Well, for starters, maybe the ACC isn't quite the juggernaut that everyone thought it was. Four of the conference's seven teams went down, and all four were upset by lower seeded teams. Wake Forest was blown out by 13-seed Cleveland State, 7-seeds Clemson and Boston College were upset by Michigan and USC (respectively) and Florida State fell to Wisconsin in overtime. Only Maryland's mild upset of Cal saved the conference further embarassment.
Oh, and for what it's worth, I called the USC and Wisconsin upsets. Yee-aahhhh!!!
I watched the thrilling overtime finishes between both Ohio State-Siena (2OT!) and USC-Wisconsin last night, and I have to admit it was one of the most exciting sequences I have seen in some time. Siena and Wisconsin both hit timely three pointers to stay alive, and their opponents fell just short at the buzzer. As an OSU-hater, I especially enjoyed seeing Siena take down the Buckeyes.
The Mountain West has to be disappointed to see both of their teams crash out against lower-seeded teams. Earlier in the season, there was talk that the conference might earn three or even four bids. The poor showing shouldn't (but probably will) affect perception of the league next season.
And what about Dayton? Many experts were predicting West Virginia as a sleeper to reach at least the Sweet 16, so it's a great win for the Flyers. Kansas will be a tough matchup for them, but Dayton is playing with a lot of confidence right now.
Overall, though, the tournament is basically going according to plan. Wake Forest was the only team seeded fourth or higher that lost (although three 5 seeds lost) and the top contenders are all still alive. The second round tends to provide more of these types of upsets.
Of the one seeds, I think Pitt has the toughest matchup. Oklahoma State can run the floor and has beaten several top teams. LSU is a bit of enigma, but I don't see them hanging with North Carolina. Connecticut and Louisville should also be able to handle Texas A&M and Siena, although I've said before that Louisville makes me a little nervous.
Among the two seeds, I've already gone on record saying I expect Michigan State to lose to USC. Oklahoma could also be susceptible to an upset, but Michigan will need its threes to fall. Memphis and Duke would seem to be a little more safe. Memphis opponent Maryland has the capability of winning tough games, but they are not consistent. We've already seen the middle of the ACC exposed as perhaps a bit overrated, so I expect Memphis to win. Duke has been a prime candidate as of late for earlier-than-expected exits, but I am not impressed at all with Texas.
Well, the games start in less than an hour, so enjoy! Game number one is UCLA-Villanova,and once again I'm expecting another upset there.
Saturday, March 21, 2009
Thursday, March 19, 2009
Last Minute Tournament Preview
OK, so maybe you had been expecting more “bubble” updates as the conference tournaments were winding down, so sorry about that. For what it’s worth, I think the committee did a pretty good job. Also, a number of surprise tourney berths (Mississippi State, Temple, and Cleveland State) eliminated at-large spots and probably made the committee’s job a little bit easier.
From a seed-centric perspective, it appears that Arizona and Wisconsin were the last two teams to make the tournament (as 12 seeds) with Dayton coming as the lone at-large 11 seed. Michigan, Minnesota, and Maryland all clocked in as 10 seeds. Nine seeds Tennessee, Butler, and Texas A&M were never really in any doubt, so realistically speaking, only about six seeds were up for grabs going into the final selection process.
I don’t really have any huge issues with the seeds themselves, but I will point a few teams that seem to stick out a little bit. For example, I’m a little surprised that Boston College earned a seven seed. I know they beat Duke and won at UNC, but they also lost at home to Harvard and only went 9-7 in conference, including 5-5 in their last ten games. Xavier also seems to be seeded a little high. They had two very impressive wins back in November (Missouri, Memphis) but also struggled down the stretch (going 5-5 with two losses to RPI 100+ teams), so a four seed seems a little high. Maybe I’m a little biased, but I think Tennessee’s nine seed is a little low. The weak SEC may have brought down their numbers a little bit but they did play against the third ranked schedule in the country and advanced to the SEC title game.
For posterity’s sake, I’ll mention my bracket picks, although I didn’t put an incredible amount of thought into them. Unless otherwise noted, I went with the chalk.
First Round
Arizona over Utah – Utah may be ranked in the RPI top ten, but they won only one road game against an RPI top 100 team (Wyoming). They did win the Mountain West tourney, while Arizona is coming off a disappointing quarterfinal exit. Arizona has also lost five of their last six, so I can’t come up with any rational reasons for this pick, except that I think Utah is overrated and Arizona will want to justify their inclusion as likely the last at-large selection.
USC over Boston College – Unlike Arizona, USC is playing well right now, having just won the Pac-10 tourney. As I mentioned above, I think Boston College was seeded too generously and I like this game for an upset.
Tennessee over Oklahoma State – I guess a nine over an eight is upset, but as a Vols fan, I have to pick them to win at least one game.
Wisconsin over Florida State – My usual thought process centers around the fact that the Big Ten sucks, but hey, Northwestern was able to beat Florida State, so why not Wisconsin? Wisconsin also won at Virginia Tech, which proves they can beat ACC talent.
Wow, a whopping four upset picks for the first round. Let’s not get carried away here…
Second Round
USC over Michigan State – First of all, I’m in a pool with a bunch of people from Michigan, so this is huge chance for me to separate myself from them. But more importantly, Michigan State really isn’t all that good. I may be biased because one of the only games I saw them play was a 98-63 blowout at the hands of UNC, but their disappointing show in the Big Ten tourney may be a sign of things to come.
Wisconsin over Xavier – What the hell is wrong with me? Picking one of the last at-large teams to advance to the Sweet 16? Well, I do feel that Xavier is over-seeded and they haven’t been able to win on the road, at least lately. This is more a pick against Xavier than for Wisconsin. If Florida State beats Wisconsin, I would probably pick them over Xavier as well.
UCLA over Villanova – Many people are picking UCLA to get upset in the first round by VCU, so this is my “opposite pick” that sometimes seems to work in Vegas. Unfortunately, Villanova will basically be playing at home, so this may be a reach. UCLA has Final Four experience, so I don’t see them going down easily. Call me crazy.
Arizona State over Syracuse – Throw rationale out the window. I just think Syracuse’s luck has run out. That 6 OT win over UConn must have used up a lot of karma. Meanwhile, Arizona State has kind of slipped in under the radar, although did play well in the Pac-10 tourney before losing in the title game to USC.
Again, I don’t know what is wrong with me. I have FOUR Pac-10 teams in the Sweet 16. I guess Obama and I are not on the same page – he has every Pac-10 team losing in the second round (or earlier). I think my picks are more a factor of good matchups than an actual statement on the strength of the conference.
Sweet 16
Sorry, no upsets here. I do have Kansas advancing to the Elite Eight (in place of Michigan State/USC) but all my other one and two seeds held serve. Oh, and that also means all the Pac-10 teams are gone now.
Elite Eight
Memphis over Connecticut – Memphis never seems to get any love, despite the fact they have been to three straight Elite Eights. They are hard team to gauge, but it’s also hard to ignore how they dominated the Conference USA tournament. Connecticut has a terrific resume and will probably be rested after bowing out a little earlier than expected in the Big East tourney. Regardless, this should be a great game and obviously it could go either way, but I like Memphis to come out on top.
Final Four
Memphis over Louisville
UNC over Pitt
At this point we’re just splitting hairs. Louisville can be inconsistent (see: 90-57 loss at Notre Dame) but they are peaking at the right now. UNC’s fortunes will probably depend on Ty Lawson. If he is not 100%, then Pitt would be my pick.
Champion
UNC - Unless they lose to Pitt...
From a seed-centric perspective, it appears that Arizona and Wisconsin were the last two teams to make the tournament (as 12 seeds) with Dayton coming as the lone at-large 11 seed. Michigan, Minnesota, and Maryland all clocked in as 10 seeds. Nine seeds Tennessee, Butler, and Texas A&M were never really in any doubt, so realistically speaking, only about six seeds were up for grabs going into the final selection process.
I don’t really have any huge issues with the seeds themselves, but I will point a few teams that seem to stick out a little bit. For example, I’m a little surprised that Boston College earned a seven seed. I know they beat Duke and won at UNC, but they also lost at home to Harvard and only went 9-7 in conference, including 5-5 in their last ten games. Xavier also seems to be seeded a little high. They had two very impressive wins back in November (Missouri, Memphis) but also struggled down the stretch (going 5-5 with two losses to RPI 100+ teams), so a four seed seems a little high. Maybe I’m a little biased, but I think Tennessee’s nine seed is a little low. The weak SEC may have brought down their numbers a little bit but they did play against the third ranked schedule in the country and advanced to the SEC title game.
For posterity’s sake, I’ll mention my bracket picks, although I didn’t put an incredible amount of thought into them. Unless otherwise noted, I went with the chalk.
First Round
Arizona over Utah – Utah may be ranked in the RPI top ten, but they won only one road game against an RPI top 100 team (Wyoming). They did win the Mountain West tourney, while Arizona is coming off a disappointing quarterfinal exit. Arizona has also lost five of their last six, so I can’t come up with any rational reasons for this pick, except that I think Utah is overrated and Arizona will want to justify their inclusion as likely the last at-large selection.
USC over Boston College – Unlike Arizona, USC is playing well right now, having just won the Pac-10 tourney. As I mentioned above, I think Boston College was seeded too generously and I like this game for an upset.
Tennessee over Oklahoma State – I guess a nine over an eight is upset, but as a Vols fan, I have to pick them to win at least one game.
Wisconsin over Florida State – My usual thought process centers around the fact that the Big Ten sucks, but hey, Northwestern was able to beat Florida State, so why not Wisconsin? Wisconsin also won at Virginia Tech, which proves they can beat ACC talent.
Wow, a whopping four upset picks for the first round. Let’s not get carried away here…
Second Round
USC over Michigan State – First of all, I’m in a pool with a bunch of people from Michigan, so this is huge chance for me to separate myself from them. But more importantly, Michigan State really isn’t all that good. I may be biased because one of the only games I saw them play was a 98-63 blowout at the hands of UNC, but their disappointing show in the Big Ten tourney may be a sign of things to come.
Wisconsin over Xavier – What the hell is wrong with me? Picking one of the last at-large teams to advance to the Sweet 16? Well, I do feel that Xavier is over-seeded and they haven’t been able to win on the road, at least lately. This is more a pick against Xavier than for Wisconsin. If Florida State beats Wisconsin, I would probably pick them over Xavier as well.
UCLA over Villanova – Many people are picking UCLA to get upset in the first round by VCU, so this is my “opposite pick” that sometimes seems to work in Vegas. Unfortunately, Villanova will basically be playing at home, so this may be a reach. UCLA has Final Four experience, so I don’t see them going down easily. Call me crazy.
Arizona State over Syracuse – Throw rationale out the window. I just think Syracuse’s luck has run out. That 6 OT win over UConn must have used up a lot of karma. Meanwhile, Arizona State has kind of slipped in under the radar, although did play well in the Pac-10 tourney before losing in the title game to USC.
Again, I don’t know what is wrong with me. I have FOUR Pac-10 teams in the Sweet 16. I guess Obama and I are not on the same page – he has every Pac-10 team losing in the second round (or earlier). I think my picks are more a factor of good matchups than an actual statement on the strength of the conference.
Sweet 16
Sorry, no upsets here. I do have Kansas advancing to the Elite Eight (in place of Michigan State/USC) but all my other one and two seeds held serve. Oh, and that also means all the Pac-10 teams are gone now.
Elite Eight
Memphis over Connecticut – Memphis never seems to get any love, despite the fact they have been to three straight Elite Eights. They are hard team to gauge, but it’s also hard to ignore how they dominated the Conference USA tournament. Connecticut has a terrific resume and will probably be rested after bowing out a little earlier than expected in the Big East tourney. Regardless, this should be a great game and obviously it could go either way, but I like Memphis to come out on top.
Final Four
Memphis over Louisville
UNC over Pitt
At this point we’re just splitting hairs. Louisville can be inconsistent (see: 90-57 loss at Notre Dame) but they are peaking at the right now. UNC’s fortunes will probably depend on Ty Lawson. If he is not 100%, then Pitt would be my pick.
Champion
UNC - Unless they lose to Pitt...
Monday, February 23, 2009
Bubble Watch - Weekend Update
After a weekend full of exciting games, several teams helped their tournament causes, while a few others shot themselves in the foot.
Time is starting to run and out, and desperation may set in for a few teams listed below.
No Longer a Lock
Gonzaga – Sure, they’ve only lost once in 2009, but their RPI continues to slip thanks to a weak conference schedule. They have probably saved up enough goodwill from previous tournaments, but this clearly isn’t one of Gonzaga’s better teams in recent memory. Their schedule is easy enough that they shouldn’t lose until possibly the WCC championship, but a loss before then would be very bad.
Ohio State – OSU has fallen out of the RPI top 40 (43) and into legitimate bubble territory. With a 7-7 conference record, Ohio State will need to win at least two of its last four games. After losing their last three games, the Buckeyes are rapidly losing ground in the Big Ten. Ohio State hosts Penn State tomorrow night in what will be a big game for both teams.
Georgetown – We already knew the Hoyas were in trouble, despite a lofty RPI, but now that RPI has fallen all the way to 45. Worse, they are 5-9 in the Big East, have lost eight of their last ten, and just missed a chance for a big home win against Marquette. Georgetown hosts Louisville today and this game could be considered a must-win game. If they lose, their next game (at Louisville) most definitely becomes a ‘must-win’ game, but even that may not be enough.
South Carolina – In January, South Carolina looked like it might be a rising squad in the SEC, but lately they have been just as inconsistent as the rest of the bunch and their RPI has slipped to 44. With an 8-4 SEC record, South Carolina may be able to absorb home losses to Tennessee and Kentucky over the next couple of weeks, but a win in one of those two games would probably punch their ticket.
Moving Up
Texas – After knocking off Oklahoma this past weekend, Texas might have just sealed their bid. With an RPI at 35, Texas can probably afford to split their last four games and still feel relatively comfortable.
Texas A&M – Having just beat Texas themselves, A&M gets a bit of a secondary bump from Texas’ win over Oklahoma. With an RPI of 39 and 5-7 conference record, Texas A&M certainly can’t feel too comfortable right now, but their next three games are manageable and they finish with an important home date against Missouri.
LSU – After moving into the RPI top 40, LSU is almost assured of an NCAA bid. Even if they lose their last four games, LSU would still have an 11-5 SEC record.
Creighton – This team jumped about 10 RPI spots after knocking off George Mason in Bracket Busters. With many other bubble teams struggling, Creighton has to be considered a dark horse candidate to sneak into the tournament. The regular season finale against fellow bubble team Illinois St. looms large.
St. Mary’s – Another team that benefited from Bracket Busters, St. Mary’s profile certainly looks a little better after beating Utah State.
Maryland – Maryland got one of the big wins (UNC) they needed, but they will probably need another one before all is said and done. With Duke and Wake Forest still on the schedule, it just might be possible.
Penn State – A huge week for the Nittany Lions (wins over Minnesota, @ Illinois) leaves Penn State at 8-6 in the Big Ten. They travel to now-struggling Ohio State tomorrow and a win will inch Penn State even closer to that elusive bid. Their RPI (61) and non-conference schedule are still weak, but a few more conference wins will improve their profile.
Ole Miss – Don’t look now, but Ole Miss has won five of it last seven (including wins over Kentucky and Tennessee) so perhaps it’s time to give the Rebels a cursory glance. Their RPI has nudged up to 65, and with a 6-6 conference record, they aren’t completely dead. They probably need to win their last four games to have a decent chance, though.
Moving Down
USC – They missed a chance after losing at home to Washington, so they really need a result out of their road trip to Cal later this week. Their other three games won’t help their profile, but can definitely hurt them.
Davidson – After getting demolished by Butler, Davidson has run out of chances to improve their profile. Another loss would be devastating, and anything less than a conference championship may not be enough at this point.
Virginia Tech – Sinking like a rock right now, Virginia Tech can’t catch a break. They have lost three straight and finish with four games against the ACC’s top four teams. They absolutely need to win two of those games to get back into the discussion.
Providence – After losing at home to Notre Dame, it’s probably over for Providence. Their RPI has sunk to 76 and they’ve lost five of their last seven. They have two more chances to record big wins (Pitt, @Villanova) but it still might not be enough.
Time is starting to run and out, and desperation may set in for a few teams listed below.
No Longer a Lock
Gonzaga – Sure, they’ve only lost once in 2009, but their RPI continues to slip thanks to a weak conference schedule. They have probably saved up enough goodwill from previous tournaments, but this clearly isn’t one of Gonzaga’s better teams in recent memory. Their schedule is easy enough that they shouldn’t lose until possibly the WCC championship, but a loss before then would be very bad.
Ohio State – OSU has fallen out of the RPI top 40 (43) and into legitimate bubble territory. With a 7-7 conference record, Ohio State will need to win at least two of its last four games. After losing their last three games, the Buckeyes are rapidly losing ground in the Big Ten. Ohio State hosts Penn State tomorrow night in what will be a big game for both teams.
Georgetown – We already knew the Hoyas were in trouble, despite a lofty RPI, but now that RPI has fallen all the way to 45. Worse, they are 5-9 in the Big East, have lost eight of their last ten, and just missed a chance for a big home win against Marquette. Georgetown hosts Louisville today and this game could be considered a must-win game. If they lose, their next game (at Louisville) most definitely becomes a ‘must-win’ game, but even that may not be enough.
South Carolina – In January, South Carolina looked like it might be a rising squad in the SEC, but lately they have been just as inconsistent as the rest of the bunch and their RPI has slipped to 44. With an 8-4 SEC record, South Carolina may be able to absorb home losses to Tennessee and Kentucky over the next couple of weeks, but a win in one of those two games would probably punch their ticket.
Moving Up
Texas – After knocking off Oklahoma this past weekend, Texas might have just sealed their bid. With an RPI at 35, Texas can probably afford to split their last four games and still feel relatively comfortable.
Texas A&M – Having just beat Texas themselves, A&M gets a bit of a secondary bump from Texas’ win over Oklahoma. With an RPI of 39 and 5-7 conference record, Texas A&M certainly can’t feel too comfortable right now, but their next three games are manageable and they finish with an important home date against Missouri.
LSU – After moving into the RPI top 40, LSU is almost assured of an NCAA bid. Even if they lose their last four games, LSU would still have an 11-5 SEC record.
Creighton – This team jumped about 10 RPI spots after knocking off George Mason in Bracket Busters. With many other bubble teams struggling, Creighton has to be considered a dark horse candidate to sneak into the tournament. The regular season finale against fellow bubble team Illinois St. looms large.
St. Mary’s – Another team that benefited from Bracket Busters, St. Mary’s profile certainly looks a little better after beating Utah State.
Maryland – Maryland got one of the big wins (UNC) they needed, but they will probably need another one before all is said and done. With Duke and Wake Forest still on the schedule, it just might be possible.
Penn State – A huge week for the Nittany Lions (wins over Minnesota, @ Illinois) leaves Penn State at 8-6 in the Big Ten. They travel to now-struggling Ohio State tomorrow and a win will inch Penn State even closer to that elusive bid. Their RPI (61) and non-conference schedule are still weak, but a few more conference wins will improve their profile.
Ole Miss – Don’t look now, but Ole Miss has won five of it last seven (including wins over Kentucky and Tennessee) so perhaps it’s time to give the Rebels a cursory glance. Their RPI has nudged up to 65, and with a 6-6 conference record, they aren’t completely dead. They probably need to win their last four games to have a decent chance, though.
Moving Down
USC – They missed a chance after losing at home to Washington, so they really need a result out of their road trip to Cal later this week. Their other three games won’t help their profile, but can definitely hurt them.
Davidson – After getting demolished by Butler, Davidson has run out of chances to improve their profile. Another loss would be devastating, and anything less than a conference championship may not be enough at this point.
Virginia Tech – Sinking like a rock right now, Virginia Tech can’t catch a break. They have lost three straight and finish with four games against the ACC’s top four teams. They absolutely need to win two of those games to get back into the discussion.
Providence – After losing at home to Notre Dame, it’s probably over for Providence. Their RPI has sunk to 76 and they’ve lost five of their last seven. They have two more chances to record big wins (Pitt, @Villanova) but it still might not be enough.
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
Bubble Watch
Everyone knows that the unwritten law of NCAA tournament selection is that nearly every “BCS” conference team with greater than a .500 conference record will make it to the Big Dance. Occasionally, a team will sneak in at under .500 if at has some quality out-of-conference wins or an especially brutal schedule.
Some empirical data also suggests that nearly every BCS team with an RPI of 40 or better will be selected, and that every top 30 non-BCS team will be selected. Certainly than have been a few exceptions here and there, but I’ll hold that rule for simplification.
Following these basic rules, the following teams would advance:
ACC – UNC, Duke, Clemson, Wake Forest, Florida State
Big Ten – Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Minnesota
Big East – Pitt, Connecticut, Villanova, West Virginia, Louisville, Syracuse, Marquette, Georgetown
Big 12 – Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma State
Pac 10 – Washington, Cal, Arizona State, UCLA
SEC – Tennessee, South Carolina
Mountain West – Utah
Atlantic 10 – Xavier, Dayton
Conference USA – Memphis
Horizon – Butler
West Coast – Gonzaga
Metro Atlantic – Siena
For those of you keeping track, twelve conferences are represented above. For argument’s sake, let’s assume that all twelve auto bids for these conferences come from the teams already listed. The above list includes 37 teams, so reducing that number by 12 means 25 at-large bids are already more or less accounted for.
Given that there are 31 auto bids, this also means that 19 bids will be given to teams that wouldn’t qualify via the above requirements. Adding the 36 teams in the first list to the 19 other auto bids gives a total of 55, which means that only ten bids are truly up for grabs.
Another empirical observation of mine is that no team outside of the RPI top 65 will receive a bid. Air Force did get a bid in 2004 with an RPI of 70, but again, for argument’s sake, let’s cap it at 65.
Basically, this means that there are approximately 29 schools fighting for the last ten berths. Of course, this assumes that teams currently in the RPI top 40 will stay there, and we all know that is not going to happen. Before taking a look at some of these bubble schools, I’d like to point out a couple of teams in the ‘safe’ list that might not be so safe.
Siena (29) – Siena is on the very edge of safety for a non-BCS school. They won’t have much of a chance to improve their RPI and they lack an RPI top 50 win. One more loss might just nudge them out of the RPI top 30.
Oklahoma State (37) – OSU has a relatively strong RPI, but this is more due to a strong schedule than recording solid wins. Oklahoma State is 4-6 in the Big 12 and is 2-8 against RPI top 50 schools, with their best win coming against fellow bubble-mate Siena. OSU should probably win five of its last six games to maintain this RPI (and a plus .500 conference record) but that will mean beating either Texas at home or Oklahoma on the road.
Georgetown (39) – Like Oklahoma State, Georgetown’s RPI is propped up by a killer schedule, although to their credit they do have some terrific wins (Memphis, @Conn, Syracuse). However, they have lost seven of their last eight and still have to play Marquette, Louisville, and Villanova. Georgetown will probably need to win two of those games to have a solid chance.
And on to the bubble teams!
Utah State (33) – Impressive record (23-2) but they have only three victories against RPI top 100 schools. Utah State will need to win at St. Mary’s (Bracket Busters) because their other four remaining opponents have an average RPI of over 200. Anything less than a tourney championship will probably leave them out in the cold.
Temple (34) – Surprisingly high RPI for a 15-9 team with only one RPI top 50 win. Temple does have a 7-3 conference record in the tough A-10. With a relatively easy remaining schedule, Temple has a chance to run the table if they can win at Dayton. If Temple can’t knock off Dayton, they will need a deep tourney run.
BYU (35) – 18-5 (7-3) with no bad losses, but no great wins either. They do have a neutral court win over Utah State. Their remaining schedule is tough, with dates against Mountain West rivals UNLV, San Diego State, and Utah. All four of those teams are in the hunt, so that three game stretch will go a long way in determining who advances.
UAB (39) – With only two RPI top 100 wins, I’m somewhat surprised to see UAB ranked this high, especially with a 17-8 record. The early season win at Arizona looks good and none of their losses is particularly damaging, but UAB may regret not winning one of its several close losses against RPI top 25 teams (Oklahoma, Butler, Memphis). If UAB can knock off Memphis at home, they will get a look, but otherwise I don’t see it happening.
LSU (41) – LSU is a near lock at this point with a 9-1 SEC record, including wins over Tennessee and South Carolina. They can probably afford a slip-up or two, especially if they manage to beat Florida at home or Kentucky on the road. The only yellow flag is their awful, awful non-conference schedule.
Arizona (42) – Winners of seven straight, Arizona is playing well at the right time. Probably safe, but a win at Arizona State or Washington would probably seal the deal. Arizona State currently has an 8-5 conference record and should end up with at least ten conference wins.
USC (43) – Not quite as strong a profile as Arizona, USC has yet to record any significant road wins. Their only remaining chance is at Cal. A home win over Washington this weekend would also enhance their profile, as they currently maintain a 6-6 conference record.
Texas (44) – In a bit of a tailspin at the moment. Texas has non-conference wins over Villanova and Wisconsin but have lost four of their last six. Texas will need to win one of these three games to be confident of a bid: Oklahoma, @Ok St, @Kansas.
San Diego State (45) – Very similar to BYU. Remaining home games against BYU and UNLV could improve their profile. San Diego State missed chances to record non-conference wins against Arizona and St. Mary’s.
Florida (46) – Fairly impressive record at 19-6, but other than an early season win over Washington, the Gators don’t have much to brag about. After blowing a game against previously SEC-winless Georgia, Florida will need to win at least two of these three: @LSU, Tennessee, Kentucky.
Texas A&M (47) – Staying alive after yesterday’s win over Texas, the Aggies have a very realistic chance of reaching .500 in the Big 12. Currently at 4-7, the Aggies only face one more team with a winning conference record (out of five). If Texas A&M can’t defeat Nebraska on the road, they will absolutely have to beat Missouri at home in their regular season finale.
Cincinnati (48) – Swept Georgetown and also have wins over fellow bubble teams UAB and UNLV. Their next three games (Louisville, West Virginia, @Syracuse) are brutal and Cincinnati will probably need to win two of those games to boost their profile.
Miami (49) – Miami has faced a tough schedule and notched a few notable wins (at Kentucky, Florida State, Wake Forest) but they still sit at 4-7 in the ACC. A road win at Florida State would then lead into a manageable four game stretch that could leave them at 9-7. Anything less, however, might not be enough, other than an extended ACC tourney run.
Davidson (50) – Only a win against West Virginia keeps their profile from looking completely blank. Their recent home loss to Charleston (120) hurts, as well as their remaining weak conference schedule, but a Bracket Busters win at home over Butler may push them into safer territory. Also, they may get the benefit of the doubt after last year’s performance.
Virginia Tech (51) – Solid ACC record (6-4) but unfortunately five of their last six games are against RPI top 20 teams. A couple of wins from that group (Florida State, @Clemson, Duke, UNC, @FSU) are essentially a requirement. Virginia Tech already holds solid road wins over Wake Forest and Miami.
Boston College (52) – Wins over Duke and UNC help mask ugly losses to Harvard and Saint Louis. A win in either of their next two games (@ Miami, Florida State) would help tremendously.
Michigan (53) – Still alive after beating Northwestern on the road, Michigan needs to win three of its last five just to get to .500 in the Big Ten. No easy task considering they have two against Minnesota, host Purdue and travel to Wisconsin. Even the one ‘gimmie’ (at Iowa) is no walk in the park. In short, Michigan is up against the wall right now. Wins over Duke and UCLA may come in handy if Michigan can win a few more conference games.
Baylor (54) – Like Michigan, Baylor has struggled in conference, but unlike Michigan, they don’t have great non-conference wins to fall back on, although Arizona State and Providence are both decent wins. At 4-7 in the Big 12, Baylor has to win four of five to get to 8-8. Road trips to Oklahoma State and Texas will probably prevent that from happening.
UNLV (55) – See BYU and San Diego State. They do have an ace in the hole with a road win at Louisville, but will need to score a couple of wins against the trio of Utah, BYU, and San Diego State to separate themselves from the pack.
Creighton (56) – Not likely to get any love with a home win over Dayton as the only decent accomplishment on their profile. If they can run the table, including George Mason in Bracket Busters and MVC rival Illinois State, Creighton might just get a look if they can get to their tourney championship game.
George Mason (57) – No clue how they have an RPI in range of Creighton’s. With five losses to RPI sub-100 teams (and two to RPI sub-200 teams), George Mason should focus on winning their conference tournament.
Illinois State (58) – Significantly weaker profile than Creighton, their RPI might improve with three relatively tough games (@Niagara, Northern Iowa, @Creighton) remaining. Even winning those three might not be enough if they don’t get to their conference title game.
St. Mary’s (59) – As has been well publicized, St. Mary’s has struggled without their injured star, losing four of their last six. A home win over Utah State will look good, but their fate probably rests on the health of Patty Mills.
Maryland (60) – Hanging around in the ACC at 5-5, Maryland faces the four top teams (@Clemson, UNC, Duke, Wake) in their last six games. Maryland will probably need to win two of them to get a solid look.
Kentucky (61) – Hard to envision a tournament without Kentucky, but the Wildcats will have to be careful. Four of their last six are tricky (Tennessee, @South Carolina, LSU, @Florida) and they would do well to split those games.
Niagara (62) – Not bloody likely.
Rhode Island (63) – No signature wins, but if they can run the table they will end up at 12-4 in the A-10. Only Dayton (and maybe @ Duquesne) should present a problem. If that happens, then we’ll talk.
Nebraska (64) – Will need to win four of their last six, including two (maybe three) from this group (@Kansas, Texas A&M, @ Kansas State, @Baylor) to get back into the conversation.
Western Kentucky (65) – Early season win over Louisville is all that’s keeping them alive. Even if they run the table, their weak remaining schedule will drag down their RPI.
Bonus teams!
Providence (69) – No bad losses and some good wins (Syracuse, swept Cincinnati) give Providence a little bit of leeway. Remaining schedule includes @Louisville, Notre Dame, Pitt, @Villanova. Two wins from that group could leave Providence at 11-5 in the Big East, which should be good enough for the Dance.
Penn State (71) – Terrible non-conference schedule holds them back, but if they can win one of their next two (@Illinois, @OSU) Penn State’s stock should increase dramatically.
Notre Dame (74) – Sigh. They need to win four of six to get to .500 in the Big East. That means winning two from this group: @West Virginia, @Providence, @Connecticut, Villanova. I don’t see it happening, but they still have a chance.
There you have it. If I had to pick ten from that group, I’d go with LSU, Arizona, Texas, BYU, Florida, Kentucky, Boston College, UNLV, Temple, and Utah State.
Some empirical data also suggests that nearly every BCS team with an RPI of 40 or better will be selected, and that every top 30 non-BCS team will be selected. Certainly than have been a few exceptions here and there, but I’ll hold that rule for simplification.
Following these basic rules, the following teams would advance:
ACC – UNC, Duke, Clemson, Wake Forest, Florida State
Big Ten – Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Minnesota
Big East – Pitt, Connecticut, Villanova, West Virginia, Louisville, Syracuse, Marquette, Georgetown
Big 12 – Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma State
Pac 10 – Washington, Cal, Arizona State, UCLA
SEC – Tennessee, South Carolina
Mountain West – Utah
Atlantic 10 – Xavier, Dayton
Conference USA – Memphis
Horizon – Butler
West Coast – Gonzaga
Metro Atlantic – Siena
For those of you keeping track, twelve conferences are represented above. For argument’s sake, let’s assume that all twelve auto bids for these conferences come from the teams already listed. The above list includes 37 teams, so reducing that number by 12 means 25 at-large bids are already more or less accounted for.
Given that there are 31 auto bids, this also means that 19 bids will be given to teams that wouldn’t qualify via the above requirements. Adding the 36 teams in the first list to the 19 other auto bids gives a total of 55, which means that only ten bids are truly up for grabs.
Another empirical observation of mine is that no team outside of the RPI top 65 will receive a bid. Air Force did get a bid in 2004 with an RPI of 70, but again, for argument’s sake, let’s cap it at 65.
Basically, this means that there are approximately 29 schools fighting for the last ten berths. Of course, this assumes that teams currently in the RPI top 40 will stay there, and we all know that is not going to happen. Before taking a look at some of these bubble schools, I’d like to point out a couple of teams in the ‘safe’ list that might not be so safe.
Siena (29) – Siena is on the very edge of safety for a non-BCS school. They won’t have much of a chance to improve their RPI and they lack an RPI top 50 win. One more loss might just nudge them out of the RPI top 30.
Oklahoma State (37) – OSU has a relatively strong RPI, but this is more due to a strong schedule than recording solid wins. Oklahoma State is 4-6 in the Big 12 and is 2-8 against RPI top 50 schools, with their best win coming against fellow bubble-mate Siena. OSU should probably win five of its last six games to maintain this RPI (and a plus .500 conference record) but that will mean beating either Texas at home or Oklahoma on the road.
Georgetown (39) – Like Oklahoma State, Georgetown’s RPI is propped up by a killer schedule, although to their credit they do have some terrific wins (Memphis, @Conn, Syracuse). However, they have lost seven of their last eight and still have to play Marquette, Louisville, and Villanova. Georgetown will probably need to win two of those games to have a solid chance.
And on to the bubble teams!
Utah State (33) – Impressive record (23-2) but they have only three victories against RPI top 100 schools. Utah State will need to win at St. Mary’s (Bracket Busters) because their other four remaining opponents have an average RPI of over 200. Anything less than a tourney championship will probably leave them out in the cold.
Temple (34) – Surprisingly high RPI for a 15-9 team with only one RPI top 50 win. Temple does have a 7-3 conference record in the tough A-10. With a relatively easy remaining schedule, Temple has a chance to run the table if they can win at Dayton. If Temple can’t knock off Dayton, they will need a deep tourney run.
BYU (35) – 18-5 (7-3) with no bad losses, but no great wins either. They do have a neutral court win over Utah State. Their remaining schedule is tough, with dates against Mountain West rivals UNLV, San Diego State, and Utah. All four of those teams are in the hunt, so that three game stretch will go a long way in determining who advances.
UAB (39) – With only two RPI top 100 wins, I’m somewhat surprised to see UAB ranked this high, especially with a 17-8 record. The early season win at Arizona looks good and none of their losses is particularly damaging, but UAB may regret not winning one of its several close losses against RPI top 25 teams (Oklahoma, Butler, Memphis). If UAB can knock off Memphis at home, they will get a look, but otherwise I don’t see it happening.
LSU (41) – LSU is a near lock at this point with a 9-1 SEC record, including wins over Tennessee and South Carolina. They can probably afford a slip-up or two, especially if they manage to beat Florida at home or Kentucky on the road. The only yellow flag is their awful, awful non-conference schedule.
Arizona (42) – Winners of seven straight, Arizona is playing well at the right time. Probably safe, but a win at Arizona State or Washington would probably seal the deal. Arizona State currently has an 8-5 conference record and should end up with at least ten conference wins.
USC (43) – Not quite as strong a profile as Arizona, USC has yet to record any significant road wins. Their only remaining chance is at Cal. A home win over Washington this weekend would also enhance their profile, as they currently maintain a 6-6 conference record.
Texas (44) – In a bit of a tailspin at the moment. Texas has non-conference wins over Villanova and Wisconsin but have lost four of their last six. Texas will need to win one of these three games to be confident of a bid: Oklahoma, @Ok St, @Kansas.
San Diego State (45) – Very similar to BYU. Remaining home games against BYU and UNLV could improve their profile. San Diego State missed chances to record non-conference wins against Arizona and St. Mary’s.
Florida (46) – Fairly impressive record at 19-6, but other than an early season win over Washington, the Gators don’t have much to brag about. After blowing a game against previously SEC-winless Georgia, Florida will need to win at least two of these three: @LSU, Tennessee, Kentucky.
Texas A&M (47) – Staying alive after yesterday’s win over Texas, the Aggies have a very realistic chance of reaching .500 in the Big 12. Currently at 4-7, the Aggies only face one more team with a winning conference record (out of five). If Texas A&M can’t defeat Nebraska on the road, they will absolutely have to beat Missouri at home in their regular season finale.
Cincinnati (48) – Swept Georgetown and also have wins over fellow bubble teams UAB and UNLV. Their next three games (Louisville, West Virginia, @Syracuse) are brutal and Cincinnati will probably need to win two of those games to boost their profile.
Miami (49) – Miami has faced a tough schedule and notched a few notable wins (at Kentucky, Florida State, Wake Forest) but they still sit at 4-7 in the ACC. A road win at Florida State would then lead into a manageable four game stretch that could leave them at 9-7. Anything less, however, might not be enough, other than an extended ACC tourney run.
Davidson (50) – Only a win against West Virginia keeps their profile from looking completely blank. Their recent home loss to Charleston (120) hurts, as well as their remaining weak conference schedule, but a Bracket Busters win at home over Butler may push them into safer territory. Also, they may get the benefit of the doubt after last year’s performance.
Virginia Tech (51) – Solid ACC record (6-4) but unfortunately five of their last six games are against RPI top 20 teams. A couple of wins from that group (Florida State, @Clemson, Duke, UNC, @FSU) are essentially a requirement. Virginia Tech already holds solid road wins over Wake Forest and Miami.
Boston College (52) – Wins over Duke and UNC help mask ugly losses to Harvard and Saint Louis. A win in either of their next two games (@ Miami, Florida State) would help tremendously.
Michigan (53) – Still alive after beating Northwestern on the road, Michigan needs to win three of its last five just to get to .500 in the Big Ten. No easy task considering they have two against Minnesota, host Purdue and travel to Wisconsin. Even the one ‘gimmie’ (at Iowa) is no walk in the park. In short, Michigan is up against the wall right now. Wins over Duke and UCLA may come in handy if Michigan can win a few more conference games.
Baylor (54) – Like Michigan, Baylor has struggled in conference, but unlike Michigan, they don’t have great non-conference wins to fall back on, although Arizona State and Providence are both decent wins. At 4-7 in the Big 12, Baylor has to win four of five to get to 8-8. Road trips to Oklahoma State and Texas will probably prevent that from happening.
UNLV (55) – See BYU and San Diego State. They do have an ace in the hole with a road win at Louisville, but will need to score a couple of wins against the trio of Utah, BYU, and San Diego State to separate themselves from the pack.
Creighton (56) – Not likely to get any love with a home win over Dayton as the only decent accomplishment on their profile. If they can run the table, including George Mason in Bracket Busters and MVC rival Illinois State, Creighton might just get a look if they can get to their tourney championship game.
George Mason (57) – No clue how they have an RPI in range of Creighton’s. With five losses to RPI sub-100 teams (and two to RPI sub-200 teams), George Mason should focus on winning their conference tournament.
Illinois State (58) – Significantly weaker profile than Creighton, their RPI might improve with three relatively tough games (@Niagara, Northern Iowa, @Creighton) remaining. Even winning those three might not be enough if they don’t get to their conference title game.
St. Mary’s (59) – As has been well publicized, St. Mary’s has struggled without their injured star, losing four of their last six. A home win over Utah State will look good, but their fate probably rests on the health of Patty Mills.
Maryland (60) – Hanging around in the ACC at 5-5, Maryland faces the four top teams (@Clemson, UNC, Duke, Wake) in their last six games. Maryland will probably need to win two of them to get a solid look.
Kentucky (61) – Hard to envision a tournament without Kentucky, but the Wildcats will have to be careful. Four of their last six are tricky (Tennessee, @South Carolina, LSU, @Florida) and they would do well to split those games.
Niagara (62) – Not bloody likely.
Rhode Island (63) – No signature wins, but if they can run the table they will end up at 12-4 in the A-10. Only Dayton (and maybe @ Duquesne) should present a problem. If that happens, then we’ll talk.
Nebraska (64) – Will need to win four of their last six, including two (maybe three) from this group (@Kansas, Texas A&M, @ Kansas State, @Baylor) to get back into the conversation.
Western Kentucky (65) – Early season win over Louisville is all that’s keeping them alive. Even if they run the table, their weak remaining schedule will drag down their RPI.
Bonus teams!
Providence (69) – No bad losses and some good wins (Syracuse, swept Cincinnati) give Providence a little bit of leeway. Remaining schedule includes @Louisville, Notre Dame, Pitt, @Villanova. Two wins from that group could leave Providence at 11-5 in the Big East, which should be good enough for the Dance.
Penn State (71) – Terrible non-conference schedule holds them back, but if they can win one of their next two (@Illinois, @OSU) Penn State’s stock should increase dramatically.
Notre Dame (74) – Sigh. They need to win four of six to get to .500 in the Big East. That means winning two from this group: @West Virginia, @Providence, @Connecticut, Villanova. I don’t see it happening, but they still have a chance.
There you have it. If I had to pick ten from that group, I’d go with LSU, Arizona, Texas, BYU, Florida, Kentucky, Boston College, UNLV, Temple, and Utah State.
Thursday, January 29, 2009
And that happened...
By the way, Florida won the BCS Championship and extended the SEC’s title reign to three years. This gives the SEC four of the last six National Championships and, since the inauguration of the BCS, five of eleven. Unfortunately, other than recruiting, no one really cares about college football right now. After the Super Bowl, we’ll officially have no football until early fall. I guess we’ll have to make due with basketball and baseball until then.
Speaking of basketball, the SEC has been absolutely terrible this year. Tennessee barely looks like a tournament-worthy team (having gone 1-4 in their last five home games) and the rest of the league is even worse. No team is in the RPI top 25, and Kentucky is the lone SEC representative in the polls. After losing to Ole Miss, I doubt they’ll stick around much longer, either. Only two teams (Tennessee and Florida) are even in the RPI top 50. For absolute futility, the award has to go to Georgia. The Bulldogs (9-11) somehow have a lower RPI than such storied programs as Canisius (7-13) and Rice (6-14). Just sad.
And how the hell is Notre Dame ranked? Okay, they beat Texas and (a now-slumping) Georgetown, but come on, people! Other than those two teams, their next best win is over Seton Hall! The same Seton Hall that’s 1-6 in the Big East. Oh, and Notre Dame is ranked 78th in RPI, is 11-7 and they’ve lost five of their last seven. I don’t care if four of those losses have been against top 25 teams, teams should be ranked because they win games, not because they ‘kind of keep it close’ against elite teams. The rest of the schedule doesn’t get any easier with six RPI top 50 opponents left to go (four on the road) so hopefully Notre Dame will just fade away. Although I wouldn’t mind having the opportunity to pick them to get upset by another double-digit seed in the tourney…
Speaking of basketball, the SEC has been absolutely terrible this year. Tennessee barely looks like a tournament-worthy team (having gone 1-4 in their last five home games) and the rest of the league is even worse. No team is in the RPI top 25, and Kentucky is the lone SEC representative in the polls. After losing to Ole Miss, I doubt they’ll stick around much longer, either. Only two teams (Tennessee and Florida) are even in the RPI top 50. For absolute futility, the award has to go to Georgia. The Bulldogs (9-11) somehow have a lower RPI than such storied programs as Canisius (7-13) and Rice (6-14). Just sad.
And how the hell is Notre Dame ranked? Okay, they beat Texas and (a now-slumping) Georgetown, but come on, people! Other than those two teams, their next best win is over Seton Hall! The same Seton Hall that’s 1-6 in the Big East. Oh, and Notre Dame is ranked 78th in RPI, is 11-7 and they’ve lost five of their last seven. I don’t care if four of those losses have been against top 25 teams, teams should be ranked because they win games, not because they ‘kind of keep it close’ against elite teams. The rest of the schedule doesn’t get any easier with six RPI top 50 opponents left to go (four on the road) so hopefully Notre Dame will just fade away. Although I wouldn’t mind having the opportunity to pick them to get upset by another double-digit seed in the tourney…
Monday, November 24, 2008
Weekend in Review
True to typical BCS form (as of late) Texas Tech laid a huge egg against Oklahoma and tumbled out of the BCS race. For the moment. Analysts are already putting together scenarios in which the now 7th ranked Red Raiders can return to title game contention.
How big of a disaster would that be? Think about it. Let's say Oklahoma State knocks off Oklahoma next week. That would propel Texas Tech to the Big 12 Championship game, where they would face a Missouri team that has already been manhandled by Red Raider-victim Texas. Texas Tech would likely pass both Texas and Oklahoma with a Big 12 title on its resume, and presumably Utah and the loser of Alabama-Florida as well. For those keeping track at home, that would push them from #7 to #3. Would voters leapfrog Texas Tech over a somewhat uninspiring (and currently 5th ranked) USC team? Hard to say, but I can just imagine the complaints if a team that recently lost by 40+ points ended up in the title game.
In other news, we are inching dangerously close to another yawn-inducing Rose Bowl. Now that Penn State has locked up a Rose Bowl berth, no one seems to be mentioning the fact that current Pac-10 leader Oregon State has already played Penn State. And they certainly aren't mentioning the fact that the first matchup ended before it even started, with Penn State claiming a 45-14 victory. While I would love to see USC miss a BCS bowl, I'd much rather see them play Penn State that have to suffer a week-one rematch. Expect the Rose Bowl brass to be secretly rooting for Oregon to take down Oregon State this weekend.
The ACC continues to prove that is a worthless conference. Odds are overwhelming that the conference champion will have at least four losses, unless Boston College can salvage what's left of the ACC's dignity by winning out. Only three teams have less than four losses, and all three sit at three losses. Boston College of course is one of them, and the other two are Florida State and Georgia Tech. The latter two teams each have tough out of conference rivalry games (against Florida and Georgia, respectively) remaining, so I would not count on either of them pulling out a win.
Utah, Boise State, and Ball State all won to remain undefeated, but odds are that only one of them will receive a BCS invitation. Given that Utah has already wrapped up its season and has a hefty BCS ranking advantage over their two 'mid-major' rivals, it looks like tough cookies for Boise State and Ball State.
In another blow for Tennessee, albeit an indirect one, Wyoming fired its coach this week. What does it say about Tennessee's program that a win over Tennessee would not be enough to save the job of a coach at Wyoming (Wyoming!)? Five years ago, this would have been talked about for weeks, but now it's just another disappointing event in a looong season.
The Cincinnati Bearcats are poised to claim a Big East automatic BCS berth after downing Pitt. Only a win over lowly Syracuse stands in the way of a potential Orange Bowl appearance. Great job by that team, and totally unexpected this season: The Big East media picked Cincinnati to finish fifth in the conference. Expect to hear head coach Brian Kelley's name thrown around alot this offseason in connection with various big-time openings.
Finally, a word on Alabama. Yes, they are undefeated, but I can't help feeling they will fall short before they even reach the SEC championship game. According to most statistical rankings, Alabama has the weakest schedule of any top 25 team, excluding the non-BCS schools. Other than the big win over Georgia (in which they only played well for the first half) Alabama really hasn't put together a dominant performance. Three of their SEC wins have come by less than a touchdown, and those were against mid-tier teams like LSU, Ole Miss and Kentucky. Alabama clearly has talent, but I think they have benefited from a slightly easier schedule than the rest of their SEC counterparts. The Iron Bowl will be a big mental challenge this weekend. Although Auburn is not as talented as they have been in the past, emotions always run high in the Iron Bowl and I expect a tough game. Also, Alabama hasn't beaten Auburn since 2001, so this game certainly isn't a given for 'Bama.
How big of a disaster would that be? Think about it. Let's say Oklahoma State knocks off Oklahoma next week. That would propel Texas Tech to the Big 12 Championship game, where they would face a Missouri team that has already been manhandled by Red Raider-victim Texas. Texas Tech would likely pass both Texas and Oklahoma with a Big 12 title on its resume, and presumably Utah and the loser of Alabama-Florida as well. For those keeping track at home, that would push them from #7 to #3. Would voters leapfrog Texas Tech over a somewhat uninspiring (and currently 5th ranked) USC team? Hard to say, but I can just imagine the complaints if a team that recently lost by 40+ points ended up in the title game.
In other news, we are inching dangerously close to another yawn-inducing Rose Bowl. Now that Penn State has locked up a Rose Bowl berth, no one seems to be mentioning the fact that current Pac-10 leader Oregon State has already played Penn State. And they certainly aren't mentioning the fact that the first matchup ended before it even started, with Penn State claiming a 45-14 victory. While I would love to see USC miss a BCS bowl, I'd much rather see them play Penn State that have to suffer a week-one rematch. Expect the Rose Bowl brass to be secretly rooting for Oregon to take down Oregon State this weekend.
The ACC continues to prove that is a worthless conference. Odds are overwhelming that the conference champion will have at least four losses, unless Boston College can salvage what's left of the ACC's dignity by winning out. Only three teams have less than four losses, and all three sit at three losses. Boston College of course is one of them, and the other two are Florida State and Georgia Tech. The latter two teams each have tough out of conference rivalry games (against Florida and Georgia, respectively) remaining, so I would not count on either of them pulling out a win.
Utah, Boise State, and Ball State all won to remain undefeated, but odds are that only one of them will receive a BCS invitation. Given that Utah has already wrapped up its season and has a hefty BCS ranking advantage over their two 'mid-major' rivals, it looks like tough cookies for Boise State and Ball State.
In another blow for Tennessee, albeit an indirect one, Wyoming fired its coach this week. What does it say about Tennessee's program that a win over Tennessee would not be enough to save the job of a coach at Wyoming (Wyoming!)? Five years ago, this would have been talked about for weeks, but now it's just another disappointing event in a looong season.
The Cincinnati Bearcats are poised to claim a Big East automatic BCS berth after downing Pitt. Only a win over lowly Syracuse stands in the way of a potential Orange Bowl appearance. Great job by that team, and totally unexpected this season: The Big East media picked Cincinnati to finish fifth in the conference. Expect to hear head coach Brian Kelley's name thrown around alot this offseason in connection with various big-time openings.
Finally, a word on Alabama. Yes, they are undefeated, but I can't help feeling they will fall short before they even reach the SEC championship game. According to most statistical rankings, Alabama has the weakest schedule of any top 25 team, excluding the non-BCS schools. Other than the big win over Georgia (in which they only played well for the first half) Alabama really hasn't put together a dominant performance. Three of their SEC wins have come by less than a touchdown, and those were against mid-tier teams like LSU, Ole Miss and Kentucky. Alabama clearly has talent, but I think they have benefited from a slightly easier schedule than the rest of their SEC counterparts. The Iron Bowl will be a big mental challenge this weekend. Although Auburn is not as talented as they have been in the past, emotions always run high in the Iron Bowl and I expect a tough game. Also, Alabama hasn't beaten Auburn since 2001, so this game certainly isn't a given for 'Bama.
Monday, November 17, 2008
Maybe Obama isn't the Anti-Christ after all...
You have to give Obama credit. Politicians have long attacked unpopular ideas in order to build their support. What better way to bring the country together after a divisive election than by attacking the wildly unpopular BCS? Even though the idea of the (future) most powerful man in the world stooping down to meddle in the world of college athletics is a little absurd, it is definitely a smart play.
The common man may not understand the reasons for the mortgage crisis (which is probably why we have the crisis in the first place), whether or not the domestic auto manufacturers are worth saving, or how to simultaneously reduce the federal deficit and lower taxes, but he does know one thing: the BCS sucks.
College football is the only major team sport that does not have an inclusive post-season tournament, and as long as the networks continue to sign decade-long deals with BCS bigwigs, we’ll never see any change. Whether the future President himself could force the BCS power-brokers to institute a playoff is debatable, but he will certainly earn himself a few more favorable opinions by at least pretending to try to do something about it.
I have supported a playoff system in the past, but one of the problems is that while everyone seems to want a playoff, no one can agree on the structure. At the moment, an eight team playoff seems to be the most popular, but some are arguing for a four or sixteen team playoff. Four teams is clearly not enough to have a true playoff, and sixteen would dilute the value of the regular season. For example, Oklahoma and USC are ranked fifth and sixth in the BCS, but most people would concede that those two teams are just as deserving as number three Texas. Well, at least USC is, since Texas already beat Oklahoma. As far as having sixteen teams, just consider that Michigan State and TCU are ranked 15th and 16th, respectively. While both are solid teams, most would agree that including three teams each from the Big Ten (also: Penn State, Ohio State) and MWC (also: Utah, BYU) is a little excessive.
Location also seems to be a concern. Where would these playoff games be held? Would the fans be able to travel with such short notice? It doesn’t seem to be an issue in other sports, but for some reason it keeps coming up in this debate. The NFL and NCAA Final Four fans seem to manage with the uncertainty, and I don’t see why it would be a problem for a college football playoff. As long as a clear bracket was established, fans would know in advance where their team might end up.
Other concerns such as “hurting student athletes” by extending the season are ludicrous. All other divisions of college football have a playoff, and most of those schools have more of an emphasis on academics than the college football factories.
Perhaps the BCS proponents’ strongest argument is the most basic one: it’s all about money. Since the inception of the BCS, college football has never been more popular. Television networks are falling over themselves trying to secure the rights to televise games. More and more schools are expanding their stadiums and adding luxury suites. College football is bringing in more money than ever. With a playoff, would people still tune in to the regular season?
First of all, I don’t believe that an eight team playoff would be all that dilutive to the regular season. Winning a conference title is still a major accomplishment, and fans will continue to tune in to see those games. Most big-time programs have several heated rivalries, and with the small number of games per year, each individual game carries huge importance. One argument against a playoff system is that fans will lose interest in these late-season games (such as Penn State losing to Iowa) because they will lack the drama of an elimination-type game. However, I could argue that the BCS makes virtually every game meaningless. Once your team loses, it is basically eliminated from contention. What reason do you have to watch the games of other teams after your team loses?
Of course, that is not true. Michigan and Tennessee still have packed houses for their games despite horrific seasons. Fans will continue to watch games like Penn State-Iowa because they love college football and the game has a significant factor in deciding the conference championship.
The biggest reason for a playoff goes beyond money (and the millions a playoff would generate) because college football (and sports in general) is about more than that. Players play to win. This isn’t gymnastics. Style points shouldn’t matter. Decide the outcome on the field. How can you tell a 12-0 Utah or Ball State “congrats on winning all your games, now enjoy the Humanitarian Bowl”? Don’t they deserve a chance to play for it all? How do you tell an 11-1 USC that their 11-1 isn’t as good as Florida or Oklahoma’s?
At some point you have to look past all the fluff to see the truth, and truth is that college football needs a playoff.
The common man may not understand the reasons for the mortgage crisis (which is probably why we have the crisis in the first place), whether or not the domestic auto manufacturers are worth saving, or how to simultaneously reduce the federal deficit and lower taxes, but he does know one thing: the BCS sucks.
College football is the only major team sport that does not have an inclusive post-season tournament, and as long as the networks continue to sign decade-long deals with BCS bigwigs, we’ll never see any change. Whether the future President himself could force the BCS power-brokers to institute a playoff is debatable, but he will certainly earn himself a few more favorable opinions by at least pretending to try to do something about it.
I have supported a playoff system in the past, but one of the problems is that while everyone seems to want a playoff, no one can agree on the structure. At the moment, an eight team playoff seems to be the most popular, but some are arguing for a four or sixteen team playoff. Four teams is clearly not enough to have a true playoff, and sixteen would dilute the value of the regular season. For example, Oklahoma and USC are ranked fifth and sixth in the BCS, but most people would concede that those two teams are just as deserving as number three Texas. Well, at least USC is, since Texas already beat Oklahoma. As far as having sixteen teams, just consider that Michigan State and TCU are ranked 15th and 16th, respectively. While both are solid teams, most would agree that including three teams each from the Big Ten (also: Penn State, Ohio State) and MWC (also: Utah, BYU) is a little excessive.
Location also seems to be a concern. Where would these playoff games be held? Would the fans be able to travel with such short notice? It doesn’t seem to be an issue in other sports, but for some reason it keeps coming up in this debate. The NFL and NCAA Final Four fans seem to manage with the uncertainty, and I don’t see why it would be a problem for a college football playoff. As long as a clear bracket was established, fans would know in advance where their team might end up.
Other concerns such as “hurting student athletes” by extending the season are ludicrous. All other divisions of college football have a playoff, and most of those schools have more of an emphasis on academics than the college football factories.
Perhaps the BCS proponents’ strongest argument is the most basic one: it’s all about money. Since the inception of the BCS, college football has never been more popular. Television networks are falling over themselves trying to secure the rights to televise games. More and more schools are expanding their stadiums and adding luxury suites. College football is bringing in more money than ever. With a playoff, would people still tune in to the regular season?
First of all, I don’t believe that an eight team playoff would be all that dilutive to the regular season. Winning a conference title is still a major accomplishment, and fans will continue to tune in to see those games. Most big-time programs have several heated rivalries, and with the small number of games per year, each individual game carries huge importance. One argument against a playoff system is that fans will lose interest in these late-season games (such as Penn State losing to Iowa) because they will lack the drama of an elimination-type game. However, I could argue that the BCS makes virtually every game meaningless. Once your team loses, it is basically eliminated from contention. What reason do you have to watch the games of other teams after your team loses?
Of course, that is not true. Michigan and Tennessee still have packed houses for their games despite horrific seasons. Fans will continue to watch games like Penn State-Iowa because they love college football and the game has a significant factor in deciding the conference championship.
The biggest reason for a playoff goes beyond money (and the millions a playoff would generate) because college football (and sports in general) is about more than that. Players play to win. This isn’t gymnastics. Style points shouldn’t matter. Decide the outcome on the field. How can you tell a 12-0 Utah or Ball State “congrats on winning all your games, now enjoy the Humanitarian Bowl”? Don’t they deserve a chance to play for it all? How do you tell an 11-1 USC that their 11-1 isn’t as good as Florida or Oklahoma’s?
At some point you have to look past all the fluff to see the truth, and truth is that college football needs a playoff.
Friday, November 7, 2008
11/8 Weekend Preview
This week’s college football schedule has already produced a few noteworthy results. Ball State continues to roll, with Northern Illinois their latest victim. The have allowed less than 10 points per game in their last four wins while averaging nearly 35 points on offense. As I mentioned a few weeks ago, Ball State’s two toughest games are still yet to come, with Central Michigan and Western Michigan (both 7-2) looming at the end of the season. Even if the Cardinals run the table (including the MAC Championship game) it’s hard to envision them ending up anywhere other than the Motor City Bowl.
In ACC conference play, Virginia Tech ‘upset’ Maryland (even though the Hokies were favored and playing at home) which confirmed that Maryland simply does not belong in the upper tier of the ACC. Then again, who can really separate the ACC into tiers? The only team that clearly has no chance of winning the conference is NC State, sitting in the cellar with a 0-4 conference record. Even Duke (1-3) has only one more conference loss than Coastal division leader Georgia Tech (4-2). In fact, every team except for NC State has either two or three conference losses. If I had to pick a favorite, I might go with North Carolina. They host Georgia Tech this weekend, and finish up with Maryland, NC State and Duke.
BCS haters all over the country were tuned in to Utah-TCU last night (well, those who have CBS College Sports Network…huh?), where the two Mountain West teams had a hard-fought, low-scoring game that ended in a 13-10 win for the Utes. TCU was favored by 3 points, despite Utah’s undefeated record and home field advantage. However, they were undone by two late missed field goals and a gut-wrenching, game-winning Utah touchdown drive in the final minute. Utah now has three relatively solid wins (Oregon State, Air Force, TCU) but even a win over 8-1 BYU probably won’t be enough evidence for a solid title game argument. However, a BCS bowl berth is certainly a possibility. Utah only needs to finish in the BCS top 12 (they are currently ranked 8th) so if Utah wins out, they will certainly receive a BCS bowl bid.
As far as the weekend games, I would not be surprised to be see all three of the top ranked teams lose. #1 Alabama is heading to Death Valley to play LSU, and while LSU has struggled against top opponents (Florida, Georgia) this game will have a completely different feel due the emotion of Nick Saban returning to LSU. The general consensus among LSU fans is that they appreciate what he did for the school, but they have no respect for him. This game will definitely be tougher than it appears on paper for the Tide.
#2 Texas Tech hosts Oklahoma State, and the big question will be whether they can keep the momentum going after the huge Texas win. The Red Raiders are only three point favorites, so Vegas isn’t expecting them to run away with it. Oklahoma State has a strong running game and could surprise Texas Tech. #3 Penn State is on the road this week, and they will face Iowa. Clearly Iowa isn’t as much of a challenge as the two previous teams’ opponents, but Iowa may be a tad underrated. They have a great running back, and all four of their losses have come by a touchdown or less.
As I mentioned before, the winner of North Carolina-Georgia Tech will have the inside track to the Coastal division championship, and North Carolina has to be happy that they will have home field advantage. Virginia and Wake Forest also face off in what could be an elimination game. Even though they are in different divisions, both teams cannot afford another loss at this point in the season.
Tennessee and Auburn will have the opportunity to get a win, although for their offenses nothing is easy at this point. Tennessee hosts Wyoming, while Auburn welcomes Tennessee-Martin. If either one of those teams loses, expect immediate rioting.
In ACC conference play, Virginia Tech ‘upset’ Maryland (even though the Hokies were favored and playing at home) which confirmed that Maryland simply does not belong in the upper tier of the ACC. Then again, who can really separate the ACC into tiers? The only team that clearly has no chance of winning the conference is NC State, sitting in the cellar with a 0-4 conference record. Even Duke (1-3) has only one more conference loss than Coastal division leader Georgia Tech (4-2). In fact, every team except for NC State has either two or three conference losses. If I had to pick a favorite, I might go with North Carolina. They host Georgia Tech this weekend, and finish up with Maryland, NC State and Duke.
BCS haters all over the country were tuned in to Utah-TCU last night (well, those who have CBS College Sports Network…huh?), where the two Mountain West teams had a hard-fought, low-scoring game that ended in a 13-10 win for the Utes. TCU was favored by 3 points, despite Utah’s undefeated record and home field advantage. However, they were undone by two late missed field goals and a gut-wrenching, game-winning Utah touchdown drive in the final minute. Utah now has three relatively solid wins (Oregon State, Air Force, TCU) but even a win over 8-1 BYU probably won’t be enough evidence for a solid title game argument. However, a BCS bowl berth is certainly a possibility. Utah only needs to finish in the BCS top 12 (they are currently ranked 8th) so if Utah wins out, they will certainly receive a BCS bowl bid.
As far as the weekend games, I would not be surprised to be see all three of the top ranked teams lose. #1 Alabama is heading to Death Valley to play LSU, and while LSU has struggled against top opponents (Florida, Georgia) this game will have a completely different feel due the emotion of Nick Saban returning to LSU. The general consensus among LSU fans is that they appreciate what he did for the school, but they have no respect for him. This game will definitely be tougher than it appears on paper for the Tide.
#2 Texas Tech hosts Oklahoma State, and the big question will be whether they can keep the momentum going after the huge Texas win. The Red Raiders are only three point favorites, so Vegas isn’t expecting them to run away with it. Oklahoma State has a strong running game and could surprise Texas Tech. #3 Penn State is on the road this week, and they will face Iowa. Clearly Iowa isn’t as much of a challenge as the two previous teams’ opponents, but Iowa may be a tad underrated. They have a great running back, and all four of their losses have come by a touchdown or less.
As I mentioned before, the winner of North Carolina-Georgia Tech will have the inside track to the Coastal division championship, and North Carolina has to be happy that they will have home field advantage. Virginia and Wake Forest also face off in what could be an elimination game. Even though they are in different divisions, both teams cannot afford another loss at this point in the season.
Tennessee and Auburn will have the opportunity to get a win, although for their offenses nothing is easy at this point. Tennessee hosts Wyoming, while Auburn welcomes Tennessee-Martin. If either one of those teams loses, expect immediate rioting.
Monday, November 3, 2008
Thanks for the Memories
So it's official - Phillip Fulmer is out as coach of the Tennessee Volunteers. I can't say that I didn't expect this would happen, but what is surprising is how I feel about it.After the Alabama game, I was ready to join the throngs calling for Fulmer's head. Tennessee had once again failed to defeat a hated rival, and the Vols were pretty much trounced in the process. And unfortunately, it wasn't anything new. The Vols' failures against their "Big Three" rivals (Georgia, Florida, Alabama) is well documented. They have managed only three victories against the trio in their last twelve attempts.
The team's early season offensive woes can be partially attributed to Jonathan Crompton, who disappointed many Vols fans that expected him to come in and pick up where Erik Ainge left off, but he certainly doesn't deserve all of the blame. The offensive line has also been a huge disappointment, which left Tennessee's talented group of running backs unable to break free. Even special teams has dipped this year, with last year's freshman sensation kicker Daniel Lincoln taking huge steps backward this year. He is barely converting 50% of field goal tries after connecting on 75% of his tries last year.
The defense has been one of the lone bright spots this season. Safety Eric Berry leads the nation in interceptions and the defense is currently ranked 11th in the nation in yards allowed per game. Sure, part of that ranking might be that the opposition is constantly getting the ball in good field position, but it's still a notable achievement. When watching the Vols play, you can tell that the defense is talented and never gives up, even when the offense is sputtering.
In any case, after watching Tennessee fall to Alabama again, I was ready to write Fulmer off. However, after watching this past week's game against South Carolina I started to realize that a coach can only take his team so far. Players have to execute, and the bottom line all season (at least for the offense) has been a failure to execute. Fulmer didn't throw that ill-advised interception that was returned for a touchdown. He didn't fumble at his own 4 yard line (which led to another SC touchdown) or continually drop passes, miss blocks, or make stupid penalties. Sure, coaching should improve players' performances and reduce stupid mistakes, but again, there is only so much he can do.
One of Phillip Fulmer's best attributes over the years has been his recruiting. Three of his last seven classes have been ranked in the top 4 (according to rivals.com) with two others in the top twenty. Even amidst all the controversy this season, Tennessee's 2009 recruiting class is currently rated sixth in the nation. How many of those recruits will Tennessee lose when Fulmer leaves? Verbal commit Jarvis Giles, rated the number two all-purpose back in the country and from Florida no less, has already expressed concern over Fulmer's departure.
I'm sure that everyone recalls Penn State's dark days just a few years ago. During the five year 2000-2004 stretch, Penn State only made ONE bowl game, which they lost. Penn State endured two consecutive 9th place Big Ten finishes (with three total conference wins in that span) before rebounding to an 11-1 2005 season, complete with a BCS bowl win. As I'm sure you are aware, this year Penn State has a fairly clear path to a 12-0 season and a possible appearance in the National Championship game. JoePa heard the cries for his head, but the university stuck by him in those tough times and now he is showing the country that he and his team still have it.
College football is a cyclical game, and in a sport where stars and benchwarmers alike come and go in a few short seasons, continuity has to be worth something. One merely has to look at the messes in Auburn and Clemson to see that constantly changing the coaching staff doesn't always generate instant success.
For every Alabama Saban-like turnaround, how many Bill Callahan (Nebraska) disasters do you have? Jim Tressel was able to take Ohio State to the next level after his predecessor John Cooper couldn't seem to beat Michigan, but when Michigan tried the same thing after Lloyd Carr... Well, just look at the mess they have with Rich Rodriguez.
It's easy to pile on Phillip Fulmer right now, but I think fans and neutral observers alike can agree that Fulmer gave everything he had to Tennessee and deserved more on his way out. Many people will remember the outpouring of support that Fulmer received from famous Tennessee alums (including Peyton Manning) last season when his job security appeared to be on the ropes, but it became a moot issue when the Vols rallied to appear in the SEC Championship. By all accounts, he has the same support among his current players.
The SEC has grown exponentially over the last few years in talent (both players and coaches) and, fair or not, Fulmer often appeared to be a lumbering dinosaur against the likes of Urban Meyer and Mark Richt. However, I shudder at the thought of an Auburn-like spread disaster at Tennessee, and I can only hope the school's leadership has a solid plan for who they want to bring in to take over the reins. As a life-long Vol fan, I can barely remember the pre-Fulmer era, and it will certainly take awhile to get used to seeing someone else roaming those sidelines.
Administrative Announcement
I’ve made a slight format change to the site. I will continue to use this space to write about college football (and basketball to some degree) but my talents on professional sports have been pried away to the esteemed OneGameOut.
Please check them out for my musings on the NFL, NBA, MLB, soccer, racing, hockey, and various other shenanigans and random observations.
That way this site can remain true to its original intent – writing about how great the SEC is!
Please check them out for my musings on the NFL, NBA, MLB, soccer, racing, hockey, and various other shenanigans and random observations.
That way this site can remain true to its original intent – writing about how great the SEC is!
Friday, October 31, 2008
College Football Weekend Preview
In an announcement that is sure to crush and disappoint many of you, my weekly college football rankings are suspended for this week, due to a complete lack of teams worthy of filling out the full list.
Seriously, who belongs in the top 25? I can only count about 16 teams that clearly deserve that distinction. Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, and Texas from the Big 12; Alabama, Georgia, and Florida from the SEC, Penn State and Ohio State from the Big Ten, USC from the Pac 10, and undefeated Utah, Boise State, Tulsa and Ball State. Throw in once-beaten TCU and that gets you a grand total of 15 teams. I think LSU, Missouri and Michigan State could have compelling arguments, but beyond that, I’m at a loss.
The Big East and ACC are tripping over themselves as they rush out of the Top 25. Last week, Boston College, Florida State and Georgia Tech appeared in the top 25, with Virginia Tech just outside the rankings. Three of those teams lost last week, so now all of a sudden North Carolina and Maryland are the flavors of the week. And this is despite Maryland’s early season loss to Middle Tennessee State, who is 1-6 in games not against Maryland. Florida State appears to have the best resume out of the ACC with wins over Miami and Virginia Tech, but the 12-3 home loss to Wake Forest is hard to ignore. Virginia currently leads the ACC Coastal division, but they are carrying THREE blowout losses, including one to Duke!
The Big East is even worse. South Florida and Pitt were the Big East top 25 representatives, but both managed to lose last weekend. Voters appear poised to send West Virginia (currently ranked 26th) into the top 25, despite the fact they have yet to beat a team that currently has a winning record. Well, unless you count CAA conference member Villanova.
Another team that has no business in the top 25 is Minnesota (AP #20). Sure, Minnesota is 7-1, but they haven’t beat single team with a winning record. Hell, they gave up 23 points at home to Montana State. Montana State couldn’t even manage 20 in losses to Weber State and Eastern Washington. I guess someone has to be in the top 25, but I’m protesting until teams start to prove themselves.
This weekend has a few exciting games, but the overall slate isn’t too appealing. Georgia-Florida has generated the most headlines, especially in the wake of last year’s ‘controversial’ touchdown celebration/field-rushing. The winner of this game should take the SEC East and will probably be favorites to win the SEC. Alabama will be the SEC West representatives, but I feel that they may have peaked and may be a tad over-rated. The only other noteworthy matchup is Texas-Texas Tech. Both teams are undefeated, so the winner will have a huge edge in the Big 12 South race. If Texas wins, they will have defeated their three principal South rivals (Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech) and will effectively have a two game lead with only three left to play.
In news that few people will care about, Tennessee will be fighting for their bowl lives as they take on Steve Spurrier and South Carolina. A win would still give Tennessee a chance to finish with a winning record and a bowl game, as they only have Wyoming, Vanderbilt and Kentucky left on the schedule after this week.
Two other similar matchups are happening in the SEC this weekend. Auburn and Ole Miss square off, both with 4-4 records. The winner will keep bowl hopes alive, the loser will likely be done for the year. Kentucky and Mississippi State play under the same circumstances. Kentucky is 5-3, while Mississippi State is 3-5, but both have a 1-3 SEC record. If Kentucky can pull out a win, they conceivably could win eight games this year, with Vanderbilt and Tennessee still on the schedule. Yes, that was painful for me to admit. I’m going to go get a beer…
Seriously, who belongs in the top 25? I can only count about 16 teams that clearly deserve that distinction. Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, and Texas from the Big 12; Alabama, Georgia, and Florida from the SEC, Penn State and Ohio State from the Big Ten, USC from the Pac 10, and undefeated Utah, Boise State, Tulsa and Ball State. Throw in once-beaten TCU and that gets you a grand total of 15 teams. I think LSU, Missouri and Michigan State could have compelling arguments, but beyond that, I’m at a loss.
The Big East and ACC are tripping over themselves as they rush out of the Top 25. Last week, Boston College, Florida State and Georgia Tech appeared in the top 25, with Virginia Tech just outside the rankings. Three of those teams lost last week, so now all of a sudden North Carolina and Maryland are the flavors of the week. And this is despite Maryland’s early season loss to Middle Tennessee State, who is 1-6 in games not against Maryland. Florida State appears to have the best resume out of the ACC with wins over Miami and Virginia Tech, but the 12-3 home loss to Wake Forest is hard to ignore. Virginia currently leads the ACC Coastal division, but they are carrying THREE blowout losses, including one to Duke!
The Big East is even worse. South Florida and Pitt were the Big East top 25 representatives, but both managed to lose last weekend. Voters appear poised to send West Virginia (currently ranked 26th) into the top 25, despite the fact they have yet to beat a team that currently has a winning record. Well, unless you count CAA conference member Villanova.
Another team that has no business in the top 25 is Minnesota (AP #20). Sure, Minnesota is 7-1, but they haven’t beat single team with a winning record. Hell, they gave up 23 points at home to Montana State. Montana State couldn’t even manage 20 in losses to Weber State and Eastern Washington. I guess someone has to be in the top 25, but I’m protesting until teams start to prove themselves.
This weekend has a few exciting games, but the overall slate isn’t too appealing. Georgia-Florida has generated the most headlines, especially in the wake of last year’s ‘controversial’ touchdown celebration/field-rushing. The winner of this game should take the SEC East and will probably be favorites to win the SEC. Alabama will be the SEC West representatives, but I feel that they may have peaked and may be a tad over-rated. The only other noteworthy matchup is Texas-Texas Tech. Both teams are undefeated, so the winner will have a huge edge in the Big 12 South race. If Texas wins, they will have defeated their three principal South rivals (Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech) and will effectively have a two game lead with only three left to play.
In news that few people will care about, Tennessee will be fighting for their bowl lives as they take on Steve Spurrier and South Carolina. A win would still give Tennessee a chance to finish with a winning record and a bowl game, as they only have Wyoming, Vanderbilt and Kentucky left on the schedule after this week.
Two other similar matchups are happening in the SEC this weekend. Auburn and Ole Miss square off, both with 4-4 records. The winner will keep bowl hopes alive, the loser will likely be done for the year. Kentucky and Mississippi State play under the same circumstances. Kentucky is 5-3, while Mississippi State is 3-5, but both have a 1-3 SEC record. If Kentucky can pull out a win, they conceivably could win eight games this year, with Vanderbilt and Tennessee still on the schedule. Yes, that was painful for me to admit. I’m going to go get a beer…
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
College Football Rankings - 10/22
1. Texas (AP #1) – Texas can claim two wins over big-time opponents (Oklahoma, Missouri) that are bigger than any other pair of wins in the country. Outside of those two shootouts, Texas has not allowed more than 14 points in a game, while racking up at least 38 points in every game.
2. Alabama AP #2) – Alabama seems to lose focus in the second half. They have allowed their last three opponents to crawl back into games after staking big first half leads. Tennessee will give them everything they have in another huge rivalry game.
3. Penn State (AP #3) – The good: Penn State has scored 38 points or more in every contest except one (20-6 win over Purdue) and allowed more than 17 points only once (38-24 win over Illinois). The bad: Penn State’s best wins are over Oregon State and Illinois. Their last three Big Ten opponents have a combined one conference win. Penn State may not be ready for a slugfest with Ohio State this weekend.
4. Florida (AP #5) – Still dangerous with Tebow at the helm. The Gators will have to be careful not to overlook Kentucky, with Georgia looming around the corner.
5. USC (AP #6) – Everyone seems to have forgotten the OSU demolition derby in the wake of USC’s Oregon State loss. Without a single true ‘test’ remaining, USC could sneak into the BCS title game amidst the SEC and Big 12 cannibalization.
6. Oklahoma (AP #4) – Maybe I was wrong about TCU being a ‘cake’ win. However, the defense is still a concern for Oklahoma.
7. Georgia (AP #9) – Georgia is still lacking that marquee win, but will have an excellent opportunity to get one when they travel to Baton Rouge this weekend to face LSU.
8. Ohio State (AP #10) – Is Ohio State this good, or was Michigan State that bad? The Spartans may have lied down a little at the end of that game, but the scoreline is impressive nonetheless. While I don’t expect Ohio State to make it all the way back to the BCS title game, a win over Penn State this weekend could ensure them a Rose Bowl berth.
9. Oklahoma State (AP #7) – Oklahoma State’s party could be over. Texas is coming to town, and if history is any indication, it won’t be pretty. Other than their win over Missouri, Oklahoma State has yet to face a reputable team.
10. LSU (AP #11) – The Tigers gutted out a tough road win at South Carolina after enduring a beatdown at the hands of the Gators. As mentioned above, this weekend is key game, as Georgia comes to Death Valley.
11. Utah (AP #12) – To be honest, I struggled with finding a team qualified for this ranking. Utah seems to have the best resume, with a couple of decent wins (Oregon State, Air Force) and no losses. Utah still has to play TCU and BYU, so if they win those games, Utah will be hard to ignore.
12. Missouri (AP #16) – Sure, they got crushed by Texas, but how many of these teams further down this list could hang with the Longhorns? I may be acting overly generous here, but until Texas Tech beats Missouri, I won’t rank Missouri behind them.
13. Texas Tech (AP #8) – When your best win is in overtime against Nebraska, it’s going to take awhile for me to warm up to you. Like I mentioned last week, four straight games against ranked teams will give the Red Raiders all the chances the need to make a statement.
14. Boise State (AP #13) – Boise State is clinging to that Oregon win, because it’s the only thing that will keep them afloat in the rankings for the rest of the season. A single loss will probably see them fall out of the top 25.
15. Pitt (AP #17) – A dark horse of sorts since losing their opener to Bowling Green, Pitt has slowly crept back into the thick of the race. Their early season win over Iowa is looking a little better, and even last week’s win over Navy is better than several teams ahead of them can claim.
16. Vanderbilt (AP #28)– Hanging with a top five or ten team shouldn’t plummet a team in the rankings, so I’ll leave Vanderbilt in roughly the same spot after they lost to Georgia last week.
17. Tulsa (AP #22) – Any team that scores 77 points has to be considered dangerous. Tulsa only has one game left against a team with a winning record (Houston) so I don’t expect Tulsa to improve its position.
18. Michigan State (AP #29) – Why the polls have Michigan State out of the ranking but Northwestern in the top 25 is beyond me, especially when you consider that Michigan State already beat Northwestern. Handily.
19. Georgia Tech (AP #21) – Georgia Tech may be taking steps to prove itself as the ACC front-runner. However, their remaining schedule is pretty brutal, as all five opponents have winning records.
20. TCU (AP #15) – TCU surprised everyone by crushing BYU. They have allowed more than seven points in only two games (Oklahoma loss, 31-14 win over Stanford). The competition, however, has been less than stiff.
21. Boston College (AP #23) – It could be a virtual tossup between GT, BC, and VT. Boston College beat Virginia Tech, but lost to Georgia Tech. Naturally, Virginia Tech beat Georgia Tech.
22. Virginia Tech (AP #27) – See above, but throw in a disappointing loss to East Carolina.
23. South Florida (AP #14) - Overrated in my book. A close early season win over Kansas is all that’s keeping them in the rankings.
24. Ball State (AP #20) – They do have a win over Navy, and at 7-0 they deserve a little bit of recognition. Their last two games (Central Michigan, Western Michigan) will be their hardest.
25. Kansas (AP #19) – Because there’s no one else, except maybe for Florida State.
Dropped out:
BYU – Some impressive scorelines, but against absolutely no competition. The demolition by TCU left no reason for them to be in the Top 25
Cal – Lost at Arizona (who lost to Stanford and New Mexico earlier this year) 42-27.
Oregon – Idle last week, but the OT win over a now-slumping Purdue didn’t seem reason enough to ignore the blowout loss to USC and close loss to Boise State.
North Carolina – Already on thin ice as it was, OT loss to Virginia shoved them out.
2. Alabama AP #2) – Alabama seems to lose focus in the second half. They have allowed their last three opponents to crawl back into games after staking big first half leads. Tennessee will give them everything they have in another huge rivalry game.
3. Penn State (AP #3) – The good: Penn State has scored 38 points or more in every contest except one (20-6 win over Purdue) and allowed more than 17 points only once (38-24 win over Illinois). The bad: Penn State’s best wins are over Oregon State and Illinois. Their last three Big Ten opponents have a combined one conference win. Penn State may not be ready for a slugfest with Ohio State this weekend.
4. Florida (AP #5) – Still dangerous with Tebow at the helm. The Gators will have to be careful not to overlook Kentucky, with Georgia looming around the corner.
5. USC (AP #6) – Everyone seems to have forgotten the OSU demolition derby in the wake of USC’s Oregon State loss. Without a single true ‘test’ remaining, USC could sneak into the BCS title game amidst the SEC and Big 12 cannibalization.
6. Oklahoma (AP #4) – Maybe I was wrong about TCU being a ‘cake’ win. However, the defense is still a concern for Oklahoma.
7. Georgia (AP #9) – Georgia is still lacking that marquee win, but will have an excellent opportunity to get one when they travel to Baton Rouge this weekend to face LSU.
8. Ohio State (AP #10) – Is Ohio State this good, or was Michigan State that bad? The Spartans may have lied down a little at the end of that game, but the scoreline is impressive nonetheless. While I don’t expect Ohio State to make it all the way back to the BCS title game, a win over Penn State this weekend could ensure them a Rose Bowl berth.
9. Oklahoma State (AP #7) – Oklahoma State’s party could be over. Texas is coming to town, and if history is any indication, it won’t be pretty. Other than their win over Missouri, Oklahoma State has yet to face a reputable team.
10. LSU (AP #11) – The Tigers gutted out a tough road win at South Carolina after enduring a beatdown at the hands of the Gators. As mentioned above, this weekend is key game, as Georgia comes to Death Valley.
11. Utah (AP #12) – To be honest, I struggled with finding a team qualified for this ranking. Utah seems to have the best resume, with a couple of decent wins (Oregon State, Air Force) and no losses. Utah still has to play TCU and BYU, so if they win those games, Utah will be hard to ignore.
12. Missouri (AP #16) – Sure, they got crushed by Texas, but how many of these teams further down this list could hang with the Longhorns? I may be acting overly generous here, but until Texas Tech beats Missouri, I won’t rank Missouri behind them.
13. Texas Tech (AP #8) – When your best win is in overtime against Nebraska, it’s going to take awhile for me to warm up to you. Like I mentioned last week, four straight games against ranked teams will give the Red Raiders all the chances the need to make a statement.
14. Boise State (AP #13) – Boise State is clinging to that Oregon win, because it’s the only thing that will keep them afloat in the rankings for the rest of the season. A single loss will probably see them fall out of the top 25.
15. Pitt (AP #17) – A dark horse of sorts since losing their opener to Bowling Green, Pitt has slowly crept back into the thick of the race. Their early season win over Iowa is looking a little better, and even last week’s win over Navy is better than several teams ahead of them can claim.
16. Vanderbilt (AP #28)– Hanging with a top five or ten team shouldn’t plummet a team in the rankings, so I’ll leave Vanderbilt in roughly the same spot after they lost to Georgia last week.
17. Tulsa (AP #22) – Any team that scores 77 points has to be considered dangerous. Tulsa only has one game left against a team with a winning record (Houston) so I don’t expect Tulsa to improve its position.
18. Michigan State (AP #29) – Why the polls have Michigan State out of the ranking but Northwestern in the top 25 is beyond me, especially when you consider that Michigan State already beat Northwestern. Handily.
19. Georgia Tech (AP #21) – Georgia Tech may be taking steps to prove itself as the ACC front-runner. However, their remaining schedule is pretty brutal, as all five opponents have winning records.
20. TCU (AP #15) – TCU surprised everyone by crushing BYU. They have allowed more than seven points in only two games (Oklahoma loss, 31-14 win over Stanford). The competition, however, has been less than stiff.
21. Boston College (AP #23) – It could be a virtual tossup between GT, BC, and VT. Boston College beat Virginia Tech, but lost to Georgia Tech. Naturally, Virginia Tech beat Georgia Tech.
22. Virginia Tech (AP #27) – See above, but throw in a disappointing loss to East Carolina.
23. South Florida (AP #14) - Overrated in my book. A close early season win over Kansas is all that’s keeping them in the rankings.
24. Ball State (AP #20) – They do have a win over Navy, and at 7-0 they deserve a little bit of recognition. Their last two games (Central Michigan, Western Michigan) will be their hardest.
25. Kansas (AP #19) – Because there’s no one else, except maybe for Florida State.
Dropped out:
BYU – Some impressive scorelines, but against absolutely no competition. The demolition by TCU left no reason for them to be in the Top 25
Cal – Lost at Arizona (who lost to Stanford and New Mexico earlier this year) 42-27.
Oregon – Idle last week, but the OT win over a now-slumping Purdue didn’t seem reason enough to ignore the blowout loss to USC and close loss to Boise State.
North Carolina – Already on thin ice as it was, OT loss to Virginia shoved them out.
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
College Football Rankings
At their very core, polls and ranking are incredibly meaningless. Most teams move up only if the team in front of them loses. It a team loses, they fall below every other team with the same number of losses. Generally, a team ranked in the top 5 that goes undefeated will have a much easier time reaching the national championship than an unranked team that goes undefeated.
To make matters worse, these polls comprise the majority of the formula that selects the two participants for the national championship game. My main problem is that voters are simply illogical. For example, after Florida lost to Ole Miss a couple of weeks ago, they moved out of the top ten and fell behind South Florida. In what world is South Florida a better team than Florida? Naturally, South Florida lost their next game, dropped in the rankings and order was restored.
I'll attempt to take a slightly more logical approach here - combining record, performance and strength of schedule.
1. Alabama (AP #2) - I was down on Alabama before the season started, but as one of only five remaining undefeated BCS schools, Alabama has done the most to distinguish itself. The demolition of Clemson looks less and less impressive, but Alabama was absolutely clinical in dismantling Georgia. The Tide won't have another true test until 11/8 @LSU.
2. Penn State (AP #3) - Also undefeated, Penn State hasn't really been pushed, including an impressive 48-7 win over Wisconsin. Nittany Lions fans have October 25 circled on their calenders - when Penn State travels to Columbus to face the Buckeyes.
3. Texas (AP #1) - The win over Oklahoma was nice, but Texas hasn't played any other decent teams this season. With its next two games at home against Missouri and Oklahoma State, I will certainly be willing to bump them up if they give impressive performances.
4. Florida (AP #5) - Anytime you beat the defending champions by 30 points, people have to take you seriously. The Gators are prone to their share of inconsistency (see: Ole Miss) but they have the talent to match up with any team in the country.
5. Georgia (AP #10) - The Bulldogs had one bad half, but after watching them dominate Tennessee, I'm a believer. Sure, most teams could dominate Tennessee at this point, but the combination of Stafford and Moreno is tough to beat. Three consecutive games against ranked SEC opponents (Vanderbilt, @LSU, Florida) will tell the story for this team.
6. USC (AP #6) - USC will always have one or two letdowns a year, but it's hard to argue that teams like Oklahoma State and Texas Tech are better than USC. Outside of their surprising loss at Oregon State, USC has allowed a total of only 20 points in their four wins.
7. Oklahoma (AP #4) - The Sooners best win thus far has come against TCU, which isn't saying very much. Kansas will provide a tougher test this weekend, but without Missouri on the schedule, Oklahoma should breeze to an 11-1 record without much effort, even with games against Texas Tech and Oklahoma State.
8. Oklahoma State (AP #8) - They sure don't play much defense. OK State actually allowed more points against Troy and Texas A&M than they did against Missouri, so it remains to be seen if Oklahoma State is for real. A trip to Texas in two weeks should shed some light.
9. Missouri (AP #11) - Like Oklahoma State next week, Missouri faces a huge test against Texas this weekend. The win over Illinois is nice on their resume, because it's pretty barren otherwise. After Texas, Missouri has four consecutive games against the Big 12 'have-nots' so regardless of what happens against Texas, they'll probably end up back in the Top Ten.
10. LSU (AP #13) - Perhaps hard to justify ranking the Tigers here after they were so thoroughly dominated by Florida, but I couldn't in good conscience rank them behind unproven commodities like Utah and BYU. The defending national champs deserve a little bit of leeway, but games against Georgia and Alabama in the next month will ultimately decide their fate.
11. Michigan State (AP #20) - I'm somewhat surprised that Michigan State is ranked so low in the polls. They lost a tight one at Cal to start the season and have flown under the radar since then, with their only notable win a thrashing of Notre Dame. However, Javon Ringer is a true game-breaker for them. The Spartans host Ohio State this weekend, so we'll see if my opinion is justified.
12. Texas Tech (AP #7) - I'm not ready to completely respect Texas Tech. Their best win is over Kansas State, and they need overtime to beat Nebraska. Unfortunately for them, the hard part of their schedule is just beginning. Kansas, Texas, OK State, and Oklahoma await.
13. Utah (AP #14) - They are 7-0 with wins over Michigan and Oregon State, both of whom have pulled off some surprising wins of their own. They have arguably a better resume than Texas Tech, but I don't feel like changing it now.
14. BYU (AP #9) - Like Utah, undefeated. However, they lack any signature wins. Washington and UCLA don't carry the same weight as Utah's wins.
15. Ohio State (AP #12) - Maybe I'm being too hard on the Buckeyes, but they will have the chance to change public perception with upcoming back-to-back tough games against Michigan State and Penn State. For what it's worth, their best win is...Minnesota.
16. Boise State (AP #15) - Boise State boasts a nice road win over Oregon, but unfortunately there is little else to base their performance. With only three remaining games against teams with winning records (and hardly intimidating teams at that - San Jose State, Fresno State, and New Mexico State) it is safe to assume that we'll know as much about Boise State at the end of the season as we do now.
17. Vanderbilt (AP #22) - Ok, the SEC Bias is showing a little on this one. However, three SEC wins, including the pressure-packed win over Auburn, should be enough to earn their place in the top 25. Their performance at Georgia this weekend will show their true colors. A close loss might even move them up in my rankings.
18. Virginia Tech (AP #17) - The Hokies have quietly reeled off 5 straight wins, including Georgia Tech and North Carolina, since being shocked at home by East Carolina.
19. Cal (AP #25) - Close win over Michigan State to start the season has been overshadowed by their loss at schizophrenic Maryland. They also handled Arizona State two weeks ago.
20. Oregon (AP #33) - With two losses (USC, Boise St) Oregon is not receiving much love right now. They do have a road win over Purdue, and with upcoming road games at Arizona State and Cal, Oregon will have a chance to make a name for themselves.
21. Tulsa (AP #26) - Tulsa could be this year's Hawaii. They have scored 37 points or more in each of their six victories, although they have only held teams to under 20 points one time. Working against them is the fact that they have yet to beat a team with a winning record, but from here on out they only play two more teams with losing records. A trip to Arkansas could give them a 'name' win, even though Arkansas is lower-tier SEC team right now.
22. South Florida (AP #19) - They were shocked at home by Pitt, but South Florida carries a win over Kansas on its resume. They should challenge for the Big East title, but is that saying much?
23. Kansas (AP #16) - Kansas has made a living beating up on cupcake schools. Their best win is at home against Colorado, and they failed to score a 'big' win at South Florida. Back-to-back games against Oklahoma and Texas Tech will likely see the Jayhawks exposed as pretenders.
24. Pitt (AP #23) - Similar to Virginia Tech, Pitt has won four in a row since blowing their home opener to Bowling Green. Other than the South Florida win, though, their resume is pretty thin.
25. North Carolina (AP #18) - I'll be honest, I have no idea which ACC teams are good and which aren't. Right now, there are six ACC teams with only one loss. So this spot could just as easily go to Wake Forest or Georgia Tech.
Others receiving consideration - South Carolina, Cincinnati, Ball State, Georgia Tech, Minnesota, Wake Forest
To make matters worse, these polls comprise the majority of the formula that selects the two participants for the national championship game. My main problem is that voters are simply illogical. For example, after Florida lost to Ole Miss a couple of weeks ago, they moved out of the top ten and fell behind South Florida. In what world is South Florida a better team than Florida? Naturally, South Florida lost their next game, dropped in the rankings and order was restored.
I'll attempt to take a slightly more logical approach here - combining record, performance and strength of schedule.
1. Alabama (AP #2) - I was down on Alabama before the season started, but as one of only five remaining undefeated BCS schools, Alabama has done the most to distinguish itself. The demolition of Clemson looks less and less impressive, but Alabama was absolutely clinical in dismantling Georgia. The Tide won't have another true test until 11/8 @LSU.
2. Penn State (AP #3) - Also undefeated, Penn State hasn't really been pushed, including an impressive 48-7 win over Wisconsin. Nittany Lions fans have October 25 circled on their calenders - when Penn State travels to Columbus to face the Buckeyes.
3. Texas (AP #1) - The win over Oklahoma was nice, but Texas hasn't played any other decent teams this season. With its next two games at home against Missouri and Oklahoma State, I will certainly be willing to bump them up if they give impressive performances.
4. Florida (AP #5) - Anytime you beat the defending champions by 30 points, people have to take you seriously. The Gators are prone to their share of inconsistency (see: Ole Miss) but they have the talent to match up with any team in the country.
5. Georgia (AP #10) - The Bulldogs had one bad half, but after watching them dominate Tennessee, I'm a believer. Sure, most teams could dominate Tennessee at this point, but the combination of Stafford and Moreno is tough to beat. Three consecutive games against ranked SEC opponents (Vanderbilt, @LSU, Florida) will tell the story for this team.
6. USC (AP #6) - USC will always have one or two letdowns a year, but it's hard to argue that teams like Oklahoma State and Texas Tech are better than USC. Outside of their surprising loss at Oregon State, USC has allowed a total of only 20 points in their four wins.
7. Oklahoma (AP #4) - The Sooners best win thus far has come against TCU, which isn't saying very much. Kansas will provide a tougher test this weekend, but without Missouri on the schedule, Oklahoma should breeze to an 11-1 record without much effort, even with games against Texas Tech and Oklahoma State.
8. Oklahoma State (AP #8) - They sure don't play much defense. OK State actually allowed more points against Troy and Texas A&M than they did against Missouri, so it remains to be seen if Oklahoma State is for real. A trip to Texas in two weeks should shed some light.
9. Missouri (AP #11) - Like Oklahoma State next week, Missouri faces a huge test against Texas this weekend. The win over Illinois is nice on their resume, because it's pretty barren otherwise. After Texas, Missouri has four consecutive games against the Big 12 'have-nots' so regardless of what happens against Texas, they'll probably end up back in the Top Ten.
10. LSU (AP #13) - Perhaps hard to justify ranking the Tigers here after they were so thoroughly dominated by Florida, but I couldn't in good conscience rank them behind unproven commodities like Utah and BYU. The defending national champs deserve a little bit of leeway, but games against Georgia and Alabama in the next month will ultimately decide their fate.
11. Michigan State (AP #20) - I'm somewhat surprised that Michigan State is ranked so low in the polls. They lost a tight one at Cal to start the season and have flown under the radar since then, with their only notable win a thrashing of Notre Dame. However, Javon Ringer is a true game-breaker for them. The Spartans host Ohio State this weekend, so we'll see if my opinion is justified.
12. Texas Tech (AP #7) - I'm not ready to completely respect Texas Tech. Their best win is over Kansas State, and they need overtime to beat Nebraska. Unfortunately for them, the hard part of their schedule is just beginning. Kansas, Texas, OK State, and Oklahoma await.
13. Utah (AP #14) - They are 7-0 with wins over Michigan and Oregon State, both of whom have pulled off some surprising wins of their own. They have arguably a better resume than Texas Tech, but I don't feel like changing it now.
14. BYU (AP #9) - Like Utah, undefeated. However, they lack any signature wins. Washington and UCLA don't carry the same weight as Utah's wins.
15. Ohio State (AP #12) - Maybe I'm being too hard on the Buckeyes, but they will have the chance to change public perception with upcoming back-to-back tough games against Michigan State and Penn State. For what it's worth, their best win is...Minnesota.
16. Boise State (AP #15) - Boise State boasts a nice road win over Oregon, but unfortunately there is little else to base their performance. With only three remaining games against teams with winning records (and hardly intimidating teams at that - San Jose State, Fresno State, and New Mexico State) it is safe to assume that we'll know as much about Boise State at the end of the season as we do now.
17. Vanderbilt (AP #22) - Ok, the SEC Bias is showing a little on this one. However, three SEC wins, including the pressure-packed win over Auburn, should be enough to earn their place in the top 25. Their performance at Georgia this weekend will show their true colors. A close loss might even move them up in my rankings.
18. Virginia Tech (AP #17) - The Hokies have quietly reeled off 5 straight wins, including Georgia Tech and North Carolina, since being shocked at home by East Carolina.
19. Cal (AP #25) - Close win over Michigan State to start the season has been overshadowed by their loss at schizophrenic Maryland. They also handled Arizona State two weeks ago.
20. Oregon (AP #33) - With two losses (USC, Boise St) Oregon is not receiving much love right now. They do have a road win over Purdue, and with upcoming road games at Arizona State and Cal, Oregon will have a chance to make a name for themselves.
21. Tulsa (AP #26) - Tulsa could be this year's Hawaii. They have scored 37 points or more in each of their six victories, although they have only held teams to under 20 points one time. Working against them is the fact that they have yet to beat a team with a winning record, but from here on out they only play two more teams with losing records. A trip to Arkansas could give them a 'name' win, even though Arkansas is lower-tier SEC team right now.
22. South Florida (AP #19) - They were shocked at home by Pitt, but South Florida carries a win over Kansas on its resume. They should challenge for the Big East title, but is that saying much?
23. Kansas (AP #16) - Kansas has made a living beating up on cupcake schools. Their best win is at home against Colorado, and they failed to score a 'big' win at South Florida. Back-to-back games against Oklahoma and Texas Tech will likely see the Jayhawks exposed as pretenders.
24. Pitt (AP #23) - Similar to Virginia Tech, Pitt has won four in a row since blowing their home opener to Bowling Green. Other than the South Florida win, though, their resume is pretty thin.
25. North Carolina (AP #18) - I'll be honest, I have no idea which ACC teams are good and which aren't. Right now, there are six ACC teams with only one loss. So this spot could just as easily go to Wake Forest or Georgia Tech.
Others receiving consideration - South Carolina, Cincinnati, Ball State, Georgia Tech, Minnesota, Wake Forest
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
Refuting the Illogical
Look, I understand that controversy sells. Say something that is blatantly wrong with enough brashness and you know that you will annoy anyone with common sense. There’s really nothing like saying something idiotic (The sun is blue!) and then refusing the listen to any logical arguments to the contrary.
I give you the case of one Gregg Easterbrook. The guys has basically made his living doing this, but last week he went a step further and claimed that Eli Manning was now a better quarterback than Peyton Manning. Seriously?
Here is one example: “Well, ponder this: Eli Manning is now a better quarterback than Peyton Manning. At the current rate, his career achievements will at least match, and perhaps surpass, his big brother's.”
What career achievements? The only comparable career achievement is Super Bowl wins: Both have one. So yes, if you extrapolate that over Eli’s career, statistically Eli might end up with more. But other than that, I don’t see how the two are anywhere close to comparable. And keep in mind that quarterbacks like Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson have also won Super Bowls.
Mr. Easterbrook claims that “[i]n terms of passing stats, the two players are approximately the same”. Really? Let’s take a deeper look into these approximately similar stats. For comparison’s sake, let’s throw out both players’ rookie season (Peyton’s was much better, by the way).
After his rookie season, Peyton rolled off six straight 4000+ yard seasons, with his QB rating never dropping below 84. In Eli’s first three full seasons (including last season’s Super Bowl win) his highest QB rating was 77 and his highest passing total was 3762.
In Peyton’s entire career, he has never averaged less than 7.0 yards per attempt in a season. Eli’s best average was 6.8 yards per attempt. In each of Peyton’s first three non-rookie seasons, he completed 62% of his passes. Since those three seasons, he has not dropped below 65%. Eli has yet to approach 60% in any season.
In Peyton’s entire career (again, excluding rookie season) he has thrown more than 15 interceptions only twice. Eli has already done it three times, in each of his first three full seasons.
These differences might seem insignificant, but when every Peyton Manning pass goes for an average of 1.5 yards further and he completes maybe three or four more passes per game (given the same number of throws) that is a pretty huge advantage. Throw in Peyton’s clear decision-making advantage and the intangible benefits of his vast knowledge of the offensive playbook and audibles, and Peyton is giving his team a significant advantage every time he steps on the field.
While it’s true that Peyton did not win any playoff games until his sixth season, he did lead the Colts into the playoffs in his second and third seasons. Eli achieved the same feat, leading the Giants into the playoffs in his second and third seasons. What people seem to forget is that since Peyton Manning took over as quarterback, the Colts have missed the playoffs only twice, and not since 2001.
What the Giants did last season was amazing, and Eli has played well this season (with the exception of last night’s bed-crapping against the Browns) but can you really argue that Eli is a better quarterback than Peyton? I mean, he didn’t even make the Pro Bowl last year and his team won the Super Bowl! That should say something about how good Eli is.
I’m not saying that Eli Manning won’t turn out to be a good quarterback, but based on what we’ve seen from him so far, I think it’s a little early to declare that he’ll have a better career than a guy who is without question one of the top quarterbacks of the last decade, if not the best.
(Note: In today's article, Mr. Easterbrook made no reference to the fact that his new golden child just threw 3 picks in a terrible loss to the Browns, while Peyton Manning had another stellar, mistake-free game as the Colts trounced Baltimore 31-3)
I give you the case of one Gregg Easterbrook. The guys has basically made his living doing this, but last week he went a step further and claimed that Eli Manning was now a better quarterback than Peyton Manning. Seriously?
Here is one example: “Well, ponder this: Eli Manning is now a better quarterback than Peyton Manning. At the current rate, his career achievements will at least match, and perhaps surpass, his big brother's.”
What career achievements? The only comparable career achievement is Super Bowl wins: Both have one. So yes, if you extrapolate that over Eli’s career, statistically Eli might end up with more. But other than that, I don’t see how the two are anywhere close to comparable. And keep in mind that quarterbacks like Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson have also won Super Bowls.
Mr. Easterbrook claims that “[i]n terms of passing stats, the two players are approximately the same”. Really? Let’s take a deeper look into these approximately similar stats. For comparison’s sake, let’s throw out both players’ rookie season (Peyton’s was much better, by the way).
After his rookie season, Peyton rolled off six straight 4000+ yard seasons, with his QB rating never dropping below 84. In Eli’s first three full seasons (including last season’s Super Bowl win) his highest QB rating was 77 and his highest passing total was 3762.
In Peyton’s entire career, he has never averaged less than 7.0 yards per attempt in a season. Eli’s best average was 6.8 yards per attempt. In each of Peyton’s first three non-rookie seasons, he completed 62% of his passes. Since those three seasons, he has not dropped below 65%. Eli has yet to approach 60% in any season.
In Peyton’s entire career (again, excluding rookie season) he has thrown more than 15 interceptions only twice. Eli has already done it three times, in each of his first three full seasons.
These differences might seem insignificant, but when every Peyton Manning pass goes for an average of 1.5 yards further and he completes maybe three or four more passes per game (given the same number of throws) that is a pretty huge advantage. Throw in Peyton’s clear decision-making advantage and the intangible benefits of his vast knowledge of the offensive playbook and audibles, and Peyton is giving his team a significant advantage every time he steps on the field.
While it’s true that Peyton did not win any playoff games until his sixth season, he did lead the Colts into the playoffs in his second and third seasons. Eli achieved the same feat, leading the Giants into the playoffs in his second and third seasons. What people seem to forget is that since Peyton Manning took over as quarterback, the Colts have missed the playoffs only twice, and not since 2001.
What the Giants did last season was amazing, and Eli has played well this season (with the exception of last night’s bed-crapping against the Browns) but can you really argue that Eli is a better quarterback than Peyton? I mean, he didn’t even make the Pro Bowl last year and his team won the Super Bowl! That should say something about how good Eli is.
I’m not saying that Eli Manning won’t turn out to be a good quarterback, but based on what we’ve seen from him so far, I think it’s a little early to declare that he’ll have a better career than a guy who is without question one of the top quarterbacks of the last decade, if not the best.
(Note: In today's article, Mr. Easterbrook made no reference to the fact that his new golden child just threw 3 picks in a terrible loss to the Browns, while Peyton Manning had another stellar, mistake-free game as the Colts trounced Baltimore 31-3)
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
Long Live the Fighting Nerds!
Congratulations Vanderbilt – you finally did it…
It’s been a long time coming, but Vanderbilt is finally establishing itself as a decent football team. Thanks to their 5-0 record and the nationally televised win over Auburn, the Commodores have rocketed up the rankings to #13 in the AP poll. Many of the computer rankings that are used to calculate the BCS rankings have them ever higher. It’s a virtual lock that they will qualify for a bowl (thanks to a home game against Duke), and at this point, it’s entirely feasible that Vanderbilt could win 8 or 9 games. Or is it…?
Does anyone remember the rapid ascension of South Carolina and Kentucky in last year’s polls? By week seven, the two teams were ranked #6 and #8, respectively, in AP Poll. The following week, both teams suffered losses that sent them into a downward spiral. Kentucky would then lose three of its next four to finish 7-5 before rallying to win its bowl game against a depleted Florida State, while South Carolina lost its next four to finish 6-6 and didn’t even go to a bowl.
Apparently Las Vegas is not convinced that the ‘Dores are for real either. Vanderbilt is currently a 3 point underdog in its road trip to Mississippi State, although the line did open at Even. With upcoming games against Georgia, Tennessee and Florida, not to mention road trips to Kentucky and a ranked Wake Forest team, Vanderbilt’s run may be at an end. They’ll certainly have the opportunity to make their case, but talk about Vanderbilt being an SEC ‘contender’ needs to stop right now. If they beat Georgia next week, then we’ll talk…
A few other lines worth noting:
Clemson at Wake Forest: -2.5
Clemson has been struggling lately, but they destroyed Wake Forest last year 44-10. Wake Forest isn’t exactly playing its best football, as they’re coming off of an embarrassing home loss to Navy.
Tennessee at Georgia: -13
Tennessee absolutely dismantled Georgia in their last meeting. The game was a mirror image of last week’s Georgia-Alabama game, when Tennessee raced to a 35-0 lead. I don’t expect that too happen this week, though, especially with all instability at the QB position. One thing to keep in mind: Tennessee’s defense is underrated. In fact, no team has gained over 300 yards of total offense against the Vols, despite their three losses.
LSU at Florida: -4
Florida is coming off a disappointing loss that exposed them as a two-man team (Tebow and Percy Harvin). LSU hasn’t really wowed anyone, which some might find surprising considering their #4 ranking. However, close wins over Mississippi State and an overrated Auburn team clearly haven’t impressed Vegas.
Penn State at Wisconsin: +5
The Great Nittany Hope of the Big Ten is a deserved favorite. Wisconsin is coming off of back to back heartbreakers against Michigan and Ohio State, while Penn State has been nothing short of spectacular. Their upcoming three-game stretch (Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio State) could cement their status as top dawg. I expect Penn State to handle the Badgers, but they’ve disappointed before…
Arkansas at Auburn: -19.5
Auburn can barely score 19 points if you give them two games, so I’m skeptical that they could beat anyone with a pulse (ie not LA-Monroe) by more than 19 points. Arkansas is pretty gawd-awful, though, and could be just what the doctor ordered for the Tigers’ ailing offense.
It’s been a long time coming, but Vanderbilt is finally establishing itself as a decent football team. Thanks to their 5-0 record and the nationally televised win over Auburn, the Commodores have rocketed up the rankings to #13 in the AP poll. Many of the computer rankings that are used to calculate the BCS rankings have them ever higher. It’s a virtual lock that they will qualify for a bowl (thanks to a home game against Duke), and at this point, it’s entirely feasible that Vanderbilt could win 8 or 9 games. Or is it…?
Does anyone remember the rapid ascension of South Carolina and Kentucky in last year’s polls? By week seven, the two teams were ranked #6 and #8, respectively, in AP Poll. The following week, both teams suffered losses that sent them into a downward spiral. Kentucky would then lose three of its next four to finish 7-5 before rallying to win its bowl game against a depleted Florida State, while South Carolina lost its next four to finish 6-6 and didn’t even go to a bowl.
Apparently Las Vegas is not convinced that the ‘Dores are for real either. Vanderbilt is currently a 3 point underdog in its road trip to Mississippi State, although the line did open at Even. With upcoming games against Georgia, Tennessee and Florida, not to mention road trips to Kentucky and a ranked Wake Forest team, Vanderbilt’s run may be at an end. They’ll certainly have the opportunity to make their case, but talk about Vanderbilt being an SEC ‘contender’ needs to stop right now. If they beat Georgia next week, then we’ll talk…
A few other lines worth noting:
Clemson at Wake Forest: -2.5
Clemson has been struggling lately, but they destroyed Wake Forest last year 44-10. Wake Forest isn’t exactly playing its best football, as they’re coming off of an embarrassing home loss to Navy.
Tennessee at Georgia: -13
Tennessee absolutely dismantled Georgia in their last meeting. The game was a mirror image of last week’s Georgia-Alabama game, when Tennessee raced to a 35-0 lead. I don’t expect that too happen this week, though, especially with all instability at the QB position. One thing to keep in mind: Tennessee’s defense is underrated. In fact, no team has gained over 300 yards of total offense against the Vols, despite their three losses.
LSU at Florida: -4
Florida is coming off a disappointing loss that exposed them as a two-man team (Tebow and Percy Harvin). LSU hasn’t really wowed anyone, which some might find surprising considering their #4 ranking. However, close wins over Mississippi State and an overrated Auburn team clearly haven’t impressed Vegas.
Penn State at Wisconsin: +5
The Great Nittany Hope of the Big Ten is a deserved favorite. Wisconsin is coming off of back to back heartbreakers against Michigan and Ohio State, while Penn State has been nothing short of spectacular. Their upcoming three-game stretch (Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio State) could cement their status as top dawg. I expect Penn State to handle the Badgers, but they’ve disappointed before…
Arkansas at Auburn: -19.5
Auburn can barely score 19 points if you give them two games, so I’m skeptical that they could beat anyone with a pulse (ie not LA-Monroe) by more than 19 points. Arkansas is pretty gawd-awful, though, and could be just what the doctor ordered for the Tigers’ ailing offense.
Saturday, September 27, 2008
Tennessee-Auburn Second Half
And let’s start up the second half!
15:00 – Auburn takes over on its own 20 after a touchback. They just flashed the passing numbers for the first half. Pretty paltry on both sides.
13:35 – Tennessee sack by Ben Martin! Auburn will have to punt after a three-and-out. The Vols will take over at their 35.
10:45 – Despite getting one first down (thanks to a penalty) Tennessee will have to punt at midfield. Nice punt! Downed at the three yard line. Maybe Auburn will fumble into their own end zone…
9:56 – I hate how the Auburn offense all stands up on the line of scrimmage and looks over to the coaches. It just looks weird…
8:50 – Nice defensive sequence, and Auburn goes nowhere. Auburns punts from their own end zone and it’s downed at Auburn’s 45. If Tennessee can’t do anything with this field position, they don’t deserve to win.
7:30 – Arian Foster is stopped just short of a first down on third down. Tennessee will punt from the Auburn 36. Lame… But, the punt goes out at the Auburn 3, so basically we’ll just repeat the last Auburn drive.
6:30 – So much for that theory. Auburn gets back to back first downs and Auburn is out to the 30. Chris Todd was able to complete a lob pass that should have been picked off at the ten yard line.
5:30 – Great…a QB scramble for a first down, followed by a personal foul out-of-bounds hit. Auburn is now on Tennessee’s 45.
4:30 – Chris Todd has all day to throw, but it’s picked off!! Dennis Rogan takes it all the way to the Auburn 37!
3:50 – The UT offense is just woeful. Back-to-back rushes net a loss of four yards. 3rd and 14.
3:08 – Ohh! Crompton scrambles and gets a first down, but he forgets to slide and gets nailed. Tennessee is within field goal range, but they need a touchdown.
1:50 – Gerald Jones has moves. Out of the G-Gun, he runs all the way across the field and back and nearly gets a first down on what should have been a loss.
1:00 – After a personal foul facemask penalty, Tennessee has first and goal.
0:00 – The third quarter ends, with Tennessee facing a third and goal on the two yard. Phillip Fulmer will have a little extra time to come up with a play here. Not that Hardesty up the middle will take him much time to come up with…
14:55 – Touchdown Hardesty!! Sweep left, and Hardesty outruns Auburn to the corner of the end zone. Tennessee decides to go for two, but Auburn sniffs it out. Auburn leads 14-12. I’d like to think they could have come up with a better play than a pass that doesn’t even go into the end zone on the two-point try. If Auburn scores another touchdown, Tennessee will be down two scores, but a UT field goal would still take the lead.
14:00 – Auburn faces a critical third and four. Bad pass, and Auburn will punt from their 35 yardline. Even if it had been completed, Tennessee probably would have stopped them short of the marker.
13:30 – Gerald Jones on the return! He takes it all the way to the Auburn 38. It looked like he signaled for a fair catch, but maybe he was just blocking the sun.
12:30 – Good defense by Auburn. Tennessee can do nothing, and they actually lose yards. A dropped screen pass hurt them, and once again the offense sputters. Tennessee decides to punt and Auburn takes over at their 11 after a fair catch. What a wasted opportunity…
11:00 – Both teams are looking poor offensively. Auburn faces third and long after Tennessee blows up a toss play.
10:50 – Auburn completes the pass, but it’s well short of the first down. Expect another punt here… and Gerald Jones returns it to the 42.
9:00 – Third and four, and another terrible Crompton pass. The throw goes well out of bounds, and once again Tennessee will have to punt after another three and out. They really need to take advantage of this field position at some point…
7:45 – This is one of the worst games I’ve ever watched. Auburn will punt on 4th and 18, after another three and out. Maybe these teams should get points for punts. The punt is downed on Auburn’s 45 yard line. This is starting to feel like déjà vu…
6:10 – You have got to be %#%@ kidding me. Tennessee fails again on third down. Another punt, and Auburn takes over on the 20.
5:55 – Burns is back in at quarterback for Auburn. He can scramble, but doesn’t seem to throw very well.
4:40 – Burns runs on three straight plays for negative yards, and once again Tennessee will get the ball back. The Vols take over near midfield.
3:20 – Crompton’s numbers for the day: 8/22 for 67 yards. Needless to say, Tennessee goes three and out after the pressure rattles Crompton on second and third down. I have no more adjectives to describe the shittiness that I am witnessing. Cunningham is Tennessee’s MVP right now, and his punt is downed on the five yard line.
2:14 – Auburn faces a third and five after a nice run by Mario Fannin to avoid losing yardage. A first down here might win the game for Auburn. Timeout on the field…
2:14 (still) – Did Tennessee just call back to back timeouts? I’m confused…If so, that is beyond stupid…
2:00 – And Auburn converts… This must be game over…Tennessee is out of timeouts. Nice pass by Burns, and I think that’s Auburn’s only first down of the quarter.
0:00 – Auburn kneels down, and that’s it. No additional comments needed. Just awful...
15:00 – Auburn takes over on its own 20 after a touchback. They just flashed the passing numbers for the first half. Pretty paltry on both sides.
13:35 – Tennessee sack by Ben Martin! Auburn will have to punt after a three-and-out. The Vols will take over at their 35.
10:45 – Despite getting one first down (thanks to a penalty) Tennessee will have to punt at midfield. Nice punt! Downed at the three yard line. Maybe Auburn will fumble into their own end zone…
9:56 – I hate how the Auburn offense all stands up on the line of scrimmage and looks over to the coaches. It just looks weird…
8:50 – Nice defensive sequence, and Auburn goes nowhere. Auburns punts from their own end zone and it’s downed at Auburn’s 45. If Tennessee can’t do anything with this field position, they don’t deserve to win.
7:30 – Arian Foster is stopped just short of a first down on third down. Tennessee will punt from the Auburn 36. Lame… But, the punt goes out at the Auburn 3, so basically we’ll just repeat the last Auburn drive.
6:30 – So much for that theory. Auburn gets back to back first downs and Auburn is out to the 30. Chris Todd was able to complete a lob pass that should have been picked off at the ten yard line.
5:30 – Great…a QB scramble for a first down, followed by a personal foul out-of-bounds hit. Auburn is now on Tennessee’s 45.
4:30 – Chris Todd has all day to throw, but it’s picked off!! Dennis Rogan takes it all the way to the Auburn 37!
3:50 – The UT offense is just woeful. Back-to-back rushes net a loss of four yards. 3rd and 14.
3:08 – Ohh! Crompton scrambles and gets a first down, but he forgets to slide and gets nailed. Tennessee is within field goal range, but they need a touchdown.
1:50 – Gerald Jones has moves. Out of the G-Gun, he runs all the way across the field and back and nearly gets a first down on what should have been a loss.
1:00 – After a personal foul facemask penalty, Tennessee has first and goal.
0:00 – The third quarter ends, with Tennessee facing a third and goal on the two yard. Phillip Fulmer will have a little extra time to come up with a play here. Not that Hardesty up the middle will take him much time to come up with…
14:55 – Touchdown Hardesty!! Sweep left, and Hardesty outruns Auburn to the corner of the end zone. Tennessee decides to go for two, but Auburn sniffs it out. Auburn leads 14-12. I’d like to think they could have come up with a better play than a pass that doesn’t even go into the end zone on the two-point try. If Auburn scores another touchdown, Tennessee will be down two scores, but a UT field goal would still take the lead.
14:00 – Auburn faces a critical third and four. Bad pass, and Auburn will punt from their 35 yardline. Even if it had been completed, Tennessee probably would have stopped them short of the marker.
13:30 – Gerald Jones on the return! He takes it all the way to the Auburn 38. It looked like he signaled for a fair catch, but maybe he was just blocking the sun.
12:30 – Good defense by Auburn. Tennessee can do nothing, and they actually lose yards. A dropped screen pass hurt them, and once again the offense sputters. Tennessee decides to punt and Auburn takes over at their 11 after a fair catch. What a wasted opportunity…
11:00 – Both teams are looking poor offensively. Auburn faces third and long after Tennessee blows up a toss play.
10:50 – Auburn completes the pass, but it’s well short of the first down. Expect another punt here… and Gerald Jones returns it to the 42.
9:00 – Third and four, and another terrible Crompton pass. The throw goes well out of bounds, and once again Tennessee will have to punt after another three and out. They really need to take advantage of this field position at some point…
7:45 – This is one of the worst games I’ve ever watched. Auburn will punt on 4th and 18, after another three and out. Maybe these teams should get points for punts. The punt is downed on Auburn’s 45 yard line. This is starting to feel like déjà vu…
6:10 – You have got to be %#%@ kidding me. Tennessee fails again on third down. Another punt, and Auburn takes over on the 20.
5:55 – Burns is back in at quarterback for Auburn. He can scramble, but doesn’t seem to throw very well.
4:40 – Burns runs on three straight plays for negative yards, and once again Tennessee will get the ball back. The Vols take over near midfield.
3:20 – Crompton’s numbers for the day: 8/22 for 67 yards. Needless to say, Tennessee goes three and out after the pressure rattles Crompton on second and third down. I have no more adjectives to describe the shittiness that I am witnessing. Cunningham is Tennessee’s MVP right now, and his punt is downed on the five yard line.
2:14 – Auburn faces a third and five after a nice run by Mario Fannin to avoid losing yardage. A first down here might win the game for Auburn. Timeout on the field…
2:14 (still) – Did Tennessee just call back to back timeouts? I’m confused…If so, that is beyond stupid…
2:00 – And Auburn converts… This must be game over…Tennessee is out of timeouts. Nice pass by Burns, and I think that’s Auburn’s only first down of the quarter.
0:00 – Auburn kneels down, and that’s it. No additional comments needed. Just awful...
Tennessee-Auburn: First Half
Auburn! Tennessee! Gametime!
If the last three games have been any indication, expect lots of Tennessee penalties, missed tackles and underthrown passes. Auburn’s offense hasn’t exactly been firing on all cylinders either lately, with only two offensive touchdowns in their last two games.
This could be an ugly one. Maybe not 3-2 ugly, but I doubt that both teams will hit 20 points.
15:00 – Kickoff! Tennessee receives a short kick and gets out a few yards to the 25 yard line. No penalties or fumbles so far. Not a bad start.
14:48 – Wow, Arian Foster up the middle for a three yard gain on first down. I think we’ll see a lot of that today.
14:00 – Auburn only rushes four and still gets pressure on third and long, forcing a Tennessee three-and-out. The punt is shanked and Auburn gets the ball on their own 45.
12:30 – On third down, an Auburn receiver runs backwards after a short catch and looked to be stopped short of the first down, but they give it to him anyway. First down, Auburn.
11:30 – Holy crap! Florida is losing to Ole Miss! 31-24 with three minutes to go.
11:15 – Nice tackle! A failed halfback pass results in about a ten yard loss, and The Auburn player’s helmet get knocked back another ten yards. Auburn has to punt and it rolls all the way to the Tennessee four yard line. Luckily it had already touched an Auburn player and Tennessee takes over near the 20.
9:40 – Florida update! Florida has just scored, but the extra point is blocked. The Gators still trail 31-30.
8:40 – Bad pass on third down, and Tennessee will have to punt again. Crompton looks to be limping a little. At least they managed to get one first down on this drive. Auburn takes over on their own 30.
7:40 – Third and one coming up.
7:25 – Sigh. After about three missed tackles, Brandon Tate reels off a 15 yard gain.
5:35 – What kind of defense is that? Auburn completes a nice 15 yard pass amidst mass confusion in the UT secondary. Maybe there are getting distracted by all the arm-flapping coming from the Auburn sidelines. They must have about five different people sending in signals.
4:15 – Another Auburn first down, on a third down conversion. They’ve marched down to the Tennessee 17 yard-line.
4:00 – Final score: Ole Miss pulled it off! What does this say about Tennessee? They lose to UCLA and Florida, and those teams turn around and lose to even scrappier teams.
2:52 – Touchdown Auburn! Robert Dunn hauls in a 20 yard TD pass in the middle of the end zone, and the touted safety Eric Berry didn’t give him much resistance. Auburn leads 7-0.
2:45 – Not a bad return by Dennis Rogan. The Vols take over at the 30.
1:15 – Crompton completes his first pass of the day!! First down! Montario Hardesty follows it up with a great 15 yard run, with a nice cut and spin move.
0:00 – End of the first quarter. Tennessee ends with an incompletion as a result of a miscommunication between Crompton and receiver Denarius Moore. Of course, that was preceded by a false start. This game has been pretty boring so far…
15:00 – The second quarter starts up, and Tennessee has gotten down to the Auburn 30. Unfortunately the drive stalls and Tennessee is forced to kick a field goal. This will be about a 48 yard field goal.
14:08 – He nails it! Tennessee cuts the Auburn lead to 7-3.
12:20 – Despite the best efforts of Tim Hawthorne, Auburn is forced to punt, and Tennessee takes over at the 20. Hawthorne nearly brought in a one-handed catch on third and ten, but can’t quite reel it in.
11:15 – The G-Gun formation comes into play! Gerald Jones takes the direct snap and reels off a 22 yard run, making a couple of Auburn players miss along the way.
10:00 – A dangerous Crompton pass, and Tennessee avoids disaster. Tennessee is driving, though, and is down to the Auburn 18. Third and three coming up.
9:00 – Geez. Another bad route/miscommunication/bad throw, and it’s fourth down. 35 yard field goal attempt by Daniel Lincoln and it’s good! Auburn 7, Tennessee 6. Eventually Tennessee is going to need some touchdowns.
7:30 – Auburn stalls at midfield and will be forced to punt. It rolls all the way down to the 5 yard line and UT will take over. I wouldn’t expect much out of any drive that starts inside the ten, especially with the typically conservative UT offense.
7:00 - @%#$#%^!!!!! Arian Foster fumbles the handoff and Auburn recovers the ball in the end zone. Unbelievable. Auburn leads 14-6. It’s hard to imagine anything easier than a handoff, but somehow they screwed it up. The announcers are blaming Crompton…
5:45 – Tennessee looks dead out there. Three and out, which ends with a batted Crompton pass. Auburn takes the punt and starts from their own 35.
5:00 – Auburn’s backup QB is tearing up Tennessee. Kodi Burns is un-tackleable. At least for the guys in orange… Two defensive linemen miss sack opportunities, and somehow Burns completes a pass for a first down. This follows a 15 yard Burns QB scramble.
2:50 – Third and four inside Tennessee’s 20. The pass is dropped and Auburn will go for the field goal. 35 yard attempt…and no good!! Tennessee is still within striking distance.
1:05 – Three and out for the Vols. Crompton gets nailed on third down after a designed QB draw. Auburn will have time to add to their lead, since the punt probably won’t go over 35 yards.
0:52 – Chad Cunningham’s punt is almost blocked, but he gets it away and Auburn takes over at their 20. Auburn looks content to run out the clock.
Halftime! Tennessee is still in it, but it’s hard to see them pulling out a victory unless they can get the passing game going, or generate a turnover or two.
If the last three games have been any indication, expect lots of Tennessee penalties, missed tackles and underthrown passes. Auburn’s offense hasn’t exactly been firing on all cylinders either lately, with only two offensive touchdowns in their last two games.
This could be an ugly one. Maybe not 3-2 ugly, but I doubt that both teams will hit 20 points.
15:00 – Kickoff! Tennessee receives a short kick and gets out a few yards to the 25 yard line. No penalties or fumbles so far. Not a bad start.
14:48 – Wow, Arian Foster up the middle for a three yard gain on first down. I think we’ll see a lot of that today.
14:00 – Auburn only rushes four and still gets pressure on third and long, forcing a Tennessee three-and-out. The punt is shanked and Auburn gets the ball on their own 45.
12:30 – On third down, an Auburn receiver runs backwards after a short catch and looked to be stopped short of the first down, but they give it to him anyway. First down, Auburn.
11:30 – Holy crap! Florida is losing to Ole Miss! 31-24 with three minutes to go.
11:15 – Nice tackle! A failed halfback pass results in about a ten yard loss, and The Auburn player’s helmet get knocked back another ten yards. Auburn has to punt and it rolls all the way to the Tennessee four yard line. Luckily it had already touched an Auburn player and Tennessee takes over near the 20.
9:40 – Florida update! Florida has just scored, but the extra point is blocked. The Gators still trail 31-30.
8:40 – Bad pass on third down, and Tennessee will have to punt again. Crompton looks to be limping a little. At least they managed to get one first down on this drive. Auburn takes over on their own 30.
7:40 – Third and one coming up.
7:25 – Sigh. After about three missed tackles, Brandon Tate reels off a 15 yard gain.
5:35 – What kind of defense is that? Auburn completes a nice 15 yard pass amidst mass confusion in the UT secondary. Maybe there are getting distracted by all the arm-flapping coming from the Auburn sidelines. They must have about five different people sending in signals.
4:15 – Another Auburn first down, on a third down conversion. They’ve marched down to the Tennessee 17 yard-line.
4:00 – Final score: Ole Miss pulled it off! What does this say about Tennessee? They lose to UCLA and Florida, and those teams turn around and lose to even scrappier teams.
2:52 – Touchdown Auburn! Robert Dunn hauls in a 20 yard TD pass in the middle of the end zone, and the touted safety Eric Berry didn’t give him much resistance. Auburn leads 7-0.
2:45 – Not a bad return by Dennis Rogan. The Vols take over at the 30.
1:15 – Crompton completes his first pass of the day!! First down! Montario Hardesty follows it up with a great 15 yard run, with a nice cut and spin move.
0:00 – End of the first quarter. Tennessee ends with an incompletion as a result of a miscommunication between Crompton and receiver Denarius Moore. Of course, that was preceded by a false start. This game has been pretty boring so far…
15:00 – The second quarter starts up, and Tennessee has gotten down to the Auburn 30. Unfortunately the drive stalls and Tennessee is forced to kick a field goal. This will be about a 48 yard field goal.
14:08 – He nails it! Tennessee cuts the Auburn lead to 7-3.
12:20 – Despite the best efforts of Tim Hawthorne, Auburn is forced to punt, and Tennessee takes over at the 20. Hawthorne nearly brought in a one-handed catch on third and ten, but can’t quite reel it in.
11:15 – The G-Gun formation comes into play! Gerald Jones takes the direct snap and reels off a 22 yard run, making a couple of Auburn players miss along the way.
10:00 – A dangerous Crompton pass, and Tennessee avoids disaster. Tennessee is driving, though, and is down to the Auburn 18. Third and three coming up.
9:00 – Geez. Another bad route/miscommunication/bad throw, and it’s fourth down. 35 yard field goal attempt by Daniel Lincoln and it’s good! Auburn 7, Tennessee 6. Eventually Tennessee is going to need some touchdowns.
7:30 – Auburn stalls at midfield and will be forced to punt. It rolls all the way down to the 5 yard line and UT will take over. I wouldn’t expect much out of any drive that starts inside the ten, especially with the typically conservative UT offense.
7:00 - @%#$#%^!!!!! Arian Foster fumbles the handoff and Auburn recovers the ball in the end zone. Unbelievable. Auburn leads 14-6. It’s hard to imagine anything easier than a handoff, but somehow they screwed it up. The announcers are blaming Crompton…
5:45 – Tennessee looks dead out there. Three and out, which ends with a batted Crompton pass. Auburn takes the punt and starts from their own 35.
5:00 – Auburn’s backup QB is tearing up Tennessee. Kodi Burns is un-tackleable. At least for the guys in orange… Two defensive linemen miss sack opportunities, and somehow Burns completes a pass for a first down. This follows a 15 yard Burns QB scramble.
2:50 – Third and four inside Tennessee’s 20. The pass is dropped and Auburn will go for the field goal. 35 yard attempt…and no good!! Tennessee is still within striking distance.
1:05 – Three and out for the Vols. Crompton gets nailed on third down after a designed QB draw. Auburn will have time to add to their lead, since the punt probably won’t go over 35 yards.
0:52 – Chad Cunningham’s punt is almost blocked, but he gets it away and Auburn takes over at their 20. Auburn looks content to run out the clock.
Halftime! Tennessee is still in it, but it’s hard to see them pulling out a victory unless they can get the passing game going, or generate a turnover or two.
Beginning of the End
OK, the beginning of the end has already started for Tennessee, when they only went into halftime with a 7-3 lead against UCLA despite intercepting 4 Kevin Craft passes.
However, things are about to get much, much worse for Tennessee. Fresh off an embarrassing home loss to Florida, Tennessee heads off to Auburn to face what must be a very pissed-off Tiger team. Losing a last-minute thriller to a top five team (on your home turf no less) should have these guys fired up and ready to prove themselves. But which Auburn team will show up? The team that took a 14-3 halftime lead against LSU? Or the one that was outscored 23-7 in the second half of that same game? Will it be the defense that shut out Mississippi State? Or the offense that could manage one measly field goal?
Oddsmakers don't appear to be to sure, since Auburn is currently only a 6.5 point favorite. For reference, Georgia is also a 6.5 point favorite over Alabama, and no one is writing off the Tide at this point. Tennessee has been down this road before, and they always seem to win one game that no one expects them to. Sure, they lose a lot more games they "should" win, but this looks like one of those times when they could surprise people. They were in this same position last year when they were 2-2 and ambushed a ranked Georgia team 35-14. Even in that ill-fated 5-6 2005 season the Vols managed to give LSU their only regular season loss. Maybe I'm giving myself false hope, but Auburn seems ripe for an upset.
In other big games, of course all eyes will be on Alabama-Georgia. Well, everyone who doesn't actually have plans to go out. What's with all these 8:00 kickoffs? Arkansas travels to Texas in what would have been a great game last year, but instead should be a slaughter this time around. A couple of Big Ten games could help shape the upcoming season. Rising star Penn State will hope to keep their momentum going against Illinois, while Wisconsin heads to Michigan. If either of those teams loses (especially Penn State), it will be a dark day for the Big Ten. That conference is at the end of its rope. They NEED Penn State to do well. OSU has already been embarrassed on the national stage. Michigan State always seems to be a dark horse, but the opening loss to Cal will ultimately hold them back. With Michigan in re-building mode and the rest of the teams worthless (Northwestern, Iowa, Indiana, Minnesota, Purdue) the Big Ten cannot afford for Penn State to slip up.
Small-conference fans (and SEC fans) will be cheering for TCU as they face Oklahoma. I can't claim to know much about TCU, but they're ranked in the top 25 for some reason so I guess they must be decent. Apparently going undefeated against three teams with a combined 4-9 record and a DII school is all it takes to get ranked these days.
Oh yeah, USC lost. Can't say I'm surprised. At least we don't have to hear any more talk about how this is the greatest team in the history of USC.
Well, since I'm planning to watch the Tennessee game anyway, I'll jot down some of my thoughts about it. However, if it's too painful, you may only get highlights from the first half. Go Vols...
However, things are about to get much, much worse for Tennessee. Fresh off an embarrassing home loss to Florida, Tennessee heads off to Auburn to face what must be a very pissed-off Tiger team. Losing a last-minute thriller to a top five team (on your home turf no less) should have these guys fired up and ready to prove themselves. But which Auburn team will show up? The team that took a 14-3 halftime lead against LSU? Or the one that was outscored 23-7 in the second half of that same game? Will it be the defense that shut out Mississippi State? Or the offense that could manage one measly field goal?
Oddsmakers don't appear to be to sure, since Auburn is currently only a 6.5 point favorite. For reference, Georgia is also a 6.5 point favorite over Alabama, and no one is writing off the Tide at this point. Tennessee has been down this road before, and they always seem to win one game that no one expects them to. Sure, they lose a lot more games they "should" win, but this looks like one of those times when they could surprise people. They were in this same position last year when they were 2-2 and ambushed a ranked Georgia team 35-14. Even in that ill-fated 5-6 2005 season the Vols managed to give LSU their only regular season loss. Maybe I'm giving myself false hope, but Auburn seems ripe for an upset.
In other big games, of course all eyes will be on Alabama-Georgia. Well, everyone who doesn't actually have plans to go out. What's with all these 8:00 kickoffs? Arkansas travels to Texas in what would have been a great game last year, but instead should be a slaughter this time around. A couple of Big Ten games could help shape the upcoming season. Rising star Penn State will hope to keep their momentum going against Illinois, while Wisconsin heads to Michigan. If either of those teams loses (especially Penn State), it will be a dark day for the Big Ten. That conference is at the end of its rope. They NEED Penn State to do well. OSU has already been embarrassed on the national stage. Michigan State always seems to be a dark horse, but the opening loss to Cal will ultimately hold them back. With Michigan in re-building mode and the rest of the teams worthless (Northwestern, Iowa, Indiana, Minnesota, Purdue) the Big Ten cannot afford for Penn State to slip up.
Small-conference fans (and SEC fans) will be cheering for TCU as they face Oklahoma. I can't claim to know much about TCU, but they're ranked in the top 25 for some reason so I guess they must be decent. Apparently going undefeated against three teams with a combined 4-9 record and a DII school is all it takes to get ranked these days.
Oh yeah, USC lost. Can't say I'm surprised. At least we don't have to hear any more talk about how this is the greatest team in the history of USC.
Well, since I'm planning to watch the Tennessee game anyway, I'll jot down some of my thoughts about it. However, if it's too painful, you may only get highlights from the first half. Go Vols...
Friday, September 5, 2008
WC 2010 Qualification Weekend Preview
After a brief hiatus, World Cup 2010 qualification is about to swing back into action. With the exception of Asia, every confederation will be holding matches in the next week. Most teams will play two games, with the first generally this Saturday and the second on Wednesday.While all the qualifying games are important, the African qualifiers have perhaps the most significance. These two games represent the last two games of the semi-final round, which will ultimately eliminate over half of the remaining teams and leave five groups of four. Cameroon and Nigeria are virtually assured of advancing, but nearly every other African nation is still fighting for the right to move to the next round. Notable teams looking especially precarious are Angola (WC ’06), Tunisia (WC ’98, ’02, ’06; ’04 Africa Cup of Nations winner) and Egypt (’06, ’08 Africa Cup of Nations winner). Given the convoluted method that the African confederation has chosen for its qualification process, it is virtually impossible to tell which teams will advance until all the games are completed.
CONCACAF is also in action this weekend, and is highlighted by the United States trip to Cuba. USA will also host Trinidad & Tobago. Two other Group 1 games (T&T – Guatemala, Guatemala – Cuba) should serve to provide some separation for the likely second-place finisher, whoever that might be. Expect the teams that performs the best in those two games to ultimately advance to the CONCACAF final round. Other key games include Mexico v. Jamaica (9/6) and Honduras v. Jamaica (9/10). Honduras will need to win at least one of its games (the other is at Canada) if they want to stay alive, after dropping a tough game at Mexico. Costa Rica should easily wins its group, and whoever else advances out of Haiti, Suriname, and El Salvador will certainly finish in last place in the final round.
The majority of soccer fans will be most excited to see the European qualification process get underway, as all teams play two games this week. With a large number of weaker teams and most teams playing ten games, each game has relatively less importance. Barring a few upsets here and there, I expect that the European qualification will proceed as it has for the last several decades. Only two Saturday games are worth mentioning: Israel-Switzerland and Austria-France. A win by Israel would give them a huge edge towards qualification right off the bat (Switzerland and Greece are the only other viable competitors) while France will look to avoid embarrassment on the road against a decent opponent. Wednesday (9/10) offers a little bit more excitement, as France will once again face a tough test, this time on its home soil against Serbia. Croatia hosts England, and you can bet that the English will be eager for some revenge after Croatia eliminated them from Euro 2008 qualifying. Portugal hosts Denmark, which is the only other highlight among a rather drab group of games.
Lastly, CONMEBOL (South America) has a few key games of its own. Argentina-Paraguay is probably the most exciting, but since it’s highly likely that both teams will advance regardless, it shouldn’t impact the overall standings. All eyes will be on Brazil, given that they are currently sitting in fifth place (which would require they to have a play-in against a CONCACAF team) and travel to face Chile on Sunday. Chile currently sits one point ahead of the Brazilians in the standings, so Brazil will be especially anxious to score some points. Another key matchup will be Colombia-Uruguay. Both teams seems to be in a constant battle to be South America’s fifth-best team, and this game could provide some needed separation for one of the sides. With Argentina, Paraguay, and Brazil typically dominating South America, Colombia and Uruguay are often left to duke it out for one the remaining slots. Colombia is currently third while Uruguay sits in sixth place, but only two points separate the teams in the standings.
Well, now that you now all the games, good luck trying to watch them on tv. As far as I know, only the USA games will be televised here, unless you get some crazy satellite channels I don't know about. USA-Cuba (9/6) will be on ESPN Classic at 8:00 and USA-T&T (9/10) will be on ESPN2 at 8:00. Enjoy!
Tuesday, September 2, 2008
Laces out, Dan!
It’s always easy to blame the kicker, but Vol fans who watched the UCLA debacle know that the blame can’t all be heaped onto Daniel Lincoln. Sure, he missed three field goals (four, if you include one miss that was nullified by a penalty and resulted in a punt) but he is hardly the sole culprit. It should be noted that two (or three, including the no-go) of his misses were from over 50 yards, although he definitely should have made the 35 yarder in OT.
Let’s recap: Tennessee intercepted four wayward Kevin Craft passes in the first half alone, including one that was returned for a touchdown. They held UCLA to a total of 29 rushing yards. Yet somehow, they went into halftime holding only a 14-7 lead. In the second half, they allowed a rejuvenated UCLA passing offense to take the lead before UT tied the game on a last-second field goal. Of course, Tennessee ultimately lost in overtime, but it seemed a foregone conclusion before the players even took the field.
The highly-touted Jonathan Crompton looked as if he had never faced a live pass rush, and continually scattered passes high, short and wide of his intended targets. He ended up completing 19 of 41passes for a paltry 46% completion percentage. Even when things did seem to be going well, the Vols never failed to shoot themselves in the foot with an ill-timed penalty, racking up nine to UCLA’s two. One of the worst sequences was early in the fourth quarter, when Tennessee had returned a punt to UCLA’s 25 yard line. After a short rush and then an incomplete pass, Crompton took a sack that effectively pushed the Vols out of field goal range. They tried the kick anyway, and even though Lincoln missed the attempt, it wouldn’t have counted due to a delay of game penalty. Instead, the Vols wound up punting from the UCLA 38, which ended up going out of the end zone. Even with the punt, Tennessee only gained six yards of field position from their original line of scrimmage.
Turnovers ultimately proved more costly for Tennessee than UCLA, as the Vols fumbled the ball at the UCLA 5 yards line early in the third quarter. A touchdown would have put Tennessee up 21-7 and could have drastically affected the momentum of the game. Even a field goal would have made it a two-score game. Meanwhile, aside from the interception return for a touchdown, Tennessee could only manage two missed 50+ yard field goals off of UCLA’s three other interceptions.
After running UCLA off the field in the first half, the defense seemed content to sit back and let Kevin Craft pick them apart, rarely rushing more than four down linemen. Tennessee never seemed to adjust to UCLA’s zone-beating pass attack, and the Bruins chewed the Vols up ten yards at a time in the critical fourth quarter. Despite no threat of a running game, Tennessee did nothing to prevent Kevin Craft from completing the little hook routes and crosses over the middle that kept their drives alive. In fact, UCLA was able to construct two nearly identical touchdown drives of 70 and 80 yards each in the fourth quarter. I can only recall one time when Tennessee was able to sack the quarterback, although there may have been one or two more, but UCLA and their coaching staff essentially had their way with the UT defense in the waning minutes.
I suppose I could go on and on about Tennessee’s blunders. While credit is in due for Kevin Craft and his gutsy second half play, the Volunteers really threw this game away. One thing to consider: last year started off with a disappointing Pac-10 loss, and UT ended up in the SEC Championship. Even after humiliating losses to Florida and Alabama left them at 4-3, Tennessee was able to climb back and win five straight. Unfortunately, I think Tennessee may need a little more luck if they want to reach eight wins again this year.
In other SEC news, the conference generally turned in impressive performances. Florida, LSU and Georgia dominated, as expected, but Alabama delivered a truly head-turning performance by demolishing ACC pre-season favorite Clemson. Kentucky also performed surprisingly well in holding rival Louisville to a safety in a 27-2 romp. Aside from Tennessee’s disappointing turn, Arkansas and Mississippi State looked like SEC pretenders after their showings. Arkansas barely held off Western Illinois in Bobby Petrino’s debut, while Mississippi State couldn’t even match that, losing to Louisiana Tech.
Coming up later this week is a not-too-surprising dearth of quality games, as most of the top teams are tuning up against lightweights, ala OSU-Ohio, LSU-Troy, and Texas-UTEP. The most interesting SEC matchup should be the Thursday night battle between South Carolina and Vanderbilt. Expect a low scoring game: Vanderbilt won 17-6 last year at South Carolina. As I mentioned before, a Vandy win would go a big way towards getting the Commodores to their first bowl since 1982. Other top matchups include Florida-Miami (which would have been a great game five years ago) and West Virginia-East Carolina. East Carolina is coming off of a big win against Virginia Tech and would like to pull off two major upsets in a row. Beyond on that, you won't be missing much.
One final thought: Georgia fans - don't look past Central Michigan. They travel to Athens to face the Bulldogs, and this CMU team is better than most people realize. Granted, last year they were blown out by Kansas and Clemson by a combined score of 132-21, but QB Dan LeFevour is a talent and helped bring the 2007 MAC title to Central Michigan. Then again, Georgia has a pretty good history of dealing with highly touted non-BCS passing attacks...
Let’s recap: Tennessee intercepted four wayward Kevin Craft passes in the first half alone, including one that was returned for a touchdown. They held UCLA to a total of 29 rushing yards. Yet somehow, they went into halftime holding only a 14-7 lead. In the second half, they allowed a rejuvenated UCLA passing offense to take the lead before UT tied the game on a last-second field goal. Of course, Tennessee ultimately lost in overtime, but it seemed a foregone conclusion before the players even took the field.
The highly-touted Jonathan Crompton looked as if he had never faced a live pass rush, and continually scattered passes high, short and wide of his intended targets. He ended up completing 19 of 41passes for a paltry 46% completion percentage. Even when things did seem to be going well, the Vols never failed to shoot themselves in the foot with an ill-timed penalty, racking up nine to UCLA’s two. One of the worst sequences was early in the fourth quarter, when Tennessee had returned a punt to UCLA’s 25 yard line. After a short rush and then an incomplete pass, Crompton took a sack that effectively pushed the Vols out of field goal range. They tried the kick anyway, and even though Lincoln missed the attempt, it wouldn’t have counted due to a delay of game penalty. Instead, the Vols wound up punting from the UCLA 38, which ended up going out of the end zone. Even with the punt, Tennessee only gained six yards of field position from their original line of scrimmage.
Turnovers ultimately proved more costly for Tennessee than UCLA, as the Vols fumbled the ball at the UCLA 5 yards line early in the third quarter. A touchdown would have put Tennessee up 21-7 and could have drastically affected the momentum of the game. Even a field goal would have made it a two-score game. Meanwhile, aside from the interception return for a touchdown, Tennessee could only manage two missed 50+ yard field goals off of UCLA’s three other interceptions.
After running UCLA off the field in the first half, the defense seemed content to sit back and let Kevin Craft pick them apart, rarely rushing more than four down linemen. Tennessee never seemed to adjust to UCLA’s zone-beating pass attack, and the Bruins chewed the Vols up ten yards at a time in the critical fourth quarter. Despite no threat of a running game, Tennessee did nothing to prevent Kevin Craft from completing the little hook routes and crosses over the middle that kept their drives alive. In fact, UCLA was able to construct two nearly identical touchdown drives of 70 and 80 yards each in the fourth quarter. I can only recall one time when Tennessee was able to sack the quarterback, although there may have been one or two more, but UCLA and their coaching staff essentially had their way with the UT defense in the waning minutes.
I suppose I could go on and on about Tennessee’s blunders. While credit is in due for Kevin Craft and his gutsy second half play, the Volunteers really threw this game away. One thing to consider: last year started off with a disappointing Pac-10 loss, and UT ended up in the SEC Championship. Even after humiliating losses to Florida and Alabama left them at 4-3, Tennessee was able to climb back and win five straight. Unfortunately, I think Tennessee may need a little more luck if they want to reach eight wins again this year.
In other SEC news, the conference generally turned in impressive performances. Florida, LSU and Georgia dominated, as expected, but Alabama delivered a truly head-turning performance by demolishing ACC pre-season favorite Clemson. Kentucky also performed surprisingly well in holding rival Louisville to a safety in a 27-2 romp. Aside from Tennessee’s disappointing turn, Arkansas and Mississippi State looked like SEC pretenders after their showings. Arkansas barely held off Western Illinois in Bobby Petrino’s debut, while Mississippi State couldn’t even match that, losing to Louisiana Tech.
Coming up later this week is a not-too-surprising dearth of quality games, as most of the top teams are tuning up against lightweights, ala OSU-Ohio, LSU-Troy, and Texas-UTEP. The most interesting SEC matchup should be the Thursday night battle between South Carolina and Vanderbilt. Expect a low scoring game: Vanderbilt won 17-6 last year at South Carolina. As I mentioned before, a Vandy win would go a big way towards getting the Commodores to their first bowl since 1982. Other top matchups include Florida-Miami (which would have been a great game five years ago) and West Virginia-East Carolina. East Carolina is coming off of a big win against Virginia Tech and would like to pull off two major upsets in a row. Beyond on that, you won't be missing much.
One final thought: Georgia fans - don't look past Central Michigan. They travel to Athens to face the Bulldogs, and this CMU team is better than most people realize. Granted, last year they were blown out by Kansas and Clemson by a combined score of 132-21, but QB Dan LeFevour is a talent and helped bring the 2007 MAC title to Central Michigan. Then again, Georgia has a pretty good history of dealing with highly touted non-BCS passing attacks...
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