford (21)

Probably In:
Arizona (17)
USC (33)
Washington State (22) After a three-game home slide, Washington State has now picked up wins over Oregon and USC to reach 20 wins.

Outside Looking In:
Oregon (52)
Arizona State (75) - Interesting situation here: ASU starts off 14-2, loses its next five, and then wins at Arizona and at home against Stanford. I'd be ready to put them in the tournament, but then they turn around and lose at home to Cal.
Cal (74)

ACC (8, 3 Bids)
Probably In:
Clemson (20)

Better Be Careful:
Maryland (51)
Wake Forest (61) No one else from the ACC seems to want to take the opportunity, so I'll go ahead and give the edge to Wake, despite the sub-par RPI. They can't win on the road, but they have a 6-5 conference record, including an impressive win over Duke. They also beat BYU fairly handily, and don't have a terrible loss. The remaining schedule is tough, so if they do well, they'll deserve to get in; if they don't, they won't.

Outside Looking In:
Miami (41)
NC State (58) Three straight losses leave NC State at 4-7 in the ACC, and the only have one or two more games out of five that they "should win". Not looking good.
Georgia Tech (70)
Boston College (81) – They finally won a game after losing six straight, so why not add them to this list? Plus, they have a better conference record than NC State
Virginia Tech (72)

Last Four In:
Dayton
Wake Forest
Florida
South Alabama

Last Four Out:
Arizona State
Miami
Houston
Stephen F. Austin

The way I see it, these eight teams are on very tenuous ground right now: UNLV, South Alabama, Dayton, Rhode Island, Florida, Syracuse, Baylor, and Wake Forest. Oklahoma, West Virginia, Mississippi State and St Joe’s are also somewhat marginal, but they are a step above the first bunch. The teams ranked ahead of these (“Probably In”) will almost certainly get in. In my opinion, the vast majority of teams from the major conferences that are listed in the “Outside Looking In” category really do not have profiles that warrant strong consideration. One characteristic that most of them share is a sub-.500 conference record. My memory may be hazy, but it seems very rare for any team to get into the tournament with a sub-.500 conference record. Also, I actually had a difficult time justifying letting in a couple of the teams that I did select, including Wake Forest and Dayton. Assuming a few upsets (and unexpected auto bids) in conference tournaments, the at-large bid pool will shrink, squeezing out some of these marginal teams.

Of the teams I haven’t listed as receiving bids, Kentucky, Arizona State and Villanova have the most potential to make a season-ending run to claim one of the last spots, given their decent conference records (at least relative to their bubble competitors) and remaining chances to score some big wins.