South-East Coast Bias

First Round - What Did We Learn?

2009-03-21T11:34:00.002-04:00

Well, for starters, maybe the ACC isn't quite the juggernaut that everyone thought it was. Four of the conference's seven teams went down, and all four were upset by lower seeded teams. Wake Forest was blown out by 13-seed Cleveland State, 7-seeds Clemson and Boston College were upset by Michigan and USC (respectively) and Florida State fell to Wisconsin in overtime. Only Maryland's mild upset of Cal saved the conference further embarassment.

Oh, and for what it's worth, I called the USC and Wisconsin upsets. Yee-aahhhh!!!

I watched the thrilling overtime finishes between both Ohio State-Siena (2OT!) and USC-Wisconsin last night, and I have to admit it was one of the most exciting sequences I have seen in some time. Siena and Wisconsin both hit timely three pointers to stay alive, and their opponents fell just short at the buzzer. As an OSU-hater, I especially enjoyed seeing Siena take down the Buckeyes.

The Mountain West has to be disappointed to see both of their teams crash out against lower-seeded teams. Earlier in the season, there was talk that the conference might earn three or even four bids. The poor showing shouldn't (but probably will) affect perception of the league next season.

And what about Dayton? Many experts were predicting West Virginia as a sleeper to reach at least the Sweet 16, so it's a great win for the Flyers. Kansas will be a tough matchup for them, but Dayton is playing with a lot of confidence right now.

Overall, though, the tournament is basically going according to plan. Wake Forest was the only team seeded fourth or higher that lost (although three 5 seeds lost) and the top contenders are all still alive. The second round tends to provide more of these types of upsets.

Of the one seeds, I think Pitt has the toughest matchup. Oklahoma State can run the floor and has beaten several top teams. LSU is a bit of enigma, but I don't see them hanging with North Carolina. Connecticut and Louisville should also be able to handle Texas A&M and Siena, although I've said before that Louisville makes me a little nervous.

Among the two seeds, I've already gone on record saying I expect Michigan State to lose to USC. Oklahoma could also be susceptible to an upset, but Michigan will need its threes to fall. Memphis and Duke would seem to be a little more safe. Memphis opponent Maryland has the capability of winning tough games, but they are not consistent. We've already seen the middle of the ACC exposed as perhaps a bit overrated, so I expect Memphis to win. Duke has been a prime candidate as of late for earlier-than-expected exits, but I am not impressed at all with Texas.

Well, the games start in less than an hour, so enjoy! Game number one is UCLA-Villanova,and once again I'm expecting another upset there.

Last Minute Tournament Preview

2009-03-19T11:20:00.004-04:00

OK, so maybe you had been expecting more “bubble” updates as the conference tournaments were winding down, so sorry about that. For what it’s worth, I think the committee did a pretty good job. Also, a number of surprise tourney berths (Mississippi State, Temple, and Cleveland State) eliminated at-large spots and probably made the committee’s job a little bit easier.

From a seed-centric perspective, it appears that Arizona and Wisconsin were the last two teams to make the tournament (as 12 seeds) with Dayton coming as the lone at-large 11 seed. Michigan, Minnesota, and Maryland all clocked in as 10 seeds. Nine seeds Tennessee, Butler, and Texas A&M were never really in any doubt, so realistically speaking, only about six seeds were up for grabs going into the final selection process.

I don’t really have any huge issues with the seeds themselves, but I will point a few teams that seem to stick out a little bit. For example, I’m a little surprised that Boston College earned a seven seed. I know they beat Duke and won at UNC, but they also lost at home to Harvard and only went 9-7 in conference, including 5-5 in their last ten games. Xavier also seems to be seeded a little high. They had two very impressive wins back in November (Missouri, Memphis) but also struggled down the stretch (going 5-5 with two losses to RPI 100+ teams), so a four seed seems a little high. Maybe I’m a little biased, but I think Tennessee’s nine seed is a little low. The weak SEC may have brought down their numbers a little bit but they did play against the third ranked schedule in the country and advanced to the SEC title game.

For posterity’s sake, I’ll mention my bracket picks, although I didn’t put an incredible amount of thought into them. Unless otherwise noted, I went with the chalk.

First Round
Arizona over Utah – Utah may be ranked in the RPI top ten, but they won only one road game against an RPI top 100 team (Wyoming). They did win the Mountain West tourney, while Arizona is coming off a disappointing quarterfinal exit. Arizona has also lost five of their last six, so I can’t come up with any rational reasons for this pick, except that I think Utah is overrated and Arizona will want to justify their inclusion as likely the last at-large selection.

USC over Boston College – Unlike Arizona, USC is playing well right now, having just won the Pac-10 tourney. As I mentioned above, I think Boston College was seeded too generously and I like this game for an upset.

Tennessee over Oklahoma State – I guess a nine over an eight is upset, but as a Vols fan, I have to pick them to win at least one game.

Wisconsin over Florida State – My usual thought process centers around the fact that the Big Ten sucks, but hey, Northwestern was able to beat Florida State, so why not Wisconsin? Wisconsin also won at Virginia Tech, which proves they can beat ACC talent.

Wow, a whopping four upset picks for the first round. Let’s not get carried away here…

Second Round
USC over Michigan State – First of all, I’m in a pool with a bunch of people from Michigan, so this is huge chance for me to separate myself from them. But more importantly, Michigan State really isn’t all that good. I may be biased because one of the only games I saw them play was a 98-63 blowout at the hands of UNC, but their disappointing show in the Big Ten tourney may be a sign of things to come.

Wisconsin over Xavier – What the hell is wrong with me? Picking one of the last at-large teams to advance to the Sweet 16? Well, I do feel that Xavier is over-seeded and they haven’t been able to win on the road, at least lately. This is more a pick against Xavier than for Wisconsin. If Florida State beats Wisconsin, I would probably pick them over Xavier as well.

UCLA over Villanova – Many people are picking UCLA to get upset in the first round by VCU, so this is my “opposite pick” that sometimes seems to work in Vegas. Unfortunately, Villanova will basically be playing at home, so this may be a reach. UCLA has Final Four experience, so I don’t see them going down easily. Call me crazy.

Arizona State over Syracuse – Throw rationale out the window. I just think Syracuse’s luck has run out. That 6 OT win over UConn must have used up a lot of karma. Meanwhile, Arizona State has kind of slipped in under the radar, although did play well in the Pac-10 tourney before losing in the title game to USC.

Again, I don’t know what is wrong with me. I have FOUR Pac-10 teams in the Sweet 16. I guess Obama and I are not on the same page – he has every Pac-10 team losing in the second round (or earlier). I think my picks are more a factor of good matchups than an actual statement on the strength of the conference.

Sweet 16
Sorry, no upsets here. I do have Kansas advancing to the Elite Eight (in place of Michigan State/USC) but all my other one and two seeds held serve. Oh, and that also means all the Pac-10 teams are gone now.

Elite Eight
Memphis over Connecticut – Memphis never seems to get any love, despite the fact they have been to three straight Elite Eights. They are hard team to gauge, but it’s also hard to ignore how they dominated the Conference USA tournament. Connecticut has a terrific resume and will probably be rested after bowing out a little earlier than expected in the Big East tourney. Regardless, this should be a great game and obviously it could go either way, but I like Memphis to come out on top.

Final Four
Memphis over Louisville
UNC over Pitt

At this point we’re just splitting hairs. Louisville can be inconsistent (see: 90-57 loss at Notre Dame) but they are peaking at the right now. UNC’s fortunes will probably depend on Ty Lawson. If he is not 100%, then Pitt would be my pick.

Champion
UNC - Unless they lose to Pitt...

Bubble Watch - Weekend Update

2009-02-23T16:59:00.003-05:00

After a weekend full of exciting games, several teams helped their tournament causes, while a few others shot themselves in the foot.

Time is starting to run and out, and desperation may set in for a few teams listed below.

No Longer a Lock
Gonzaga – Sure, they’ve only lost once in 2009, but their RPI continues to slip thanks to a weak conference schedule. They have probably saved up enough goodwill from previous tournaments, but this clearly isn’t one of Gonzaga’s better teams in recent memory. Their schedule is easy enough that they shouldn’t lose until possibly the WCC championship, but a loss before then would be very bad.

Ohio State – OSU has fallen out of the RPI top 40 (43) and into legitimate bubble territory. With a 7-7 conference record, Ohio State will need to win at least two of its last four games. After losing their last three games, the Buckeyes are rapidly losing ground in the Big Ten. Ohio State hosts Penn State tomorrow night in what will be a big game for both teams.

Georgetown – We already knew the Hoyas were in trouble, despite a lofty RPI, but now that RPI has fallen all the way to 45. Worse, they are 5-9 in the Big East, have lost eight of their last ten, and just missed a chance for a big home win against Marquette. Georgetown hosts Louisville today and this game could be considered a must-win game. If they lose, their next game (at Louisville) most definitely becomes a ‘must-win’ game, but even that may not be enough.

South Carolina – In January, South Carolina looked like it might be a rising squad in the SEC, but lately they have been just as inconsistent as the rest of the bunch and their RPI has slipped to 44. With an 8-4 SEC record, South Carolina may be able to absorb home losses to Tennessee and Kentucky over the next couple of weeks, but a win in one of those two games would probably punch their ticket.

Moving Up
Texas – After knocking off Oklahoma this past weekend, Texas might have just sealed their bid. With an RPI at 35, Texas can probably afford to split their last four games and still feel relatively comfortable.

Texas A&M – Having just beat Texas themselves, A&M gets a bit of a secondary bump from Texas’ win over Oklahoma. With an RPI of 39 and 5-7 conference record, Texas A&M certainly can’t feel too comfortable right now, but their next three games are manageable and they finish with an important home date against Missouri.

LSU – After moving into the RPI top 40, LSU is almost assured of an NCAA bid. Even if they lose their last four games, LSU would still have an 11-5 SEC record.

Creighton – This team jumped about 10 RPI spots after knocking off George Mason in Bracket Busters. With many other bubble teams struggling, Creighton has to be considered a dark horse candidate to sneak into the tournament. The regular season finale against fellow bubble team Illinois St. looms large.

St. Mary’s – Another team that benefited from Bracket Busters, St. Mary’s profile certainly looks a little better after beating Utah State.

Maryland – Maryland got one of the big wins (UNC) they needed, but they will probably need another one before all is said and done. With Duke and Wake Forest still on the schedule, it just might be possible.

Penn State – A huge week for the Nittany Lions (wins over Minnesota, @ Illinois) leaves Penn State at 8-6 in the Big Ten. They travel to now-struggling Ohio State tomorrow and a win will inch Penn State even closer to that elusive bid. Their RPI (61) and non-conference schedule are still weak, but a few more conference wins will improve their profile.

Ole Miss – Don’t look now, but Ole Miss has won five of it last seven (including wins over Kentucky and Tennessee) so perhaps it’s time to give the Rebels a cursory glance. Their RPI has nudged up to 65, and with a 6-6 conference record, they aren’t completely dead. They probably need to win their last four games to have a decent chance, though.

Moving Down
USC – They missed a chance after losing at home to Washington, so they really need a result out of their road trip to Cal later this week. Their other three games won’t help their profile, but can definitely hurt them.

Davidson – After getting demolished by Butler, Davidson has run out of chances to improve their profile. Another loss would be devastating, and anything less than a conference championship may not be enough at this point.

Virginia Tech – Sinking like a rock right now, Virginia Tech can’t catch a break. They have lost three straight and finish with four games against the ACC’s top four teams. They absolutely need to win two of those games to get back into the discussion.

Providence – After losing at home to Notre Dame, it’s probably over for Providence. Their RPI has sunk to 76 and they’ve lost five of their last seven. They have two more chances to record big wins (Pitt, @Villanova) but it still might not be enough.

Bubble Watch

2009-02-17T19:56:00.006-05:00

Everyone knows that the unwritten law of NCAA tournament selection is that nearly every “BCS” conference team with greater than a .500 conference record will make it to the Big Dance. Occasionally, a team will sneak in at under .500 if at has some quality out-of-conference wins or an especially brutal schedule.

Some empirical data also suggests that nearly every BCS team with an RPI of 40 or better will be selected, and that every top 30 non-BCS team will be selected. Certainly than have been a few exceptions here and there, but I’ll hold that rule for simplification.

Following these basic rules, the following teams would advance:
ACC – UNC, Duke, Clemson, Wake Forest, Florida State
Big Ten – Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Minnesota
Big East – Pitt, Connecticut, Villanova, West Virginia, Louisville, Syracuse, Marquette, Georgetown
Big 12 – Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma State
Pac 10 – Washington, Cal, Arizona State, UCLA
SEC – Tennessee, South Carolina
Mountain West – Utah
Atlantic 10 – Xavier, Dayton
Conference USA – Memphis
Horizon – Butler
West Coast – Gonzaga
Metro Atlantic – Siena

For those of you keeping track, twelve conferences are represented above. For argument’s sake, let’s assume that all twelve auto bids for these conferences come from the teams already listed. The above list includes 37 teams, so reducing that number by 12 means 25 at-large bids are already more or less accounted for.

Given that there are 31 auto bids, this also means that 19 bids will be given to teams that wouldn’t qualify via the above requirements. Adding the 36 teams in the first list to the 19 other auto bids gives a total of 55, which means that only ten bids are truly up for grabs.

Another empirical observation of mine is that no team outside of the RPI top 65 will receive a bid. Air Force did get a bid in 2004 with an RPI of 70, but again, for argument’s sake, let’s cap it at 65.

Basically, this means that there are approximately 29 schools fighting for the last ten berths. Of course, this assumes that teams currently in the RPI top 40 will stay there, and we all know that is not going to happen. Before taking a look at some of these bubble schools, I’d like to point out a couple of teams in the ‘safe’ list that might not be so safe.

Siena (29) – Siena is on the very edge of safety for a non-BCS school. They won’t have much of a chance to improve their RPI and they lack an RPI top 50 win. One more loss might just nudge them out of the RPI top 30.

Oklahoma State (37) – OSU has a relatively strong RPI, but this is more due to a strong schedule than recording solid wins. Oklahoma State is 4-6 in the Big 12 and is 2-8 against RPI top 50 schools, with their best win coming against fellow bubble-mate Siena. OSU should probably win five of its last six games to maintain this RPI (and a plus .500 conference record) but that will mean beating either Texas at home or Oklahoma on the road.

Georgetown (39) – Like Oklahoma State, Georgetown’s RPI is propped up by a killer schedule, although to their credit they do have some terrific wins (Memphis, @Conn, Syracuse). However, they have lost seven of their last eight and still have to play Marquette, Louisville, and Villanova. Georgetown will probably need to win two of those games to have a solid chance.

And on to the bubble teams!

Utah State (33) – Impressive record (23-2) but they have only three victories against RPI top 100 schools. Utah State will need to win at St. Mary’s (Bracket Busters) because their other four remaining opponents have an average RPI of over 200. Anything less than a tourney championship will probably leave them out in the cold.

Temple (34) – Surprisingly high RPI for a 15-9 team with only one RPI top 50 win. Temple does have a 7-3 conference record in the tough A-10. With a relatively easy remaining schedule, Temple has a chance to run the table if they can win at Dayton. If Temple can’t knock off Dayton, they will need a deep tourney run.

BYU (35) – 18-5 (7-3) with no bad losses, but no great wins either. They do have a neutral court win over Utah State. Their remaining schedule is tough, with dates against Mountain West rivals UNLV, San Diego State, and Utah. All four of those teams are in the hunt, so that three game stretch will go a long way in determining who advances.

UAB (39) – With only two RPI top 100 wins, I’m somewhat surprised to see UAB ranked this high, especially with a 17-8 record. The early season win at Arizona looks good and none of their losses is particularly damaging, but UAB may regret not winning one of its several close losses against RPI top 25 teams (Oklahoma, Butler, Memphis). If UAB can knock off Memphis at home, they will get a look, but otherwise I don’t see it happening.

LSU (41) – LSU is a near lock at this point with a 9-1 SEC record, including wins over Tennessee and South Carolina. They can probably afford a slip-up or two, especially if they manage to beat Florida at home or Kentucky on the road. The only yellow flag is their awful, awful non-conference schedule.

Arizona (42) – Winners of seven straight, Arizona is playing well at the right time. Probably safe, but a win at Arizona State or Washington would probably seal the deal. Arizona State currently has an 8-5 conference record and should end up with at least ten conference wins.

USC (43) – Not quite as strong a profile as Arizona, USC has yet to record any significant road wins. Their only remaining chance is at Cal. A home win over Washington this weekend would also enhance their profile, as they currently maintain a 6-6 conference record.

Texas (44) – In a bit of a tailspin at the moment. Texas has non-conference wins over Villanova and Wisconsin but have lost four of their last six. Texas will need to win one of these three games to be confident of a bid: Oklahoma, @Ok St, @Kansas.

San Diego State (45) – Very similar to BYU. Remaining home games against BYU and UNLV could improve their profile. San Diego State missed chances to record non-conference wins against Arizona and St. Mary’s.

Florida (46) – Fairly impressive record at 19-6, but other than an early season win over Washington, the Gators don’t have much to brag about. After blowing a game against previously SEC-winless Georgia, Florida will need to win at least two of these three: @LSU, Tennessee, Kentucky.

Texas A&M (47) – Staying alive after yesterday’s win over Texas, the Aggies have a very realistic chance of reaching .500 in the Big 12. Currently at 4-7, the Aggies only face one more team with a winning conference record (out of five). If Texas A&M can’t defeat Nebraska on the road, they will absolutely have to beat Missouri at home in their regular season finale.

Cincinnati (48) – Swept Georgetown and also have wins over fellow bubble teams UAB and UNLV. Their next three games (Louisville, West Virginia, @Syracuse) are brutal and Cincinnati will probably need to win two of those games to boost their profile.

Miami (49) – Miami has faced a tough schedule and notched a few notable wins (at Kentucky, Florida State, Wake Forest) but they still sit at 4-7 in the ACC. A road win at Florida State would then lead into a manageable four game stretch that could leave them at 9-7. Anything less, however, might not be enough, other than an extended ACC tourney run.

Davidson (50) – Only a win against West Virginia keeps their profile from looking completely blank. Their recent home loss to Charleston (120) hurts, as well as their remaining weak conference schedule, but a Bracket Busters win at home over Butler may push them into safer territory. Also, they may get the benefit of the doubt after last year’s performance.

Virginia Tech (51) – Solid ACC record (6-4) but unfortunately five of their last six games are against RPI top 20 teams. A couple of wins from that group (Florida State, @Clemson, Duke, UNC, @FSU) are essentially a requirement. Virginia Tech already holds solid road wins over Wake Forest and Miami.

Boston College (52) – Wins over Duke and UNC help mask ugly losses to Harvard and Saint Louis. A win in either of their next two games (@ Miami, Florida State) would help tremendously.

Michigan (53) – Still alive after beating Northwestern on the road, Michigan needs to win three of its last five just to get to .500 in the Big Ten. No easy task considering they have two against Minnesota, host Purdue and travel to Wisconsin. Even the one ‘gimmie’ (at Iowa) is no walk in the park. In short, Michigan is up against the wall right now. Wins over Duke and UCLA may come in handy if Michigan can win a few more conference games.

Baylor (54) – Like Michigan, Baylor has struggled in conference, but unlike Michigan, they don’t have great non-conference wins to fall back on, although Arizona State and Providence are both decent wins. At 4-7 in the Big 12, Baylor has to win four of five to get to 8-8. Road trips to Oklahoma State and Texas will probably prevent that from happening.

UNLV (55) – See BYU and San Diego State. They do have an ace in the hole with a road win at Louisville, but will need to score a couple of wins against the trio of Utah, BYU, and San Diego State to separate themselves from the pack.

Creighton (56) – Not likely to get any love with a home win over Dayton as the only decent accomplishment on their profile. If they can run the table, including George Mason in Bracket Busters and MVC rival Illinois State, Creighton might just get a look if they can get to their tourney championship game.

George Mason (57) – No clue how they have an RPI in range of Creighton’s. With five losses to RPI sub-100 teams (and two to RPI sub-200 teams), George Mason should focus on winning their conference tournament.

Illinois State (58) – Significantly weaker profile than Creighton, their RPI might improve with three relatively tough games (@Niagara, Northern Iowa, @Creighton) remaining. Even winning those three might not be enough if they don’t get to their conference title game.

St. Mary’s (59) – As has been well publicized, St. Mary’s has struggled without their injured star, losing four of their last six. A home win over Utah State will look good, but their fate probably rests on the health of Patty Mills.

Maryland (60) – Hanging around in the ACC at 5-5, Maryland faces the four top teams (@Clemson, UNC, Duke, Wake) in their last six games. Maryland will probably need to win two of them to get a solid look.

Kentucky (61) – Hard to envision a tournament without Kentucky, but the Wildcats will have to be careful. Four of their last six are tricky (Tennessee, @South Carolina, LSU, @Florida) and they would do well to split those games.

Niagara (62) – Not bloody likely.

Rhode Island (63) – No signature wins, but if they can run the table they will end up at 12-4 in the A-10. Only Dayton (and maybe @ Duquesne) should present a problem. If that happens, then we’ll talk.

Nebraska (64) – Will need to win four of their last six, including two (maybe three) from this group (@Kansas, Texas A&M, @ Kansas State, @Baylor) to get back into the conversation.

Western Kentucky (65) – Early season win over Louisville is all that’s keeping them alive. Even if they run the table, their weak remaining schedule will drag down their RPI.

Bonus teams!
Providence (69) – No bad losses and some good wins (Syracuse, swept Cincinnati) give Providence a little bit of leeway. Remaining schedule includes @Louisville, Notre Dame, Pitt, @Villanova. Two wins from that group could leave Providence at 11-5 in the Big East, which should be good enough for the Dance.

Penn State (71) – Terrible non-conference schedule holds them back, but if they can win one of their next two (@Illinois, @OSU) Penn State’s stock should increase dramatically.

Notre Dame (74) – Sigh. They need to win four of six to get to .500 in the Big East. That means winning two from this group: @West Virginia, @Providence, @Connecticut, Villanova. I don’t see it happening, but they still have a chance.

There you have it. If I had to pick ten from that group, I’d go with LSU, Arizona, Texas, BYU, Florida, Kentucky, Boston College, UNLV, Temple, and Utah State.

And that happened...

2009-01-29T15:14:00.001-05:00

By the way, Florida won the BCS Championship and extended the SEC’s title reign to three years. This gives the SEC four of the last six National Championships and, since the inauguration of the BCS, five of eleven. Unfortunately, other than recruiting, no one really cares about college football right now. After the Super Bowl, we’ll officially have no football until early fall. I guess we’ll have to make due with basketball and baseball until then.

Speaking of basketball, the SEC has been absolutely terrible this year. Tennessee barely looks like a tournament-worthy team (having gone 1-4 in their last five home games) and the rest of the league is even worse. No team is in the RPI top 25, and Kentucky is the lone SEC representative in the polls. After losing to Ole Miss, I doubt they’ll stick around much longer, either. Only two teams (Tennessee and Florida) are even in the RPI top 50. For absolute futility, the award has to go to Georgia. The Bulldogs (9-11) somehow have a lower RPI than such storied programs as Canisius (7-13) and Rice (6-14). Just sad.

And how the hell is Notre Dame ranked? Okay, they beat Texas and (a now-slumping) Georgetown, but come on, people! Other than those two teams, their next best win is over Seton Hall! The same Seton Hall that’s 1-6 in the Big East. Oh, and Notre Dame is ranked 78th in RPI, is 11-7 and they’ve lost five of their last seven. I don’t care if four of those losses have been against top 25 teams, teams should be ranked because they win games, not because they ‘kind of keep it close’ against elite teams. The rest of the schedule doesn’t get any easier with six RPI top 50 opponents left to go (four on the road) so hopefully Notre Dame will just fade away. Although I wouldn’t mind having the opportunity to pick them to get upset by another double-digit seed in the tourney…

Weekend in Review

2008-11-24T17:10:00.004-05:00

True to typical BCS form (as of late) Texas Tech laid a huge egg against Oklahoma and tumbled out of the BCS race. For the moment. Analysts are already putting together scenarios in which the now 7th ranked Red Raiders can return to title game contention.

How big of a disaster would that be? Think about it. Let's say Oklahoma State knocks off Oklahoma next week. That would propel Texas Tech to the Big 12 Championship game, where they would face a Missouri team that has already been manhandled by Red Raider-victim Texas. Texas Tech would likely pass both Texas and Oklahoma with a Big 12 title on its resume, and presumably Utah and the loser of Alabama-Florida as well. For those keeping track at home, that would push them from #7 to #3. Would voters leapfrog Texas Tech over a somewhat uninspiring (and currently 5th ranked) USC team? Hard to say, but I can just imagine the complaints if a team that recently lost by 40+ points ended up in the title game.

In other news, we are inching dangerously close to another yawn-inducing Rose Bowl. Now that Penn State has locked up a Rose Bowl berth, no one seems to be mentioning the fact that current Pac-10 leader Oregon State has already played Penn State. And they certainly aren't mentioning the fact that the first matchup ended before it even started, with Penn State claiming a 45-14 victory. While I would love to see USC miss a BCS bowl, I'd much rather see them play Penn State that have to suffer a week-one rematch. Expect the Rose Bowl brass to be secretly rooting for Oregon to take down Oregon State this weekend.

The ACC continues to prove that is a worthless conference. Odds are overwhelming that the conference champion will have at least four losses, unless Boston College can salvage what's left of the ACC's dignity by winning out. Only three teams have less than four losses, and all three sit at three losses. Boston College of course is one of them, and the other two are Florida State and Georgia Tech. The latter two teams each have tough out of conference rivalry games (against Florida and Georgia, respectively) remaining, so I would not count on either of them pulling out a win.

Utah, Boise State, and Ball State all won to remain undefeated, but odds are that only one of them will receive a BCS invitation. Given that Utah has already wrapped up its season and has a hefty BCS ranking advantage over their two 'mid-major' rivals, it looks like tough cookies for Boise State and Ball State.

In another blow for Tennessee, albeit an indirect one, Wyoming fired its coach this week. What does it say about Tennessee's program that a win over Tennessee would not be enough to save the job of a coach at Wyoming (Wyoming!)? Five years ago, this would have been talked about for weeks, but now it's just another disappointing event in a looong season.

The Cincinnati Bearcats are poised to claim a Big East automatic BCS berth after downing Pitt. Only a win over lowly Syracuse stands in the way of a potential Orange Bowl appearance. Great job by that team, and totally unexpected this season: The Big East media picked Cincinnati to finish fifth in the conference. Expect to hear head coach Brian Kelley's name thrown around alot this offseason in connection with various big-time openings.

Finally, a word on Alabama. Yes, they are undefeated, but I can't help feeling they will fall short before they even reach the SEC championship game. According to most statistical rankings, Alabama has the weakest schedule of any top 25 team, excluding the non-BCS schools. Other than the big win over Georgia (in which they only played well for the first half) Alabama really hasn't put together a dominant performance. Three of their SEC wins have come by less than a touchdown, and those were against mid-tier teams like LSU, Ole Miss and Kentucky. Alabama clearly has talent, but I think they have benefited from a slightly easier schedule than the rest of their SEC counterparts. The Iron Bowl will be a big mental challenge this weekend. Although Auburn is not as talented as they have been in the past, emotions always run high in the Iron Bowl and I expect a tough game. Also, Alabama hasn't beaten Auburn since 2001, so this game certainly isn't a given for 'Bama.

Maybe Obama isn't the Anti-Christ after all...

2008-11-17T15:17:00.004-05:00

You have to give Obama credit. Politicians have long attacked unpopular ideas in order to build their support. What better way to bring the country together after a divisive election than by attacking the wildly unpopular BCS? Even though the idea of the (future) most powerful man in the world stooping down to meddle in the world of college athletics is a little absurd, it is definitely a smart play.

The common man may not understand the reasons for the mortgage crisis (which is probably why we have the crisis in the first place), whether or not the domestic auto manufacturers are worth saving, or how to simultaneously reduce the federal deficit and lower taxes, but he does know one thing: the BCS sucks.

College football is the only major team sport that does not have an inclusive post-season tournament, and as long as the networks continue to sign decade-long deals with BCS bigwigs, we’ll never see any change. Whether the future President himself could force the BCS power-brokers to institute a playoff is debatable, but he will certainly earn himself a few more favorable opinions by at least pretending to try to do something about it.

I have supported a playoff system in the past, but one of the problems is that while everyone seems to want a playoff, no one can agree on the structure. At the moment, an eight team playoff seems to be the most popular, but some are arguing for a four or sixteen team playoff. Four teams is clearly not enough to have a true playoff, and sixteen would dilute the value of the regular season. For example, Oklahoma and USC are ranked fifth and sixth in the BCS, but most people would concede that those two teams are just as deserving as number three Texas. Well, at least USC is, since Texas already beat Oklahoma. As far as having sixteen teams, just consider that Michigan State and TCU are ranked 15th and 16th, respectively. While both are solid teams, most would agree that including three teams each from the Big Ten (also: Penn State, Ohio State) and MWC (also: Utah, BYU) is a little excessive.

Location also seems to be a concern. Where would these playoff games be held? Would the fans be able to travel with such short notice? It doesn’t seem to be an issue in other sports, but for some reason it keeps coming up in this debate. The NFL and NCAA Final Four fans seem to manage with the uncertainty, and I don’t see why it would be a problem for a college football playoff. As long as a clear bracket was established, fans would know in advance where their team might end up.

Other concerns such as “hurting student athletes” by extending the season are ludicrous. All other divisions of college football have a playoff, and most of those schools have more of an emphasis on academics than the college football factories.

Perhaps the BCS proponents’ strongest argument is the most basic one: it’s all about money. Since the inception of the BCS, college football has never been more popular. Television networks are falling over themselves trying to secure the rights to televise games. More and more schools are expanding their stadiums and adding luxury suites. College football is bringing in more money than ever. With a playoff, would people still tune in to the regular season?

First of all, I don’t believe that an eight team playoff would be all that dilutive to the regular season. Winning a conference title is still a major accomplishment, and fans will continue to tune in to see those games. Most big-time programs have several heated rivalries, and with the small number of games per year, each individual game carries huge importance. One argument against a playoff system is that fans will lose interest in these late-season games (such as Penn State losing to Iowa) because they will lack the drama of an elimination-type game. However, I could argue that the BCS makes virtually every game meaningless. Once your team loses, it is basically eliminated from contention. What reason do you have to watch the games of other teams after your team loses?

Of course, that is not true. Michigan and Tennessee still have packed houses for their games despite horrific seasons. Fans will continue to watch games like Penn State-Iowa because they love college football and the game has a significant factor in deciding the conference championship.

The biggest reason for a playoff goes beyond money (and the millions a playoff would generate) because college football (and sports in general) is about more than that. Players play to win. This isn’t gymnastics. Style points shouldn’t matter. Decide the outcome on the field. How can you tell a 12-0 Utah or Ball State “congrats on winning all your games, now enjoy the Humanitarian Bowl”? Don’t they deserve a chance to play for it all? How do you tell an 11-1 USC that their 11-1 isn’t as good as Florida or Oklahoma’s?

At some point you have to look past all the fluff to see the truth, and truth is that college football needs a playoff.

11/8 Weekend Preview

2008-11-07T11:43:00.000-05:00

This week’s college football schedule has already produced a few noteworthy results. Ball State continues to roll, with Northern Illinois their latest victim. The have allowed less than 10 points per game in their last four wins while averaging nearly 35 points on offense. As I mentioned a few weeks ago, Ball State’s two toughest games are still yet to come, with Central Michigan and Western Michigan (both 7-2) looming at the end of the season. Even if the Cardinals run the table (including the MAC Championship game) it’s hard to envision them ending up anywhere other than the Motor City Bowl.

In ACC conference play, Virginia Tech ‘upset’ Maryland (even though the Hokies were favored and playing at home) which confirmed that Maryland simply does not belong in the upper tier of the ACC. Then again, who can really separate the ACC into tiers? The only team that clearly has no chance of winning the conference is NC State, sitting in the cellar with a 0-4 conference record. Even Duke (1-3) has only one more conference loss than Coastal division leader Georgia Tech (4-2). In fact, every team except for NC State has either two or three conference losses. If I had to pick a favorite, I might go with North Carolina. They host Georgia Tech this weekend, and finish up with Maryland, NC State and Duke.

BCS haters all over the country were tuned in to Utah-TCU last night (well, those who have CBS College Sports Network…huh?), where the two Mountain West teams had a hard-fought, low-scoring game that ended in a 13-10 win for the Utes. TCU was favored by 3 points, despite Utah’s undefeated record and home field advantage. However, they were undone by two late missed field goals and a gut-wrenching, game-winning Utah touchdown drive in the final minute. Utah now has three relatively solid wins (Oregon State, Air Force, TCU) but even a win over 8-1 BYU probably won’t be enough evidence for a solid title game argument. However, a BCS bowl berth is certainly a possibility. Utah only needs to finish in the BCS top 12 (they are currently ranked 8th) so if Utah wins out, they will certainly receive a BCS bowl bid.

As far as the weekend games, I would not be surprised to be see all three of the top ranked teams lose. #1 Alabama is heading to Death Valley to play LSU, and while LSU has struggled against top opponents (Florida, Georgia) this game will have a completely different feel due the emotion of Nick Saban returning to LSU. The general consensus among LSU fans is that they appreciate what he did for the school, but they have no respect for him. This game will definitely be tougher than it appears on paper for the Tide.

#2 Texas Tech hosts Oklahoma State, and the big question will be whether they can keep the momentum going after the huge Texas win. The Red Raiders are only three point favorites, so Vegas isn’t expecting them to run away with it. Oklahoma State has a strong running game and could surprise Texas Tech. #3 Penn State is on the road this week, and they will face Iowa. Clearly Iowa isn’t as much of a challenge as the two previous teams’ opponents, but Iowa may be a tad underrated. They have a great running back, and all four of their losses have come by a touchdown or less.

As I mentioned before, the winner of North Carolina-Georgia Tech will have the inside track to the Coastal division championship, and North Carolina has to be happy that they will have home field advantage. Virginia and Wake Forest also face off in what could be an elimination game. Even though they are in different divisions, both teams cannot afford another loss at this point in the season.

Tennessee and Auburn will have the opportunity to get a win, although for their offenses nothing is easy at this point. Tennessee hosts Wyoming, while Auburn welcomes Tennessee-Martin. If either one of those teams loses, expect immediate rioting.

Thanks for the Memories

2008-11-03T21:50:00.005-05:00

So it's official - Phillip Fulmer is out as coach of the Tennessee Volunteers. I can't say that I didn't expect this would happen, but what is surprising is how I feel about it.

After the Alabama game, I was ready to join the throngs calling for Fulmer's head. Tennessee had once again failed to defeat a hated rival, and the Vols were pretty much trounced in the process. And unfortunately, it wasn't anything new. The Vols' failures against their "Big Three" rivals (Georgia, Florida, Alabama) is well documented. They have managed only three victories against the trio in their last twelve attempts.

The team's early season offensive woes can be partially attributed to Jonathan Crompton, who disappointed many Vols fans that expected him to come in and pick up where Erik Ainge left off, but he certainly doesn't deserve all of the blame. The offensive line has also been a huge disappointment, which left Tennessee's talented group of running backs unable to break free. Even special teams has dipped this year, with last year's freshman sensation kicker Daniel Lincoln taking huge steps backward this year. He is barely converting 50% of field goal tries after connecting on 75% of his tries last year.

The defense has been one of the lone bright spots this season. Safety Eric Berry leads the nation in interceptions and the defense is currently ranked 11th in the nation in yards allowed per game. Sure, part of that ranking might be that the opposition is constantly getting the ball in good field position, but it's still a notable achievement. When watching the Vols play, you can tell that the defense is talented and never gives up, even when the offense is sputtering.

In any case, after watching Tennessee fall to Alabama again, I was ready to write Fulmer off. However, after watching this past week's game against South Carolina I started to realize that a coach can only take his team so far. Players have to execute, and the bottom line all season (at least for the offense) has been a failure to execute. Fulmer didn't throw that ill-advised interception that was returned for a touchdown. He didn't fumble at his own 4 yard line (which led to another SC touchdown) or continually drop passes, miss blocks, or make stupid penalties. Sure, coaching should improve players' performances and reduce stupid mistakes, but again, there is only so much he can do.

One of Phillip Fulmer's best attributes over the years has been his recruiting. Three of his last seven classes have been ranked in the top 4 (according to rivals.com) with two others in the top twenty. Even amidst all the controversy this season, Tennessee's 2009 recruiting class is currently rated sixth in the nation. How many of those recruits will Tennessee lose when Fulmer leaves? Verbal commit Jarvis Giles, rated the number two all-purpose back in the country and from Florida no less, has already expressed concern over Fulmer's departure.

I'm sure that everyone recalls Penn State's dark days just a few years ago. During the five year 2000-2004 stretch, Penn State only made ONE bowl game, which they lost. Penn State endured two consecutive 9th place Big Ten finishes (with three total conference wins in that span) before rebounding to an 11-1 2005 season, complete with a BCS bowl win. As I'm sure you are aware, this year Penn State has a fairly clear path to a 12-0 season and a possible appearance in the National Championship game. JoePa heard the cries for his head, but the university stuck by him in those tough times and now he is showing the country that he and his team still have it.

College football is a cyclical game, and in a sport where stars and benchwarmers alike come and go in a few short seasons, continuity has to be worth something. One merely has to look at the messes in Auburn and Clemson to see that constantly changing the coaching staff doesn't always generate instant success.

For every Alabama Saban-like turnaround, how many Bill Callahan (Nebraska) disasters do you have? Jim Tressel was able to take Ohio State to the next level after his predecessor John Cooper couldn't seem to beat Michigan, but when Michigan tried the same thing after Lloyd Carr... Well, just look at the mess they have with Rich Rodriguez.

It's easy to pile on Phillip Fulmer right now, but I think fans and neutral observers alike can agree that Fulmer gave everything he had to Tennessee and deserved more on his way out. Many people will remember the outpouring of support that Fulmer received from famous Tennessee alums (including Peyton Manning) last season when his job security appeared to be on the ropes, but it became a moot issue when the Vols rallied to appear in the SEC Championship. By all accounts, he has the same support among his current players.

The SEC has grown exponentially over the last few years in talent (both players and coaches) and, fair or not, Fulmer often appeared to be a lumbering dinosaur against the likes of Urban Meyer and Mark Richt. However, I shudder at the thought of an Auburn-like spread disaster at Tennessee, and I can only hope the school's leadership has a solid plan for who they want to bring in to take over the reins. As a life-long Vol fan, I can barely remember the pre-Fulmer era, and it will certainly take awhile to get used to seeing someone else roaming those sidelines.

Administrative Announcement

2008-11-03T16:35:00.001-05:00

I’ve made a slight format change to the site. I will continue to use this space to write about college football (and basketball to some degree) but my talents on professional sports have been pried away to the esteemed OneGameOut.

Please check them out for my musings on the NFL, NBA, MLB, soccer, racing, hockey, and various other shenanigans and random observations.

That way this site can remain true to its original intent – writing about how great the SEC is!

College Football Weekend Preview

2008-10-31T15:45:00.002-04:00

In an announcement that is sure to crush and disappoint many of you, my weekly college football rankings are suspended for this week, due to a complete lack of teams worthy of filling out the full list.

Seriously, who belongs in the top 25? I can only count about 16 teams that clearly deserve that distinction. Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, and Texas from the Big 12; Alabama, Georgia, and Florida from the SEC, Penn State and Ohio State from the Big Ten, USC from the Pac 10, and undefeated Utah, Boise State, Tulsa and Ball State. Throw in once-beaten TCU and that gets you a grand total of 15 teams. I think LSU, Missouri and Michigan State could have compelling arguments, but beyond that, I’m at a loss.

The Big East and ACC are tripping over themselves as they rush out of the Top 25. Last week, Boston College, Florida State and Georgia Tech appeared in the top 25, with Virginia Tech just outside the rankings. Three of those teams lost last week, so now all of a sudden North Carolina and Maryland are the flavors of the week. And this is despite Maryland’s early season loss to Middle Tennessee State, who is 1-6 in games not against Maryland. Florida State appears to have the best resume out of the ACC with wins over Miami and Virginia Tech, but the 12-3 home loss to Wake Forest is hard to ignore. Virginia currently leads the ACC Coastal division, but they are carrying THREE blowout losses, including one to Duke!

The Big East is even worse. South Florida and Pitt were the Big East top 25 representatives, but both managed to lose last weekend. Voters appear poised to send West Virginia (currently ranked 26th) into the top 25, despite the fact they have yet to beat a team that currently has a winning record. Well, unless you count CAA conference member Villanova.

Another team that has no business in the top 25 is Minnesota (AP #20). Sure, Minnesota is 7-1, but they haven’t beat single team with a winning record. Hell, they gave up 23 points at home to Montana State. Montana State couldn’t even manage 20 in losses to Weber State and Eastern Washington. I guess someone has to be in the top 25, but I’m protesting until teams start to prove themselves.

This weekend has a few exciting games, but the overall slate isn’t too appealing. Georgia-Florida has generated the most headlines, especially in the wake of last year’s ‘controversial’ touchdown celebration/field-rushing. The winner of this game should take the SEC East and will probably be favorites to win the SEC. Alabama will be the SEC West representatives, but I feel that they may have peaked and may be a tad over-rated. The only other noteworthy matchup is Texas-Texas Tech. Both teams are undefeated, so the winner will have a huge edge in the Big 12 South race. If Texas wins, they will have defeated their three principal South rivals (Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech) and will effectively have a two game lead with only three left to play.

In news that few people will care about, Tennessee will be fighting for their bowl lives as they take on Steve Spurrier and South Carolina. A win would still give Tennessee a chance to finish with a winning record and a bowl game, as they only have Wyoming, Vanderbilt and Kentucky left on the schedule after this week.

Two other similar matchups are happening in the SEC this weekend. Auburn and Ole Miss square off, both with 4-4 records. The winner will keep bowl hopes alive, the loser will likely be done for the year. Kentucky and Mississippi State play under the same circumstances. Kentucky is 5-3, while Mississippi State is 3-5, but both have a 1-3 SEC record. If Kentucky can pull out a win, they conceivably could win eight games this year, with Vanderbilt and Tennessee still on the schedule. Yes, that was painful for me to admit. I’m going to go get a beer…

College Football Rankings - 10/22

2008-10-22T21:09:00.005-04:00

1. Texas (AP #1) – Texas can claim two wins over big-time opponents (Oklahoma, Missouri) that are bigger than any other pair of wins in the country. Outside of those two shootouts, Texas has not allowed more than 14 points in a game, while racking up at least 38 points in every game.

2. Alabama AP #2) – Alabama seems to lose focus in the second half. They have allowed their last three opponents to crawl back into games after staking big first half leads. Tennessee will give them everything they have in another huge rivalry game.

3. Penn State (AP #3) – The good: Penn State has scored 38 points or more in every contest except one (20-6 win over Purdue) and allowed more than 17 points only once (38-24 win over Illinois). The bad: Penn State’s best wins are over Oregon State and Illinois. Their last three Big Ten opponents have a combined one conference win. Penn State may not be ready for a slugfest with Ohio State this weekend.

4. Florida (AP #5) – Still dangerous with Tebow at the helm. The Gators will have to be careful not to overlook Kentucky, with Georgia looming around the corner.

5. USC (AP #6) – Everyone seems to have forgotten the OSU demolition derby in the wake of USC’s Oregon State loss. Without a single true ‘test’ remaining, USC could sneak into the BCS title game amidst the SEC and Big 12 cannibalization.

6. Oklahoma (AP #4) – Maybe I was wrong about TCU being a ‘cake’ win. However, the defense is still a concern for Oklahoma.

7. Georgia (AP #9) – Georgia is still lacking that marquee win, but will have an excellent opportunity to get one when they travel to Baton Rouge this weekend to face LSU.

8. Ohio State (AP #10) – Is Ohio State this good, or was Michigan State that bad? The Spartans may have lied down a little at the end of that game, but the scoreline is impressive nonetheless. While I don’t expect Ohio State to make it all the way back to the BCS title game, a win over Penn State this weekend could ensure them a Rose Bowl berth.

9. Oklahoma State (AP #7) – Oklahoma State’s party could be over. Texas is coming to town, and if history is any indication, it won’t be pretty. Other than their win over Missouri, Oklahoma State has yet to face a reputable team.

10. LSU (AP #11) – The Tigers gutted out a tough road win at South Carolina after enduring a beatdown at the hands of the Gators. As mentioned above, this weekend is key game, as Georgia comes to Death Valley.

11. Utah (AP #12) – To be honest, I struggled with finding a team qualified for this ranking. Utah seems to have the best resume, with a couple of decent wins (Oregon State, Air Force) and no losses. Utah still has to play TCU and BYU, so if they win those games, Utah will be hard to ignore.

12. Missouri (AP #16) – Sure, they got crushed by Texas, but how many of these teams further down this list could hang with the Longhorns? I may be acting overly generous here, but until Texas Tech beats Missouri, I won’t rank Missouri behind them.

13. Texas Tech (AP #8) – When your best win is in overtime against Nebraska, it’s going to take awhile for me to warm up to you. Like I mentioned last week, four straight games against ranked teams will give the Red Raiders all the chances the need to make a statement.

14. Boise State (AP #13) – Boise State is clinging to that Oregon win, because it’s the only thing that will keep them afloat in the rankings for the rest of the season. A single loss will probably see them fall out of the top 25.

15. Pitt (AP #17) – A dark horse of sorts since losing their opener to Bowling Green, Pitt has slowly crept back into the thick of the race. Their early season win over Iowa is looking a little better, and even last week’s win over Navy is better than several teams ahead of them can claim.

16. Vanderbilt (AP #28)– Hanging with a top five or ten team shouldn’t plummet a team in the rankings, so I’ll leave Vanderbilt in roughly the same spot after they lost to Georgia last week.

17. Tulsa (AP #22) – Any team that scores 77 points has to be considered dangerous. Tulsa only has one game left against a team with a winning record (Houston) so I don’t expect Tulsa to improve its position.

18. Michigan State (AP #29) – Why the polls have Michigan State out of the ranking but Northwestern in the top 25 is beyond me, especially when you consider that Michigan State already beat Northwestern. Handily.

19. Georgia Tech (AP #21) – Georgia Tech may be taking steps to prove itself as the ACC front-runner. However, their remaining schedule is pretty brutal, as all five opponents have winning records.

20. TCU (AP #15) – TCU surprised everyone by crushing BYU. They have allowed more than seven points in only two games (Oklahoma loss, 31-14 win over Stanford). The competition, however, has been less than stiff.

21. Boston College (AP #23) – It could be a virtual tossup between GT, BC, and VT. Boston College beat Virginia Tech, but lost to Georgia Tech. Naturally, Virginia Tech beat Georgia Tech.

22. Virginia Tech (AP #27) – See above, but throw in a disappointing loss to East Carolina.

23. South Florida (AP #14) - Overrated in my book. A close early season win over Kansas is all that’s keeping them in the rankings.

24. Ball State (AP #20) – They do have a win over Navy, and at 7-0 they deserve a little bit of recognition. Their last two games (Central Michigan, Western Michigan) will be their hardest.

25. Kansas (AP #19) – Because there’s no one else, except maybe for Florida State.

Dropped out:
BYU – Some impressive scorelines, but against absolutely no competition. The demolition by TCU left no reason for them to be in the Top 25

Cal – Lost at Arizona (who lost to Stanford and New Mexico earlier this year) 42-27.

Oregon – Idle last week, but the OT win over a now-slumping Purdue didn’t seem reason enough to ignore the blowout loss to USC and close loss to Boise State.

North Carolina – Already on thin ice as it was, OT loss to Virginia shoved them out.

College Football Rankings

2008-10-15T22:46:00.003-04:00

At their very core, polls and ranking are incredibly meaningless. Most teams move up only if the team in front of them loses. It a team loses, they fall below every other team with the same number of losses. Generally, a team ranked in the top 5 that goes undefeated will have a much easier time reaching the national championship than an unranked team that goes undefeated.

To make matters worse, these polls comprise the majority of the formula that selects the two participants for the national championship game. My main problem is that voters are simply illogical. For example, after Florida lost to Ole Miss a couple of weeks ago, they moved out of the top ten and fell behind South Florida. In what world is South Florida a better team than Florida? Naturally, South Florida lost their next game, dropped in the rankings and order was restored.

I'll attempt to take a slightly more logical approach here - combining record, performance and strength of schedule.

1. Alabama (AP #2) - I was down on Alabama before the season started, but as one of only five remaining undefeated BCS schools, Alabama has done the most to distinguish itself. The demolition of Clemson looks less and less impressive, but Alabama was absolutely clinical in dismantling Georgia. The Tide won't have another true test until 11/8 @LSU.

2. Penn State (AP #3) - Also undefeated, Penn State hasn't really been pushed, including an impressive 48-7 win over Wisconsin. Nittany Lions fans have October 25 circled on their calenders - when Penn State travels to Columbus to face the Buckeyes.

3. Texas (AP #1) - The win over Oklahoma was nice, but Texas hasn't played any other decent teams this season. With its next two games at home against Missouri and Oklahoma State, I will certainly be willing to bump them up if they give impressive performances.

4. Florida (AP #5) - Anytime you beat the defending champions by 30 points, people have to take you seriously. The Gators are prone to their share of inconsistency (see: Ole Miss) but they have the talent to match up with any team in the country.

5. Georgia (AP #10) - The Bulldogs had one bad half, but after watching them dominate Tennessee, I'm a believer. Sure, most teams could dominate Tennessee at this point, but the combination of Stafford and Moreno is tough to beat. Three consecutive games against ranked SEC opponents (Vanderbilt, @LSU, Florida) will tell the story for this team.

6. USC (AP #6) - USC will always have one or two letdowns a year, but it's hard to argue that teams like Oklahoma State and Texas Tech are better than USC. Outside of their surprising loss at Oregon State, USC has allowed a total of only 20 points in their four wins.

7. Oklahoma (AP #4) - The Sooners best win thus far has come against TCU, which isn't saying very much. Kansas will provide a tougher test this weekend, but without Missouri on the schedule, Oklahoma should breeze to an 11-1 record without much effort, even with games against Texas Tech and Oklahoma State.

8. Oklahoma State (AP #8) - They sure don't play much defense. OK State actually allowed more points against Troy and Texas A&M than they did against Missouri, so it remains to be seen if Oklahoma State is for real. A trip to Texas in two weeks should shed some light.

9. Missouri (AP #11) - Like Oklahoma State next week, Missouri faces a huge test against Texas this weekend. The win over Illinois is nice on their resume, because it's pretty barren otherwise. After Texas, Missouri has four consecutive games against the Big 12 'have-nots' so regardless of what happens against Texas, they'll probably end up back in the Top Ten.

10. LSU (AP #13) - Perhaps hard to justify ranking the Tigers here after they were so thoroughly dominated by Florida, but I couldn't in good conscience rank them behind unproven commodities like Utah and BYU. The defending national champs deserve a little bit of leeway, but games against Georgia and Alabama in the next month will ultimately decide their fate.

11. Michigan State (AP #20) - I'm somewhat surprised that Michigan State is ranked so low in the polls. They lost a tight one at Cal to start the season and have flown under the radar since then, with their only notable win a thrashing of Notre Dame. However, Javon Ringer is a true game-breaker for them. The Spartans host Ohio State this weekend, so we'll see if my opinion is justified.

12. Texas Tech (AP #7) - I'm not ready to completely respect Texas Tech. Their best win is over Kansas State, and they need overtime to beat Nebraska. Unfortunately for them, the hard part of their schedule is just beginning. Kansas, Texas, OK State, and Oklahoma await.

13. Utah (AP #14) - They are 7-0 with wins over Michigan and Oregon State, both of whom have pulled off some surprising wins of their own. They have arguably a better resume than Texas Tech, but I don't feel like changing it now.

14. BYU (AP #9) - Like Utah, undefeated. However, they lack any signature wins. Washington and UCLA don't carry the same weight as Utah's wins.

15. Ohio State (AP #12) - Maybe I'm being too hard on the Buckeyes, but they will have the chance to change public perception with upcoming back-to-back tough games against Michigan State and Penn State. For what it's worth, their best win is...Minnesota.

16. Boise State (AP #15) - Boise State boasts a nice road win over Oregon, but unfortunately there is little else to base their performance. With only three remaining games against teams with winning records (and hardly intimidating teams at that - San Jose State, Fresno State, and New Mexico State) it is safe to assume that we'll know as much about Boise State at the end of the season as we do now.

17. Vanderbilt (AP #22) - Ok, the SEC Bias is showing a little on this one. However, three SEC wins, including the pressure-packed win over Auburn, should be enough to earn their place in the top 25. Their performance at Georgia this weekend will show their true colors. A close loss might even move them up in my rankings.

18. Virginia Tech (AP #17) - The Hokies have quietly reeled off 5 straight wins, including Georgia Tech and North Carolina, since being shocked at home by East Carolina.

19. Cal (AP #25) - Close win over Michigan State to start the season has been overshadowed by their loss at schizophrenic Maryland. They also handled Arizona State two weeks ago.

20. Oregon (AP #33) - With two losses (USC, Boise St) Oregon is not receiving much love right now. They do have a road win over Purdue, and with upcoming road games at Arizona State and Cal, Oregon will have a chance to make a name for themselves.

21. Tulsa (AP #26) - Tulsa could be this year's Hawaii. They have scored 37 points or more in each of their six victories, although they have only held teams to under 20 points one time. Working against them is the fact that they have yet to beat a team with a winning record, but from here on out they only play two more teams with losing records. A trip to Arkansas could give them a 'name' win, even though Arkansas is lower-tier SEC team right now.

22. South Florida (AP #19) - They were shocked at home by Pitt, but South Florida carries a win over Kansas on its resume. They should challenge for the Big East title, but is that saying much?

23. Kansas (AP #16) - Kansas has made a living beating up on cupcake schools. Their best win is at home against Colorado, and they failed to score a 'big' win at South Florida. Back-to-back games against Oklahoma and Texas Tech will likely see the Jayhawks exposed as pretenders.

24. Pitt (AP #23) - Similar to Virginia Tech, Pitt has won four in a row since blowing their home opener to Bowling Green. Other than the South Florida win, though, their resume is pretty thin.

25. North Carolina (AP #18) - I'll be honest, I have no idea which ACC teams are good and which aren't. Right now, there are six ACC teams with only one loss. So this spot could just as easily go to Wake Forest or Georgia Tech.

Others receiving consideration - South Carolina, Cincinnati, Ball State, Georgia Tech, Minnesota, Wake Forest

Refuting the Illogical

2008-10-14T11:48:00.001-04:00

Look, I understand that controversy sells. Say something that is blatantly wrong with enough brashness and you know that you will annoy anyone with common sense. There’s really nothing like saying something idiotic (The sun is blue!) and then refusing the listen to any logical arguments to the contrary.

I give you the case of one Gregg Easterbrook. The guys has basically made his living doing this, but last week he went a step further and claimed that Eli Manning was now a better quarterback than Peyton Manning. Seriously?

Here is one example: “Well, ponder this: Eli Manning is now a better quarterback than Peyton Manning. At the current rate, his career achievements will at least match, and perhaps surpass, his big brother's.”

What career achievements? The only comparable career achievement is Super Bowl wins: Both have one. So yes, if you extrapolate that over Eli’s career, statistically Eli might end up with more. But other than that, I don’t see how the two are anywhere close to comparable. And keep in mind that quarterbacks like Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson have also won Super Bowls.

Mr. Easterbrook claims that “[i]n terms of passing stats, the two players are approximately the same”. Really? Let’s take a deeper look into these approximately similar stats. For comparison’s sake, let’s throw out both players’ rookie season (Peyton’s was much better, by the way).

After his rookie season, Peyton rolled off six straight 4000+ yard seasons, with his QB rating never dropping below 84. In Eli’s first three full seasons (including last season’s Super Bowl win) his highest QB rating was 77 and his highest passing total was 3762.

In Peyton’s entire career, he has never averaged less than 7.0 yards per attempt in a season. Eli’s best average was 6.8 yards per attempt. In each of Peyton’s first three non-rookie seasons, he completed 62% of his passes. Since those three seasons, he has not dropped below 65%. Eli has yet to approach 60% in any season.

In Peyton’s entire career (again, excluding rookie season) he has thrown more than 15 interceptions only twice. Eli has already done it three times, in each of his first three full seasons.

These differences might seem insignificant, but when every Peyton Manning pass goes for an average of 1.5 yards further and he completes maybe three or four more passes per game (given the same number of throws) that is a pretty huge advantage. Throw in Peyton’s clear decision-making advantage and the intangible benefits of his vast knowledge of the offensive playbook and audibles, and Peyton is giving his team a significant advantage every time he steps on the field.

While it’s true that Peyton did not win any playoff games until his sixth season, he did lead the Colts into the playoffs in his second and third seasons. Eli achieved the same feat, leading the Giants into the playoffs in his second and third seasons. What people seem to forget is that since Peyton Manning took over as quarterback, the Colts have missed the playoffs only twice, and not since 2001.

What the Giants did last season was amazing, and Eli has played well this season (with the exception of last night’s bed-crapping against the Browns) but can you really argue that Eli is a better quarterback than Peyton? I mean, he didn’t even make the Pro Bowl last year and his team won the Super Bowl! That should say something about how good Eli is.

I’m not saying that Eli Manning won’t turn out to be a good quarterback, but based on what we’ve seen from him so far, I think it’s a little early to declare that he’ll have a better career than a guy who is without question one of the top quarterbacks of the last decade, if not the best.

(Note: In today's article, Mr. Easterbrook made no reference to the fact that his new golden child just threw 3 picks in a terrible loss to the Browns, while Peyton Manning had another stellar, mistake-free game as the Colts trounced Baltimore 31-3)

Long Live the Fighting Nerds!

2008-10-07T10:59:00.002-04:00

Congratulations Vanderbilt – you finally did it…

It’s been a long time coming, but Vanderbilt is finally establishing itself as a decent football team. Thanks to their 5-0 record and the nationally televised win over Auburn, the Commodores have rocketed up the rankings to #13 in the AP poll. Many of the computer rankings that are used to calculate the BCS rankings have them ever higher. It’s a virtual lock that they will qualify for a bowl (thanks to a home game against Duke), and at this point, it’s entirely feasible that Vanderbilt could win 8 or 9 games. Or is it…?

Does anyone remember the rapid ascension of South Carolina and Kentucky in last year’s polls? By week seven, the two teams were ranked #6 and #8, respectively, in AP Poll. The following week, both teams suffered losses that sent them into a downward spiral. Kentucky would then lose three of its next four to finish 7-5 before rallying to win its bowl game against a depleted Florida State, while South Carolina lost its next four to finish 6-6 and didn’t even go to a bowl.

Apparently Las Vegas is not convinced that the ‘Dores are for real either. Vanderbilt is currently a 3 point underdog in its road trip to Mississippi State, although the line did open at Even. With upcoming games against Georgia, Tennessee and Florida, not to mention road trips to Kentucky and a ranked Wake Forest team, Vanderbilt’s run may be at an end. They’ll certainly have the opportunity to make their case, but talk about Vanderbilt being an SEC ‘contender’ needs to stop right now. If they beat Georgia next week, then we’ll talk…

A few other lines worth noting:
Clemson at Wake Forest: -2.5
Clemson has been struggling lately, but they destroyed Wake Forest last year 44-10. Wake Forest isn’t exactly playing its best football, as they’re coming off of an embarrassing home loss to Navy.

Tennessee at Georgia: -13
Tennessee absolutely dismantled Georgia in their last meeting. The game was a mirror image of last week’s Georgia-Alabama game, when Tennessee raced to a 35-0 lead. I don’t expect that too happen this week, though, especially with all instability at the QB position. One thing to keep in mind: Tennessee’s defense is underrated. In fact, no team has gained over 300 yards of total offense against the Vols, despite their three losses.

LSU at Florida: -4
Florida is coming off a disappointing loss that exposed them as a two-man team (Tebow and Percy Harvin). LSU hasn’t really wowed anyone, which some might find surprising considering their #4 ranking. However, close wins over Mississippi State and an overrated Auburn team clearly haven’t impressed Vegas.

Penn State at Wisconsin: +5
The Great Nittany Hope of the Big Ten is a deserved favorite. Wisconsin is coming off of back to back heartbreakers against Michigan and Ohio State, while Penn State has been nothing short of spectacular. Their upcoming three-game stretch (Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio State) could cement their status as top dawg. I expect Penn State to handle the Badgers, but they’ve disappointed before…

Arkansas at Auburn: -19.5
Auburn can barely score 19 points if you give them two games, so I’m skeptical that they could beat anyone with a pulse (ie not LA-Monroe) by more than 19 points. Arkansas is pretty gawd-awful, though, and could be just what the doctor ordered for the Tigers’ ailing offense.

Tennessee-Auburn Second Half

2008-09-27T18:50:00.001-04:00

And let’s start up the second half!

15:00 – Auburn takes over on its own 20 after a touchback. They just flashed the passing numbers for the first half. Pretty paltry on both sides.

13:35 – Tennessee sack by Ben Martin! Auburn will have to punt after a three-and-out. The Vols will take over at their 35.

10:45 – Despite getting one first down (thanks to a penalty) Tennessee will have to punt at midfield. Nice punt! Downed at the three yard line. Maybe Auburn will fumble into their own end zone…

9:56 – I hate how the Auburn offense all stands up on the line of scrimmage and looks over to the coaches. It just looks weird…

8:50 – Nice defensive sequence, and Auburn goes nowhere. Auburns punts from their own end zone and it’s downed at Auburn’s 45. If Tennessee can’t do anything with this field position, they don’t deserve to win.

7:30 – Arian Foster is stopped just short of a first down on third down. Tennessee will punt from the Auburn 36. Lame… But, the punt goes out at the Auburn 3, so basically we’ll just repeat the last Auburn drive.

6:30 – So much for that theory. Auburn gets back to back first downs and Auburn is out to the 30. Chris Todd was able to complete a lob pass that should have been picked off at the ten yard line.

5:30 – Great…a QB scramble for a first down, followed by a personal foul out-of-bounds hit. Auburn is now on Tennessee’s 45.

4:30 – Chris Todd has all day to throw, but it’s picked off!! Dennis Rogan takes it all the way to the Auburn 37!

3:50 – The UT offense is just woeful. Back-to-back rushes net a loss of four yards. 3rd and 14.

3:08 – Ohh! Crompton scrambles and gets a first down, but he forgets to slide and gets nailed. Tennessee is within field goal range, but they need a touchdown.

1:50 – Gerald Jones has moves. Out of the G-Gun, he runs all the way across the field and back and nearly gets a first down on what should have been a loss.

1:00 – After a personal foul facemask penalty, Tennessee has first and goal.

0:00 – The third quarter ends, with Tennessee facing a third and goal on the two yard. Phillip Fulmer will have a little extra time to come up with a play here. Not that Hardesty up the middle will take him much time to come up with…

14:55 – Touchdown Hardesty!! Sweep left, and Hardesty outruns Auburn to the corner of the end zone. Tennessee decides to go for two, but Auburn sniffs it out. Auburn leads 14-12. I’d like to think they could have come up with a better play than a pass that doesn’t even go into the end zone on the two-point try. If Auburn scores another touchdown, Tennessee will be down two scores, but a UT field goal would still take the lead.

14:00 – Auburn faces a critical third and four. Bad pass, and Auburn will punt from their 35 yardline. Even if it had been completed, Tennessee probably would have stopped them short of the marker.

13:30 – Gerald Jones on the return! He takes it all the way to the Auburn 38. It looked like he signaled for a fair catch, but maybe he was just blocking the sun.

12:30 – Good defense by Auburn. Tennessee can do nothing, and they actually lose yards. A dropped screen pass hurt them, and once again the offense sputters. Tennessee decides to punt and Auburn takes over at their 11 after a fair catch. What a wasted opportunity…

11:00 – Both teams are looking poor offensively. Auburn faces third and long after Tennessee blows up a toss play.

10:50 – Auburn completes the pass, but it’s well short of the first down. Expect another punt here… and Gerald Jones returns it to the 42.

9:00 – Third and four, and another terrible Crompton pass. The throw goes well out of bounds, and once again Tennessee will have to punt after another three and out. They really need to take advantage of this field position at some point…

7:45 – This is one of the worst games I’ve ever watched. Auburn will punt on 4th and 18, after another three and out. Maybe these teams should get points for punts. The punt is downed on Auburn’s 45 yard line. This is starting to feel like déjà vu…

6:10 – You have got to be %#%@ kidding me. Tennessee fails again on third down. Another punt, and Auburn takes over on the 20.

5:55 – Burns is back in at quarterback for Auburn. He can scramble, but doesn’t seem to throw very well.

4:40 – Burns runs on three straight plays for negative yards, and once again Tennessee will get the ball back. The Vols take over near midfield.

3:20 – Crompton’s numbers for the day: 8/22 for 67 yards. Needless to say, Tennessee goes three and out after the pressure rattles Crompton on second and third down. I have no more adjectives to describe the shittiness that I am witnessing. Cunningham is Tennessee’s MVP right now, and his punt is downed on the five yard line.

2:14 – Auburn faces a third and five after a nice run by Mario Fannin to avoid losing yardage. A first down here might win the game for Auburn. Timeout on the field…

2:14 (still) – Did Tennessee just call back to back timeouts? I’m confused…If so, that is beyond stupid…

2:00 – And Auburn converts… This must be game over…Tennessee is out of timeouts. Nice pass by Burns, and I think that’s Auburn’s only first down of the quarter.

0:00 – Auburn kneels down, and that’s it. No additional comments needed. Just awful...

Tennessee-Auburn: First Half

2008-09-27T17:08:00.001-04:00

Auburn! Tennessee! Gametime!

If the last three games have been any indication, expect lots of Tennessee penalties, missed tackles and underthrown passes. Auburn’s offense hasn’t exactly been firing on all cylinders either lately, with only two offensive touchdowns in their last two games.

This could be an ugly one. Maybe not 3-2 ugly, but I doubt that both teams will hit 20 points.

15:00 – Kickoff! Tennessee receives a short kick and gets out a few yards to the 25 yard line. No penalties or fumbles so far. Not a bad start.

14:48 – Wow, Arian Foster up the middle for a three yard gain on first down. I think we’ll see a lot of that today.

14:00 – Auburn only rushes four and still gets pressure on third and long, forcing a Tennessee three-and-out. The punt is shanked and Auburn gets the ball on their own 45.

12:30 – On third down, an Auburn receiver runs backwards after a short catch and looked to be stopped short of the first down, but they give it to him anyway. First down, Auburn.

11:30 – Holy crap! Florida is losing to Ole Miss! 31-24 with three minutes to go.

11:15 – Nice tackle! A failed halfback pass results in about a ten yard loss, and The Auburn player’s helmet get knocked back another ten yards. Auburn has to punt and it rolls all the way to the Tennessee four yard line. Luckily it had already touched an Auburn player and Tennessee takes over near the 20.

9:40 – Florida update! Florida has just scored, but the extra point is blocked. The Gators still trail 31-30.

8:40 – Bad pass on third down, and Tennessee will have to punt again. Crompton looks to be limping a little. At least they managed to get one first down on this drive. Auburn takes over on their own 30.

7:40 – Third and one coming up.

7:25 – Sigh. After about three missed tackles, Brandon Tate reels off a 15 yard gain.

5:35 – What kind of defense is that? Auburn completes a nice 15 yard pass amidst mass confusion in the UT secondary. Maybe there are getting distracted by all the arm-flapping coming from the Auburn sidelines. They must have about five different people sending in signals.

4:15 – Another Auburn first down, on a third down conversion. They’ve marched down to the Tennessee 17 yard-line.

4:00 – Final score: Ole Miss pulled it off! What does this say about Tennessee? They lose to UCLA and Florida, and those teams turn around and lose to even scrappier teams.

2:52 – Touchdown Auburn! Robert Dunn hauls in a 20 yard TD pass in the middle of the end zone, and the touted safety Eric Berry didn’t give him much resistance. Auburn leads 7-0.

2:45 – Not a bad return by Dennis Rogan. The Vols take over at the 30.

1:15 – Crompton completes his first pass of the day!! First down! Montario Hardesty follows it up with a great 15 yard run, with a nice cut and spin move.

0:00 – End of the first quarter. Tennessee ends with an incompletion as a result of a miscommunication between Crompton and receiver Denarius Moore. Of course, that was preceded by a false start. This game has been pretty boring so far…

15:00 – The second quarter starts up, and Tennessee has gotten down to the Auburn 30. Unfortunately the drive stalls and Tennessee is forced to kick a field goal. This will be about a 48 yard field goal.

14:08 – He nails it! Tennessee cuts the Auburn lead to 7-3.

12:20 – Despite the best efforts of Tim Hawthorne, Auburn is forced to punt, and Tennessee takes over at the 20. Hawthorne nearly brought in a one-handed catch on third and ten, but can’t quite reel it in.

11:15 – The G-Gun formation comes into play! Gerald Jones takes the direct snap and reels off a 22 yard run, making a couple of Auburn players miss along the way.

10:00 – A dangerous Crompton pass, and Tennessee avoids disaster. Tennessee is driving, though, and is down to the Auburn 18. Third and three coming up.

9:00 – Geez. Another bad route/miscommunication/bad throw, and it’s fourth down. 35 yard field goal attempt by Daniel Lincoln and it’s good! Auburn 7, Tennessee 6. Eventually Tennessee is going to need some touchdowns.

7:30 – Auburn stalls at midfield and will be forced to punt. It rolls all the way down to the 5 yard line and UT will take over. I wouldn’t expect much out of any drive that starts inside the ten, especially with the typically conservative UT offense.

7:00 - @%#$#%^!!!!! Arian Foster fumbles the handoff and Auburn recovers the ball in the end zone. Unbelievable. Auburn leads 14-6. It’s hard to imagine anything easier than a handoff, but somehow they screwed it up. The announcers are blaming Crompton…

5:45 – Tennessee looks dead out there. Three and out, which ends with a batted Crompton pass. Auburn takes the punt and starts from their own 35.

5:00 – Auburn’s backup QB is tearing up Tennessee. Kodi Burns is un-tackleable. At least for the guys in orange… Two defensive linemen miss sack opportunities, and somehow Burns completes a pass for a first down. This follows a 15 yard Burns QB scramble.

2:50 – Third and four inside Tennessee’s 20. The pass is dropped and Auburn will go for the field goal. 35 yard attempt…and no good!! Tennessee is still within striking distance.

1:05 – Three and out for the Vols. Crompton gets nailed on third down after a designed QB draw. Auburn will have time to add to their lead, since the punt probably won’t go over 35 yards.

0:52 – Chad Cunningham’s punt is almost blocked, but he gets it away and Auburn takes over at their 20. Auburn looks content to run out the clock.

Halftime! Tennessee is still in it, but it’s hard to see them pulling out a victory unless they can get the passing game going, or generate a turnover or two.

Beginning of the End

2008-09-27T13:23:00.003-04:00

OK, the beginning of the end has already started for Tennessee, when they only went into halftime with a 7-3 lead against UCLA despite intercepting 4 Kevin Craft passes.

However, things are about to get much, much worse for Tennessee. Fresh off an embarrassing home loss to Florida, Tennessee heads off to Auburn to face what must be a very pissed-off Tiger team. Losing a last-minute thriller to a top five team (on your home turf no less) should have these guys fired up and ready to prove themselves. But which Auburn team will show up? The team that took a 14-3 halftime lead against LSU? Or the one that was outscored 23-7 in the second half of that same game? Will it be the defense that shut out Mississippi State? Or the offense that could manage one measly field goal?

Oddsmakers don't appear to be to sure, since Auburn is currently only a 6.5 point favorite. For reference, Georgia is also a 6.5 point favorite over Alabama, and no one is writing off the Tide at this point. Tennessee has been down this road before, and they always seem to win one game that no one expects them to. Sure, they lose a lot more games they "should" win, but this looks like one of those times when they could surprise people. They were in this same position last year when they were 2-2 and ambushed a ranked Georgia team 35-14. Even in that ill-fated 5-6 2005 season the Vols managed to give LSU their only regular season loss. Maybe I'm giving myself false hope, but Auburn seems ripe for an upset.

In other big games, of course all eyes will be on Alabama-Georgia. Well, everyone who doesn't actually have plans to go out. What's with all these 8:00 kickoffs? Arkansas travels to Texas in what would have been a great game last year, but instead should be a slaughter this time around. A couple of Big Ten games could help shape the upcoming season. Rising star Penn State will hope to keep their momentum going against Illinois, while Wisconsin heads to Michigan. If either of those teams loses (especially Penn State), it will be a dark day for the Big Ten. That conference is at the end of its rope. They NEED Penn State to do well. OSU has already been embarrassed on the national stage. Michigan State always seems to be a dark horse, but the opening loss to Cal will ultimately hold them back. With Michigan in re-building mode and the rest of the teams worthless (Northwestern, Iowa, Indiana, Minnesota, Purdue) the Big Ten cannot afford for Penn State to slip up.

Small-conference fans (and SEC fans) will be cheering for TCU as they face Oklahoma. I can't claim to know much about TCU, but they're ranked in the top 25 for some reason so I guess they must be decent. Apparently going undefeated against three teams with a combined 4-9 record and a DII school is all it takes to get ranked these days.

Oh yeah, USC lost. Can't say I'm surprised. At least we don't have to hear any more talk about how this is the greatest team in the history of USC.

Well, since I'm planning to watch the Tennessee game anyway, I'll jot down some of my thoughts about it. However, if it's too painful, you may only get highlights from the first half. Go Vols...

WC 2010 Qualification Weekend Preview

2008-09-05T10:14:00.006-04:00

After a brief hiatus, World Cup 2010 qualification is about to swing back into action. With the exception of Asia, every confederation will be holding matches in the next week. Most teams will play two games, with the first generally this Saturday and the second on Wednesday.

While all the qualifying games are important, the African qualifiers have perhaps the most significance. These two games represent the last two games of the semi-final round, which will ultimately eliminate over half of the remaining teams and leave five groups of four. Cameroon and Nigeria are virtually assured of advancing, but nearly every other African nation is still fighting for the right to move to the next round. Notable teams looking especially precarious are Angola (WC ’06), Tunisia (WC ’98, ’02, ’06; ’04 Africa Cup of Nations winner) and Egypt (’06, ’08 Africa Cup of Nations winner). Given the convoluted method that the African confederation has chosen for its qualification process, it is virtually impossible to tell which teams will advance until all the games are completed.

CONCACAF is also in action this weekend, and is highlighted by the United States trip to Cuba. USA will also host Trinidad & Tobago. Two other Group 1 games (T&T – Guatemala, Guatemala – Cuba) should serve to provide some separation for the likely second-place finisher, whoever that might be. Expect the teams that performs the best in those two games to ultimately advance to the CONCACAF final round. Other key games include Mexico v. Jamaica (9/6) and Honduras v. Jamaica (9/10). Honduras will need to win at least one of its games (the other is at Canada) if they want to stay alive, after dropping a tough game at Mexico. Costa Rica should easily wins its group, and whoever else advances out of Haiti, Suriname, and El Salvador will certainly finish in last place in the final round.

The majority of soccer fans will be most excited to see the European qualification process get underway, as all teams play two games this week. With a large number of weaker teams and most teams playing ten games, each game has relatively less importance. Barring a few upsets here and there, I expect that the European qualification will proceed as it has for the last several decades. Only two Saturday games are worth mentioning: Israel-Switzerland and Austria-France. A win by Israel would give them a huge edge towards qualification right off the bat (Switzerland and Greece are the only other viable competitors) while France will look to avoid embarrassment on the road against a decent opponent. Wednesday (9/10) offers a little bit more excitement, as France will once again face a tough test, this time on its home soil against Serbia. Croatia hosts England, and you can bet that the English will be eager for some revenge after Croatia eliminated them from Euro 2008 qualifying. Portugal hosts Denmark, which is the only other highlight among a rather drab group of games.

Lastly, CONMEBOL (South America) has a few key games of its own. Argentina-Paraguay is probably the most exciting, but since it’s highly likely that both teams will advance regardless, it shouldn’t impact the overall standings. All eyes will be on Brazil, given that they are currently sitting in fifth place (which would require they to have a play-in against a CONCACAF team) and travel to face Chile on Sunday. Chile currently sits one point ahead of the Brazilians in the standings, so Brazil will be especially anxious to score some points. Another key matchup will be Colombia-Uruguay. Both teams seems to be in a constant battle to be South America’s fifth-best team, and this game could provide some needed separation for one of the sides. With Argentina, Paraguay, and Brazil typically dominating South America, Colombia and Uruguay are often left to duke it out for one the remaining slots. Colombia is currently third while Uruguay sits in sixth place, but only two points separate the teams in the standings.

Well, now that you now all the games, good luck trying to watch them on tv. As far as I know, only the USA games will be televised here, unless you get some crazy satellite channels I don't know about. USA-Cuba (9/6) will be on ESPN Classic at 8:00 and USA-T&T (9/10) will be on ESPN2 at 8:00. Enjoy!

Laces out, Dan!

2008-09-02T18:21:00.003-04:00

It’s always easy to blame the kicker, but Vol fans who watched the UCLA debacle know that the blame can’t all be heaped onto Daniel Lincoln. Sure, he missed three field goals (four, if you include one miss that was nullified by a penalty and resulted in a punt) but he is hardly the sole culprit. It should be noted that two (or three, including the no-go) of his misses were from over 50 yards, although he definitely should have made the 35 yarder in OT.

Let’s recap: Tennessee intercepted four wayward Kevin Craft passes in the first half alone, including one that was returned for a touchdown. They held UCLA to a total of 29 rushing yards. Yet somehow, they went into halftime holding only a 14-7 lead. In the second half, they allowed a rejuvenated UCLA passing offense to take the lead before UT tied the game on a last-second field goal. Of course, Tennessee ultimately lost in overtime, but it seemed a foregone conclusion before the players even took the field.

The highly-touted Jonathan Crompton looked as if he had never faced a live pass rush, and continually scattered passes high, short and wide of his intended targets. He ended up completing 19 of 41passes for a paltry 46% completion percentage. Even when things did seem to be going well, the Vols never failed to shoot themselves in the foot with an ill-timed penalty, racking up nine to UCLA’s two. One of the worst sequences was early in the fourth quarter, when Tennessee had returned a punt to UCLA’s 25 yard line. After a short rush and then an incomplete pass, Crompton took a sack that effectively pushed the Vols out of field goal range. They tried the kick anyway, and even though Lincoln missed the attempt, it wouldn’t have counted due to a delay of game penalty. Instead, the Vols wound up punting from the UCLA 38, which ended up going out of the end zone. Even with the punt, Tennessee only gained six yards of field position from their original line of scrimmage.

Turnovers ultimately proved more costly for Tennessee than UCLA, as the Vols fumbled the ball at the UCLA 5 yards line early in the third quarter. A touchdown would have put Tennessee up 21-7 and could have drastically affected the momentum of the game. Even a field goal would have made it a two-score game. Meanwhile, aside from the interception return for a touchdown, Tennessee could only manage two missed 50+ yard field goals off of UCLA’s three other interceptions.

After running UCLA off the field in the first half, the defense seemed content to sit back and let Kevin Craft pick them apart, rarely rushing more than four down linemen. Tennessee never seemed to adjust to UCLA’s zone-beating pass attack, and the Bruins chewed the Vols up ten yards at a time in the critical fourth quarter. Despite no threat of a running game, Tennessee did nothing to prevent Kevin Craft from completing the little hook routes and crosses over the middle that kept their drives alive. In fact, UCLA was able to construct two nearly identical touchdown drives of 70 and 80 yards each in the fourth quarter. I can only recall one time when Tennessee was able to sack the quarterback, although there may have been one or two more, but UCLA and their coaching staff essentially had their way with the UT defense in the waning minutes.

I suppose I could go on and on about Tennessee’s blunders. While credit is in due for Kevin Craft and his gutsy second half play, the Volunteers really threw this game away. One thing to consider: last year started off with a disappointing Pac-10 loss, and UT ended up in the SEC Championship. Even after humiliating losses to Florida and Alabama left them at 4-3, Tennessee was able to climb back and win five straight. Unfortunately, I think Tennessee may need a little more luck if they want to reach eight wins again this year.

In other SEC news, the conference generally turned in impressive performances. Florida, LSU and Georgia dominated, as expected, but Alabama delivered a truly head-turning performance by demolishing ACC pre-season favorite Clemson. Kentucky also performed surprisingly well in holding rival Louisville to a safety in a 27-2 romp. Aside from Tennessee’s disappointing turn, Arkansas and Mississippi State looked like SEC pretenders after their showings. Arkansas barely held off Western Illinois in Bobby Petrino’s debut, while Mississippi State couldn’t even match that, losing to Louisiana Tech.

Coming up later this week is a not-too-surprising dearth of quality games, as most of the top teams are tuning up against lightweights, ala OSU-Ohio, LSU-Troy, and Texas-UTEP. The most interesting SEC matchup should be the Thursday night battle between South Carolina and Vanderbilt. Expect a low scoring game: Vanderbilt won 17-6 last year at South Carolina. As I mentioned before, a Vandy win would go a big way towards getting the Commodores to their first bowl since 1982. Other top matchups include Florida-Miami (which would have been a great game five years ago) and West Virginia-East Carolina. East Carolina is coming off of a big win against Virginia Tech and would like to pull off two major upsets in a row. Beyond on that, you won't be missing much.

One final thought: Georgia fans - don't look past Central Michigan. They travel to Athens to face the Bulldogs, and this CMU team is better than most people realize. Granted, last year they were blown out by Kansas and Clemson by a combined score of 132-21, but QB Dan LeFevour is a talent and helped bring the 2007 MAC title to Central Michigan. Then again, Georgia has a pretty good history of dealing with highly touted non-BCS passing attacks...

SEC West Preview

2008-08-29T16:22:00.007-04:00

Since the college season has already gotten started, I better get on my game with these SEC previews. One division down, one to go. I'll be honest - I have much less interest in the SEC West. The Mississippi and Alabama schools really don't interest me, and for the most part have been mediocre for the last ten years with the exception of a couple of good Auburn seasons. LSU, of course, has come on strongly, but as a Tennessee fan, I'm primarily concerned with seeing the Vols win the East, competing with Florida and Georgia. I still hate Alabama, but they haven't been relevant for awhile now.

With that said, let's get right into it. Here is how I see the SEC West finishing:

Auburn 10-2 (6-2)
LSU 10-2 (6-2)
Alabama 7-5 (4-4)
Mississippi State 6-6 (3-5)
Arkansas 6-6 (3-5)
Ole Miss 5-7 (2-6)

I can't say for sure whether LSU or Auburn will come out on top. Auburn does have a slightly easier schedule, since they host LSU and play Tennessee instead of Florida, so I would be tempted to give them any tie-breaker edge. However, I'm still not 100% sold on Auburn's new spread offense, and whether they can shed their history of offensive ineptitude. LSU may struggle without a proven QB, and the rest of the division still has a multitude of questions to answer. Can Arkansas be successful without Darren McFadden and Felix Jones? Will Mississippi State be able to replicate their surprise season? Will Ole Miss' transfer QB solve their offensive woes? Can Alabama succeed with all of its young talent?

Auburn
Expected Finish: 10-2 (6-2)
In addition to the usual grind of the SEC schedule, Auburn will have to face West Virginia in late October, when both teams are reaching their peaks. Auburn is somewhat fortunate that their three toughest games will all be at home - Georgia, LSU, and Tennessee. The Iron Bowl, as always, will be a challenge. Auburn always has a stout defense, and if the offense is as good as people say it can be, Auburn could be a surprise national championship contender.
Best Case: 12-0 (8-0)
Everything goes right and Auburn runs the table, only this time they actually get a chance to play for the National Title. With LSU's question marks, Auburn is primed to step up and claim the spot as top SEC dog.
Worst Case: 6-6 (3-5)
Auburn's new offense doesn't take hold, and the Tigers can't compete with the likes of LSU and Georgia. To add insult to injury, Alabama finally wins the Iron Bowl and Auburn ends up in the Independence Bowl, or computers.com bowl, or wherever they send crappy 6-6 teams.

LSU
Expected Finish: 10-2 (6-2)
LSU's non-conference schedule leaves something to be desired, but should provide four easy wins, and with the two Mississippi schools, South Carolina, and Arkansas, eight wins should be no problem. If the QB situation is resolved, I can see LSU winning at least one of these three games: Georgia, @Florida, @Auburn. It will tough to win any more than that, and all three will be dangerous. Expect the September 20 date with Auburn to set the tone for LSU's season.
Best Case: 11-1 (7-1)
I just can't see LSU going undefeated. They will slip up at least once, and they just don't have the upside potential that Auburn does. Granted, their downside is minimal, but I think what you see is what you get with LSU. Of course, a division title opens up the chance to play for the National Championship, so 11-1 might as well be 12-0.
Worst Case: 8-4 (4-4)
With LSU's cake non-conference schedule, this is about as low as I see the Tigers going. Their swarming defense will win them some close games, but if the offense struggles, they won't be able to keep up with Florida and Georgia.

Alabama
Expected Finish: 7-5 (4-4)
Alabama has a much more difficult schedule than its cross-state rival Auburn, and doesn't quite have the pedigree to convince me they can remain a top 25 team. Not only does Alabama travel to Georgia, Tennessee and LSU, but they have to open up against Clemson. Perhaps Clemson will prove to be overrated, but I think a big loss there will send Alabama spiraling downward. The young talent they have won't be able to contribute right away, and Alabama could struggle.
Best Case: 10-2 (6-2)
Alabama surpasses expectations while a couple of other highly ranked teams falter. The Tide bookends its season with big wins against Clemson and Auburn, and sneaks into the SEC Championship.
Worst Case: 6-6 (3-5)
Perhaps I'm already so pessimistic on the Tide that I don't see them falling much further than my base prediction. With three easy nonconference games and Mississippi State, Ole Miss, and Kentucky all at home, I don't see how Alabama doesn't reach six wins. However, I doubt they'll get many more.

Mississippi State
Expected Finish: 6-6 (3-5)
Last year, Mississippi State overachieved and ended up 8-5, despite being outscored by about 2 points per game. I think the Bulldogs will come back down to earth a little this year. MSU has three guaranteed wins on their schedule (LA Tech, SE Louisiana, Middle Tennessee) but I don't expect them to fare well in SEC play. An early season trip to Georgia Tech will prove whether or not this team can match last season's performance.
Best Case: 8-4 (4-4)
Mississippi State matches last season's win total, beats Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl, and pulls off a major upset against Auburn, Alabama or Tennessee.
Worst Case: 4-8 (2-6)
MSU loses at home to Vanderbilt, or worse, loses to one of the cake nonconference teams on its schedule.

Arkansas
Expected Finish: 6-6 (3-5)
Without McFadden and Felix Jones, I just don't see how Arkansas is going to compete this year. Also, their schedule is not too friendly, as nearly all of their "toss-up" games are on the road. Don't expect Arkansas to upset LSU again this year. Unless the Razorbacks can work some magic, they will need to win on the road (Kentucky, South Carolina, Mississippi State) if they want to reach a bowl game this year. Their trip to Texas could end up being a humiliation.
Best Case: 8-4 (5-3)
This would be a serious stretch, and assumes that Arkansas can take all of its "winnable" games and upset at least one of these teams: Texas, Alabama, Auburn, Florida, LSU. The only team I give them a chance against is Alabama, but I'm still not convinced they can even beat Kentucky and South Carolina.
Worst Case: 3-9 (0-8)
I wouldn't be terribly surprised to see this happen. After two easy games against Western Illinois and LA-Monroe, Arkansas has a brutal four game stretch against Texas, Alabama, Florida and Auburn. That could be enough to completely shatter this team's confidence.

Ole Miss
Expected Finish: 5-7 (2-6)
Ole Miss went winless in the SEC last year, but has generated plenty of buzz about new transfer QB Jevan Snead. We should know what this team is about by the second week, when they travel to face Wake Forest. A win there will generate momentum, but a bad loss could confirm another lost season for the Rebels. I believe they could win home games against Vanderbilt and Mississippi State, but anything beyond that will be a success. With the rest of the division full of questions, who knows, maybe all the experts are right that Ole Miss could surprise people. But I'll believe it when I see it.
Best Case: 8-4 (4-4)
Ole Miss gets that big win against Wake Forest and manages to hold its own against the SEC West. Florida, Alabama, Auburn and LSU have to be considered sure losses, but the rest of the games are winnable.
Worst Case: 3-9 (0-8)
A repeat of last season. Jevan Snead is the next coming of Brent Schaeffer and Ole Miss is back to square one.

Well, that's all for now. It's been a great start for SEC football, as Vanderbilt and South Carolina have already posted big wins. Granted, Miami (OH) and NC State are not huge talents, but it is impressive to see the middle and low SEC teams taking care of business.

SEC East Preview

2008-08-28T17:58:00.007-04:00

Now, what you have all been waiting for...the start of college football! Tonight is the official kickoff of the 2008 season, but the real intriguing matchups don't get started until this Saturday. This weekend is highlighted by Alabama-Clemson, Florida-Hawaii, Missouri-Illinois, Kentucky-Louisville, and Tennessee-UCLA. Championships are never won in the first game, but as the cliche goes, they can certainly be lost.

As promised, I will provide a rundown of the upcoming SEC season, starting with the SEC East. Georgia and Florida are the clear favorites, with Georgia currently sitting atop the polls and Florida not far behind at number 5. Interestingly, the SEC media picked Florida to win the SEC, not Georgia, so maybe they know something the national media doesn't...like maybe Georgia has a few more arrests than they've shared... I kid, I kid...

Phil Fulmer has been quoted as saying that nine of the twelve SEC teams feel they have a chance to win the SEC this year. While I appreciate that his point illustrates the depth of the conference, it is a bit of a stretch. Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Arkansas, Mississippi State, and Ole Miss have to be dreaming if they really think they can pull off an SEC Championship. You could probably lump South Carolina in there as well, but with the Ol' Ball Coach you can never be too sure.

Here is my prediction for the SEC East finish:
1. Georgia 10-2 (6-2)
2. Florida 10-2 (6-2)
3. Tennessee 9-3 (5-3)
4. Kentucky 7-5 (4-4)
5. South Carolina 5-7 (2-6)
6. Vanderbilt 4-8 (1-7)

Nothing too drastically different from last year, but I don't expect to see Tennessee pull off a surprise SEC East title two years in a row. This division title will come down to November 1, when Georgia battles Florida at the World's Largest Cocktail Party, or whatever they are calling it these days. Kentucky should expect to see a slight dropoff after losing star QB Andre Woodson. Vanderbilt always play tough, but will be hard pressed to surpass last season's five wins. South Carolina simply has a brutal schedule, and could find themselves permanently in last place if they lose at Vanderbilt in their SEC opener.

Georgia
Expected Finish: 10-2 (6-2)
Despite the pundits love, Georgia is no guarantee to even win their division, let alone the national title. Georgia has six games against AP Top 25 teams, including trips to LSU and Auburn. The Bulldogs will also be seeking redemption against Tennessee after last year's 35-14 thrashing. The Florida game could go either way, and as I mentioned before, it could be the difference between playing for the SEC title and playing in the Peach Bowl.
Best Case: 12-0 (8-0)
Clearly, the best case for the Bulldogs is that they meet all the expectations placed on them and run the table. It won't be easy.
Worst Case: 7-5 (4-4)
It isn't inconceivable that Georgia could fall to these depths. I only count four of Georgia games as sure wins (Georgia Southern, Central Michigan, Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech). Georgia has to travel to South Carolina (who beat them last year), 15th ranked Arizona State, and the always dangerous Kentucky, which are all winnable games that become much trickier when played on the road.

Florida
Expected Finish: 10-2 (6-2)
Florida has the advantage of a much easier schedule than Georgia, as they only have three games against ranked opponents. While nonconference opponents Hawaii, Miami (FL) and Florida State are big names, they shouldn't challenge the Gators. Other than the Georgia game, the only tests will be traveling to Knoxville to face the Vols and hosting LSU. Of those three games, I expect the Gators to win of them, most likely at Tennessee. A loss to Georgia could ruin any tie-breaking scenarios.
Best Case: 12-0 (8-0) You could argue that any team's "best-case" scenario is a National Title, but I believe it here. With only the three tough games, it isn't out of the question that Florida could run the table. I don't think that they will beat Georgia, but that doesn't mean I think Georgia has a better chance to winning the national title.
Worst Case: 8-4 (5-3) Florida loses all its tough games and then loses to either Miami or Florida State. At this point in time, it's inconceivable for me to believe that Florida would lose to both of these teams. The rest of Florida's schedule is fairly non-threatening.

Tennessee
Expected Finish: 9-3 (5-3)
I may be overly optimistic on the Vols here, especially after losing Erik Ainge, but I feel that the defense will be much improved and the run game should help new starting QB Jonathan Crompton break into a rhythm. Tennessee faces four ranked foes, and I can only expect that they will one of those games. The Knoxville faithful will be furious if Tennessee fails to redeem themselves at home against Alabama after last year's drubbing. Georgia, Auburn and Florida will probably be too much to handle. A nonconference trip to UCLA looks dangerous on the surface, but all reports seem to indicate that the Bruins won't be able to mount much of a threat.
Best Case: 11-1 (7-1) This would put Tennessee in the SEC Conference championship and give them a shot at the national title. I don't see it happening, but they did beat Georgia last year, and if Auburn turns out to be overrated, they could surprise the Tigers. However, I don't see Tennessee beating Tebow and Co., even at home.
Worst Case: 7-5 (4-4) Tennessee loses it four tough games and blows its opener at UCLA. The rest of the non-conference schedule (Wyoming, NIU, UAB) should hardly prove challenging, and the SEC slate of Miss St, South Carolina, Kentucky and Vandy hasn't challenged Tennessee very often in the past.

Kentucky
Expected Finish: 7-5 (4-4)
For a middle team like Kentucky, nearly every SEC game will prove challenging. I also expect the trip to Louisville will be a rude awakening for the post-Woodson Wildcats. Kentucky has the good fortune of facing most of its peers at home (Vandy, Arkansas, South Carolina) so I expect the Wildcats to pull out those victories. Realistically, Kentucky won't challenge its upper crust opponents (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Tennessee).
Best Case: 9-3 (5-3) Kentucky scores a big opening win at Louisville and finishes with an even bigger win at Tennessee, ending its long string of futility against the Volunteers.
Worst Case: 5-7 (2-6) Kentucky struggles without Andre Woodson, loses one or two winnable games at home, and misses a bowl berth.

South Carolina
Expected Finish: 5-7 (2-6)
While South Carolina may have slightly better talent than Kentucky, South Carolina has been cursed with one of the most difficult SEC schedules in recent memory. Not only are three of its four SEC home games likely unwinnable (Georgia, LSU, Tennessee), but the Gamecocks will have to face nearly all of their "peer" schools on the road, including Vanderbilt, Ole Miss and Kentucky. To top it off, South Carolina opens and closes against ACC teams North Carolina State and Clemson. The only sure win I see is when the Gamecocks host tiny Wofford.
Best Case: 9-3 (5-3)
South Carolina beats all of its peer schools and pulls an upset against one of the top dogs. South Carolina caps off a successful season with a win at hated Clemson.
Worst Case: 3-9 (1-7)
Given their schedule, this is much more likely than a 9-3 cinderella season. South Carolina lays an egg at home against NC State and the season just goes downhill from there.

Vanderbilt
Expected Finish: 4-8 (1-7)
Vanderbilt's schedule is much more comparable to Kentucky's than South Carolina's. A few gimme wins should help Vanderbilt build some momentum going into SEC play, but that won't carry them far. Expect Vandy to aaalmost pull off a big upset but fall just short.
Best Case: 6-6 (3-5)
A couple of close wins finally propel Vanderbilt to that elusive bowl appearance. It isn't crazy to believe that, with a little luck, Vanderbilt could start the season 4-0. Miami (OH), Rice, South Carolina and Ole Miss isn't exactly a murderer's row, and with a home game against Duke, maybe this is the year that Vanderbilt finally makes it to a bowl game.
Worst Case: 2-10 (0-8)
Vanderbilt should beat Rice and Duke, but after that nothing is secure. I think Vanderbilt will manage to win at least once SEC game, but if they don't win their SEC opener against South Carolina, they may not get another shot.

Coming soon...SEC West preview

USA-Guatemala Rundown

2008-08-21T08:27:00.011-04:00

In the first game of the CONCACAF World Cup qualification semifinal group stage, the United States faces off against Guatemala. Both team are fighting for one of two spots to advance to the final round robin group. Cuba and Trinidad & Tobago are the two other teams in the four-team group.

Historically, the United States has not done well when traveling to Guatemala, and has never won at Guatemala in World Cup qualifying. However, Guatemala has not defeated USA in the last 15 games. The United States is the clear favorites to win the group, but would likely be satisfied with a draw in hostile territory.

I was already planning on watching this game, so I figured I might as well write about it. This way I feel like I’m doing something productive while watching the game, as opposed to actually doing something productive like, say, working on grad school applications. Oh well…

The game will be played at Stadio Mateo Flores in Guatemala City. Carlos Bocanegra will captain the USA squad, while Carlos Ruiz and coach Ramon Haradiaga will lead Guatemala.

10:15 PM- Kickoff

0:15 - Carlos Ruiz commits a foul within the first 20 seconds. Could be a sign of things to come.

1:15 – USA gets a free kick in a favorable spot. Good feed by Landon Donovan and after a few nervous moments in front of the box, a foul is called on USA and the attack dies.

2:15 – Carlos Ruiz gives a pseudo-elbow while protecting the ball and a foul is called. Looks a little weak, but the announcers call for a yellow card.

4:45 – Freddy Garcia has a dangerous run and gets in a decent cross for Guatemala. Nothing comes of it, but it puts Tim Howard on notice.

6:00 – Clint Dempsey called for a weak foul after a Guatemala defender falls down after being beaten, trying to shield the ball.

7:30 – Pando Ramirez has a sweet name.

9:00 – Clever passing sequence by Guatemala, but Ramirez sends his shot into the crowd.

10:00 – Only ten minutes in and Carlos Ruiz’s jersey is already covered in mud.

11:00 – Nice backheel by Dempsey! Just knocked out of bounds by the last Guatemala defender before it gets to an onrushing Landon Donovan.

13:00 – Apparently there is another (better) Adu on the USA National team – the announcers talk about the potential of Maurice Adu and his recent signing by Glasgow Rangers.

14:00 – Wasted corner kick by USA

16:15 – Cherundolo flips out and gets a yellow card after slamming the ball to the ground after losing the ball over the sideline.

18:45 – Dangerous ball across the Guatemala goal and nervous moments for the Guatemala goalie. Ricardo Trigueno almost whiffs again on the ensuing throw-in…

20:00 – Mario Rodriguez has a GREAT run down the right sideline for Guatemala but it just sneaks over the endline. Good speed, could prove to be a threat.

22:30 – Looks like a very enthusiastic and energetic crowd. No one is sitting down.

23:45 – Score flashes across the screen: Mexico is up 2-1 on Honduras.

24:15 – ANOTHER dangerous run by Mario Rodriguez, but no one is there to finish it off.

25:55 – FIGHT! Ok, not really, but Pando Ramirez goes down in a heap after Clint Dempsey gives him a brush-off. Both players are given yellow card cautions.

28:00 – Arguments among Guatemalan defenders as a lack of communication forces a poor clearance. Definitely looking a little shaky.

29:30 – Nifty footwork by Freddy Garcia in the left corner, but the cross goes right to Tim Howard.

30:30 – Brian Ching touches the ball for what seems like the first time and is offsides by about 5 yards.

32:00 – Onyewu basically delivers a right cross to Jose Contreras as he swoops in to steal the ball. No call, however.

33:00 – Pablo Mastroeni fouls Carlos Ruiz who goes down hard and Mastroeni earns a yellow card. The announcers are skeptical after watching the replay, but it looks like the two players may have hit kneecaps. Probably didn’t deserve a yellow card, but hey, Ruiz is a great actor.

36:00 – Shot by Contreras and a good save by Howard! Tim Howard easily recovers the rebound shot.

38:00 – Brian Ching finally has a good touch and rockets a shot just over the bar. Two good chances in the last couple of minutes.

39:00 – Great passing by Contreras and Freddy Garcia. Guatemala claims a handball in the box after Garcia’s cross deflects off USA defender Heath Pearce’s hand. Replays confirm it, but no call. The crowd is energized, to say the least.

40:30 – USA counters, but a great chance is spoiled by an offsides call. Brian Ching has come on the strong here at the end of the first half.

41:45 – Dangerous, dangerous run by Guatemala, but the final pass is flubbed five feet in front of goal by Ruiz. Excellent passing, but the finish was lacking. He doesn’t usually miss those, but the defense was tight.

43:15 – “Stone-hands” Trigueno almost drops a cross as he falls away from his own goal. Expect the USA to take as many shots as possible in the second half to force more saves and rebounds.

45:00 – End of the first half. Guatemala doesn’t like the timing of the final whistle as they looked to be on another breakaway. No score at the end of the first half, and not much between the two sides. I expected we might see a 0-0 final, and we’re halfway there.

Mexico did end up beating Honduras 2-1, while Trinidad & Tobago beat Cuba 3-1. T&T will likely be Guatemala’s top competitor for second place in this semifinal group.

46:00 – Shaky goalkeeping by Trigueno to start the second half, as he hesitates playing a back pass and is almost embarrassed as a USA attacker nearly swipes it.

49:00 – Oooh! So close! Rodriguez, Contreras, and Ruiz combine and just push it past the near post. Guatemala’s outside speed is really causing problems for the USA defense.

51:00 – Guatemala is pressuring the Unites States and has been the more attacking side, but USA has weathered the opportunities to this point. The crowd has energized the home side, and they seem to get closer and closer to getting that first goal. Guatemala also seems to be winning the majority of the 50-50 balls.

52:30 – Dubious offside call against Guatemala negates another potential opportunity.

55:30 – USA loses it in a dangerous area and Mario “Loco” Rodriguez inches a shot just wide far post. You wonder how much closer they can get without actually scoring.

57:00 – Freddy Thompson! Power shot from about 30 yards out just misses the near post! Guatemala is running circles around the American defense.

58:30 – Mario Rodriguez always seems to be open on the right wing. After a throw-in, Ruiz gets a touch, but can only manage a weak dribbling shot.

59:30 – Red Card for Cherundolo! What was he thinking? After getting beat, he reaches out and grabs the ankle of the Guatemalan player. His second yellow, he’s off, and USA is down to ten men.

60:45 – Eddie Lewis is covered in blood. Not sure what happened yet.

61:30 – The replay is shown, and you can see that Eddie Lewis was on the losing end of a headball challenge. Gustavo Cabrera is also down for Guatemala.

62:30 – Cabrera is shown a red card! Both teams are now down to ten men. The replay looks pretty nasty: Cabrera came in late and may have led with his elbow.

64:30 – Gustavo Cabrera is on his way to the locker room. Eddie Lewis is still down. Frankie Hedjek replaces Clint Dempsey and Marquez comes in to replace Freddy Thompson for Guatemala. Both teams will now have ten players, and will likely play more conservatively. 0-0 looks like a real possibility.

65:15 – Play finally starts again.

66:00 – DaMarcus Beasley comes on for USA to replace Eddie Lewis. Carlos Castrillo comes on to replace Freddy Garcia for Guatemala.

67:00 – Yellow card for Contreras, who blocks a freekick after creeping in within the ten yard radius.

68:00 – Great save by Trigueno! The free kick is headed on by Onyewu, and it’s just touched over the bar.

68:30 – Goal for USA!! Bocanegra nailed a header into the back corner off the corner kick. DaMarcus Beasley delivers a great corner, and it looks like the Guatemalan defenders were all standing around while Bocanegra went in for the goal. It’s a 1-0 lead for the USA.

71:00 – Guatemala looks disjointed and anxious, and will need to settle down if they want to get back into the game. USA will be content to defend.

73:00 – A Guatemala corner and a great chance right in front of the net, but the shot is shanked by Flores, who probably didn't expect to be open right in front of the net.

76:30 – A great run by Pando Ramirez sets off another chance for Guatemala. Tim Howard is forced off his line to block a rushing Mario Rodriguez attack, which sets up a corner.

77:00 – Mastroeni is replaced by Maurice Edu. Guatemala immediately rockets a shot on goal off the cornerkick, but it’s right at Tim Howard.

79:00 – Nervous defending by Bocanegra leads to tense moments at the back, but USA is able to clear the ball. Carlos Ruiz continues to pressure.

81:00 – What is going on? The ball ends up in the back of the US goal, but it looked like Tim Howard had it in his possession. Carlos Ruiz kicked Howard while he was on the ground, and Howard lets go of the ball. No goal. Surprisingly no card for Ruiz, and Tim Howard gets a yellow for going after Ruiz. The announcers make no bones about their feelings on Carlos Ruiz and let everyone know it, with liberal use of the words “dirty” and “dishonest”. Hard to blame them at the moment.

84:00 – USA counters, but with only two players it doesn’t go anywhere. Brian Ching gives a nice feed to Maurice Adu, but his shot off goes well wide.

86:00 – USA is maintaining good possession and has been limiting Guatemala’s touches over the last several minutes.

88:00 – Mario Rodriguez wins a corner, but it doesn’t lead to much.

90:00 – Four minutes to be added for stoppage. Guatemala is continuing to pressure but can’t get a good shot.

92:00 – Everyone is back for the United States. Guatemala has nowhere to go, and every attacked is cleared.

93:00 – Ruiz in the box! But great defense by Onyewu and USA clears once again.

93:45 – Surely the last attack, but Bradley steals it and heads down the pitch.

94:00 – And the whistle blows! The United States gets its first ever road World Cup qualifying win over Guatemala by the final score of 1-0. The US managed to put the ball in the back of the net and held off Guatemala’s attacks. Guatemala will be very disappointed to have squandered so many opportunities, and they leave with no points. This was likely USA’s toughest game of the semifinal round, so it is certainly a great start for the Americans.

USA was somewhat fortunate to get this win, and will look to continue their success at Cuba, while Guatemala will travel to Trinidad & Tobago. Both games will take place September 6, so stay tuned!

An Exercise in Olympic Superlativism

2008-08-19T13:51:00.011-04:00

Sportwriters should stick to what they know. How many more “Olympic” pieces are going to be written by the likes of Jemele Hill? Sure, we all know Michael Phelps just completed one of the most amazing Olympic performances of all-time, but immediately after Phelps wins his eighth gold medal, Jemele Hill writes an article proclaiming him to be the “greatest athlete of all time”. Maybe it was the greatest feat of all time, but it’s going to take more than a 750 word essay with half-assed comparisons to Wilt Chamberlain and Brett Favre to convince anyone, or at least it should.

For me, this was the absolute worst passage of the article: “Phelps has had to beat Ian Crocker, Ryan Lochte and Laszlo Cseh in Beijing all of whom were world-record holders. Phelps is beating his competition in their individual specialties. Imagine if Kobe Bryant sang a better national anthem than Marvin Gaye, or if Alex Rodriguez dunked better than Dwight Howard.” Never mind the absurdity of comparing the similarity of swim events to that of nailing a three pointer and singing, but Phelps didn’t actually beat Lochte in his world-record event (200 Back) and Laszlo’s "specialty" is the Individual Medley, which is comprised of all four strokes. By no means am I a Phelps-hater (quite the opposite), but I find the immediate need to proclaim him (or anyone) the best athlete of all-time unnecessary at best and, at worst, insulting.

For those of you that occasionally, likely as a result of boredom, read ESPN’s TMQ, you may have noticed his brief commentary on Michael Phelps in today's effort: “In other Olympic news, the timer said Michael Phelps swam the 100-meter butterfly in 50.58 seconds, Milorad Cavic swam it in 50.59 -- can anyone seriously believe either finished one-hundredth of a second different from the other? …Tenths of seconds are absurd enough, as Tuesday Morning Quarterback noted a few months ago. A hundredth of a second is too fleeting to have any common-sense relevance, let alone decide an athletic event; and this is setting aside whether a mechanical device splashed with water (the touch pads) can be accurate to the hundredth of the second. Yet numerous clocks in Beijing show hundredths of seconds, as if these splinters of time can be measured meaningfully. Reader Fred Ruonala notes that as the Phelps result was announced, one of the NBC announcers said viewers could "clearly see Phelps touched first." Now Olympics announcers can perceive hundredths of seconds.”

First of all, it IS clear from replays that Phelps finished first, if ever so slightly. If tenths and hundreds of seconds are too small to decide athletic competitions, how does “TMQ” propose that these events be decided? Any swimmer or track sprinter can tell you that a quarter or tenth of a second can be a huge difference. It is widely acknowledged that Usain Bolt torched the competition in the 100M Dash. However, his margin of victory was only a meager .2 seconds. Under TMQ’s assumptions, that difference is “irrelevant” and “fleeting”. Perhaps all the finalists should have been awarded gold medals, since their times would have all rounded to ten seconds.

Also, his description of touchpads as “mechanical device(s) splashed with water” grossly misrepresents the quality and accuracy of these electronic machines. TMQ is simply making guesses about things he does not understand. In an age where technology improves by leaps and bounds every year, it is harder to believe that we would be unable to create an accurate timing device than it is to believe we could. If races could be timed to hundredths of seconds in Mark Spitz’s era, does TMQ honestly believe we should use a larger unit of time to decide races some 30 years later?

I may not be a qualified journalist, but I’m also not being paid hundreds of thousands of dollars to write about sports. The least we can expect is some semblance of a coherent argument and a clear indication that these individuals are even watching the events before jumping to their laptops.

Sorry for the lengthy layoff. Expect SEC college football previews within the week.

World Cup 2010 Qualification Preview

2008-07-02T13:38:00.000-04:00

Just because I said that Spain should savor it European Championship doesn’t mean I can’t start looking forward to the World Cup. Qualification is already underway in every confederation, with the exception of Europe. Following a two month reprieve after the just-completed Euro Championships, UEFA qualification will start in late August/early September.

Here is breakdown of the qualification process:
CONCACAF (North America/Carribean) – 3 or 4 teams. After a series of preliminary rounds that eliminated all the countries with no real chance, twelve teams remain. These teams have been seeded into three groups of four, and the top two teams from each group will advance to the final group stage. The top three finishers advance to South Africa, with the fourth place team facing off against the fifth place South American team in a home-and-home playoff for the last slot. The top three seeded teams are USA, Mexico, and Costa Rica. It would be a huge shock if either USA or Mexico failed to advance, but the third guaranteed seed has to be considered up for grabs. Honduras, Jamaica and Guatemala look to be the strongest challengers, in addition to Costa Rica.

Africa – 5 teams. In addition to host South Africa, Africa will qualify 5 teams. Currently, 48 teams are still alive, and have been placed into 12 groups of four. The top finisher from each group and the top eight second place teams will then be seeded into five groups of four. The winner of each group advances to South Africa. The qualification process seems a little convoluted to me, and somewhat arbitrary. Only eight of the twelve second places teams advance to the final round? Why not eliminate eight more teams in the first preliminary round, leaving 40 teams and ten groups of four? Eh, oh well… I won’t claim to know which African teams are the best, but I would have to say that Cameroon and Nigeria are most likely to advance. I would also expect Ghana and Ivory Coast to be strong in qualification. Beyond that, maybe Egypt and Morocco…

Asia – 4 or 5 teams. Asia has already reached the final round of its qualification, with ten teams remaining. The ten teams have been placed into two groups of five. The top two finishers from each group automatically qualify for South Africa. The two third places teams will then have a home-and-home playoff for the right to face the winner of Oceania in a final playoff. The winner of that leg will advance to World Cup 2010. The clear favorites from Group One are Japan and Australia. The second group is a little more competitive, with South Korea and Iran as the favorites. North Korea and Saudi Arabia will probably duke it out for the right to face New Zealand become the region’s fifth qualifier.

Oceania – 0 or 1 team. As mentioned above, the winner of this region will face the fifth Asian team in a final playoff. I would be shocked if anyone other than New Zealand wins the region, but it likely won’t matter because they still have to face (and defeat) a decent team from Asia.

South America – 4 or 5 teams. Just as in every other tournament, the South American teams face a grueling league-style qualification that pits the ten teams against each for a home and away leg. The top four finishers automatically qualify for the World Cup, while the fifth place team has a playoff against the fourth place CONCACAF team. So, pretty much, the top five South American teams will qualify. Despite Brazil’s current fifth place position, they, along with Argentina, have to be locks to advance. Paraguay also looks strong, which means that the final two spots will likely come down to Colombia, Uruguay, Chile, and possibly Venezuela.

Europe – 13 teams. Like South America, Europe essentially has one giant qualification round. The 53 teams have been seeded and divided into nine groups. The winners of each group automatically advance to the World Cup, while the top 8 second place teams are drawn into four home-and-home playoffs. The four winners will then also advance to the World Cup. Like the African qualifying, it seems a little odd to leave out one (or more) second place finishers, but I’m sure they have their reasons. It seems reasonable to expect the majority of the teams that qualified for Euro 2008 will also advance to South Africa. Ironically, England has once again been placed against Croatia in qualifying. After Croatia eliminated them from Euro 2008, England will be keen to avoid the same fate for its World Cup dreams. England will also have to contend with Ukraine. Generally speaking, the usual suspects (Spain, Germany, Italy, Portugal, Netherlands) should advance without a problem. If I had to pick two “surprise” qualifiers, I would say Ireland and Israel. Israel has been on the cusp for years and they have the good fortune of a relatively easy qualifying group, with Greece and Switzerland the only other decent teams. Ireland is seeded with Italy, who have been struggling somewhat, and Ireland would only need to overcome Bulgaria to finish second. Euro 2008 surprise performers Russia and Turkey may be fighting for playoff spots, as they are seeded with Germany and Spain, respectively.

I know we still have two years to go, but I am looking forward to seeing which teams succeed and which teams falter. For those of you who are keeping track, the United States kick off their current qualifying round at Guatemala on August 20, which is historically a tough environment for visiting teams.

¡Viva España!

2008-06-30T13:35:00.001-04:00

There is really no other way to say it. Spain completely and utterly deserved to win this tournament. I couldn’t have been any more impressed with them. The 1-0 scoreline was mildly deceiving, as Spain had Germany on the heels for the majority of the contest. The Spaniard tallied 14 shots to Germany’s 4, and could have had several more had Iniesta not wasted so many possessions inside the box.

Overall, the tournament was one of the more enjoyable I can remember. With nearly all of the teams fielding high-quality squads, we didn’t have to suffer through any cakewalks (except when Spain played Russia). Nearly every team came onto the pitch with an attacking mindset, and that mentality yielded many goals and few scoreless draws. In fact, I can only recall two scoreless draws: Romania-France and the Spain-Italy quarterfinal.

Thanks to Turkey, we had late-game drama in every round of the tournament. A few pre-tournament favorites fell a little earlier than expected (Portugal, Netherlands) but in the end, quality was rewarded. Unlike the World Cup, the European Championship has a bit more history with unheralded champions (Greece ’04, Denmark ’92) but this year proved to be the welcome exception.

World Cup 2010 expectations for the Spaniards will now be sky-high, and many are already projecting an Argentina-Spain final. After what I have seen, I could hardly disagree. But success in these tournaments often requires a little bit of luck in addition to skill, and Spain should savor this championship before moving onto dreams of World Cup 2010.

Who am I?

2008-06-19T10:00:00.000-04:00

Who am I? Only three teams have more home wins than I do. I have the sixth highest scoring margin in the league. I have allowed the fifth-fewest runs. I am only two runs shy of top 10 ranking in runs scored. I have lost only 11 games by more than three runs, which is the same number as the Cardinals, who are 11 games over .500, and only two more than the AL-leading Red Sox (9). However, I am currently one game under .500 and trail the division leader by 5 ½ games.

How is this possible, you might ask? Well, for one, I inexplicably lead the league in road losses. Yes, I even have more road losses than the Royals and Rockies. Defying all logical explanation, I have a 4-17 record in one-run games. By the way, the mathematical odds of that happening are less than one half of a percent. I lost my first eight one-run games. I have a 1-7 record in extra innings games.

If you took the time to check ESPN or simply know the one team I give enough of a crap about to look up all these useless facts, then you know the answer is …the Atlanta Braves.

I honestly have no idea what the heck is going on here. According to ESPN’s “Expected Wins” stat, the Braves should be 11 games over .500, not 1 game under. The only other team with that big of a differential is the LA Angels, who are somehow 13 games over .500 and lead the AL West with an essentially even scoring margin. Maybe by writing this, some of the Angels luck will transfer to the Braves…

Final Eight - Euro 2008

2008-06-19T09:11:00.002-04:00

Down to the final eight and the real fun begins. All the pretenders (including you, France) have been weeded out, which leaves us with four exceptional quarterfinals. Personally, I didn’t do too badly with my picks, selecting six of the eight quarterfinalists - although I only correctly placed two of them.

Two of the games really stand out: Portugal-Germany and Spain-Italy. Spain never seems to catch a break in these tournaments, and a quarterfinal date with Italy is no exception. However, you can bet that Spain hasn’t forgotten their bitter World Cup ’94 quarterfinal loss to Italy, Most people did not expect Germany and Portugal to face off until the semi-final round, so the winner of this game could very well end up in the final.

Croatia-Turkey features two teams playing their best soccer right now. Croatia was one of three team to win all three of its group stage games, while Turkey is coming off its amazing comeback against the Czech Republic that got them into the next round. And of course, that comeback came on the heels of its first comeback win against the Swiss, giving Turkey two more comeback victories than rest of the field (that’s 2-0 for those of you counting). Netherlands-Russia is probably the least intriguing of the quarterfinals. Russia must be playing with more confidence after winning it final two games, but the 4-1 shellacking by Spain does not bode well for them. Oh, and neither does the complete and utter dominant form that the Dutch have displayed.

Portugal, Croatia, Spain and Netherlands have to be considered the favorites to advance, but it would not be a total shock (except for Netherlands) if all of them fail to win. A Portugal vs. Spain/Netherlands final looks to be most likely, but I still think it is too early to count out the wily Italians. Germany is also fielding a very experienced side, and relative unknowns Croatia and Turkey could always surprise someone.

Euro 2008 - Last Group Games

2008-06-15T14:05:00.003-04:00

With all teams having completed two of their three group stage games, one final round of games remains. The group winners have all been decided (Portugal, Croatia, Netherlands, Spain) but the second place finishers are anything but decided. Only Switzerland and Greece have been officially eliminated, so every other team still has a fighting chance - even Austria!

Group A:
As I mentioned before, the Czech Republic and Turkey are dead even in the standing. Given their tie-breaker edge, the Czech Republic advances with a win or a draw. Turkey must win to advance, so clearly they are at a disadvantage. I would give the Czech Republic the edge, but certainly it would not be a shocker for Turkey to advance. Portugal wins the group regardless of the result of their game against the already eliminated Swiss.

Group B:
Surprisingly, Germany are still fighting to advance, courtesy of a shock loss to Croatia. However, with a game against hapless Austria, the Germans need only a draw to advance. Austria will advance if they defeat the Germans, unless Poland defeats Croatia by more goals than Austria's margin. Poland cannot advance unless Austria wins, but they need to win by a larger margin than Austria. The odds of Germany actually losing to Austria have to be minuscule at best, so the discussion is probably moot. A Germany-Portugal quarterfinal looks to be all but certain at this point, with Croatia facing the winner of Turkey/Czech Republic.

Group C:
By virtue of their two impressive wins, the Dutch have claimed first place. I suspect they may not play at full strength against Romania, who need a win or a France-Italy draw to advance. Should Romania lose or draw, the winner of France-Italy would advance. My heart wants Romania to advance, but I have a feeling that the Italians will sneak into the quarterfinals.

Group D:
A little more straightforward than Groups B and C, Spain has already clinched the group while Greece have been eliminated. Sweden and Russia fight for second place. Due to Sweden's superior goal differential, a draw would allow them to advance. Russia must win to advance. I would certainly give Sweden a much better chance of pulling it off, which would give them a date with the Netherlands. Spain has the misfortune of a possible quarterfinal against Romania, Italy, or France.

Euro 2008 Tie-breaker Rules

2008-06-12T11:19:00.003-04:00

As a result of Turkey’s thrilling (so I’m told) victory over Switzerland and Portugal’s 3-1 win over the Czech Republic, Portugal is officially into the next round while Switzerland is the first team to be eliminated. That leaves the Czech Republic and Turkey tied with one win and one loss each. To further complicate matters, both teams have the same goal differential, goals scored, and goals allowed. So, if these two teams tie when they face each other on the 15th, what would happen?

According to the official tie-breaking procedures, Czech Republic would advance as a result of some obscure calculation based on recent team performance. Here are the tie-breakers, in order:

(a) Greater number of points obtained in the matches between the teams in question.
(b) Goal difference resulting from the matches between the teams in question (if more than two teams finish equal).
(c) Greater number of goals scored in the matches between the teams in question (if more than two teams finish equal).
(d) Goal difference in all the group matches.
(e) Greater number of goals scored in all the group matches.
(f) Coefficient of points from the last two qualifying competitions for the final rounds of the 2006 World Cup and Euro 2008 (points gained and divided by the number of matches played).
(g) Fair Play conduct of the teams (final tournament).
(h) A drawing of lots by the Organising Committee.

So, if we assume that the two teams tie, that would throw out tie-breakers a thru e. I have no idea how the coefficient of points (f) is calculated, but the Czech Republic is ranked fourth while Turkey is 13. Here is the full list of rankings.

1. 2.417 - Holland
2. 2.409 - Croatia
3. 2.364 - Italy
4. 2.333 - Czech Republic
5. 2.273 - Sweden
6. 2.250 - Romania
6. 2.250 - Germany
8. 2.192 - Portugal
9. 2.182 - Spain
10. 2.167 - Greece
10. 2.167 - Poland
12. 2.091 - France
13. 1.958 - Russia
13. 1.958 - Turkey
15. 1.800 - Switzerland
16. 1.500 - Austria

So, there you go. Turkey will have to go all out for the win, while the Czechs can play a little more conservatively. Don't ask me how Sweden is ranked fifth while Spain is ranked ninth, but them's the rules.

In today’s games, look for Croatia to try to steal a point from Germany. Any point there, or even a 1-0 loss (Poland lost to Germany 2-0) would give the Croatians the edge in advancing to the next round. Don’t expect the world to tune in for Austria-Poland. Austria will be motivated to earn a point in what could be its last winnable match, but I wouldn’t bet on it. A draw (or loss) would effectively end Poland’s chance to advance. I am personally much more excited for Friday’s games, which will feature Italy-Romania and Netherlands-France. Both Italy and France will be desperate to score points after disappointing in their first games.

Euro 2008 - Late Preview

2008-06-09T16:16:00.003-04:00

Euro 2008 is officially underway, with four games already completed. And surprisingly, no scoreless draws so far! Or even any draws! Never mind, France and Romania just tied 0-0. Anyway, Portugal and Germany both scored impressive wins, while the Czech Republic and Croatia managed to scrape by against the home sides Austria and Switzerland. Let’s be honest - neither one of those teams would have made it through the qualifying stage. They would be extremely fortunate to advance to the next round.

Unfortunately for those of us earning an honest living, the majority of the games will be during our working hours. ESPN360 does offer all the games online (free of charge!) but your company may or may not block this site. Mine does.

Here is my quick breakdown of the groups. Granted, some of the games have already been played, but better late than never I guess.

Group A – Portugal is the clear favorite in this group. After disappointing throughout much of the ‘90’s, Portugal has achieved a high level of success over the last few tournaments, including their appearance in the Euro 2004 final and World Cup 2006 semi-final. Despite his high propensity for diving, Cristiano Ronaldo is regarded as one of the top players in the world. They did not play exceptionally well in qualifying and finished second to Poland in their group. Turkey, Czech Republic and Switzerland are not exactly a murderer’s row, and should not provide much of a challenge to Portugal. Turkey is likely the next most talented team, but they have already suffered a 2-0 loss to Portugal in the opening round of games. The Czech Republic is the not the same team that advanced to the Euro 2004 semi-final, as age and injury have slowed them down. However, they did finish ahead of tourney favorite Germany in qualifying, so perhaps it is too early to count them out.

Group B – Germany looked typically efficient in dispatching Poland, and should continue their run against European minnows Croatia and Austria. I feel that Germany may be a tad overrated, but given the draw, Germany has a fair shot to advance all the way to the final. The Poland-Croatia match should determine the group’s second place finisher. At the moment, I would give Croatia the edge, given their more impressive qualifying run, which included a first place finish over Russia and England (which ultimately knocked Beckham and Co. out of the tournament) and a virtually perfect finish. Their only loss was after they had already mathematically qualified for the tournament. Austria will be lucky to even score a goal.

Group C – Fairly named the Group of Death, France, Italy and the Netherlands all feel they have a legitimate chance to win the tournament. Romania has the unfortunate luck to be the fourth seed in this death-trap. In any other group they might be favored to finish second, but will likely end up at the bottom here. Italy is riding its World Cup 2006 win, but a few key injuries leave the Azzurri a little more exposed than they would like to be. In an odd coincidence, all four of these teams came from only two qualifying groups. France and Italy were both in the same qualifying group, while Romania and the Netherlands also came from the same group. Romania actually finished ahead of the Dutch, but I find it hard to believe they will do much damage in this tournament. But no finish would surprise me, especially given that Romania just managed a draw with France.

Group D – Spain is absolutely the clear favorite to win the group, but given their history of underachievement, I wouldn’t bet on it. Greece is somehow ranked eighth in the FIFA world rankings (presumably because of their Euro 2004 win) but has not done a lot since then. They rolled through qualifying, but they had the good fortune of being placed in the easiest qualifying group. Sweden and Russia both finished second in their respective qualifying groups and wouldn’t appear to be formidable opponents. Russia (along with Croatia) prevented England from reaching the final stage of tournament, and may have a slight edge over opponents Sweden and Greece.

Quarterfinals:
Q1 – Portugal vs. Croatia – It doesn’t really matter who advances from Group B. Portugal should take this game.
Q2 – Germany vs. Czech Republic – In a good old-fashioned slugfest, Germany figures to advance from this round and head to a semi-final matchup against Portugal.
Q3 – Italy vs. Sweden – A little tougher to predict than the previous two games, this game has numerous possibilities. Whoever wins Group C should advance to the semi-final.
Q4 – Spain vs. Netherlands – Spain is nearly a lock, but France or Romania (or Italy) could easily replace the Netherlands as Spain’s opponent. I would love to see Spain finally win a tournament, but I’ve been burned too many times. The top two finishers in Group C will have a re-match to advance to the final.

Semi-finals:
S1 – Portugal vs. Germany – Portugal is displaying excellent form and will simply run past the Germans. If Germany plays tight defense (which they normally do) they could frustrate the Portuguese and perhaps score a quick counter-attack goal or win in shootouts. But they skill of the Portuguese midfield should open up chances.
S2 – Italy vs. Netherlands – Italy has the skill, but they will need to display some offensive flair. Italian soccer has a tendency to be unwatchable, despite all their talent.

Championship:
Portugal vs. Italy – This game will be decided by the team with the better flopping technique. The Italians have been doing it for years, but with young Cristiano Ronaldo the Portuguese are now a flopping force to be reckoned with. In this case, youth is served and Portugal walks away holding the trophy.

Editor's Note: I'm well aware that Italy is in the process of getting their ass kicked by the Netherlands, but I didn't really feel like going back and changing anything

Define "Super"-star

2008-05-30T14:58:00.002-04:00

Since when is Matt Holliday a superstar? According to Sports Illustrated, he is. I think the media is getting a liberal in using that term...

Yeah, he's a good player, he's batted over .300 consistently for the last three years and has decent power, but a superstar? Just because you drafted him in the first round of your MLB fantasy league does not make him a superstar.

Derek Jeter is a superstar. Albert Pujols is a superstar. Manny Ramirez is a superstar. These guys have been around and done it year in and year out. People who aren't baseball fans know their names. I would be willing to bet that most people in the state of Colorado could not pick Matt Holliday out of a police lineup.

Don't demean the use of the word superstar by applying it to guys like Matt Holliday. It's not a slight, but two All-Star appearances do not make you a superstar. In three to five years, maybe, but not now.

Hockey? What is a Hockey?

2008-04-23T13:51:00.003-04:00

After having never attended a post-season game of any kind (well, aside from the Olympics and the World Cup), I have now had the good fortune of attending two in one month. After seeing my first March Madness game, I was able to procure tickets to the Red Wings-Predators First Round Game 5 matchup. You may be asking yourself, “But wait, aren’t the Red Wings a hockey team?” To answer your question, yes, they are. Over the last five years combined, I am fairly certain that I have watched less than one period of NHL hockey. I did attend a Michigan-Notre Dame hockey game a couple of years ago, but other than that, the only hockey I have seen is what’s come up on SportsCenter before I was able to change the channel.

However, the Red Wings are by far Detroit’s most successful professional franchise. They have ten championships, which is nearly as many as the Lions, Tigers, and Bears, Oh My! Pistons combined. I have attended Tigers and Pistons games, but never made it to a Red Wings game. It seems like the type of activity that should be mandatory for all Detroit area residents, given the fame and fortune of the beloved Red Wings. So what better time to start appreciating Detroit’s hockey than the playoffs?

One of the first things I noticed upon entering Joe Louis Arena is how energized the crowd was. Sure, that is to be expected at a playoff game, but the energy was palpable. Nearly everyone was wearing Red Wings gear, or at least wearing red, and I’m not sure that I saw a Nashville fan the entire night. Our seats were not the greatest, but even our “cheap” seats had a great view of the ice. Once the game kicked off, faced off, started, there wasn’t an empty seat in the house. Unlike NFL, MLB or the NBA, the game was very fluid and there were very few extended stops in play. A 17 minute intermission followed each period, but other than that, the game was constantly in action.

A couple of gripes: The line for the bathrooms was unbelievably long at the first intermission. I’ve never seen lines of such magnitude. I actually abandoned my initial quest, although I was able to successfully return near the end of the second period. Also, what kind of major entertainment venue doesn’t take credit cards? After failing in my initial task of finding a restroom, I decided to buy a beer and hot dog. Alas, upon finding that credit cards were not accepted and that I only had ten dollars, I was forced to decide between the beer and hot dog. Given the pre-existing bathroom situation, I opted for the hot dog. After going back later for a beer, I had to wait in another long line. I spent most of the time trying to figure out what the attendants were doing. One was taking orders at the register, and the other two handed cups to the customer, who then had to fill his own beer! Needless to say, the wait was significantly longer than it should have been.

Anyway, getting back to the game, the Red Wings scored very early in the first period to take a 1-0 lead. However, the rest of the game, despite a domination of play by Detroit, yielded very little in the way of scoring. The tension was high, and multiple scraps broke out between players, although the referees (unfortunately) were able to pull the players apart before any brawls erupted. Another point – Red Wings fans appeared to be very knowledgeable about the sport and cheered at all the right times. Or at least they seemed like they knew what they were doing. I’ve been to plenty of Tigers games and a good percentage of the fans only know what’s going on when someone hits a home run.

As the game wound to a close, Nashville pulled its goalie and attacked Detroit’s goal with reckless abandon. Although Detroit had taken about three times as many shots as Nashville, somehow Nashville finally managed to get past Chris “Ozzie” Osgood with about 30 seconds left to tie it up. Overtime! I took the opportunity to buy another beer (after going to the ATM) but I barely had time to drink it. The Red Wings put one in after about five minutes of overtime play to win the game. And the crowd goes wild! Ahhhhh!! Ahhhhh!!!

So, even though I can in no way be considered a hockey fan, the game was thoroughly enjoyable and it was obvious that Detroiters take their hockey very seriously. After years of watching the Lions and Tigers suck, it really isn’t too surprising.

The Atlanta Braves Suck! (wink, wink)

2008-04-17T10:24:00.001-04:00

Since I wrote that the Tigers were “done”, Detroit has reeled off an impressive three game win streak. The Tigers have nearly doubled their season offensive output, averaging ten runs a game over those three wins. The pitching is still a concern (they allowed 16 runs in those three wins) but the city of Detroit is breathing a huge sigh of relief now that the bats have awakened.

So, under the fairly reasonable assumption that it was pointed complaints that triggered Detroit’s good fortune, I would now like to turn my attention to the Atlanta Braves. As a long-time Braves fan, I’ve grown frustrated with their great regular season performances and subsequent playoff flops. Fourteen consecutive division titles and only one World Series win? As of late, they haven’t even been good enough to make the playoffs the last two years.

This year was supposed to be different, though. Numerous ‘experts’ were predicting a turnaround season and possible World Series appearance for the Braves. I was skeptical at first, but after checking out their starting lineup and seeing the return of Tom Glavine, I started to believe. Youngsters Jeff Francoeur and Brian McCann have been impressive over the last two years and will only improve. Last season’s trade deadline acquisition Mark Teixeira could be considered one of the top five first basemen in the league. However, what really had me excited was hearing about the potential of rookie shortstop Yunel Escobar. His progress allowed the Braves to trade away All-Star shortstop Edgar Renteria, and Escobar has looked as good as advertised so far this season.

Unfortunately, the team as a whole has limped along to a 5-9 record, which is only a half game better than the Tigers right now. Despite being in the top ten for both runs scored and runs allowed, the Braves are near the bottom of the NL standings, ahead of only the Nationals. Based on current run production, the Braves should be expected to have an 8-6 record, but have unexpectedly performed much worse than that. Unlike my rant on the Tigers, the Braves have been playing well. Chipper Jones is batting over .400 and three Braves already have double digit RBI totals. Mark Teixeira is struggling a bit, but for the most part, the team is hitting well. Starting pitching has also been positive thus far, with three starters under 3.00 ERA and another with a 3.93 ERA. Unfortunately, injuries to the bullpen have perhaps contributed to the Braves slow start, as closer Rafael Soriano and next-in-line closer Peter Moylan have missed time.

However, the number one reason for the Braves poor start is BOBBY COX! You suck!! Just kidding. But for some reason, the Braves have already played and lost an inordinate amount of one run games. In fact, the Braves are an astonishing 0-7 in one run games this year, including two losses in extra innings. Hopefully that number will even out as the season progresses, but at some point you just have to start winning games. I’m guessing the lack of quality arms at the end of games is hurting Atlanta, but 0-7? I’m hoping that by complaining about the poor start, Atlanta’s luck will turn around. With John Smoltz on the mound tonight, it sounds like a good bet to me.

And give it up for yooouuur.... Detroit Knicks!

2008-04-14T13:15:00.002-04:00

Detroit, it’s time to put those World Series dreams on hold. This is starting to get ugly. Widely expected to compete for the division crown and a potential World Series appearance, the Tigers have fallen completely on their face. In fact, they’ve fallen so hard that they probably crushed whatever child/wildlife that had the misfortune of passing in their vicinity. Not only are the Tigers terrible, they’re murderers!

Seriously, with the second highest payroll in all of baseball, no one could have expected this. The 0-7 start was bad, but I assumed that the Tigers would reel off a few wins once they finally got that first win. Nope. They’ve gone 1-3 after getting that “big” win. To make matters worse, they haven’t even been losing close games, which you could attribute to bad luck. Detroit has already been shut our four times, which is more times than all of last season combined. Only two of their ten losses have come by less than three runs. Amazingly, Detroit has scored fewer runs than any team in baseball while also giving up the most runs. Only one team in the American League has failed to score fewer than ten runs more than Detroit - Kansas City, who also happens to lead the majors in fewest runs allowed. Also, Detroit has given up an astonishing 78 runs (6.5/game) while only one other AL team (LA Angels) has given up more than 60.

Detroit was seen as a World Series contender at the start of the season, although many acknowledged that the bullpen could prove to be an issue. The bullpen has hardly been a factor thus far, as the starting pitching has been simply abysmal. The five starting pitchers (Rogers, Verlander, Robertson, Willis, Bonderman) have accounted for ONE quality start. Bonderman is the only starter who has managed to keep his ERA under 6.50.

After last season’s offensive performance, the addition of Miguel Cabrera only fueled expectations. It is fair to say that performance has not quite matched the hype. Only two Tigers starters (Guillen, Inge) have a batting average over .250, while only one starter (Inge) has accounted for more than 3 RBI. On the bright side, the Tigers have yet to be thrown out stealing (8 for 8!)

Such struggles aren’t necessarily uncommon, but it is unsettling when it happens at the start of the season. The Tigers had a 4-14 slide last July and were still in a position to compete for the division title until they let it slip away in late August. With the talent Detroit has, this slide is confounding, but if the Tigers can get back on track, the rest of the league had better not take them lightly.

One Shining Moment

2008-04-10T11:34:00.002-04:00

Congratulations to Mario Chalmers and the Kansas Jayhawks. In a fitting end to the tournament, Kansas came from behind and knocked off Memphis in overtime to claim the National Championship. Mario Chalmers will forever be remembered as one of the great Kansas heroes. I had the good fortune of watching the game in a crowded BW3’s, and the bar went absolutely crazy went Chalmers hit that shot. Once the game was tied and went into overtime, everyone knew that Kansas was going to win. Similar to the West Virginia-Xavier Sweet 16 game, where West Virginia’s star missed a free throw in the waning seconds that would have won the game and the Mountaineers ending up losing in overtime, the momentum was completely swung in favor of the Jayhawks.

Kansas showed that they were the most complete and balanced team in the tournament. Despite not having a single player named to the Big 12 First Team All-Conference, their collective depth, talent and perseverance enabled Kansas to overcome star-driven teams like Davidson, UNC and Memphis. While I’m happy for Kansas, I do feel a little bad for Memphis. To lose a game on a tough missed shot is one thing, but to let a game slip away after going 1 of 5 on free throws down the stretch…that will stay with those Memphis players for a long time to come. However, the game should be remembered for Kansas’ clutch shots and valiant comeback, rather than Memphis choking.

On a personal side note, the fact that Kansas won made me feel like a bit of an idiot. You may recall that, at the beginning of the tournament, I bemoaned the discovery that I had actually selected UCLA to win the National Championship, rather than Kansas. While I did correctly predict all of the Final Four teams, the UCLA pick ended up costing me a spot in the all-important top two of my pool. Had I merely selected Kansas to win the final (as I intended), I would have finished tied for first. With a forty plus person pool and a $20 “enjoyment” fee, well you can do the math and perhaps understand my pain. I still managed to finish fourth, but that won’t buy me a new flat-screen TV.

Even Nature Hates Boston!

2008-04-04T09:02:00.002-04:00

In this story posted on SI.com, apparently Nature got fed up with annoying Fenway fans and took out its pent-up aggression on a 13 year old girl. It would have made more sense if the victim was a pink-jersey (or hat) wearing, stumbling drunk bandwagoner, but I guess Nature works in mysterious ways.

Top NFL QB Prospects - By the Numbers

2008-04-03T13:01:00.003-04:00

Taking a break from college basketball for a moment, let's look at some of the potential first-day NFL quarterback draft prospects. NFL Draft gurus have been moving guys up and bumping guys down since the start of the college season back in August. Even since the last game, players such as Andre Woodson have fluctuated wildly without having played a single down. I have broken down key stats for four individuals, which I'll present first before revealing names.

Looking at last season's stats, I've classified key passing performance stats as "positive" and "negative", for simplicity's sake. By my judgment, the following stats are considered "good", or at least above average, for a single game: 60+% completion rate, 2 or more touchdown passes, no interceptions, and 8.0+ average yards per attempt. I considered the following to be "negative" performances: Under 50% completion rate, 0 TD's, two or more interceptions, and under 6.0 YPA.

Player A
Positive Stats:
60+% Compl – 10 games out of 14
2+ TD’s – 9/14
0 INT – 7/14
8.0+ YPA – 3/14

Negative:
Under 50% Comp – 1/14
0 TD’s – 1/14
2+ INTs – 2/14
Under 6.0 YPA – 5/14

Pro Passer Rating – 94.2

Player B
Positive:
60+% Compl – 5/10
2+ TD’s – 5/10
0 INT – 2/10
8.0+ YPA – 2/10

Negative:
Under 50% Comp – 1/10
0 TD’s – 1/10
2+ INTs – 2/10
Under 6.0 YPA – 1/10

Pro Passer Rating – 86.6

Player C
Positive:
60+% Compl – 8/14
2+ TD’s – 9/14
0 INT – 3/14
8.0+ YPA – 3/14

Negative:
Under 50% Comp – 4/14
0 TD’s – 1/14
2+ INTs – 7/14
Under 6.0 YPA – 6/14

Pro Passer Rating – 83.4

Player D
Positive:
60+% Compl – 8/13
2+ TD’s – 11/13
0 INT – 6/13
8.0+ YPA – 4/13

Negative:
Under 50% Comp – 0/13
0 TD’s – 0/13
2+ INTs – 3/13
Under 6.0 YPA – 2/14

Pro Passer Rating – 101.4

Now that we have some basic stats for each quarterback, let's take a deeper look and make a few comparisons between the group.

Player A - Erik Ainge: This player had the highest percentage out of the group for games with at least a 60% completion rate and no interceptions. This player also had the fewest number of games with two or more interceptions. One drawback is yards per attempt - Ainge has a relatively high number of games with a YPA under 6.0. Given the high completion percentage stats, it is likely that a conservative passing game with an emphasis on safe, short passes would have decreased yards per attempt while increasing completion rates. Ainge's statistics indicate that he makes good decisions and runs an efficient offense.

Player B - Chad Henne: While injuries certainly have to be factored into any analysis of Chad Henne's senior year, the most obvious assumption to be made is that Henne is the most consistently average quarterback out of the group. He failed to exceed a 50% "positive" performance in any of the statistical categories for the season as a whole, but at the same time, had very few "negative" performances. In fact, outside of the Ohio State game, Henne had only two "negative" performances in any category. Nearly all of his games produced stats that fell into the in-between or average range.

Player C - Matt Ryan: Ah, Mr. Ryan, the presumptive number one draft pick. Matt Ryan's "positive" performance counts are roughly similar to Erik Ainge's. However, the noticeable difference is that Matt Ryan only managed to complete three games without throwing an interception. What is more worrisome is Ryan's performance in the "negative" categories. Out of the group, he had the highest number of instances with a sub-50% completion rate, multiple interceptions, and sub-6.0 YPA. In fact, he had as many games with multiple interceptions as the other three quarterbacks combined, and had twice as many games with a completion percentage under 50%. It is also worth noting that Matt Ryan had the lowest passer rating out of the group.

Player D - Andre Woodson: Somewhat surprisingly, Woodson led or was right behind the leader in every "positive" category. He also performed well in the negative categories. Woodson threw two or more touchdowns in 11 of 13 games and never failed to complete a TD pass in any game. He never completed less than 50% of his passes and went without an interception in over half of his games. He also had the highest passer rating out of the group. Woodson was criticized once the Kentucky Wildcats tumbled out of the polls late in the season, but his stats did not deteriorate that greatly. Certainly, the increased level of compeititon contributed to the minor decline, but he only had one true "bad" game, which was the disappointing loss to Mississippi State.

If I was to rank the players purely by their statistical performances last year, it would probably be Woodson, Ainge, Henne, Ryan, which is essentially the reverse order in which they are likely to be drafted. Matt Ryan appears to be a certain first-rounder. Chad Henne will probably go in the third round, while Ainge could fall into the fourth or fifth round. Woodson is the hardest to predict and go anywhere between the second and fifth round.

I'm not trying to say that Matt Ryan will never be a successful NFL quarterback. Certainly, with the likes of the McCown brothers, Damon Huard and Todd Collins garnering significant playing time, there is ample opportunity for new players to step up. I just feel that Matt Ryan is not worthy of the number one overall pick, or should even go in the first round, and that players like Ainge and Woodson should be given more consideration for the success at the college level.

Matt Ryan gets a lot of credit for being a "leader" and winning the tough games, but was Boston College's season really all that much more successful than Tennessee or Michigan's seasons? The 14-10 win over Virginia propelled Matt Ryan into the spotlight, but lost in shine of that winning throw was Virginia Tech's pathetic prevent defense and the fact that Ryan also completed less than half of his passes and threw two interceptions that game.

Granted, the NFL requires a different skill set than the college game, and maybe Ainge doesn't have a strong enough arm, or Woodson has a funky delivery, but shouldn't statistical performance count for something? Scouts may be impressed by Matt Ryan's 4500 yard season, but if you really dig into it, the numbers are not quite as impressive. As financial firms always state, past performance does not guarantee future returns - but at the very least, it gives you an idea of what to expect.

Live and in Color

2008-03-31T16:07:00.005-04:00

After prattling on and on about college basketball all year, I was finally able to go see a game live and in person this weekend. Detroit hosted the Midwest Regional Finals, so I was able to get a ticket to the Kansas-Davidson Elite Eight match-up through a Kansas alum friend of mine. Not that I would have needed the connection to get a ticket, though. The first thing I noticed upon arriving at Ford Field was the enormous amount of people ditching tickets. I’m guessing part of the reason was the fact that Ford Field holds 60K+ people (enormous for a preliminary round game) and another reason was all the Wisconsin and Georgetown fans trying to re-coup some of their losses.

Despite all the available tickets, the Kansas-Davidson game managed to set a single-game attendance record for a preliminary round tournament game. I can’t say that I’m 100% sold on the use of football stadiums for basketball games (you lose the small-gym atmosphere) but overall it was a promising preview of next year’s Final Four, which will also be hosted at Ford Field. I was also initially surprised at the large number of Davidson fans at the game. As you may have heard, the Davidson administration practically gave every single student a free trip to see their games this weekend, including the cost of tickets, travel and lodging. Not a bad deal! So maybe it wasn’t too surprising to see such a large Davidson turnout.

By the end of the game, Davidson’s play had earned them the respect of the crowd and I would estimate that roughly 80% of the crowd was pulling for the upset. Stephen Curry nearly made it happen. From the start of the game, Curry made NBA-range three pointers and acrobatic lay-ups to keep Davidson in the game. By halftime, he had accounted for over half of his team’s points. Unfortunately, that was the only moderately exciting thing that can be said about the first half. The seemingly innumerable TV timeouts killed any momentum that may have started building. Both teams appeared tense and out of sync. In fact, it took over ten minutes for either team to break double digits in scoring. The first half ended at a sloppy score of 30-28, with Kansas leading.

The second half also started off fairly slowly, but about midway through the second half the action started to pick up. The stadium erupted when Davidson took a four point lead after some white guy came off the bench and made three consecutive treys. At that point, Davidson had all the momentum, while Kansas seemed discombobulated and lacking passion. Unfortunately for Davidson, fatigue started to set in for Stephen Curry and he missed a bunch of shots down the stretch, including a number of three point attempts. While Davidson struggled, Kansas, in workmanlike fashion, battled back to take a seemingly insurmountable six point lead with one minute to go.

With time winding down, Davidson needed something special to get back into the game. After a Kansas foul sent Davidson to the line, one free throw went in to narrow the gap to five. The second missed but they were somehow able to get the rebound. After quickly kicking it out to Curry, the legend-in-the-making nailed an NBA range three pointer to put the Wildcats within two. One of the truly amazing turn of events of the tournament quickly thrust Davidson (and the crowd) back into the game, with all the pressure on Kansas. Not surprisingly, Kansas missed their next shot after trying to kill as much time off the clock as possible, leaving Davidson one last chance to make history.

I’m not sure what the designed play was supposed to be, but Curry drove it down the court and appeared to be looking for a three point shot (and the win) but he was double teamed and could not get off a shot. Stephen Curry had to dish to a teammate who heaved a desperation three that never looked close to going in - and thus ended the run of Stephen Curry and the Davidson Wildcats. They certainly earned the crowd’s respect (and mine) and it looks like Mr. Curry will be back next year to try to re-capture the same magic that catapulted a relatively unknown team into the Elite Eight.

So overall, not a bad game to go see, considering I basically got the ticket for free. I got to see history in the making (the first time all four number ones advanced to the Final Four), was part of a record-setting crowd (yey me!) and saw one of the most exciting finishes of the tournament.

With all apologies to Cinderella, now it's time to really get down to business. I can only hope that the Final Four games provide as much drama and intrigue as we've seen in the preliminary rounds.

Why do we hate?

2008-03-27T14:11:00.004-04:00

Duke. Yankees. Red Sox. Manchester United. New England Patriots. Knicks. Notre Dame. Unless you’re a resident, an alumnus, or a bandwagon fan, those names probably conjure up a feeling that can best be described as a cross between hatred, bitterness and jealousy. Your low-budget team has been struggling to get by for most of its existence, with maybe one national championship to its name to go against umpteen sub-.500 seasons and first-round playoff/tournament exits.

Why do we hate? What is it about those pinstripes that makes everyone in the room cheer for the Mariners, A’s or whatever small-market team the Yankees happen to be playing? Why do we get so much glee from watching the Knicks toil in endless mediocrity? After your team has long been eliminated from the NIT, you keep watching each of Duke’s games, waiting and praying for an embarrassing end to Duke’s season. What is the rational explanation for wanting to see a 20 year old college student humiliated on national television?

Hatred has been on this Earth since the day Man was born. Hardly unique to sports, hatred has fueled economic growth, the spread of religion, and the formation and/or subsequent dissolution of countless nations. Hatred is borne out of fear. Fear of what is different, fear of what we don’t understand. Hatred is borne out of jealousy – we hate those who are luckier, more successful, better than us. Hatred is borne out of revenge. Someone has bested us and we hate them for it. We want to see them suffer, be humiliated, feel the pain we have felt.

Hatred is as natural as love, and the two are often intertwined, as a betrayal can easily turn feelings of love into hatred. Without hatred, there could be no love. Perhaps a bit trite, but a semblance of balance must exist in this world. Without evil, how would we know what is good? Without cold, hard winters, how could we appreciate the warmth of summer?

For many people, hatred is a way of life. This is not meant to be judgmental, just an observation. A child born in Serbia will grow up being taught the greatness of Serbia, and that neighboring Croatia is the root of all the country’s problems. The intense patriotic feeling the child experiences well into adulthood is in part borne out of a hatred for his neighbor. And certainly this example applies to the Middle East, Europe and even within our own country.

Authoritative bodies have learned to harness this hatred for ulterior motives, whether for political gains, expansion of religious ideals or even the achievement of a personal agenda. Of course, harnessing the mob mentality clearly has been used for horrific actions that I certainly don’t need to expound upon. In some cases, however, the motives are benign. A fear and hatred of communism lead the United States to engage Russia in a battle for display of technological prowess, ultimately leading to sending men to the moon. The technological developments borne from this competition continue to benefit our lives even today. The advent of satellites has immeasurably improved the world’s communication abilities, science was placed at the forefront of the nation's interests, and the country was galvanized into an effort to achieve the most that it could.

A population motivated by a common enemy can be a powerful force. Is ESPN any different? Are we being manipulated into hating? The hatred of a nearby rival can be viewed as natural, ie Springfield High football has a natural inclination to despise Shelbyville. But why hate the town, school or team that is a thousand miles away?

ESPN has to know that its over-the-top coverage of all things New York and Boston will alienate fans from other areas. But rather that stop watching, fans tune in even more, waiting for something bad to happen to these over-exposed teams. Every time Dick Vitale or Billy Packer announces a March Madness game, fans groan because of the constant lip-service paid to Duke and the ACC. But instead of watching another game, fans keep watching, just waiting for Billy Packer to rip their mid-major school so that they have even more of a reason to hate Duke and the big-time programs.

The more that ESPN builds up someone, the more we want them to fall. For Duke and the like, the only things that could conceivably be worse than missing the NCAA tournament would be if no one cared. What would happen to Notre Dame’s massive television deals if people simply stopped caring? Even when they go 3-9, people will watch every second of a crappy ND-Navy game just to see if ND will lose. The networks make money off our selfish desire to see others suffer the same agony of defeat that we have. Watching the favored elite fall can be very cathartic for fans of ordinary teams. Our own feelings of anger, shame and jealousy are released as we cheer against the elite and ultimately watch them suffer. The New England-New York Giants regular season finale had the highest ratings ever for a regular season game. Why? I guarantee you that at least half of the people watching that game (myself included) were openly rooting against the Patriots, so that they would fall short of the hallowed 16-0 mark.

I am not saying that being manipulated into hating by ESPN is a bad thing. I just think we should understand it. Having an enemy helps brings purpose to sports. As we all know, for there to be good, there must be evil. That presence of “evil” gives us a sense of purpose, a sense of being. Having a “favorite” enemy can enhance the sport-watching experience as much as having a true favorite team.

So whether you choose one of ESPN’s “pre-selected” heels or you go out and find your own, be thankful that you have that team to kick around when your own team is down in the dumps. If you really and truly hated a team, the most effective way to ultimately ruin them would be to stop watching…but what fun would that be?

Weekend Summary

2008-03-24T12:12:00.004-04:00

Thus ends weekend #1 of March Madness. However, outside of the city of Tampa, madness was on relatively short supply. In fact, the number of upsets in Tampa was higher than the total number of upsets in the rest of the country. While the nation saw all four 12 and 13 seeds in Tampa win (Siena, Villanova, Western Kentucky, San Diego), the upsets were relatively minor in the rest of the country.

Kansas State (11) defeated USC (6), which is an upset more in terms of expectations than actual seed, as many experts had USC going as far as the Elite Eight. I had expected Wisconsin to shut down the freshman-led USC, but as it turns out they accomplished the same thing, just against a different team and a different star freshman, in K-State and Michael Beasley.

Perhaps the most significant upset thus far was Davidson slaying the figurative Goliath, in Georgetown and 7’2” Roy Hibbert. Led by relatively tiny Stephen Curry (6’3”), Davidson stormed back from a large deficit to topple the second-seeded Hoyas. Another two-seed fell, although for many the question was not if Duke would lose before reaching the Final Four, but when. West Virginia handled Duke and sent the Blue Devils packing after the first weekend for their second consecutive year.

I have to confess that I actually did not watch too many games this weekend, due to traveling and generally doing things that involved not watching basketball. And I have to say, I completely understand when people say they don’t enjoy watching college basketball. The first game I watched was Michigan State-Temple, and seeing both teams barely clear double digits midway through the first half, well let’s just say I wasn’t eager to keep watching. I watched both Tennessee games, and though the Butler game was intense and massively nerve-wracking, the amount of fouls and free throws was frustrating. Both teams shot nearly 30 free throws each, and it seemed like it was virtually impossible for a player to drive to the basket without getting fouled. I suppose when both teams are shooting are 65% from the line, fouling isn’t a bad idea, but watching almost 60 free throws nearly made me want to chuck the television out the window. Anyway, beside the two Tennessee games, I also caught the end of both Duke games. I was upset when Belmont choked away the end of that game after looking like they would pull off the upset, but at least West Virginia finished the job in the next round.

The upcoming Sweet 16 games should (generally) provide more excitement and a higher level of play. The highlight has to be Tennessee-Louisville. The winner will most likely face off against UNC for a Final Four appearance. Both Louisville and Tennessee play an exciting style of basketball and have the talent to win the whole tournament. It’s a shame they have to face off this early in the tournament. I consider both to be the best tournament teams at their respective seed. Wisconsin-Davidson will also be an interesting matchup, although Wisconsin has to be the heavy favorite. Texas-Stanford features a two and three seed. Texas is one of the most (if not the most) battle-tested teams in the tournament, with an astounding fifteen games (11-4 record) against RPI top 50 teams. While Stanford did not play a tough out-of-conference schedule, the Pac-10 was enough of a proving ground to earn the Cardinal a three seed.

As expected, all four number one seeds remain alive, and UNC and Kansas have yet to be truly tested. Both Memphis and UCLA looked a little shaky and pulled out close wins. Kansas and UCLA are theoretically beneficiaries of the Tampa upsets, since both will face 12 seeds. UNC could have its hands full with Washington State. Michigan State has performed well thus far, but I don’t see them sticking with Memphis.

[Bracket Alert – Do not continue reading if you become extremely agitated/bored when hearing about others’ brackets]

Well, as I mentioned, all four number one seeds are still alive, which means all four of my Final Four picks are still kickin’. Despite correctly picking only 9 of the Sweet 16 participants, some kind of statistical anomaly has occurred in which all of my Elite Eight picks are still alive. In a somewhat disappointing discovery, it turns out I actually picked UCLA and not Kansas, which means that my bracket will look like 50% of the population, including the Sports Guy. I’m pretty sure that having the same picks as Bill Simmons means there is no way I can win. For example, two of his Final Four picks (USC, Pitt) have already been eliminated, and as a Tennessee fan, it makes extremely nervous that he made Tennessee his other Final Four pick.

For anyone that cares, my Elite Eight consists of UNC, Tennessee, Kansas, Wisconsin, Memphis, Texas, UCLA, and Xavier. Yeah, so I didn’t take anyone outside of the top three seeds. Big whoop, wanna fight about it?? You know my Final Four picks, and I apparently have UCLA defeating Kansas in the final.

We'll see how it turns out. I may be near the bottom of the standings now, but I have a feeling I'll move up after this weekend. For what it's worth, a bracket picked purely on seed would be around the 90th percentile in ESPN's bracket challenge, which is much higher than my bracker right now.

And...Boom Goes the Dynamite!

2008-03-20T11:41:00.001-04:00

March Madness is finally here! After putting up with months of ESPN highlights featuring hockey and NASCAR, finally something worth watching! Unlike NCAA Football, which has a two-team playoff and complicated formulas for selecting its participants, NCAA Basketball has it just about perfect. Every small conference, no-budget Division I team has the same chance of winning as the great powers. Granted, the last “mid-major” team to actually win it all was UNLV in 1990, but March Madness has seen its share of upsets and intrigue, including media darlings 11-seed George Mason and their Final Four run in 2006.

Perhaps this year is no different from years past, but the top seeds look really strong. While the two and three seeds also look strong, there is a clear delineation. I have to confess that I went with the chalk and have all four number ones in my Final Four. I usually try to avoid doing that, for two reasons:

First of all, it’s boring. Every boring schmoe out there picks all the #1 seeds to advance, so for me to win I feel like I have to do something different. And besides, it makes me feel clever when I pick that #7 seed to make the Sweet 16, or that #5 to reach the Final Four.

Of course, the second reason is simple statistics. In the history of the 64-team field (and 65 team field), at least one #1 seed has failed to make the Final Four. Even if you assume that a #1 seed has a 90% chance of winning each individual game they play, over four games that will factor to a 65% chance of making the Final Four. The overall probability of all four teams advancing to the Final Four with 65% odds is then 18%. And clearly, that is being very generous. The more realistic probabilities likely vary by round. Let’s say 98% for the first round, 80% for the second round, 75% for the Sweet 16, and 70% for the Regional Finals. Assuming those probabilities, a #1 seed has a 41% chance of advancing to the Final Four. The probability of ALL four #1 seeds advancing would then be a minuscule 2.8%. Such a probability is not so far-fetched, considering we have had 32 straight years without an all #1 seed Final Four.

Sooooo, with all that said, I’m “defying the odds” and taking all the #1 seeds. It’s still the most statistically likely scenario, as opposed to trying to find that three, four, or five seed that will inevitably crash the party. I don’t see Duke or Georgetown as much of a threat to reach the Final Four, but Texas and Tennessee have proven that they can knock off top competition. The Big East trio of Louisville, Pitt, and UConn would be the next set of potential party-crashers. In the South Region, UNC, Louisville, and Tennessee all play a similar style of offense, so whichever team’s shots are falling could win that region. Pitt has shown it can win big-time games by winning the Big East, but they may have used up all their good luck for the year with that run. UConn’s name gets tossed around a lot, and if they can somehow find a way to get past UCLA, they have a manageable path to the Final Four. Of course, UConn could just as easily get upset by Drake in the second round.

Last-minute thoughts on the regions:
South – I already mentioned that the Final Four berth will come down to UNC, Louisville, and Tennessee. Butler is a bit under-seeded and could prove to be a tough matchup for Tennessee, as their plodding half-court offense is the anti-thesis of Tennessee’s high-flying offensive machine. Mid-major sensations Winthrop and George Mason would face each other in the second round if they both find a way to advance, but I don’t see Washington State and Notre Dame slipping up.

Midwest - While I have picked Kansas to win the tournament, I see Clemson as the most dangerous team seeded outside of the top four. In fact, I would argue that they are more dangerous than all of the four seeds as well. Kansas-Clemson could be one the most exciting sweet 16 match-ups, if Clemson can get by Vanderbilt. Another team to watch is USC. As has been mentioned quite frequently, USC has the “’Melo Factor” and is hoping to ride freshman sensation OJ Mayo to a title. Honestly, I don’t see it happening, but they should be fun to watch. I expect the efficient and organized Wisconsin squad to contain OJ Mayo and advance to the Sweet 16, where Georgetown would await. I don’t believe I’d like to watch a Georgetown-Wisconsin game, with a final score probably in the range of 59-55.

South – Texas is the trendy pick for this region, but I am sticking with Memphis. Pitt has been on a roll, but can they really be expected to win the Big East AND advance to the Final Four? Michigan State has been streaky, while I can’t shake the feeling that Stanford is overrated. They may have two seven-footers, but I’m not sure if they can handle quicker teams. I could see Marquette surprising Stanford if they can work the outside shooting. However, the Regional final should come down to Texas and Memphis.

West – This region is UCLA’s to lose, and anything less that a Final Four appearance will be an enormous disappointment. Duke and Xavier are probably the weakest two and three seeds in the tournament, which means a team like Arizona or West Virginia could sneak into the Regional Final. If UCLA can get past UConn, I don’t see them losing until possibly the National Championship game.

Unfortunately, this doesn’t look like a great year for mid-majors. Butler is under-seeded and will be hard-pressed to even get out the first round. UNLV and Kent State play each other in the 8/9 game and would then face Kansas. Two other mid-majors in Drake and Western Kentucky are pitted against each other, but in a best case scenario won’t get any further than the Sweet 16. But like I said, it seems like we have this conversation every year and then someone like Davidson will make a magical run to the Regional Finals. I hope that we see another run, but most of all I’m just exciting to see some great basketball.

Friday's Action Lowdown

2008-03-14T12:20:00.001-04:00

Okay, I suppose I can do one more day of updates. After yesterday’s bloodbath, it would be hard not to say anything. Bottom line, does anyone want to get invited to the Dance? Nearly every bubble team lost yesterday, and many of those losses were rather embarrassing. Let’s look at this list.

Embarrassing (and likely eliminating) losses:
UAB (Tulsa – RPI 105), Houston (UTEP – 93), Florida (Alabama – 102), Maryland (Boston College – 124), Ole Miss (Georgia – 137), New Mexico (Utah – 98)

It should be noted that Baylor also fell to Colorado (157), arguably the worst loss of any bubble team yesterday, but Baylor’s profile is markedly better than the rest of these teams. As such, they still have a decent chance to make the tournament. Their profile isn’t spectacular, but they do have wins over Notre Dame, Texas A&M, and Kansas State, and other than the loss to Colorado, no losses outside the top 100.

Missed Opportunities:
Arizona (Stanford), Oregon (Washington State), UMass (Charlotte), Villanova (Georgetown), Arizona State (USC), Dayton (Xavier)

Other than Massachusetts’ loss to Charlotte, all of these losses came against teams that are locks to make the tournament. A win would have been an excellent opportunity to put an exclamation point on their tournament resumes, but surprisingly, all fell short.

Staying on Track:
Kent State (Toledo – 187), Texas A&M (Iowa State – 171), UNLV (TCU – 197), St. Joe’s (Richmond - 119), Temple (La Salle – 161)

Sure, they all won, but they didn’t exactly improve their profiles. All of these teams faced opponents with RPI’s of over 100. The next round of games will definitely provide a challenge, and an opportunity to make a statement, specifically St. Joe’s and Texas A&M, against Xavier and Kansas State, respectively.

Idle:
Kansas State, Mississippi State, Virginia Tech, Ohio State, Kentucky, Arkansas

If you don’t play, you can’t lose. These teams benefited while watching their bubble competition go down in flames.

Statement Wins:
Pitt (Louisville), West Virginia (UConn), Miami (NC State)

I said earlier that these teams simply need to not embarrass themselves and they would advance. Pitt and West Virginia certainly accomplished that by knocking off Big East big dogs. Miami’s opponent was not as impressive, but even a loss to their next round opponent Virginia Tech won’t knock them out of the tournament.

With the way things are going, maybe a team like Florida State or Oklahoma State could sneak into the mix. Of course, both face off against the one seeds in their tournaments. Florida State takes on UNC and OSU faces Texas. Florida State swept Miami and beat Clemson, and they took UNC to overtime last time they played. Oklahoma State has won six of its last eight, including a win over Kansas. They’ve played Texas tough twice, although they did lose both of those games. With the sad shape of the bubble, a big win by either FSU or OSU could at least get them into the at-large discussion.

11th Hour Bubble Watch

2008-03-13T10:03:00.003-04:00

After the first day of major conference play, the bubble is really starting to harden for a few teams. Syracuse probably sealed its fate after losing to fellow bubbler Villanova. West Virginia bolstered its chances by avoiding an embarrassing defeat to 12th seeded Providence.

As it stands, the bubble is not quite as fluid as the experts might lead you to believe. 21 bids have or will be accounted for by one-bid conferences. Another 20 teams are absolute locks, plus another five that are essentially locks.

That leaves 19 bids for the rest of the field (less if an unexpected power conference team wins an automatic bid) but 10 of those bids are likely spoken for by teams that merely need to avoid embarrassment in the first round of their tournaments. Another set of teams could clinch a bid with two wins (including UMass, Oregon and Texas A&M) but their standing is a little shakier. It’s definitely not a given that the teams in this category will survive. Throw in a couple of mid-major teams with good profiles but failed to win their conference auto-bid and that leaves ten-plus teams fighting for one last at-large bid. If Kent St. or Xavier fails to win their respective conferences, all the teams fighting for that last at-large spot will instead be fighting for a top spot in the NIT. Probably not what they had in mind…

As you may be aware, this is St. Patrick’s Day weekend. I’d love to provide daily updates on the conference tourney action (I’m only being half-sarcastic) but I’ll be in Chicago swilling green beer and pretending to be Irish for a day. So… this will probably be my last update before Selection Sunday.

Keep an eye on the Atlantic 10, SEC, and Pac 10 tournaments. I have a feeling those tournaments will have the biggest impact on bubble teams. While the Big East may be the most competitive tournament, most of the teams (aside from Villanova) know if they’ll be going to the Dance by now.

With all that said, this is how I see things at the moment:

Already In (14):
Cornell, Belmont, Winthrop, George Mason, Butler, Siena, Drake, Austin Peay, Davidson, Oral Roberts, Western Kentucky, San Diego, Portland State, Mount St. Mary’s,

Pending One-Bid Conferences (7):
America East, Big West, MEAC, Patriot League, Southland, SWAC, WAC

Absolute Locks – Major Conference AP Top 25 and/or any team within RPI Top 20 (20):
North Carolina, Duke, Kansas, Texas, Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan State, Purdue, Georgetown, Louisville, Connecticut, Notre Dame, Marquette, UCLA, Stanford, Washington State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Memphis, Xavier

Should Be Fine (5):
Gonzaga, BYU, Clemson, Oklahoma, USC

Decent Shape (7):
The pundits and/or numbers like these teams. Despite flawed profiles, they should get in, barring something embarrassing happening.
Kansas State, Baylor, Pitt, West Virginia, Mississippi State, Miami, Kent State

One More Win and They’re In (3):
Kentucky, Arkansas, Ohio State

Two More Wins To Be Safe (6):
Massachusetts, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, UNLV, Arizona, Oregon

Hoping Other Teams Slip Up (2):
St. Mary’s, South Alabama

If you’ve been keeping track, that’s 64 spots accounted for thus far, which means that the teams listed below could be competing for one spot. Of course, that assumes the previously mentioned teams will take care of business.

Praying Other Teams Slip Up (3):
Illinois State, VCU, Syracuse

Need a Deep Run (11):
Arizona State, Florida, Villanova, St. Joe’s, Dayton, Temple, Rhode Island, New Mexico, Maryland, Virginia Tech, UAB

Editors Note: After Rhode Island's first round tournament exit (its seventh loss in its last eight games) Rhode Island is officially done. The RPI of 77 and 7-9 conference record don't help, either.

Conference Tournament Preview

2008-03-11T15:39:00.004-04:00

With the regular season now completed, attention turns to the individual conference tournaments. Usually good for one or two surprises, the conference tournaments are a great blend of competition and desperation. For a great majority of the teams still playing in the tournaments, this is win-or-go-home time. For every Duke and UNC that has a bid locked up, there is an LSU or Georgia Tech that won’t go anywhere unless it continues to win.

Let’s take a look at some of the more intriguing tournaments:

ACC – The top four teams in this conference (UNC, Duke, Clemson, Virginia Tech) get a first-round bye, and you’d have to be crazy to think that UNC or Duke won’t get to the semi-finals. Assuming that Clemson can get by Maryland (or BC) in the quarter-finals, they may prove to be a tough matchup for Duke. After all, they took UNC to overtime twice this year. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a UNC-Clemson re-match in the ACC Final.

Atlantic 10 – This is probably the most difficult conference to figure out. Certainly Xavier looks to be the favorite, but it won’t be easy for them to navigate three straight wins. Of the twelve teams in the A-10 tournament, I wouldn’t be surprised to see any one of them win it, except perhaps Fordham (11-16, 6-10). For Xavier to win, they may have to go through Dayton, St. Joe’s and Massachusetts, arguably the four toughest teams in the A-10. And don’t count out two-seed Temple, who should at least get to the semi-finals.

Big 12 – The top four teams (Kansas, Texas, Kansas State, Oklahoma) have a bye and the luxury of an extra day of rest while the other eight teams battle it out. The winner will almost certainly come from that group, although Texas A&M or Baylor could sneak into the semi-finals. Texas and Kansas have to be considered the overwhelming favorites and look likely to meet in the final.

Big East – Similar to the ACC, A-10, and Big 12, the top four teams (Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame, UConn) get a first-round bye. Unlike the Big 12, the depth of this conference means that nearly every team has at least a shot of winning the tournament. Villanova or Syracuse will both be fighting for a selection berth and could knock off top seed Georgetown in the quarterfinals. Pitt could very well take down two-seed Louisville. Marquette blew out Notre Dame earlier this year. Would an upset in the tournament be so unlikely? Expect this tournament to be exciting and hard-fought.

Big Ten – Yawn. The top four teams (Wisconsin, Indiana, Purdue, Michigan State) are the clear favorites and I would be surprised if any of them did not reach the semi-finals. My guess says the final will be Wisconsin-Indiana, but it won’t matter since the favored four have all locked up bids anyway.

Pac 10 – With the exception of Oregon State (0-18 in conference play) each team has a chance to win at least a couple of games. UCLA is the clear favorite, but could Cal surprise them in the quarterfinals? Sure. Arizona has to be considered a sleeper. With a gimme first round game against Oregon State, Arizona could surprise an overrated Stanford team in the quarters, and then Washington State or Oregon would await in the semi-final. On the other side of the bracket, a UCLA-USC semi-final is a distinct possibility.

SEC – Although Tennessee is the favorite, half of the teams have a chance to win it all. Kentucky, Florida, and Ole Miss will be playing with desperation, trying to garner of the last at-large bids. If Tennessee plays with complacency, they could find themselves out early. Three of the four potential quarterfinals could have huge at-large implications: Vanderbilt-Arkansas, Mississippi State-Florida, Kentucky-Ole Miss. Throw Tennessee in the mix and any one of those teams could win the SEC.

A few of the smaller conferences are in action today and tomorrow. Fans of bubble teams are wringing their hands after watching Gonzaga and South Alabama fall last night. However, Davidson managed to hold on and claim an auto bid. Butler goes up against Cleveland State tonight for the Horizon League automatic bid, which could be a tough game for Butler. Cleveland State already beat Butler once in January and gave them a good battle on Butler’s home court a couple of weeks ago.

Show Me the Money

2008-03-03T13:31:00.003-05:00

NFL free agency is in full swing, although up until this weekend there had been very little movement. A few of the major signings:

Bernard Berrian signed with Minnesota for $42M
Donte Stallworth signed with Cleveland for $35M
Lance Briggs re-signed with Chicago for $36M
Former Bengals DE Justin Smith signed with San Fran for $45M
Michael Turner signed with Atlanta for $34M
Asante Samuel signed with Philly for $57M
Jerry Porter signed with Jacksonville for $30M
Gibril Wilson signed with Oakland for $39M

I am not the first person to come up with this observation, but let me just comment that it seems ludicrous for Bernard Berrian to have received a bigger contract than former teammate and Pro Bowl nominee Lance Briggs. Such is the premium for offense these days, I suppose. All I can say is, thanks goodness the NFL has a salary cap, or these contracts would be even more preposterous.

Consider that none of the wide receivers I mentioned (Stallworth, Berrian, Porter) has ever recorded a 1000-yard season. Sure, they’ve all been close, but are complementary receivers really going for an annual salary of $5M+? These guys can stretch the field, but are they go-to receivers? For those of you counting, that’s $100M in contracts signed by a group of receivers who have never proven they are All-Pro caliber. As a Bears fan, I recall a few of our previous leading receivers and none of them ever did anything after leaving Chicago. Remember Marcus Robinson? He put up 1400 yards in his second season but never broke 750 after that. Marty Booker had two consecutive 1000 yard seasons, but after being traded to Miami, he also never broke 750 yards in a season. And if there is a place where wide receivers go to die, it has to be Minnesota. Since Randy Moss left in 2004, no receiver has topped 700 yards, including the immortal Travis Taylor, Bobby Wade (an ex-Bear) and Troy Williamson. Maybe Bernard Berrian will break the trend, but I doubt it, especially with the likes of Tavaris Jackson lobbing the rock to him.

You can’t blame these teams for trying to improve themselves, but to me, wide receivers are one of the least important positions in football. Unless you have an absolute game-breaker like Moss, or someone as consistently excellent as Marvin Harrison, you’re probably wasting your money. As long as the guy has decent speed, can catch, and runs solid routes, he’ll give you 90% of what you’re getting out of these $30M guys. Look at Welker. Not to sing the Patriots’ praises, but he is exactly what some of these teams need. The Patriots were able to sign him for $18M over 5 years, about half the annual salary of what Bernard Berrian just received.

Without a solid offensive line and quarterback, it doesn’t matter who you line up at wideout, so why overpay? Maybe there’s a reason why Cleveland, Jacksonville and Minnesota are some of the last remaining members of the not-so-illustrious “Never Won a Super Bowl” club. Okay, maybe that’s not fair, but I think it is fair to question the signings. As always, time will tell, and it’s often better to try to do something than do nothing, but if I were a fan of one of these three teams, I wouldn’t be surprised to see another 700 yard/5 TD season out of these guys.

Bubble Watch Update

2008-03-02T19:29:00.004-05:00

Many of the smaller conferences have wrapped up regular season play by now. The major conference teams have at most two or three games remaining. At this point, more bubble teams seem to be losing rather than winning, so picking the last couple of slots may be more an excercise in deciding who has slid less over the last month. Mid-major teams like Southern Illinois, UAB, and New Mexico could benefit if more marginal 'major conference' teams continue to perform poorly.

The Big 12, A-10, and ACC seem to be struggling at the moment, while the Big East looks like the most dominant conference. Its top five teams are virtual locks, and will likely send a total of eight teams. The SEC and Big Ten are struggling outside of the elite (Tennesee, MSU, Indiana, Wisconsin) and will likely recieve fewer bids then they are historically accustomed to seeing.

Small Conference Leaders (15)
These teams absolutely will not make the tournament unless they win their conference tourney. The current regular season leader is listed for each conference, but you can throw that out the window once you get to single elimination.

America East – MD Baltimore County (RPI: 88)
Atlantic Sun – Belmont (87)
Big Sky – Portland St. (96)
Big South – UNC Asheville (131) Winthrop and UNC Asheville finished the Big South regular season tied for first after UNC Asheville beat Winthrop on the road, with Asheville having the slight RPI edge.
Big West – Cal St. Northridge (103)
Ivy League – Cornell (68)
MEAC – Morgan St (124)
Metro Atlantic – Siena (79)
Northeast – Robert Morris (110) After finishing the season on a 13 game win streak, Robert Morris was finally able to catch and pass Wagner and Sacred Heart in the final regular season standings.
Ohio Valley – Austin Peay (91)
Patriot League – American (101)
Southland – Lamar (133)
Summit League – Oral Roberts (65)
SWAC – Alabama St. (218)
WAC – Boise St. (98)

Small Conference Leaders who actually do have a chance of making the final field even without winning their conference tournament (SCLWADHACOMTFFEWWTCT) (8)
Colonial – VCU (42)
Horizon – Butler (19)
MAC – Kent St . (35)
Missouri Valley – Drake (14)
Mountain West – BYU (25)
Southern - Davidson (44)
Sun Belt – South Alabama (28) Defeating Western Kentucky on the road left South Alabama in sole possession of first place, and they won their next four to clinch the regular season title.
West Coast – Gonzaga (31) The Zags move into first place after beating St. Mary’s fairly handily. However, both teams look likely to make the field.

Mid-Major At-Large (12, 4 Bids)
Probably In:
West Coast – St. Mary’s (32) With two losses in their last three games, St. Mary’s profile is perhaps not quite as strong as they’d like to be completely comfortable going into the conference tourney. Wins over Drake, Oregon, Gonzaga, and Seton Hall may come in handy if they slip.

Better Be Careful:
Mountain West – UNLV (27)
Missouri Valley – Illinois St (34) This team finished on a tear, knocking off Wright State and MVC rivals Creighton and Southern Illinois. They do have a few questionable losses, but they have a strong profile and the solid finish should put them in.
Missouri Valley – Southern Illinois (48) With so many major conference teams trying to play themselves into the NIT, maybe it’s time to give Southern Illinois a look. They did lose their home finale against Illinois State and have a total of 13 losses, but they also played one of the top ten most difficult schedules. They recorded wins over Mississippi State, St. Mary’s, Western Kentucky, and Drake.

Outside Looking In:
Sun Belt – Western Kentucky (49) With no wins over top-100 RPI teams, Western Kentucky will realistically have to win the Sun Belt tournament to make the field, despite a 22-6 record.
Missouri Valley – Creighton (50) This team has a much more consistent profile than Southern Illinois. They had only two losses outside the top 100, but no true marquee win. They beat Oral Roberts in bracket-buster play, and knocked off St. Joe’s in OT early in the season.
Conference USA – UAB (51) May get a look, but with five losses to teams outside of the top 100, the odds are long. They do have wins over Kentucky, Houston, and Cincinnati.
Mountain West – New Mexico (53)
Southland - Stephen F. Austin (61)

Thanks For Playing:
Conference USA - Houston (67) Losing to East Carolina (RPI 252) may have sealed Houston’s fate. They have only one top-100 RPI win (Kentucky), although up until the ECU loss they had only lost to tournament-worthy teams. Houston will have to win the Conference USA tournament. Just making the conference final won’t be enough.
Horizon - Wright State (71) Probably no shot to begin with, but Wright State ended its regular season with three straight losses.

Potential One Seeds (7)
C-USA – Memphis (2)
SEC – Tennessee (1)
Big 12 – Kansas (8)
Big 12 – Texas (5)
Pac-10 – UCLA (9)
ACC – Duke (4)
ACC – North Carolina (3)

A-10 (6, 2 bids)
Definitely In:
Xavier (6)

Better Be Careful:
UMass (38) Unlike most of its A-10 brethren, UMass has actually won a few games lately and is on a four game win streak. They swept Rhode Island and hold wins over Houston and Syracuse. By no means a sure bet, UMass still has a pretty good chance if they can win their final two games and make a decent conference tourney run.

Outside Looking In:
Dayton (36) Having won only four of their last twelve games, Dayton is in big trouble. They must win their final two and probably advance to the conference final to have a chance.
St. Joe’s (52) Other than sweeping UMass, St. Joe’s has done very little. Since beating Villanova, St. Joseph’s has gone 2-4, including two home defeats to mid-tier A-10 teams La Salle and St. Louis.
Rhode Island (55) This team has lost six of its last eight games. Without a true marquee win, Rhode Island may have to win the A-10 tourney to make the final field.

Thanks For Playing:
Temple (80) Not much of a chance to being with, but Temple blew any shot by losing at home to Fordham. Their overall record now stands at 15-12.

Big Ten (5, 4 Bids)
Definitely In:
Wisconsin (11)
Michigan St. (15)
Indiana (16)
Purdue (29)

Outside Looking In:
Ohio State (54) How the (not-so) mighty have fallen. Once a near-lock to make the final 65, Ohio State has lost its last four to fall to 8-8 in conference play. And despite those eight Big Ten wins, only one (Minnesota) has come over a top-100 foe. The Buckeyes can still pull it together with wins against Purdue and Michigan State in its last two games.

SEC (6, 3 bids)
Definitely In:
Vanderbilt (10)

Better Be Careful:
Mississippi State (37) 11-3 in conference play, Mississippi State is certainly benefiting from a down year in the SEC. They lack an impressive non-conference win but haven’t lost to a team outside the RPI top 100.
Arkansas (39) Beating Vanderbilt stopped the Razorback’s recent slide, but they aren’t out of trouble yet. A win at Ole Miss on Tuesday could make their bid a sure thing.

Outside Looking In:
Ole Miss (45)
Kentucky (59) It’s looking more and more like Kentucky is starting to find itself as a team. They may have over-extended themselves early in the season, but hold a 10-3 conference record.
Florida (62) Losing at home to Mississippi State hurts a reeling Florida profile. Their conference record is decent (8-6), but only two of those wins came against top-100 SEC teams. Florida has a chance to improve its profile with Tennessee and Kentucky on the schedule this week.

Big East (11, 8 Bids)
Definitely In:
Georgetown (7)
UConn (13)
Notre Dame (20)
Marquette (18)
Louisville (15)

Probably In:
Pittsburgh (23) Probably not in the same league as the teams listed above, but winning at Syracuse may have given Pitt some separation from the rest of the Big East field.

Better Be Careful:
West Virginia (41)
Syracuse (57)

Outside Looking In:
Villanova (63)
Seton Hall (73)

Big 12 (7, 6 bids)
Probably In:
Oklahoma (30) They don’t have a great conference record (7-7) but they did sweep Baylor and Texas Tech. Their win yesterday against Texas A&M was very much needed. Oklahoma can also fall back on its impressive non-conference wins over Arkansas, Gonzaga, and West Virginia.

Better Be Careful:
Baylor (33)
Oklahoma (34)
Kansas State (43) Suddenly not looking so great, K State has dropped its last four. Kansas State also lacks non-conference heft, with its most notable win coming against Cal. Their next two games (Colorado, Iowa St.) are relatively easy, so a failure in either one would be damaging.
Texas A&M (46) Like Kansas State, Texas A&M has hit a bit of a wall, losing four of its last five to fall to 7-7 in the Big 12. The remaining two games are very tough (at Baylor, Kansas), and a 7-9 conference record might seal their NIT fate. However, they don’t have a terrible loss, and they did beat Ohio State and Oral Roberts in non-conference play.
Texas Tech (47) These guys have to be mentioned in the same breath as Texas A&M and Kansas State now. Their RPI rankings and conference records are almost identical. Coming off of a win over Texas, Texas Tech just might be able to sneak into the final field. With its last two games at Kansas and at home against Baylor, they will be hard-pressed to keep their momentum going.

Outside Looking In:
Oklahoma State (72) Is it too late for the Cowboys? They have won five straight, including wins over Baylor, Texas A&M, and Kansas. They lack a major non-conference win, but could pull to 9-7 in the Big 12 if they can beat Oklahoma at home and Texas on the road in their last two games.
Thanks For Playing:
Missouri (99)

Pac-10 (7, 5 bids)
Definitely In:
Stanford (17)

Probably In:
Washington State (21)

Better Be Careful:
Arizona (22) Sure, they have the number one SOS, but the loss column has grown considerably. They can claim wins against Texas A&M, UNLV, and Houston, as well as a sweep against Washington State. However, their conference record is only 7-8 and two of their three remaining games will be a challenge (UCLA at home, at Oregon).
USC (40) Solid profile with non-conference wins against Oklahoma and Southern Illinois, USC probably just needs to win one of its last two (Stanford, Cal) to be sure of a bid. Will the opening home loss to Mercer (RPI 315) come back to haunt them?
Arizona State (66) Not playing very well as of late, but if they can beat Oregon and Oregon State to finish the season, they will have a 10-8 Pac-10 conference record. They swept Arizona and have wins over Stanford, USC, and an impressive non-conference win over Xavier.

Outside Looking In:
Oregon (60)

Thanks For Playing:
Cal (94) 6-10 conference record says it all.

ACC (9, 3 Bids)
Probably In:
Clemson (24)

Better Be Careful:
Miami (26) One of the few ACC teams trying to play its way into the tournament, not out of it. Non-conference wins over Mississippi State and VCU are looking better and better. Despite the early season ACC slump, Miami could end up at 9-7, with two winnable games coming up this week.
Maryland (51)

Outside Looking In:
Virginia Tech (56)
Florida State (69) No chance in hell right now, but if they win their last two (at UNC, Miami) then maybe they’ll be a marginal candidate.
Wake Forest (84) Since beating Duke, Wake has lost its last three. The home win over BYU is the only win worth mentioning in a pretty soft non-conference schedule. If they win their last two, Wake can get to 8-8 in the ACC, but that might not be enough.

Thanks For Playing:
Georgia Tech (77) Two for their last eight, and the last home loss to Wake Forest was especially damaging. If they run the table, they’ll still only have an 8-8 conference record. Oh, and they currently have a 12-15 record.
NC State (85) Losing seven in a row tends to bring down the tournament profile a bit.
Boston College (112) See above description. Boston College has only won four games in the year 2008.

Last Four In:
Texas Tech
Arizona State
Southern Illinois
Maryland

Last Four Out:
Florida
Ohio State
Virginia Tech
Dayton

Total Bid Allocation:
ACC - 5
Atlantic 10 - 2
Big East - 8
Big Ten - 4
Big 12 - 8
Missouri Valley - 3
Mountain West - 2
Pac 10 - 6
SEC - 4
WCC - 2

Terrelle Pryor Decision Exclusive!

2008-02-19T17:16:00.004-05:00

Just kidding. Nothing has happened. In somewhat unrelated news, former highly touted prospect Ryan Perrilloux has just been suspended indefinitely by LSU. These "can't-miss" guys apparently can miss from time to time.

Bubble Update

2008-02-17T15:27:00.006-05:00

As much as I'd like to continue to do a full write-up on each potential tournament team, that would take way too much time. The real value is in the week-to-week changes, so I'll focus on that. Feel free to refer to my previous post for information on all teams.

With that said, let's get rolling.

Small Conference Leaders (15)
These teams absolutely will not make the tournament unless they win their conference tourney. The current regular season leader is listed for each conference, but you can throw that out the window once you get to single elimination.

America East – MD Baltimore County (RPI: 104)
Atlantic Sun – Belmont (99)
Big Sky – Portland St. (132)
Big South – Winthrop (116) Winthrop moves into first place in the Big South after previous conference leader UNC Asheville dropped its third consecutive game.
Big West – Cal St. Northridge (106)
Ivy League – Cornell (82)
MEAC – Morgan St (162) In a tie atop the standings with Norfolk State. Previous leader Hampton remains one game back. The winner of this conference will certainly be a candidate for the play-in game, along with the winner of the SWAC.
Metro Atlantic – Siena (92) Siena moved into first place in the Metro Atlantic after knocking off previous leader Rider. However, a loss in the following game puts them back into a two-team tie.
Northeast – Wagner (115) Wagner is in a close race, currently tied with Robert Morris and previous conference Sacred Heart a half game back.
Ohio Valley – Austin Peay (108)
Patriot League – American (124) Previous conference leader Lafeyette has now lost four in a row. American actually could be a dangerous tournament team, as they proved with their early season win at Maryland.
Southland – Lamar (135)
Summit League – Oral Roberts (45)
SWAC – Alabama St. (213)
WAC – Boise St. (78) Recently deposed Utah St. is on a two-game losing streak, moving Boise St. into first place in the WAC.

Small Conference Leaders who actually do have a chance of making the final field even without winning their conference tournament (SCLWADHACOMTFFEWWTCT) (8)
Colonial – VCU (65)
Horizon – Butler (19)
MAC – Kent St . (44)
Missouri Valley – Drake (10)
Mountain West – BYU (29)
Southern - Davidson (56) I moved Davidson into this category due to the recent poor performance of several at-large bubble teams. 17-0 is impressive in any conference, and if Davidson finishes undefeated, they will have to warrent consideration. Unfortunately, their best win is over Georgia Southern (89).
Sun Belt – Western Kentucky (50) By default, Western Kentucky moves into first place in the Sun Belt after South Alabama lost on the road at Middle Tennessee. I don't particularly like Western Kentucky's at-large chances right now, given that the highest ranked team they've beaten is Middle Tennessee (134) but crazier things have happened.
West Coast – St. Mary’s (27)

Mid-Major At-Large (12, 3 Bids)
Probably In:
West Coast - Gonzaga (39)

Better Be Careful:
Mountain West – UNLV (32)
Sun Belt – South Alabama (35) The loss at Middle Tennessee really hurts this team. Their next game is at Western Kentucky, where a win would put them back into first place in the conference. Their non-conference losses are nothing to be ashamed of, but it would have been nice if they could have won one more big game to add to their victory over Mississippi State.

Outside Looking In:
Conference USA - Houston (49) Even though they lost at Memphis, Houston has as good a profile as any of these other mid-major teams. They don't have a bad loss, but don't have a great win either, though the home win over Kentucky is decent.
Missouri Valley – Illinois St (53)
Missouri Valley - Southern Illinois (55) After the win over Drake, might as well put them on this list. Home wins over St. Mary's and Western Kentucky are nice, but not enough to overcome its 12 losses, over half of which came against teams that are not going to make the tournament.
Mountain West – New Mexico (54) New Mexico is making a nice run here at the end of the season, and if they can run the table, they will certainly merit discussion. Would not get in today, however.
Southland - Stephen F. Austin (59) With a 17-3 record, including a win at Oklahoma, Stephen F. Austin is an interesting scenario. Not likely to improve their numbers since their remaining opponents have an average RPI of around 200, but with a 22-3 record, it might be hard to turn them down.
Horizon - Wright State (64) Okay, I'm from Dayton, so I have to give these guys some props. They are on a ten game win streak and knocked off Butler earlier this season. With wins in upcoming games at Illinois State and Butler, Wright State could see its name pop up in more at-large discussions.

Thanks For Playing:
MAC – Ohio (62) Last week's losses at Toledo and Kent State have sealed Ohio's fate.
Colonial – George Mason (63) After losing at home, George Mason's marginal profile has absorbed about as much damage as it can. Six losses to 100+ RPI teams won't overcome its early wins against Dayton and Kansas State.
Missouri Valley – Creighton (69) Consecutive conference losses leave Creighton with an 8-7 conference record, which isn't helped by the fact that they only have one win worth mentioning.
Mountain West – San Diego St. (73) Three consecutive losses have put San Diego State in a deep hole. With no quality non-conference wins, it's not going to happen.

Potential One Seeds (7)
C-USA – Memphis (3)
SEC – Tennessee (1)
Big 12 – Kansas (5)
Big 12 – Texas (6) – Wins at home over Kansas and at Baylor move the Longhorns into potential one seed territory.
Pac-10 – UCLA (8)
ACC – Duke (2)
ACC – North Carolina (4)

A-10 (6, 4 bids)
Definitely In:
Xavier (10)

Better Be Careful:
St. Joe’s (43) St. Joseph won its two games this week, but I have to move them down because the overall quality of the A-10 appears to be dipping, and St. Joe's could get caught in a numbers game if they don't seperate themselves.
Rhode Island (25) Having lost two of their last three, Rhode Island is starting to slip, and their lack of a marquee win could cost them come selection time. The win at Syracuse is looking much better now.
Dayton (23)

Outside Looking In:
UMass (38) Since starting 13-4, Massachussets has lost five of its last seven games, including its most recent home loss to Fordham (156). Like Dayton, UMass probably won't end up any better than 8-8 in the A-10.
Temple (60)

Big Ten (5)
Definitely In:
Wisconsin (13)
Michigan St. (14)
Indiana (24) Indiana did lose at home to Wisconsin, but they also beat OSU on the road and crushed Michigan State at home. Barring a collapse, Indiana is in.
Purdue (28) Thanks to impressive wins over Wisconsin and Michigan State, plus their 12-1 conference record, Purdue can start planning its March Madness practices.

Probably In:
Ohio State (36)

SEC (6, 4 bids)
Definitely In:
Vanderbilt (11) What a difference a week can make. While they still haven't proven they can play strong on the road, Vanderbilt just knocked off top competitors Florida and Kentucky to solidify their place in the tournament.

Probably In:
Arkansas (31)

Better Be Careful:
Mississippi State (46) Impressive win over Arkansas gives Mississippi State an 8-2 SEC record, which helps neutralize its lack of a significant non-conference win.
Florida (57)

Outside Looking In:
Ole Miss (48) Wow. After starting 13-0, Ole Miss has gone 3-7 in the SEC, including two losses to Auburn (148). Its wins over Clemson and South Alabama won't bail them out if this mess.
Kentucky (71)

Big East (11, 8 Bids)
Definitely In:
Georgetown (7)
UConn (9)

Probably In:
Notre Dame (26)
Marquette (16)
Louisville (15) – With the win over Georgetown and two following road wins, Louisville looks to solidly be in the tournament.

Better Be Careful:
Pittsburgh (18)
West Virginia (40)
Syracuse (47) After losing at South Florida I was ready to write Syracuse off, but then they turn around and thump Georgetown. They still have a very tough schedule, but right now they would be in.

Outside Looking In:
Villanova (61)
Seton Hall (67) - Not helping their cause with four straight losses, even if they were to top opponents.

Thanks For Playing:
Providence (94) - They have now lost seven of their last eight to drop completely out of the race. They may not even make the Big East tournament at this point.

Big 12 (6, 4 bids)
Definitely In:
Kansas State (30)

Probably In:
Texas A&M (37)

Better Be Careful:
Baylor (42) Now losers of five of their last six, Baylor is treading in dangerous waters right now. Granted, three of the losses were to Texas and Kansas, but still...A win at Oklahoma this Tuesday would really help them out.
Oklahoma (34)

Outside Looking In:
Texas Tech (55)
Missouri (74)

Pac-10 (7, 4 bids)
Definitely In:
Stanford (21)

Probably In:
Arizona (17)
USC (33)
Washington State (22) After a three-game home slide, Washington State has now picked up wins over Oregon and USC to reach 20 wins.

Outside Looking In:
Oregon (52)
Arizona State (75) - Interesting situation here: ASU starts off 14-2, loses its next five, and then wins at Arizona and at home against Stanford. I'd be ready to put them in the tournament, but then they turn around and lose at home to Cal.
Cal (74)

ACC (8, 3 Bids)
Probably In:
Clemson (20)

Better Be Careful:
Maryland (51)
Wake Forest (61) No one else from the ACC seems to want to take the opportunity, so I'll go ahead and give the edge to Wake, despite the sub-par RPI. They can't win on the road, but they have a 6-5 conference record, including an impressive win over Duke. They also beat BYU fairly handily, and don't have a terrible loss. The remaining schedule is tough, so if they do well, they'll deserve to get in; if they don't, they won't.

Outside Looking In:
Miami (41)
NC State (58) Three straight losses leave NC State at 4-7 in the ACC, and the only have one or two more games out of five that they "should win". Not looking good.
Georgia Tech (70)
Boston College (81) – They finally won a game after losing six straight, so why not add them to this list? Plus, they have a better conference record than NC State
Virginia Tech (72)

Last Four In:
Dayton
Wake Forest
Florida
South Alabama

Last Four Out:
Arizona State
Miami
Houston
Stephen F. Austin

The way I see it, these eight teams are on very tenuous ground right now: UNLV, South Alabama, Dayton, Rhode Island, Florida, Syracuse, Baylor, and Wake Forest. Oklahoma, West Virginia, Mississippi State and St Joe’s are also somewhat marginal, but they are a step above the first bunch. The teams ranked ahead of these (“Probably In”) will almost certainly get in. In my opinion, the vast majority of teams from the major conferences that are listed in the “Outside Looking In” category really do not have profiles that warrant strong consideration. One characteristic that most of them share is a sub-.500 conference record. My memory may be hazy, but it seems very rare for any team to get into the tournament with a sub-.500 conference record. Also, I actually had a difficult time justifying letting in a couple of the teams that I did select, including Wake Forest and Dayton. Assuming a few upsets (and unexpected auto bids) in conference tournaments, the at-large bid pool will shrink, squeezing out some of these marginal teams.

Of the teams I haven’t listed as receiving bids, Kentucky, Arizona State and Villanova have the most potential to make a season-ending run to claim one of the last spots, given their decent conference records (at least relative to their bubble competitors) and remaining chances to score some big wins.

You know what really grinds my gears?

2008-02-13T10:07:00.002-05:00

Virginia, where do you get off calling yourself a ‘Commonwealth’? Do you think you’re better than the rest of us? New York, Illinois, and even Alabama bust their ass everyday without the self-serving dignity of calling themselves a Commonwealth. You think that makes you sounds more sophisticated? Oh, I’m a Commonwealth! Well you know that sounds like to me? Communism. And nobody likes Communists.

Who's In and Who's Out?

2008-02-08T18:01:00.000-05:00

In the first of what should be several iterations, I will be taking a look at the potential March Madness teams and evaluating who is in and who is out. I'll mostly be considering what the teams have done thus far in the season, with an emphasis on recent form. I'll also be looking ahead to see how difficult the rest of the schedule will be for some of the bubble teams.

Conference Leaders that won’t get in without winning their conference (16)
These conference leaders will need a minor miracle to advance to the dance if they don't win their conference tournaments. In case of ties atop the conference standing, I've taken the team with the highest RPI.

America East – MD Baltimore County (RPI: 109)
Atlantic Sun – Belmont (110)
Big Sky – Portland St. (129)
Big South – NC Asheville (73) Decent RPI for a small conference team and undefeated in conference play, but can only boast two wins over teams in the RPI top 200 (South Carolina and Winthrop)
Big West – Cal St. Northridge (106)
Ivy League – Cornell (75)
MEAC – Hampton (103)
Metro Atlantic – Rider (108)
Northeast – Sacred Heart (177)
Ohio Valley – Austin Peay (121)
Patriot League – Lafayette (143)
Southern – Davidson (59) With several very close losses to top teams like Duke and UNC and currently undefeated in conference play, Davidson could warrant consideration, but their best win is only at Appalachian State (RPI 111)
Southland – Lamar (167)
Summit League – Oral Roberts (49) In the same boat as Davidson (undefeated in conference play) but they lack a top 100 win.
SWAC – Alabama St. (223) Definitely headed for the play-in game if they make the tournament.
WAC – Utah St. (82)

Mid-Major Conference Leaders That Could Get In Without Winning Their Tourney (7)
Some of these teams would get in, should they fail to win their conference tournaments, but some would not. These teams all suffer from playing weaker conference opponents and cannot afford to lose many more games. At this point, they all lead their conferences, but that doesn't mean much come tournament time.

Colonial – VCU (62) They have two decent wins (Maryland, Houston) but probably won't have enough credentials as an at-large unless they run the table and make the conference final.
Horizon – Butler (20) They have to be a virtual lock at this point, with a 20-2 record and wins over Ohio State, Texas Tech and Virginia Tech. Butler's only two losses were away against the top two teams in the league, Wright St and Cleveland State, both ranked in the RPI top-100. A win over Drake would be the clincher.
MAC – Kent St . (50) Kent St. has a couple of decent wins against at-large bubblers George Mason and Illinois St. A win at St. Mary's would definitely help their cause if they lose the MAC tourney.
Missouri Valley – Drake (6) 19-1 with the only loss at St. Mary's. They swept top MVC contenders Creighton (53) and Illinois St. (52), so they have to be considered a lock.
Mountain West – BYU (41) BYU would probably get an at-large bid at this point. The win over Louisville is nice. They were blown out at UNLV, so BYU will need a strong showing in the re-match to keep any at-large hopes alive.
Sun Belt – South Alabama (35) South Alabama lacks a signature non-conference, although the win over Mississippi State is decent. Their four losses have come by a combined 13 points, including a 2OT loss at Vanderbilt. Tough call at this point, and they will definitely need to win out the regular season to keep any at-large hopes alive.
West Coast – St. Mary’s (19) St Mary's boasts an 18-3 record and wins over Gonzaga, Drake, Oregon and Seton Hall. Would seem to have a pretty solid case for at large bid. The conference title is no guarantee with Gonzaga and San Diego (already beat St. Mary's once) in the mix.

Small Conference At-Large (8, 2 bids)
Colonial – George Mason (47) George Mason have defeated current conference leader VCU and have also scored wins over Kansas State, Dayton, and South Carolina. Unfortunately they also have four losses to RPI 150+ teams. Probably too many losses to overcome at this point.
MAC – Ohio (63) The Bobcats can claim a win over current MAC leader Kent State, as well as a win at Maryland and a home win over Ivy leader Cornell. This week's loss at Eastern Michigan (227) was a severe blow to any at-large bid chances. Seven losses is a bit much for their schedule strength.
Missouri Valley – Illinois St (52) Won at Creighton, which would give them a huge advantage if the selection came down to one of the other. They really could have used a win at home over Drake, but fell 73-70. Just miss the cut at this point.
Missouri Valley – Creighton (53)If Illinois State doesn't get in, neither does Creighton, whose credentials are much weaker. Not much to brag about other than an OT win at home over St. Joe's.
Mountain West – UNLV (32) Blew out current conference leader BYU, but the loss this week at Utah really hurts them. I'll give them the benefit of the doubt for now, but they really need to beat BYU on the road to solidify their chances.
Mountain West – San Diego St. (57) No notable non-conference wins to speak of, and are third fiddle in the MWC. I don't see it happening unless they knock off BYU and UNLV (back-to-back games in late February).
Sun Belt – Western Kentucky (56) No wins over top-100 RPI opponents, although they did play Tennessee and Gonzaga tough. Must win at home over South Alabama (Feb 21) but I can't put them in right now.
West Coast - Gonzaga (33) Has wins over UConn and St. Joe's. Has six losses, but all were close and five of the losses were to teams that are virtual locks to reach the tournament. Remaining schedule is fairly manageable, so I expect Gonzaga to finish strong.

Potential One Seeds (6)
'Nuff said.
C-USA – Memphis (3)
SEC – Tennessee (1)
Big 12 – Kansas (5)
Pac-10 – UCLA (7)
ACC – Duke (2)
ACC – North Carolina (4)

A-10 (6, 5 bids)
Definitely In:
Xavier (15) Wins against Indiana and Kansas State, plus no terrible losses. Xavier still has several challenging conference matchups, but they appear to be in excellent shape.

Probably In:
St. Joe’s (45) St. Joe's doesn't have any great non-conference wins, but they did have very close losses at Syracuse and Creighton, plus a home OT loss to Gonzaga. They have won 11 of their last 13 and are looking strong in conference play. Saturday's matchup against Xavier should provide a good barometer, but they look to be in at this point.
Rhode Island (23) Rhode Island did manage to beat Syracuse, and don't really have a bad loss, other than losing away at St. Louis, which isn't really that terrible. At 19-4, Rhode Island is a strong position.

Better Be Careful:
Dayton (14) Dayton has scored impressive wins over Louisville and Pitt, but has slid drastically in conference play, in part due to injuries. The Flyers' remaining schedule is set up perfectly, with all the challenging games at home, and away trips to the weaker A-10 foes.
UMass (22) Has wins over Syracuse, Houston and Dayton, but a couple of non-conference losses (Northern Iowa and IUPUI) hurt their profile. With a 4-4 conference record, UMass can't afford many more slip-ups.

Outside Looking In:
Temple (79) At 11-10, Temple probably doesn't even deserve to be discussed. Other than a home win over Xavier, Temple's schedule is littered with losses and unimpressive wins. Temple's next three games (UMass, Rhode Island, UD) will make or break their bid.

Big Ten (5)
Definitely In:
Wisconsin (16) Currently at 19-3, Wisconsin boasts a win at Texas and no losses to teams outside the RPI top 50. Co-Big Ten leaders with Purdue.
Michigan St. (9) Non-conference wins over Texas, NC State, and BYU are impressive, as well as the 7-2 conference mark. The loss at Penn State is surprising, but the Spartans should be fine.

Probably In:
Purdue (46) A bit surprising, but with a 9-1 conference record, Purdue should make the tournament. The two 100+ losses (Wofford, Iowa State) are a concern, but the win over Luoisville helps balance them out.
Indiana (34) No notable non-conference wins, but with a 19-3 record, Indiana should be in, barring a surprising collapse. The next four games will be telling (@OSU, home games against Wisconsin, MSU and Purdue)
Ohio State (36) Ohio State get bonus points for an extremely tough schedule. OSU scored wins over Syracuse and Florida, but were beaten fairly handily by Texas A&M, Butler and UNC. The Buckeyes have done well in conference play and should finish well.

SEC (7, 4 bids)
Should Be In:
Arkansas (39) The Razorbacks have three decent non-conference wins (Baylor, VCU, Oral Roberts) and have fared well in conference play.

Better Be Careful:
Florida (44) No meaningful wins to speak of, aside from winning at home against Vanderbilt. The Gators do have an 18-5 record and no bad losses, so if they keep it up, no reason to think the Gators won't get in.
Vanderbilt (12) In the same boat as Florida, with a 2OT win over South Alabama the only notable win. Unlike Florida, Vanderbilt has slipped in conference play and only holds a 4-4 record. The next three games are tough, but winnable (@South Carolina, H Kentucky, H Florida).
Ole Miss (20) Much like Vanderbilt, Ole Miss started strong but has faded in SEC play. The wins over South Alabama and Clemson are good, but Ole Miss definitely needs to win a few more conference games before it considers itself a lock.

Outside Looking In:
Mississippi State (54) No notable non-conference wins or losses. The home win over rival Ole Miss was impressive, but Mississippi State will need to do more, given its 15-7 record.

Dark Horses:
Don't laugh, but Kentucky (98) and South Carolina (84) could both be primed to make an SEC run. Both have similarly poor records (11-9, 11-10) but other than Kentucky's early-season Gardner-Webb debacle, neither has a 100+ RPI loss, and Kentucky in particular has a 5-2 SEC record.

Big East (11, 8 Bids)
Definitely In:
Georgetown (8) Probably deserves consideration as a one seed at this point. Non-conference schedule was weak, but at this point, that doesn't matter. 9-1 in Big East contests, with the only loss coming at Pitt.
UConn (13) Consecutive wins over Indiana, Louisville, Pitt and Syracuse have cemented their spot in the tournament.

Probably In:
Notre Dame (30) Nice win over Kansas State, but suffered narrow defeats to Baylor and Georgia Tech. 7-2 conference record, although the blowout losses at Marquette and Georgetown are concerning. ND looks to be in good shape right now, though.
Marquette (29) Won at Wisconsin, with only non-conference loss against Duke. Lately, though, Marquette can't seem to win any conference road games and just lost at home to Louisville. With two upcoming roads games at Notre Dame and Seton Hall, Marquette would do well to win at least one of them.

Better Be Careful:
Louisville (24) Won at UNLV and Kentucky, plus they have a 7-3 conference record. Unfortunately, the weak part of the schedule is over, and Louisville only faces one more school not in a position to battle for an at-large berth.
Pittsburgh (17) Pitt is going to ride those wins over Duke and Georgetown all the way to the tournament, because outside of those two games, they haven't done anything too special. The home loss to Rutgers was perplexing, but as it stands right now, Pitt would be in.
West Virginia (42) West Virginia lacks a signature win and currently has seven losses and a mediocre 5-5 conference record.
Seton Hall (51) The home win over Louisville is its only top 50 win, and Seton Hall just got blown out at home. They don't have a terrible loss, but the numbers are starting to pile up.

Outside Looking In:
Syracuse (43) With only one quality win (St. Joe's) and a mediocre conference record, Syracuse could find itself in the NIT. The remaining schedule is killer, and I wouldn't be surprised if Syracuse loses five of its last seven.
Providence (71) They have a couple of decent wins (Arkansas, at UConn) but haven't fared well in conference play. They currently have a 4-6 record and have lost four of their last five since upsetting Connecticut.
Villanova (74) A mirror image of Providence. They have one great win (Pitt) and a couple of decent wins (George Mason, at Syracuse) but have a 3-6 conference record and are losers of five straight.

Big 12 (7, 5 bids)
Definitely In:
Kansas State (27) No bad losses, plus conference wins at Oklahoma and home wins over Texas A&M and Kansas. K-State sports a 6-1 conference record.
Texas (11) Texas has impressive wins over Tennessee, UCLA, and St. Mary’s, with no bad losses.

Probably In:
Baylor (31) They have a win over Notre Dame and the epic 5OT win over Texas A&M. They played tough at Washington State. It will be interesting to see how they do against Kansas this weekend.
Texas A&M (28) The Aggies have wins over Ohio State, Texas and Oklahoma and have looked impressive as of late. They had a three game slide in mid-January but seemed to have righted the ship.

Better Be Careful:
Oklahoma (38) Oklahoma boasts three impressive non-conference wins over Arkansas, Gonazaga and West Virginia, but have struggled a bit in conference play. Granted, the losses were to the top teams, but it would be nice to see them beat a top tier Big 12 team.

Outside Looking In:
Texas Tech (61) With an 11-9 record, Texas Tech will have a tough time making the tournament. They beat Texas A&M at home, but haven't done much else lately. They also have a couple of bad losses at Centenary (who?) and Oklahoma State.

Dark Horse:
Missouri (80) is sitting at a 13-10 record, but they have several upsets, including Maryland, Purdue, Texas and Kansas State. If they can beat Texas A&M this weekend, then you may start hearing more about Missouri.

Pac-10 (6, 4 bids)
Definitely In:
Stanford (18) Having won 14 of its last 16, Stanford has managed to ease the memory of its early loss at Siena. They don't have any big non-conference wins, but currently have an 8-2 conference record.

Probably In:
Arizona (9) No terrible losses, but they only have a 14-7 (5-4 conf) record. The Texas A&M and UNLV wins hold up nicely. A couple more quality conference wins and the Wildcats can punch their ticket.
USC (37) The Trojans have some impressive wins (@ UCLA and Oregon, Oklahoma) which make up for the embarrasing loss to Mercer (300)in their first game. They have won six of their last seven and look to be in good shape.

Better Be Careful:
Washington State (25) Washington State started off super hot (14-0) but has since cooled off and has lost their last three (all at home). They don't have any bad losses to go against wins against Baylor, Gonzaga, and USC away, but the schedule only gets tougher.

Outside Looking In:
Oregon (55) The Ducks have won against K State, Arizona away, and Stanford at home, but astoundingly have 3 100+ RPI losses (Nebraska, Oakland, Washington). To make matters worse, Oregon is sitting at a 4-6 conference record.
Cal (68) Once left for dead, Cal has won its last three and now has an even 5-5 conference record. No terrible losses and the win at Washington State make for a decent profile. The next stretch of five games will be very challenging (Oregon, @Arizona, @ASU, @Stanford, WSU).

ACC (7, 3 Bids)
Probably In:
Clemson (26) In decent shape with no terrible losses, Clemson call fall back on its wins over Miss St and Purdue. At UNC this weekend, and the schedule doesn't get any easier as the season winds down.

Better Be Careful:
Maryland (60) On very thin ice, with the loss to American. They have won 9 of their last 11, including away at UNC and home against VT.
NC State (40) Despite the high RPI, NC State has surprising losses to New Orleans and East Carolina. They do have recent wins over Wake and VT, but with two upcoming roads games at Maryland and BC, followed by home games against Clemson and UNC, North Carolina State may end up on the wrong side of the bubble.

Outside Looking In:
Virginia Tech (67) The Hokies lack a big win and have three 100+ RPI losses (Penn State, ODU, Richmond). With a 14-9 record, Virginia Tech will need to go on a serious run to warrant consideration.
Wake Forest (91) Sub-.500 ACC record (3-5), with the only good win at home against BYU. The blowout losses at Georgia and Boston College don't help. Wake only has one road win all season (Iowa) so don't expect the selection committee to do these guys any favors.
Miami (48) Since starting 11-0 (against weak competition), Miami has gone 3-7 and doesn't appear long for the bubble. Wins over VCU, Providence and Miss St are decent and they don't have any terrible losses, but the 2-6 ACC record is devastating.

Dark Horse:
Georgia Tech (69) A difficult non-conference schedule left Ga Tech at 6-5 heading into ACC play, and while they haven't lit it up in conference matchups, they are faring better than Wake and Miami and a solid run could definitely give the Yellow Jackets a boost. Upcoming back to back road games at UConn and Clemson will tell the tale.

Last Four In:
UNLV
Seton Hall
NC State
Massachusetts

Last Four Out:
Illinois State
Mississippi State
Syracuse
Oregon

With some very interesting matchups this weekend, bubble candidates are bound to see their fortunes rise and fall. Teams with mediocre conference records (Cal, Oklahoma) could shoot up the ladder with a few key wins, while teams that look good(Arkansas, Clemson) could really be hurt by a few more losses.

Eli Skywalker?

2008-02-04T10:50:00.000-05:00

All I can say is: WOW. In what could arguably have been the greatest Super Bowl of all time, the New York Giants knocked off the 18-0 New England Patriots 17-14 with an improbable fourth quarter comeback. Eli Manning makes it two MVP’s in row for the Manning clan, while relegating New England to also-ran status. The entire nation can take a collective deep breath, knowing that we will no longer be subjected to Boston’s rants of “All-Time Greatest” and “Welkaaaah!!!!”

The Eli Manning sack-escape and 30 yard throw, followed up with David Tyree’s miraculous catch-on-the-helmet will surely be re-played for years to come. When New York first went up 14-10, Tom Brady and the Patriots seemed to be energized into action and stormed down the field to re-take the lead. The quick drive covered 80 yards in just over five minutes, and New England only faced one third down, which happened to be the final play of the drive. With just over two minutes to go, Eli Manning returned the favor. Two third down conversions and one fourth down conversion kept the drive alive time and time again. I have to say I had all the confidence in the world that Eli would lead his team to victory. Kind of a weird sensation. But the Giants seemed like they KNEW they would win, even after just watching New England take the lead with a fairly effortless drive.

It should not be too surprising that the Giants ended up winning, even though they were double-digit underdogs. What is surprising is the manner in which they won. If anything, many people expected a high scoring game in which the Giants would need to be perfect to pull off the upset. Instead, the Giants relied on a stifling defense and just enough offense to win the game. Other than Wes Welker, the Giants kept New England’s offensive weapons in check. Brady appeared rattled and unsure for most of the game, missing several open receivers. Maroney was non-existent. Randy Moss was kept in check, aside from the touchdown pass, which was made much easier when the corner fell down. Even Welker never truly burned the Giants - his longest gain only went for 19 yards and he averaged under ten yards per reception. I felt that New England was somewhat fortunate to have been in the game as long as they were – at times they appeared to be completely dominated. An unfortunate bounce killed a second quarter NY red-zone drive. Another drive that approached the red zone fell apart after an Eli Manning fumble and “batting” penalty.

New England did have some perplexing play calls of their own. Normally going for the jugular whenever possible, NE decided to punt on a fourth and 2 in Giants territory (although the eventually were awarded a first down due to a Giant’s penalty on the punt) and then oddly decided to go for it on fourth and 13 when the could have attempted a 48 yard field goal. Those three points clearly would have come in handy at the end of the game. Who knows what the hooded master was thinking on those two calls? We’ll never know, but I don’t really care. Evil was defeated, and all of America was united in celebrating the Giants’ victory in perhaps one of the greatest Championship games ever.

Oh, and sorry Bill Simmons. Maybe you shouldn’t have written an article naming the 2007 Patriots as Boston’s best ever sports team…THREE WEEKS BEFORE THE SUPER BOWL!!!!!

Jackass…

Reporting the Latest - A Day Late

2008-01-31T13:43:00.000-05:00

In a shocking news bulletin not likely to get the attention it deserves, I feel it is my moral obligation to pass along the news: Watching the Super Bowl may cause an increased rate of heart attack, especially for emotionally invested fans of the two teams playing. According to the German study that took data from World Cup 2006, heart-related medical cases tripled on days that the German National team played.

Gee, who would have thought that increased stress levels coupled with wings, beer and pizza could raise the risk of heart trouble? Aside from avoiding alcohol and the aforementioned foods, the report suggest that fans should also try “not getting mad at the refs”. Thanks, doc.

Now what?

2008-01-24T15:19:00.000-05:00

So what do we do with our time now? The NFL season is over, save for the commercial spectacle that is the Super Bowl. MLB spring training is a couple of months away. Aside from recruiting, college football is on ice until August. The NHL was apparently disbanded due to a lack of interest several years ago.

Granted, the NBA regular season is in full swing, nearing its mid-way point. However, this is all just a prelude to the never-ending NBA playoffs, which last a staggering two months and stretch from April until late June. I salute anyone who can honestly say they regularly watch the NBA and then have the stamina to watch the entire post-season. The playoff teams are pretty much set at this point, give or take a couple of seven or eight seeds. Through roughly half of the regular season schedule, only six Eastern Conference teams carry a winning record, meaning the odds are decent that the East will produce two teams with losing records in the playoffs. The Western Conference playoff race should be a little more interesting, but let’s be real: The winner will come down to Dallas, Phoenix, San Antonio, and maybe LA. The East winner will be Boston, Detroit, or maybe Orlando. That’s it. So wake me up in April when the playoffs start.

College basketball appears to be the lone source of sports entertainment, but even now, conference play is just heating up. Things won’t get interesting for another month or so, when teams are jockeying for a spot in the Big Dance. I’m not sure why, but I love the Bubble Watch. Teams that have never played each other are sized up, judged, ranked and seeded, and then of course it all goes to crap once the games are actually played. ESPN currently runs a Bubble Watch segment, which I find to be a little preposterous at this point in the season. Still interesting, but can any team really be a lock at this point? Most teams have played three, maybe four conference games. I’ve never been a huge college basketball fan, but now that Tennessee is turning it on (aside from the Kentucky incident) I will start paying a little closer attention. It is hard to imagine someone from outside the North Carolina/Kansas/Duke/Memphis conglomerate winning the tournament, but with two months to go, plenty can change.

For the soccer fans among you, the Champions League is down to it last 16, with the first games set for mid-February. All the usual players are still involved, including Real Madrid, Barcelona, AC Milan, Chelsea, Manchester, and Arsenal. In La Liga action, Real Madrid holds a comfortable seven point lead over Barcelona, with just under half the schedule left to play. Real Madrid has performed spectacularly thus far, with a perfect home record and an impressive 7-2-2 away record. The Premiership race is much tighter, with Manchester United and Arsenal tied atop the standings, with Chelsea only four points behind in third place. United has also performed well in its home stadium: The Red Devils have allowed only three goals in twelve home games. As you can see, there is plenty of exciting European soccer action to follow, but unfortunately it’s never on television here, and reading box scores just doesn’t seem to have the same effect.

So, bottom line, my advice to you is that you find a new hobby or activity to occupy your time until the end of February, when sports will become relevant again. Bummed about that gut? Can’t afford bigger shirts? Try hitting the gym. Go run outside. Trust me - you’ll feel a much bigger sense of accomplishment than you do running in normal weather, especially if you’re running through a little bit of snow. Imagine Rocky IV. Try something new, like curling. Don’t knock it until you’ve tried it. I haven’t actually tried it myself, but I’ve heard good things, especially when alcohol is involved. If you can’t think of anything, you'll be forced to fall back onto the dregs of sports reporting. I imagine we’ll be subjected to many more stories about Roger Clemens’ ass, where Terrelle Pryor is visiting this week, and Chris Mortensen’s haircut’s Mock Draft Version 15. Don't say I didn't warn you...

Or....you can lose part of your soul along with the rest of the nation and submit to Fox's concoction The Moment of Truth, which is basically the most evil television show ever created.

Capitulation

2008-01-22T15:30:00.000-05:00

OK, let’s just get it over with and hand the Lombardi Trophy over to the Dark Side.

The Last Great Hope, Brett Favre, gun-slung his way out of the Super Bowl by throwing a pick on the second play in overtime. After watching Lawrence Tynes woefully shank the winning field goal as regulation expired, I knew that the Packers were destined to play the role of Good to New England’s Evil. When Green Bay won the OT coin toss, there could be no doubt: Brett Favre would march his team the requisite thirty yards for the game-winning field goal. All appeared lost as Favre’s weak out pass floated into the waiting arms of the enemy, but still hope sprung. The Packers defense held and forced a 47 yard field goal attempt. Coach Tom Coughlin had to forcibly remove Lawrence Tynes’ hands from their clutched position around his own neck before sending the Scotsman out for the game-winning try. Surely after missing two relative gimmies from 36 and 43 yards, Tynes would wilt before the Manifest Destiny awaiting Brett Favre and company. But, alas, it was not to be. After briefly appearing to hook right, the kick self-corrected in mid-air and sliced right between the middle of the goalposts.

New England is currently installed as a two touchdown favorite over the New York Giants. True, the Giants gave the Patriots their toughest challenge of the year (apologies to Indianapolis and Baltimore) but you got the feeling that the Giants played as well as they possibly could in that game. They converted on 60% of their third downs. Eli threw only one interception to four touchdown passes. The Giants’ defense forced New England into three first half field goals, when it seems like the Patriots are always scoring touchdowns. However, Bill Belichick started to figure out how to beat the Giants somewhere in the middle of the third quarter. After falling behind by 12 points midway through the third quarter, the Patriots scored 22 unanswered to take a 10 point lead. The Giants were able to score a last-minute touchdown, but after a failed onside kick, the game was over.

Eli has looked good this post-season. Good, not great. True, he hasn’t thrown an interception in three straight road games, but he has also surpassed 200 yards only once in that stretch. And don’t forget, this is the guy who tied for the lead league in interceptions. The sentiment that he’s due for a bad game doesn’t seem completely unreasonable. The Giants seemed to have decent success running the ball in their season finale against New England, although they didn’t go to the run game very much. Brandon Jacobs averaged 4.5 yards per carry, but on only 15 carries. I was surprised that the Giants didn’t try to power the ball down New England’s throat in the fourth quarter, and then they got into trouble with the passing game, as Manning was sacked and pressured into his few mistakes of the game. You can be sure that Bill Belichick will once again keep the heat on Manning by putting more people in the box, which will both pressure Manning and limit the rushing attack.

The bottom line is this: I have more belief that Belichick will craft a winning recipe than I do in Coughlin, given that both have seen the same game footage and know (somewhat) the other’s tendencies. Maybe fourteen points is a little high on the Vegas line, but the odds against New York have to be overwhelming at this point.

Define "enjoy"

2008-01-19T16:03:00.000-05:00

Thanks to CNN for this terrific piece, which details the adventures of a 16 year-old playboy wannabe.

You have to love the title "Boy, 16, enjoys champagne, hostesses" and the story highlights in the upper right, which include this gem: "Champagne and hostesses savored during illegal partying". What does savored mean exactly in this context?

Bully for you, anonymous 16 year old Japanese hooligan.

Breaking Down the Super Bowl Matchups

2008-01-18T16:33:00.000-05:00

Despite my best efforts, New England has advanced to the AFC Championship game. Apparently, defeating the Patriots in Madden 2008 with the Jacksonville Jaguar had no impact on the outcome of the actual game. Maybe I should have subbed in David Garrard, as the original rosters still had Leftwich as the team’s quarterback. Well, I can always try again this week with the Chargers.

With four remaining teams, the league has a limited amount of potential Super Bowl matchups. Luckily, most will have an interesting slant that should provide for plenty of SportsCenter fodder over the two week dead period before Super Bowl Kickoff. At the very least, we will have matchups featuring exciting teams, as opposed to recent thrillers such as Pittsburgh-Seattle (OK, any Super Bowl featuring Seattle would be a snooze-fest), Tampa-Oakland, and the all-time favorite, Baltimore-New York Giants, which featured the dymanic quarterback battle between Kerry Collins and Trent Dilfer.

Scenario 1: New England – Green Bay (55% probability)
Network execs are foaming at the mouth for this one. Not only would it feature two of the NFL’s most popular players (Brady and Favre) but it would be a re-match of Super Bowl XXXI. Of course, fans galore would tune in to A.) see if The Pats can achieve perfection, or B.) root like hell for the Packers to knock New England and their grating fans off of their collective perch. I personally would be in Camp B. Potential downside: All the talk about Favre’s retirement over the last two years? Quadruple it.

Scenario 2: New England – New York (30% probability)
The story is not quite as riveting for this game, but again, you would have New England striving for perfection against one of the teams that gave it the most trouble during the regular season. Appeal outside of the Northeast might be limited, but who cares about the rest of the country, anyway? Everything always seems to revolve around New York and Boston, so this would be a fitting addition. Ratings for the Pats-Giants season finale set all kinds of ratings records, so the game would not disappoint from a revenue perspective. The game would be close, although Belichick likely “obtained” some information from the previous game that could prove useful in a re-match.

Scenario 3: San Diego – Green Bay (10% probability)
Of all the scenarios, this is probably the least exciting. Sure, it would be great for Brett Favre to get another Super Bowl ring, but what else is there to talk about? The Chargers are a solid team, but are battling through injuries at key positions and simply haven’t been a very fun team to watch lately. We would have the opportunity to see what crazy, idiotic thing Rivers does next, and the wailing lamentations coming from the general direction of New England would be an added bonus.

Scenario 4: San Diego – New York (5% probability)
At face value, not an overly intriguing matchup, but you can bet that reporters will be asking Eli Manning and Phillip Rivers all week long about Draft Day 2004. Eli Manning looked like the whiny, immature crybaby back then, but he has since blossomed into a savvy quarterback. Rivers, on the other hand, seems to be going out of his way to look a giant douche. It certainly would be interesting to imagine how both teams' fortunes would have been had the Manning-Rivers swap not occurred. Both of these teams underachieved somewhat during the 2007 campaign: San Diego at 11-5 and NY at 10-6, with a combined three wins over teams with winning records. Of course, they certainly picked the right time to get hot, and have since combined for three tough playoff road wins, plus San Diego’s home win over Tennessee.

What seems to be the problem, ociffer?

2008-01-15T16:43:00.000-05:00

Adam 'Pacman' Jones just can't catch a break these days. This latest incident, in which it is "alleged" that he a struck a female patron in the face at a strip club, marks approximately the sixth time Pacman has been arrested since he was drafted. What a string of bad luck! Poor Pacman always seems to be in the wrong place at the wrong time, and people always seem to be running their faces into his fist (or bullets). And unfortunately for Pacman, this latest misunderstanding involved a female attorney, so I am sure that she will use some fancy legal-ese to make Pacman look like the bad guy here.

After having sat through a one-year suspension, Adam simply cannot afford another arrest on his rap sheet. Is there somezing he can do for Commissioner Goodell, or perhapz somezing he would like to do to Pacman, to avoid zis dilemma?

In More Civil War News - Sherman's March Continues

2008-01-14T11:53:00.000-05:00

The Evil Empire marches on. With Tom Brady looking like an unstoppable machine, the Patriots withstood a valiant effort from Jacksonville and advanced to the AFC Championship game. New England will square off against a supposedly depleted Chargers team, although I believe that the bruises sustained by Rivers and Tomlinson will be sufficiently healed by this weekend. Antonio Gates will also be one week healthier.

In NFC news, the Giants upset Nick Lachey and the Cowboys and will travel to Green Bay to face NFL Golden Boy Brett Farve and the Packers in the NFC Championship. Overlooked by most analysts, the NFC Champ could still provide more than a speed bump challenge for New England and its quest for immortality. We obviously have seen that the Giants match up well with New England. However, one team that no one seems to be talking about is Green Bay. With arguably the top cornerback tandem in the league (Al Harris and Charles Woodson), Green Bay should be able to provide tight coverage on Randy Moss. We’ve also seen that New England can be vulnerable to the run, and Ryan Grant is about as hot as any runner in the league right now. In fact, he led all rushers over the last eight games of the regular season and is coming off of a career 200+ yard performance. Brett Favre will keep his team in the game no matter what, although you have to be a little worried about the turnover potential.

Wow, and what a collapse by the Colts. Their defense had no answers for San Diego, even after Rivers and Tomlinson were forced to exit the game. The Colts had two chances to win the game with under three minutes to go, first giving it up on downs near San Diego’s goal line, and then again after having forced San Diego into a three-and-out. The Colts will surely look back on their missed opportunities, including three turnovers deep in San Diego territory, and wonder what might have been. If the Colts had managed a field goal on just one of those possessions, the final result might have been significantly different. The Harrison fumble was especially tough to swallow, since the Colts were looking unstoppable coming out of the gate and could have gone up 14-0. Unfortunately, this year it looks like Peyton Manning will have to settle for a title in the DSRL.

One positive note for everyone who isn't a Patriots fan – at least they didn’t cover the spread, so all those Bostonians lost a ton of money on the game.

Screwdriver? Yeah, just look for the huge toolbag. It's right behind the toolshed.

2008-01-12T14:56:00.000-05:00

In what could provide an endless supply of posts, let me dive into some of the reasons Bill Simmons is an annoying jackass who has become too popular for his own good.

I will confess, I have been reading The Sports Guy articles for several years now. In fact, his articles were the main reason I went to espn.com, well, you know, aside from checking scores and reading actual analysis. But all that aside, when did The Sports Guy become so huge? He's got his own podcasts (which are terrible), youtube video collections, hell, even his random idiot friends have podcasts just because they hang out with the guy.

I think part of the reason he got to be so popular was because everyday fans could relate to him, mainly because he suffered through terrible Celtics years and having the Red Sox fall short every year. The average fan can relate to having bad to mediocre teams, because most teams realistically have no shot at winning the championship in any given season. Now that the Pats are a mini-dynasty, the Celtics have the best record in the NBA and the Red Sox have won two World Series titles in the last four years, the average fan from Denver, Atlanta or Minnesota can't relate anymore. What used to come off as anguished bitterness now comes off as whining. Oh no, everyone is mad at the Patriots for cheating! Waa, JD Drew doesn't care about me as a fan. ~sniff~My wife is way better at gambling on sports than I am. Enough, man. Now he's an insufferable jackass who thinks Boston is the center of the universe.

Only Bill Simmons could justify his voting selection based on some ridiculous Bill Belichick metaphor. "They've been in the office before and made all their mistakes the first time around. Shades of Belichick learning from his Cleveland days. This time around, at least we know they'll take over the office with a game plan instead of limping through that first "What the hell am I doing?" year that seems to happen to every new president." And I'm not even going to get into the fact that he is considering voting for Hillary.

And what the hell is this comment? Finally, the Jaguars made an enormous mistake by allowing this to happen on their Web site. Haven't teams learned by now not to rile up the 2007 Pats? Lay the points and thank me later. Wow, so some website editor decided to point out the fact the Patriots cheated, and now the Patriots are going demolish the Jags in retribution? First of all, I think the asterisk is hilarious. But like I mentioned in my Spicer post, is this really something that the players are going to be talking about and get offended? Give me a break, Simmons, and get over yourself.

I can only hope that Jacksonville saves us from the possibility of having three major Boston sports teams win championships in the same season. In fact, I hope we have a Manning-Manning Super Bowl so that he can complain about how the Pats beat both of those teams in the regular season and still deserve to be mentioned as one of the greatest teams ever, all while he's watching Peyton and Eli share a hug with the Lombardi Trophy and Tom Brady is putting diapers on his illegitimate child.

Enough!

2008-01-09T10:59:00.000-05:00

Different year, same result. The Big Ten Champion waltzes through a cupcake schedule and gets invited to the big dance, only to be physically and emotionally pummeled by its SEC date. Real sad story. I will be honest – this year, I thought it might be different. I suppose I was expecting a repeat of the crappy Jennifer Lopez movie Enough. I’m assuming you haven’t seen it, so I will fill you in (It’s on TNT all the time, give me a break). J-Lo is physically abused and stalked by her jealous ex-husband so she gets desperate and hires a personal trainer, complete with the requisite Rocky-esque training montages. She of course quickly becomes a kickboxing expert and ambushes her overconfident and bullying ex-husband and gets her revenge. I suppose you could call it murder, but somehow that wouldn’t really fit in with the film’s message. Anyhow, I guess I thought after a year of being abused and then enduring endless criticism, Ohio State would have risen to the challenge and fought back a little harder against LSU.

Despite claims otherwise, this result is devastating for the Big Ten. Two consecutive BCS title game blowouts, of the same team no less, will cause voters to view the next Big Ten champ with skepticism. All along, I felt that voters were unfairly giving Ohio State a free pass to the title game simply because they had one loss while everyone else had two. Hawaii was undefeated, but they didn’t get a sniff of the championship game. Why, you ask? Of course, everyone pointed to their schedule and close wins over weak teams. But how was Ohio State any different? I’ve pointed out before that Ohio State clearly lacked a signature win and benefited greatly from playing a weak non-conference and Big Ten Schedule. In the end, both Hawaii and Ohio State were exposed as pretenders. Were it not for Michigan’s unexpected and inspired win over Florida, the Big Ten’s top four teams would have gone a woeful 0-4 in bowl competition.

One thing I will not claim is to know who really should have been in the title game. After Oklahoma’s impressive win over Missouri in the Big 12 Championship, I probably would have selected them and Georgia to play for title. Obviously, in retrospect Oklahoma would not have been the correct choice, either. USC has a lot of support right now, but if you look at their body of work, it doesn’t seem impressive enough to me to say definitively that they deserved to play for the title. Other than the big win over Arizona State, what did USC do in the regular season? And we saw against Texas that Arizona State was clearly a second-rate team. But this is the problem right here. No one can really say with certainty who the top two teams are. Teams rarely play significant games outside of conference, so the criteria for evaluating teams is very limited.

Georgia university president Michael Adams recently proposed an eight team playoff system, which suggests to me that some of the higher-ups are finally starting to realize that the current system clearly does not work. And even more encouraging to me is that someone of Adams influence (he is also chairman of the NCAA executive committee) admits that a plus-one system would not resolve the issue. Of course, it’s easy to say that Adams’ proposal is due in part to Georgia’s title snub, but I think that played a very small part, if any, in Adams’ decision to speak out. Michael Adams has presented a very rational and feasible plan, and I agree with almost everything he says. In fact, I had drafted a playoff proposal earlier this season and found that many of his points mirror my own. I will provide a more thorough breakdown of the proposal in the next week.

As far as this season is concerned, I think it’s safe to say that the SEC was by far the best conference. After going 7-2 in bowls, including a 4-1 performance from its top five teams and two BCS bowl wins, the SEC had the best record among BCS conferences. The Big 12 also took home also a BCS win, although it surprisingly came from Kansas, not Oklahoma, and finished a respectable 5-3 in bowl play. The top five Big 12 teams also went an impressive 4-1. The ACC and Big Ten proved to be losers this year, finishing at 2-6 and 3-5, respectively. Boston College and Wake Forest were the only two ACC teams to win bowl games, with BC’s win coming over a middling Michigan State squad. The Pac-10 and Big East performed decently, finishing 4-2 and 3-2, respectively, and were buoyed by impressive BCS wins from their conference champions.

Next year should be another competition season, as many of the top teams are not losing very much senior talent, such as Georgia, Ohio State, Oklahoma and Florida. Now we can turn our attention to recruiting and wondering why the Big Ten won't allow the rest of the conferences to create a playoff system.

Pulitzer Prize, here I come!

2008-01-07T15:31:00.000-05:00

This just in! Jacksonville defensive lineman Paul Spicer made inflammatory statements regarding the New England Patriots as recently as September of 2007! And he failed to take them back when given a chance to do so!! Can you believe the nerve of this guy?

According to ESPN.com, “If the undefeated Patriots need bulletin board material for their playoff game Saturday night against the Jaguars, they have it now.” Agreed! Of all the negative things said about New England over the last four months, the Patriots will surely use this nugget of gold to fire them up. For example, Spicer absurdly claimed, in reference to the Spygate scandal, "Do like the NCAA and kick them out of the playoffs or something." He then proceeded to blaspheme "This ain't news. I've heard it in the past. They finally got caught. The Patriots got caught. They're busted." When given the chance to recant his earlier outburst, Spicer retorted “I don't regret saying what I said. I'm a man of my word. I always speak my mind and that's what I felt at that time… If they got to bring up something said so long ago, let that be their motivational tool.” Well, you know what, Paul? You have just awakened the sleeping giant. I hope you’re happy. New England would not have been motivated to win this game at all, but thanks to you, they will have just the motivation they need to kick your Jaguar asses.

ESPN.com, we must bow at your feet. Your round-the-clock reporting has given us this great insight into the minds and psyches of NFL players and coaches everywhere. In fact, I am getting a mental image of Bill Belichick pulling out a newspaper from last September and whipping his team into frenzy. “Look at this Spicer joker! He thinks we shouldn’t be here. Well, golly, let’s show him that we do deserve to be here!”

Hopefully, NFL players will learn a lesson from Spicer's gaffe. Never state your opinions, much less make observations regarding recent controversial events, lest an opponent or some bored sportswriter bring them up a year later and make you look like the fool that you are.

All Good Things Must Come To End

2008-01-07T12:08:00.000-05:00

After four months of regular season games, 31 bowl games and untold controversy, all will finally be resolved in tonight’s BCS Championship game. Okay, so the controversy will probably continue on until next season, but at least the nation will be able to declare a champion. Number one ranked Ohio State faces off at 8:15 EST against LSU in what can be considered a home game for the Tigers.

LSU is the prohibitive favorite and is currently giving four points in most betting lines. Ohio State has not really been given much of a chance, and I think in the wake of the Florida-Michigan upset, that could prove dangerous. LSU has essentially been a shell of the team that dominated over the first month of the season, and has given up 24 or more points in six of last eight games. Without the 48-7 beating administered to Big East champs Virginia Tech (in week 1, by the way) I honestly do not believe the Tigers would be in the championship game. They certainly haven’t looked like a championship team since that first month. Granted, LSU did suffer a significant amount of injuries, but is it fair to assume that a healthy Glen Dorsey would have prevented the defense from giving up 40 or 50 points to Kentucky and Arkansas?

Ohio State is a little bit more enigmatic. The only one-loss BCS conference team in the country, Ohio State basically defaulted into the title game. They lack a signature win. Two of their three best wins came against teams fighting injuries at crucial positions: Wisconsin was without PJ Hill and Michigan’s Chad Henne and Mike Hart were banged up. Ohio State looked dominant in their win over Penn State, but that doesn’t really shed much light into figuring out Ohio State. Additionally, Ohio State loss to the best team it played, which was an Illinois team that was absolutely rocked by USC in the Rose Bowl. The Buckeyes seemed to have trouble containing Juice Williams, and while LSU’s quarterbacks aren’t as mobile as the Juice, they could present a similar threat.

After being dominated in last year’s title game, Ohio State is not in any way being given the benefit of the doubt, especially after losing Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Troy Smith and multiple top talent players to the NFL draft. No one is claiming that these Buckeye’s are better than last year’s team, but against LSU, they may not have to be.

The general public seems to overwhelmingly favor LSU (65% in a recent ESPN SportNation poll), with a good percentage of fans (35%) expecting a blowout. I expect LSU to win, but I am more inclined to believe the Vegas line, with a final score in the range of 24-21 or 24-17. Don’t forget how rusty the Buckeyes looked in last year’s National Championship. The long layoff definitely hurts teams, and though Jim Tressel will have surely reminded his team about last year, it is tough to get back into game-time mode after six weeks of layoff.

Enough chatter, though, the game will finally be decided as it should - on the field. Then we can start talking about next year and how USC would have, like, totally kicked the crap out of ______ if they had been given a chance.

Happy New Year! Except for you, Tim Tebow

2008-01-02T11:20:00.000-05:00

Wow. It seems like Florida was the one who got Tebow’d this time. The Gators and their Heisman winning QB were ambushed by Michigan in the Capital One Bowl, much to the surprise of, well, pretty much everyone. I didn’t have a chance to watch the game, but from the box score, it looks like the game was pretty intense. Despite a final score of 41-35, no one ever led by more than a touchdown. Florida actually had the lead with five minutes to go, but Michigan was able to come back and finish off the game. As a SEC fan, I hate to see another SEC team lose, especially to a Big Ten team (and especially one that lost to Appalachian State) but as a Tennessee fan, I guess I don’t mind too much to see the Gators go down.

Remember when Auburn beat Florida earlier this year? You must…They continually show the field goal that won it in “Pontiac’s Game-Changing Performances”. In any case, you had to love watching the Auburn kicker doing the Gator chomp as he ran celebrating off the field. I did anyway.

What the hell is wrong with Chris Spielman? I had to endure his terrible commentary while watching the Tennessee-Wisconsin Outback Bowl. I have never heard such biased announcing in a network broadcast. Okay, Chris, we get it, you went to Ohio State and you support Big Ten teams. If I was broadcasting the game, I probably would have been ripping on Wisconsin the whole time. But I don’t get paid the hundreds of thousands you do to be a “football analyst” or a “color commentator” so I expect some rational commentary when I watch a game on ESPN.

Every other play, it seemed, Chris Spielman would wax poetically about the great tradition of Wisconsin football. You wouldn’t have even realized another team was on the field. Tyler Donovan, man, he is such a competitor! Look at him bounce back from all these hits that he’s taking! Of course, no need to acknowledge the team that is actually delivering the hits. Let’s continue to praise the guy writhing on the ground every five plays! He even went on a rant about how the SEC’s speed is overrated, calling out a Tennessee linebacker (Dorian Davis) for not being able to catch Tyler Donovan on a QB scramble when Davis clearly did not have the angle. But no, that wasn’t enough. Spielman continued to discuss the issues, and even went back to last year’s BCS Championship and claimed that Ohio State was actually a faster team than Florida. If you lined those two teams and had them run 40’s, I guarantee you Ohio State would have come out on top. Ted Ginn aside, I mean seriously. What game was he watching? And who really cares anyway? I am trying to watch Tennessee and Wisconsin play here.

All that aside, I was glad to see Tennessee finish up its season on a strong note, something they haven’t done much lately. The defense looks much improved and I expect it be strong next year as well. Most of the starters will return, and the true freshman players (Eric Berry, Brent Vinson) in the secondary will be a little more battle tested next year. Tennessee will have to replace two departing senior defensive ends and star safety Jonathan Hefney, but should be pretty set at the other positions. Jerod Mayo could leave early, but I have a feeling he will stick around for another year. The offense will also return all starters with the notable exception of quarterback Erik Ainge and TE Chris Brown. The young receiving corps featuring all freshmen, sophomores and juniors will be much better next year. It was obvious in the first few games that Ainge was a little tentative with his receivers, having lost his top three receivers (Robert Meachem, Jayson Swain and Bret Smith) from the prior season. Jonathan Crompton (who came in touted in the same Elite 11 2004 class as Chase Daniel and Ryan Perriloux) will have to step up at quarterback next year, as he has played very little behind Erik Ainge.

Georgia and USC both made strong statements in their BCS blowout victories. These two teams were mentioned as the hottest teams in the country at the end of the season and clearly wanted to emphasize that point as they handily defeated their weaker opponents. Illinois was lucky to even be on the same field as USC, but I expected them to put up a little bit more of a fight. The Hawaii result was more predictable, as the Bulldawgs defensive front simply manhandled Hawaii’s offensive line, getting to Colt Brennan without having to blitz. Unfortunately this is the end of the road for these teams, and we’ll never know how good they could have been. I do feel justified in having ranked UGA number one at the end of my regular season poll, but we all know how much that means.

Congratulations to the Mountain West on clinching the Bowl Challenge Cup. With Florida’s loss, the SEC has officially been eliminated from contention, leaving the 4-1 MWC as winners. With a win over Ohio State, the SEC can finish 7-2, a half game behind the MWC. The Big 12 could go 6-2 if both Oklahoma and Kansas win, but no other conference will be much over .500. The Big Ten could actually finish at .500 if Ohio State knocks off LSU, which would be much better than most people expected.

For those of you who plan to watch the Orange and Fiesta Bowls tonight and tomorrow, enjoy. I doubt I will even watch more than a quarter combined of those two games. Maybe the Fiesta (Oklahoma-West Virgina) but the Kansas-Virginia Tech Orange Bowl does absolutely nothing for me. I will be waiting for the Ohio State-LSU showdown, to see who will win the right to play the winner of USC-Georgia. Oh wait…

College Football Bowl Update

2007-12-31T12:50:00.000-05:00

Now that we've gotten all the sub-par games out of the way, we can finally focus on some games worth watching. The Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl should be the best available game today. Although likely to be low scoring, plenty of talent will be on display.

A few interesting observations from last week:

The Mountain West is a surprising 4-0 in bowl competition so far and could go 5-0 if Air Force knocks off Cal. Even if Air Force loses, the MWC will still be the odds-on favorite to win the Bowl Challenge. The SEC is also 2-0 and will be favored in 5 of 7 remaining games.

Perhaps my memory is a little fuzzy but it seems like the bowls have always produced several surprising upsets. Some teams come in motivated while others show up disappointed. However, the only upset we've seen so far is East Carolina over Boise State, and perhaps Mississippi State over UCF. I don't see any upset possibilities today, with the exception of Air Force over Cal. Cal is currently a 4.5 point favorite, but at 6-6 and losers of six of their last seven, I don't know that Cal deserves to be favored over anyone. It should interesting to see how Florida State performs against Kentucky, given that about a third of their team has been suspended. The line has gone from Kentucky -3 to Kentucky -7 since the suspensions were announced.

Keep your eye on a couple of New Year's Day games. Michigan-Florida will be a high scoring affair, and I hope to see Tebow run roughshod all over Michigan, much like Dennis Dixon did. Everyone will be anxious to see how Hawaii plays against its first BCS opponent, Georgia. I expect Georgia's D to put the clamps on Colt Brennan, but I think the game will produce some fireworks.

Bonus: NFL observations

How the heck is Seattle 10-6? Oh yeah, they play Arizona, San Fransisco and St. Louis twice a year. In a sixteen game season, Seattle somehow managed to play only three teams with a winning record, going 1-2 in those games. I think Washington should be favored in that playoff game, although it looks like Seattle is an early four point favorite.

Congrats Tom Brady and the Pats. It will be that much sweeter for the rest of us when lose your first playoff game.

Tough luck, Browns. Nice finish, though. After starting 2-3, Cleveland was able to go 8-3 over its last eleven games and finished with a record equal to or better than four NFC playoff teams.

Sippin' on some Hater-ade

2007-12-27T19:34:00.000-05:00

Adrian Peterson? Yeah, he's a shoe-in for NFL Rookie of the Year, but come on...The press has been all over this guy like the second coming of Eric Dickerson. Even now, media types claim that "if Adrian Peterson hadn't missed those two games, he would have broken Eric Dickerson's rookie record (1808) for sure!" Considering that he currently has 1305 yards, it's a pretty big leap to assume that he would have gotten 500 yards in those two games plus this weekend's upcoming game. Sure, the guy's good, but he has only broken 100 yards five times this season. In fact, he barely has over 100 yards in his last three games combined, including a 14 carry, 3 yard performance at San Fran. Yep, that's a .2 rushing average. Adrian Peterson will be great, but let's not annoint him just yet.

Tom Brady? Sure, he's got three Super Bowl rings, dates the hottest chicks and has led his team to a 15-0 record (basically the NFL version of Derek Jeter) but aren't we giving him a little too much credit? He plays behind a fantastic offensive line and works within a great offensive scheme. Let's look at his last four games: Three out of four games with under a 55% completion percentage and a QB rating of less than 80. I think the Patriots will win and go 16-0, but I'm stating here that the Patriots will not make it to the Super Bowl.

Ohio State? Ha, just kidding, this one is way too easy.

Boston Celtics? Okay, they have basically one of the greatest trios to ever grace a basketball court, but I'm not 100% sold. Team USA used to think it was a good idea to throw together a bunch of superstars. It's easy when the team is winning, but a few losses and how will these egos handle it? The Celtics may have a 23-3 record, but are only 5-2 against teams with records of at least two games over .500, which surprisingly includes the Hawks. Throw in the OT loss to Cleveland and suddenly that record doesn't look so great. And what happens when Pierce or Ray Allen gets injured? These guys are getting older (all over 30) so they may not have as much gas when the end of the season rolls around.

Bowl Season: Let us feast!

2007-12-19T13:10:00.000-05:00

After a three week hiatus, college football swings into action once again, starting tomorrow with the highly anticipated San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl. Two renowned powerhouses in Navy and Utah will lay it on all the line for the Magic Poinsettia. Or whatever trophy the bowl committee gives out…

Okay, so pretty much no one will be watching that game except alums of those schools and people with nothing better to do on a Thursday night. And of course, gamblers. Money is really the reason people watch these crappy second (maybe third) tier games. There are an astonishing 32 bowls scheduled for this year. Aside from the Championship, all of these games fall within a two week window. Perhaps even more amazing is the fact these games have been scheduled in such a fashion that one could watch almost every single one of them in their entirety, with very few exceptions.

On December 28th, viewers will be forced to choose between watching the Texas Bowl (Houston v TCU) and the Emerald Bowl (Oregon State v Maryland), starting at 8:00 and 8:30 respectively. It should be noted the four teams participating in these two games have a combined nineteen losses, but hey, why not give these guys another opportunity to increase that total? December 28th, however, is a Friday, so I am guessing that ratings will not exactly go through the roof for either of these games, especially the Texas Bowl, which will only be shown on the NFL Network.

December 31 presents the next viewing challenge for college football fans. The starts are staggered so that viewers will at least be able to watch at least a half of most of the games. The Armed Forces Bowl kicks off at 12:30 (Air Force v Cal), so we can all watch at least until halftime. At 2:00, viewers will have to decide between watching the second half of that game and switching to one of two other games: Roady’s Humanitarian Bowl (Fresno State v Georgia Tech) and the Sun Bowl (South Florida v Oregon). The Music City Bowl (Kentucky v Florida State) kicks off at 4:00, the Insight Bowl (Oklahoma State v Indiana) kicks off at 6:30, and the final game of the night, the Peach Bowl (Clemson v Auburn) kicks off at 7:30.

January 1 is the final viewing decision day. The Cotton Bowl (Missouri v Arkansas) kicks off at 11:30. Viewers will once again be able to watch the first half before having to decide between the Capital One Bowl (Michigan v Florida) and the Gator Bowl (Virginia v Texas Tech).

So basically, you, as a college football fan, will be able to watch every game in its entirety except one on December 28, three on December 31, and 1 ½ on January 1. Assuming that each game lasts for three and a half hours, you could theoretically spend roughly 93 hours watching football over the next two week, or close to four days. I recommend that you grab a few cases and several dozen wings before embarking upon this journey. Enjoy!

Never mind that I only have a true (read: non-monetary) interest in about ten of the games…

One of the main interests that fans have in the bowl games is watching how teams from their conference perform. For example, as a Tennessee fan I generally root against Alabama and Florida. However, put Florida against a Big Ten team and I become a Gator fan. I am tired of listening to Big Ten shenanigans about how their conference is superior to the SEC, so I am hoping that this year will go a long way towards proving that. The Big Ten and SEC usually only play a handful of bowl games against each other. This year there are three such matchups, and the SEC is favored in all three. LSU and Florida are clear favorites over Ohio State and Michigan, and Tennessee is a slight favorite over Wisconsin.

In looking at the current Vegas lines for the bowl games, it could end up being a very disappointing bowl season for the Big Ten. Out of eight bowl participants, only two are favored: Purdue over Central Michigan and Penn State over Texas A&M. Not surprisingly, the SEC is favored in six of its nine contests. One conference to look out for in this year’s Bowl Challenge Cup, given to the conference with the highest winning percentage in at least three bowl games, is the Mountain West. MWC teams are currently favored in 4 out of 5 games. Other conferences looking good are the ACC (5/8), Big 12 (5/8), and Big East (3/5). It is probably safe to write off the MAC, WAC and Conference USA, who are only favored in a combined three out of ten games.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I still need to fill out my bowl picks...

Dream Deferred

2007-12-11T14:11:00.000-05:00

This season, the NFL has finally achieved its dream: Parity. Sixteen of the NFL’s 32 teams are within three games of .500. With three games left in the season, only eight teams have officially been eliminated from the playoffs (although it’s pretty much over for 5-8 Cincinnati) and, you guessed it, the remaining eight teams have essentially locked up playoff spots.

Of last year’s twelve playoff teams, six will likely not be making a return trip to the postseason, including Chicago, the NFC’s Super Bowl representative. Two 4-12 finishers from last year (Tampa and Cleveland) are currently projected to make the playoff field. Three of last year’s AFC playoff teams (Kansas City, Baltimore and New York) have already been eliminated from the playoff hunt and stand at no better than 4-9.

Only a total of nine teams have failed to make the post-season in the last three years, and only four (Arizona, Buffalo, Detroit, Houston) have failed to make the playoffs this century. For comparison’s sake, Major League Baseball is a little more dynastic, as twelve teams have not qualified for the post-season over the last three years. Of those twelve, nine have not made the playoffs this century. Granted, there are fewer available post-season slots, but the difference is noticeable.

However, given the increasing level of parity, how impressive does that make the New England Patriots look? And perhaps more (un)impressively, how about the Miami Dolphins? These teams clearly did not get the memo on NFL parity. While 0-13 Miami currently holds the fourth longest NFL playoff drought, the Patriots are one Super Bowl win away from creating a dynasty. New England won three Super Bowls over the 2001-2004 seasons and are looking to add a fourth this year. Only three of New England’s wins this year have come by less than seventeen points, and they have been held to under 30 points only twice. Meanwhile, only four New England opponents have put up more than 20 points.

On the flip side, given the number of average (mediocre) teams in this era, it is hard to believe that a team could actually go winless. It is interesting to note that, of the Dolphins thirteen losses, six have come by exactly three points. You would think that one of those games would go the Dolphins’ way sooner or later. Who knows, in Bizarro World, the Dolphins could be 6-7 and still fighting for that last playoff spot. Of course, of the Dolphins seven other losses, six were arguably blowouts. So maybe they really are that bad, and were lucky to even get close in their three-point losses.

Things don’t get any easier for Miami. This weekend, the Dolphins will face an angry Baltimore team riding a seven game losing streak of their own. Miami is currently listed as three point home underdogs. I personally hope to see Miami lose this game so next week they can face a (hold for daunting, spooky music) undefeated New England team. Talk about two worlds colliding.

I don’t have the facts verified, but I’m fairly confident that a team has never gone undefeated this long at the same time another team has gone winless. I’m even more confident that two such teams have never faced each other. I can only imagine what the Vegas line will be on this game. 30 points? No matter what happens, this will make for killer television, and I’d much rather watch a 14-0 team run over an 0-14 team than watch two 5-7 teams cling to faint playoff hopes.

Hopefully, I don’t jinx things and ruin the possibility of such a historic event. Call me old-fashioned, but I think it’s good to have great teams for an extended period of time. If teams can’t compete, too bad for them. For reasons that may never be clear, Arizona and Detroit continue to be the laughingstock of the NFL. It is on them (and only them) to fix their teams instead of hoping to get lucky with high draft picks and poaching players from better but more salary-cap strapped teams.

How satisfying is it to follow a team for years, and then once it finally seems that they are on the rise, the mirage disappears and they fall back down to earth? Then the three year cycle starts over. Take the Bears, for example. Stifling defense and a power running attack propelled the Bears back to the Super Bowl. The Bears are back! But wait, this year the Bears are but one of a dozen middling teams with no real identity. I think the fans deserve more than this Communist, lottery-like system. Congratulations…Tampa Bay! This year you get to go to the Super Bowl! We’ll see you again in three years…

In trying to satisfy everyone, the only thing that can be sure is that no one will end up satisfied. Give me the Patriots and their dominance. Give me the Colts and Peyton Manning running wild every year. Give me the Dolphins and their 0-13 record. Give me the Lions and Cardinals sucking every year. But don’t give me a lottery league.

Final Regular Season NCAA Power Rankings

2007-12-06T18:16:00.000-05:00

With the regular college football season at a close, we have a few weeks to settle before the bowls swing into action. Without question, most of the discussion will center around the BCS, who made it, who didn't, and who will take home the national championship.

I like LSU to win it all, but even if they do win, critics will have plenty of ammunition to argue the validity of that championship. In preliminary Vegas lines, LSU is favored by 5.5 over the Buckeyes. In a voter-decided online sixteen team playoff at SI.com, it looks like Ohio State, Oklahoma, LSU and Florida are likely to advance to the semi-finals. Ohio State and LSU hold paper-thin leads over West Virginia and USC, respectively, which tells me that that public does not see Ohio State and LSU as the clear cut top two teams.

Of course, the games are decided on the field, not paper, so we'll have to hold our judgment until early January. Then let the speculation start up once again...

Here are my final rankings. Keep in mind that I am ranking teams based on which teams I feel are the best, not who has the best record. Current form holds more weight than the beginning of the season, strength of schedule must be considered, and of course some subjectivity is required to separate teams that seem equal on paper.

1.) Georgia (10-2)
Key Wins: Florida, Auburn, Kentucky
Loss(es): South Carolina, Tennessee
I had Georgia ranked third last week, and with the Missouri and WVU losses I bumped them up to number one. Unlike the media, I don't consider it a great sin that Georgia did not win its conference. The Bulldogs are likely disappointed that they did not get a chance to play for the National Championship, but a Sugar Bowl trip is a nice consolation prize.
2.) Oklahoma (11-2)
Key Wins: Texas, Missouri (twice)
Loss(es): Colorado, Texas Tech
I gave the Sooners a big bump based on their dominating performance against Missouri. When they want to, Oklahoma can beat anyone. West Virginia should prove to be a good challenge for this team.
3.) LSU (11-2)
Key Wins: Virginia Tech, Florida, Tennessee
Loss(es): Kentucky, Arkansas
LSU scored a less-than-convincing win over Tennessee and magically jumped from number 7 in the BCS to number 2. I can't argue against the Tigers' resume, but I'm not convinced they are the number two team in the country. Having a healthy Matt Flynn will certainly help.
4.) Florida (9-3)
Key Wins: Tennessee, Kentucky, Florida State
Loss(es): Auburn, LSU, Georgia
You may be asking yourselves, why is a three-loss team ranked ahead of Ohio State? Well, I consider Florida to be the better team. Two of Florida's losses came to teams listed in my top three. Florida lost to Auburn on a last second field goal, lost to LSU after they made 6/6 fourth down conversions, and did not have a healthy Tebow against Georgia. Looking at recent form, Florida is on fire, having scored forty or more in its last four games, including wins over South Carolina and Florida State.
5.) Ohio State (11-1)
Key Wins: Penn State, Wisconsin, Michigan
Loss(es): Illinois
If Ohio State had to play LSU and Georgia instead of Minnesota and Washington, would they have finished 11-1? Fair or not, I haven't seen enough from Ohio State to believe that they deserve the number one ranking that's been handed to them. Incidentally, Steve Spurrier also ranked Ohio State fifth in his final poll.
6.) Virginia Tech (11-2)
Key Wins: Clemson, Virginia, Boston College
Loss(es): LSU, Boston College
Virginia Tech was impressive in avenging its earlier loss to Boston College. A date with Kansas awaits. Interesting to note that Virginia Tech actually finished first in the BCS computer rankings, but the voters looked at the LSU blowout and never gave Virginia Tech a chance.
7.) USC (10-2)
Key Wins: Oregon St, Cal, Arizona State
Loss(es): Stanford, Oregon
USC has been talked about as one the "hottest" teams right now, but I don't see it. Yes, they were impressive in beating Arizona State, but the week before that they only scraped by Cal (who just lost to Stanford) and the week after the ASU game they struggled a bit before finally putting away UCLA.
8.) Missouri (11-2)
Key Wins: Illinois, Texas Tech, Kansas
Loss(es): Oklahoma (twice)
The Tigers were absolutely shredded by Oklahoma and went from number 1 and playing for the national title to playing in the Cotton Bowl in a few short hours.
9.) WVU (10-2)
Key Wins: Rutgers, Cincinnati, Connecticut
Loss(es): South Florida, Pitt
West Virginia's loss was even more inexplicable, losing to 4-7 Pitt. At home, no less. Sure, Pat White was injured, but that can't be an excuse in a game like this, against an opponent like Pitt.
10.) Hawaii (12-0)
Key Wins: Boise State
Loss(es): None
Hawaii finished its perfect season with an impressive comeback against Washington. Unfortunately, beating a 4-8 Pac-10 team did not provide Hawaii the opportunity to make a statement win. Otherwise, voters very well may have put Hawaii into the title game.
11.) Kansas (11-1)
Key Wins: None
Loss(es): Missouri
Kansas did not play, but I felt compelled to move them down after the team that gave Kansas its only loss was so thoroughly dominated. Kansas doesn't have a much more difficult schedule than Hawaii, so they should be glad they are going to BCS game instead of a perhaps more deserving Missouri team.
12.) Illinois (9-3)
Key Wins: Penn State, Wisconsin, Ohio State
Loss(es): Missouri, Iowa, Michigan
A lucky beneficiary of the antiquated Rose Bowl good ole boys club, Illinois is headed to Pasadena to face USC.
13.) ASU (10-2)
Key Wins: Oregon St, Cal, UCLA
Loss(es): Oregon, USC
Arizona State will face Texas in the Holiday Bowl in what should be one of the more intriguing non-BCS bowls.
14.) Boston College (10-3)
Key Wins: Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Clemson
Loss(es): Florida State, Maryland, Virginia Tech
Unfortunately for Boston College, they were unable to defeat Virginia Tech a second time and lost out on a big BCS payday. Boston College falls all the way to the ChampsSports Bowl, where they face a perennially underachieving Michigan State squad.
15.) Clemson (9-3)
Key Wins: Florida State, Wake Forest, South Carolina
Loss(es): Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, BC
Auburn awaits in the Peach Bowl. Clemson fans will wonder what could have been after another season falls just short of expectations.
16.) Tennessee (9-4)
Key Wins: Georgia, Arkansas, Kentucky
Loss(es): Cal, Florida, Alabama, LSU
Tennessee certainly had its chances against LSU, but two late Erik Ainge interceptions, one for a touchdown, doomed the Vols. Tennessee will make a second consecutive trip to the Outback Bowl.
17.) Texas (9-3)
Key Wins: Texas Tech
Loss(es): Kansas State, Oklahoma, Texas A&M
Texas will have its hands full with Arizona State in the Holiday Bowl.
18.) Cincinnati (9-3)
Key Wins: Oregon St, South Florida, UConn
Loss(es): Louisville, Pitt, West Virginia
This team probably deserved better than the papajohns.com bowl, but if they hang on to head coach Brian Kelly for a few more years, this program will only continue to improve.
19.) South Florida (9-3)
Key Wins: Auburn, West Virginia
Loss(es): Rutgers, Connecticut, Cincinnati
This program didn't even exist ten years, and now they will line up against one of the top Pac-10 teams in the Sun Bowl. Even better, they will probably be favored.
20.) Virginia (9-3)
Key Wins: UConn, Wake Forest
Loss(es): Wyoming, NC State, Virginia Tech
Virginia certainly overachieved this year, exceeding all expectations. The Cavaliers will face off against Texas Tech in the Gator Bowl. Sorry Notre Dame, you won't be seen back in the Gator Bowl for quite a few years.
21.) Auburn (8-4)
Key Wins: Florida, Arkansas
Loss(es): South Florida, Miss St, LSU, Georgia
As mentioned, Auburn will face Clemson in the Peach Bowl. The stadium should be filled with orange, and at least everyone will be cheering for the Tigers.
22.) Arkansas (8-4)
Key Wins: Mississippi State, LSU
Loss(es): Alabama, Kentucky, Auburn, Tennessee
Darren McFadden may have one last chance to put on a Razorbacks jersey, and the whole team should be excited to face off against Missouri in the Cotton Bowl. Arkansas was able to knock the number one team in the country, so they should no problems with an ex-number one, right?
23.) BYU (10-2)
Key Wins: Arizona, Air Force
Loss(es): UCLA, Tulsa
The voters seem to like BYU, and there aren't exactly alot of other quality teams out there. BYU will get a re-match against UCLA in the Las Vegas Bowl.
24.) Texas Tech (8-4)
Key Wins: Texas A&M, Oklahoma
Loss(es): OK State, Missouri, Colorado, Texas
We will see if the Oklahoma win was fluke when the Red Raiders take the field against Virginia in the Gator Bowl.
25.) UCF (10-3)
Key Wins: None
Loss(es): Texas, East Carolina, South Florida
Central Florida finished with ten wins and captured the Conference USA title. Plus, they have a guy (Kevin Smith) who has run for over 2400 yards.

Travis Henry 1, NFL 0

2007-12-05T11:43:00.000-05:00

Congratulations, Travis Henry. You managed to beat the drug test rap, without even having to resort to the Whizzinator.

Apparently the league was not very convinced by Henry’s defense. League spokesman Greg Aiello on the case: “The defense of hair samples and lie detector tests was irrelevant and unconvincing.” So it’s not particularly clear how Henry avoided the potential year-long suspension. Perhaps the league felt that Mr. Henry’s increasingly large family would be better off with an employed patriarch.

Oh, and in case you’re curious as to why I have a Tennessee Titans Travis Henry photo and not a more recent Broncos shot, well it’s the most recent photo I could find on “The Official Travis Henry Website”. The site has a 2007 copyright date and has recent Travis Henry news, but apparently they didn’t feel it was important to update the simple fact that he had changed teams.

Post BCS Thoughts

2007-12-03T11:08:00.000-05:00

What a fitting end to this college football season. #1 Missouri losing to Oklahoma was not a huge surprise, considering that Oklahoma was favored and had beaten the Tigers handily earlier this season, but absolutely no one could have anticipated that West Virginia would fall. Even you Buckeye and LSU fans can’t claim that you really thought this would happen.

The fallout of yet another round of upsets leaves us with an Ohio State-LSU title game and a host of disappointed teams. Georgia is likely feeling the most slighted. The Bulldogs entered the weekend ranked fourth in the BCS, watched two of the three teams ahead of them lose, and yet somehow moved down one position in the BCS and ended up fifth.

I am not saying that Georgia deserves to be in the title game in place of LSU or Ohio State (although they would certainly have a good argument) but if voters felt that LSU and/or Oklahoma was that much better than Georgia, shouldn’t they have ranked those teams higher to begin with? You can’t honestly tell me that the shaky 21-14 win over Tennessee was enough to vault LSU from 7th to 2nd in the BCS. Politicking played a huge role in that jump, and it makes me a little sick. I can certainly understand how critics of the SEC would point to the preferential treatment the conference seems to garner.

I also find it a little curious that Ohio State received a virtual pass to the Championship game while voters were tripping over themselves trying to find someone other than Georgia to play for the title. An ESPN poll (I know, not exactly the most scientific) showed that over 50% of the country does not believe that Ohio State is one of the top two teams in the country, and yet their credentials were not questioned at all when it came time to vote.

The truth is that no one knows who the two best teams are in the country right now. As I mentioned prior to this weekend’s games, it is much easier to narrow down the top eight or so teams than it is to select the top two, especially when nearly all have the same record and have suffered similarly unexpected losses over the course of the season. I still believe that the eight teams I listed would still make a compelling playoff, although their order might have shifted a bit over the last week.

Obviously, Ohio State, LSU, Georgia, Oklahoma, USC and Virginia Tech have the strongest arguments. Hawaii also gets a pass for its unblemished record. The eighth position would be open for considerable debate (West Virginia, Missouri and Kansas all ended their season with losses, which could open it up to Arizona State or Florida) but I believe it would be much better to have a debate for the eighth spot of a playoff than the second participant in a title game.

Of course, we’re all probably wasting our time asking for a playoff when the BCS bigwigs are content to roll with the way things are. We can only hope that the BCS fallout will produce some signficant changes in the near future, because no matter who wins this year's Championship, the result will be questioned for years to come.

Initiating Self-Destruct Sequence in 5...4...3...2...

2007-11-29T09:11:00.000-05:00

Let the annual playoff talk begin. This year’s BCS is headed towards perhaps its worst result since its inception. To be fair, this really isn’t the fault of the BCS. No team has stepped up to the plate and truly laid claim to a rightful spot in the BCS Championship. Unlike in previous years, we have no dominant teams (see: USC/Texas 2005) that clearly deserve to be number one or number two, head and shoulders over the competition.

In reality, we have one undefeated team, four teams with one loss, and nine two-loss teams. You could make compelling arguments for a good percentage of those teams, as well as arguments against each of them. The BCS can only truly work when the chips fall perfectly into place, ie two teams that clearly deserve to play for title actually do play for the title. When you have three or more deserving teams, one will get the shaft, like undefeated Auburn in 2004. No non-playoff system will ever solve that problem.

Sometimes we forget that the BCS really is an improvement over the old system, when airtight bowl allegiances did not allow conference champions from the Pac-10 and Big Ten to play bowl games against other conference foes, the SEC Champion always played in the Sugar Bowl, and so on and so forth. This often led to split national titles and produced bowl games that left fans wondering ‘what if…’ However, I sincerely doubt that you could find a single person who believes that the BCS is perfect, or that it is even the best available solution.

I will admit I have waffled a bit on the playoff debate. I used to be 100% for a playoff system, but this year I started thinking otherwise. The regular season really is special in college football. Not to say that it isn’t in other sports, but regular season college football seems to carry a bit of added mystique. Once you lose, you are essentially eliminated from contention. As this season has progressed, we have seen that come to light, as team after team (South Florida, Boston College, Kansas) has been a contender and then just as suddenly fallen. You could argue that the current system works as a de facto playoff.

The one problem with this is the assumption that eventually a team will step up and prove it deserves to be number one. My biggest complaint is that Ohio State, who lost its second-to-last game, is a better-than-50% bet to play in this year’s National Championship, considering that number one Missouri is a three point ‘dog to Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship. If the regular season truly worked as de facto playoff system, there is no way Ohio State would still be alive. True, this problem has popped up before in the BCS, with 2003 Oklahoma losing in its conference championship and still making the BCS Championship (and summarily getting blown out) and 2001 Nebraska losing its season finale and still playing for the national title. But that does not make it right.

Let’s break down the top title contenders:

Undefeated:
Hawaii – Currently ranked 12th in the BCS, Hawaii has zero shot at making the BCS Championship. Their schedule has been knocked, and deservedly so. Of course, Hawaii had originally been scheduled to play Michigan, but the Wolverines backed out at the last minute. Michigan’s new opponent: Appalachian State. Nice work, Big Ten. The truth is, though, that none of the big boys want to play Hawaii. The bottom line is that Hawaii is the only team in the nation to not lose a game. How can you argue against that?

One-loss teams:
Missouri – Currently number one in the BCS, Missouri needs only to knock off Oklahoma to reach the title game. How much sense does it make, though, when the number one team in the nation is the underdog on a neutral field? Basically, Missouri is number one because no one else is. They do have two victories over top 15 teams in Illinois and Kansas, but were convincingly defeated in their prior game against Oklahoma.
West Virginia – West Virginia has looked solid this year, but their schedule is not quite as tough as some of the other contenders. All of West Virginia’s wins except two (Louisville, Cincinnati) have come by at least 17 points. A bit of a question mark, but they would certainly present a tough matchup for anyone in the field right now.
Kansas – What to make of Kansas? Their biggest win is Texas A&M, which isn’t saying much, but they did manage to make it through the season with only one loss, to rival Missouri. Kansas showed heart in coming back against Missouri but ultimately fell short. That loss should eliminate them from title contention, but it would be interesting to see how they stack up against the other contenders.
Ohio State – Winners of the Big Ten, almost by default, Ohio State finished an unexpected 11-1. The Buckeyes did not garner a significant victory all year, but the closest they came was either the win over struggling Michigan or PJ Hill-less Wisconsin. Like West Virginia, Ohio State dominated against a weaker schedule, winning 9 of 11 games by 16 points or more. However, the late loss to Illinois (Ohio State’s toughest opponent) is hard to ignore.

Two-loss teams:
Georgia – Arguably the hottest teams in college football right now, the Bulldogs hold victories over two top 25 BCS teams (Florida, Auburn) and have been a team on a mission since the demolition at Neyland Stadium. Of course, you can’t ignore that loss, or the early loss to South Carolina, but the ‘Dawgs have the best argument of any two-loss team. Also, they haven’t lost since October 6th, which few teams can claim, including Missouri, Kansas and Ohio State.
LSU – LSU had two shots at being number one and blew it both times. The Tigers probably peaked after blowing out Virginia Tech and appear to have been holding on for dear life ever since. To their credit, both losses have come against respectable opponents in overtime, and like Georgia, LSU has beaten both Florida and Auburn. Winning the SEC could garner LSU some additional votes.
Oklahoma – I’m willing to give Oklahoma a mulligan for the Texas Tech loss, since they lost their star QB in that game, but the Colorado loss is another story. The Sooners have looked less than impressive in several of their victories as well. On the flip side, Oklahoma has beaten number one Missouri and will have the chance to do it again. Win that game (and the Big 12), and Oklahoma deserves to be mentioned as a top contender.
Virginia Tech – Unless they beat Boston College, forget about them. They were blown out by LSU and lost to BC. They do have a couple of impressive wins in Clemson and Virginia, but the ACC Championship game will determine whether they are a contender or an also-ran.
Boston College – See above. Boston College’s losses (Florida State, Maryland) are much worse than Virginia Tech’s, but then again they beat Virginia Tech head-to-head. BC probably does not deserve to play for the title, but could cause problems for someone in a playoff format.
USC – Certainly interesting, given USC’s recent play. The win over Arizona State was impressive, but can we really allow a team who lost to Stanford to play for the national title? Let’s see how the Trojans fare against UCLA, because I’m not 100% sure they will win that game.
Arizona State – No, thanks. They lost to the top two contenders in their conference and their best win is Oregon State, so no chance of competing for the national title.
BYU – A good story, but not a serious contender.
Boise State – Eliminated when they lost to Hawaii. No strong wins of note.

And we haven’t even mentioned Florida (three losses), who could probably beat at least half the teams in the list. With all that said, I think you can seriously consider about eight teams for the National Championship: Hawaii, West Virginia, Ohio State, Missouri/Oklahoma winner, Georgia, USC, Virginia Tech/Boston College winner, and LSU (if they beat Tennessee convincingly). And maybe Kansas, depending on how this weekend goes for the other teams involved. Except for the unknown Hawaii factor, I think any team in this list would have a chance.

Would it really be so difficult to arrange an eight team playoff? The rest of the field could still go to their same crappy Outback bowls. The Rose, Sugar, Fiesta and Orange Bowls could host the first round of the playoffs, and only three additional games would be required. Or two, if you consider that we already have a separate BCS Championship bowl game. I think that the March Madness selection process should be the model for selecting the eight participants, considering such factors as computer rankings, schedule strength, and recent form. Leaving the selection up to just a computer rankings system (like the BCS) would never work, we need to have human judgment evaluate who is and is not deserving.

There has been some talk of going to a “plus one system” but I don’t trust the BCS to handle that scenario. The general proposal would be to have the top four teams play two games and then have the two winners face off for the National Championship. But who decides the top four? Straight BCS rankings? Teams like Hawaii would still be left out. With parity increasing across college football, I’m not sure that having essentially a four team playoff is drastic enough. Plus, teams like Ohio State would continue to benefit as they sit idly (and rise) while other teams risk defeat in conference title games.

Based on current BCS rankings and Vegas’ projected outcomes for this weekend, the field would look something like this:

1.) West Virginia vs 8.) Hawaii
2.) Ohio State vs 7.) USC
3.) Georgia vs 6.) Oklahoma
4.) Virginia Tech vs 5.) LSU

Those would be some interesting matchups. Food for thought…

1.) Missouri (11-1)
Key Wins: Illinois, Texas Tech, Kansas
Loss(es): Oklahoma
Welcome to the top, Missouri. Don’t get comfortable, though. Missouri is the underdog headed into the Big 12 Championship against Oklahoma. Missouri clinches a spot in the BCS Championship game with a win.
2.) WVU (10-1)
Key Wins: Rutgers, Cincinnati, Connecticut
Loss(es): South Florida
All that stands between West Virginia and the BCS Championship Game is pesky Pitt. I doubt that West Virginia will have any trouble getting amped for this rivalry game.
3.) Georgia (10-2)
Key Wins: Florida, Auburn, Kentucky
Loss(es): South Carolina, Tennessee
On the outside looking in for both the SEC and the National Championship, Georgia should at least claim a spot in the BCS as an at-large. A minor miracle would be required to vault the ‘Dawgs into the BCS title game.
4.) LSU (10-2)
Key Wins: Virginia Tech, Florida, Auburn
Loss(es): Kentucky, Arkansas
After suffering another overtime loss, LSU will miss out on the National Championship. Perhaps Les Miles can now focus on more important things, like the Michigan job, or, you know, the SEC Championship game.
5.) Kansas (11-1)
Key Wins: None
Loss(es): Missouri
Kansas fought hard but came up short against bitter rival Missouri. The Jayhawks should still be rewarded with a BCS bid, but won’t challenge for the national title. Given Kansas’ history, fans should be plenty satisfied with this outcome.
6.) Florida (9-3)
Key Wins: Tennessee, Kentucky, Florida State
Loss(es): Auburn, LSU, Georgia
Tim Tebow gave another Heisman performance and Florida walked all over Florida State. The polls aren’t showing the Gators the same kind of love that I am, but I still feel the Gators are deserving of this rank.
7.) Ohio State (11-1)
Key Wins: Penn State, Wisconsin, Michigan
Loss(es): Illinois
Ohio State was idle last week, and will be this weekend as well, but don’t be surprised to see the Buckeyes move into the BCS Championship should Missouri or WVU lose. Oklahoma and Pitt flags will be flying all across Ohio.
8.) Oklahoma (10-2)
Key Wins: Texas, Missouri
Loss(es): Colorado, Texas Tech
Win and Oklahoma is likely headed to the Fiesta Bowl. Lose, and they could end up in the Holiday Bowl. Oh, and a win knocks Missouri out of the National Championship game.
9.) Virginia Tech (10-2)
Key Wins: Clemson, Florida State, Virginia
Loss(es): LSU, Boston College
Virginia Tech will have a chance to avenge its earlier loss to Boston College, with the ACC Championship and BCS bowl berth hanging in the balance.
10.) USC (8-2)
Key Wins: Oregon St, Cal, Arizona State
Loss(es): Stanford, Oregon
Last year, UCLA knocked off USC. Can the Bruins do it again? Under a very unlikely set of circumstances, UCLA could get to the Rose Bowl, starting with a win over USC. I don’t think that is going to happen, but we’ve seen crazier things…
11.) Boston College (10-2)
Key Wins: Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Clemson
Loss(es): Florida State, Maryland
As mentioned with Virginia Tech, this ACC Championship game is for all the marbles. Matt Ryan has been impressing Heisman voters once again, so who knows? Maybe he could vault himself back into contention with a thorough beating of Virginia Tech.
12.) Tennessee (9-3)
Key Wins: Georgia, Arkansas, Kentucky
Loss(es): Cal, Florida, Alabama
In one of the most thrilling games in recent memory, Tennessee just barely survived against Kentucky, keeping the nation’s longest streak against a single opponent intact. I counted at least three times that I had internally resigned myself to the fact that Tennessee would lose, only to see the Vols miraculously stay alive. Tennessee will need a little more luck if they hope to knock off LSU and win the SEC.
13.) Illinois (9-3)
Key Wins: Penn State, Wisconsin, Ohio State
Loss(es): Missouri, Iowa, Michigan
With their regular season finished, the Illini are only waiting to find out what bowl they will go to.
14.) Hawaii (11-0)
Key Wins: Boise State
Loss(es): None
With the win over Boise State, Hawaii has proven that it has a solid team and will likely get to showcase its talent against the best the SEC has to offer in the Sugar Bowl. Quite frankly, I’m a little nervous about their crazy passing schemes.
15.) Clemson (9-3)
Key Wins: Florida State, Wake Forest, South Carolina
Loss(es): Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, BC
Clemson knocked off South Carolina to help ease the pain of the come-from-ahead loss to Boston College. The season will still be viewed with some level of disappointment as another Clemson season ends without a title of any kind.
16.) ASU (9-2)
Key Wins: Oregon St, Cal, UCLA
Loss(es): Oregon, USC
Arizona State was thoroughly outclassed by USC and unfortunately ends the season on a bit of a down note with losses to their two chief competitors, Oregon and USC. ASU still has a shot at the Pac-10 crown if UCLA knocks off USC.
17.) Texas (9-3)
Key Wins: Texas Tech
Loss(es): Kansas State, Oklahoma, Texas A&M
Finally! It was only a matter of time until Texas showed their true colors. What does it say about the Big 12 that it took this long for someone to knock them off? Granted, they didn’t face Missouri or Kansas, but Texas somehow managed to scrape together a nine win season without beating anyone of consequence.
18.) Oregon (8-3)
Key Wins: Michigan, USC, Arizona State
Loss(es): Cal, Arizona, UCLA
You have to feel for this team. They have been completely shell-shocked since Dennis Dixon went down and were blanked by a mediocre UCLA squad. Perhaps the Ducks were a tad overrated with Dixon, but his impact is crystal clear. Without him, Oregon is barely a top 25 team.
19.) Cincinnati (9-3)
Key Wins: Oregon St, South Florida, UConn
Loss(es): Louisville, Pitt, West Virginia
Cincinnati’s regular season is complete. Having just accepted a bid to the prestigious papajohns.com bowl, the Bearcats will not have to deal with the stress of waiting to learn which bowl they will make..
20.) South Florida (9-3)
Key Wins: Auburn, West Virginia
Loss(es): Rutgers, Connecticut, Cincinnati
South Florida ended its season on a positive note and will play in this year’s Sun Bowl, earning their first ever bowl appearance. South Florida will face off against a Pac-10 opponent, perhaps Oregon.
21.) Virginia (9-3)
Key Wins: UConn, Wake Forest
Loss(es): Wyoming, NC State, Virginia Tech
Virginia played decently in a respectable loss to Virginia Tech, which indicates that maybe Virginia was more good than lucky this season, despite being on the lucky end of so many close games.
22.) Auburn (8-4)
Key Wins: Florida, Arkansas
Loss(es): South Florida, Miss St, LSU, Georgia
Auburn improved its bowl position with a hard-fought victory over Alabama in the annual Iron Bowl. Auburn will never be confused with an offensive juggernaut, but they get the job done with defense and tough running.
23.) Arkansas (8-4)
Key Wins: Mississippi State, LSU
Loss(es): Alabama, Kentucky, Auburn, Tennessee
Behind the amazing Mcfadden, Arkansas trampled all over LSU’s vaunted defense and ruined the SEC’s hope of taking home a National Championship. The Heisman race could likely come down to Tim Tebow and Darren McFadden. For all the great players that have come out of the SEC, the conference hasn’t won a Heisman since Danny Wuerffel in 1996.
24.) Texas Tech (8-4)
Key Wins: Texas A&M, Oklahoma
Loss(es): OK State, Missouri, Colorado, Texas
They knocked off Oklahoma two weeks ago, but are too inconsistent to be a national threat. They sure are a fun team to watch, though. Freshman receiver Michael Crabtree will be a force over the next two or three years.
25.) BYU (9-2)
Key Wins: Arizona, Air Force
Loss(es): UCLA, Tulsa
I guess.

Others given consideration:
Wake Forest
Wisconsin
Oregon State

God Save the Queen...and English Football

2007-11-27T13:10:00.000-05:00

Sorry, England. Mighty David Beckham has struck out.

As surely many of you are unaware, this past weekend England met its ultimate failure – failure to qualify for the European 2008 championship. England went into this past Wednesday’s home match against Croatia needing only a draw to punch their ticket to Austria/Switzerland 2008. Somewhere along the way, Croatia decided to show up and make a mess of things.

England fell behind quickly, facing a 2-0 deficit after only 14 minutes of play. With the help of a questionable penalty call, England battled back to a 2-2 tie and appeared sure to advance. Less than ten minutes later, however, Mladen Petric put Croatia up for good with a 77th minute strike, his seventh goal in seven qualifying appearances.

In truth, England’s goose was cooked long before this match even got underway. Numerous missed opportunities will haunt the English side for the next four years, including a miserable 0-0 home draw against weak sister Macedonia and an earlier loss to Croatia. Perhaps the worst result was the 2-1 away loss to Russia that came less than a month after England had soundly defeated the Russians 3-0 at Wembley Stadium. In the end, England finished tied for third (with noted soccer powerhouse Israel) and finished a mere one point behind Russia and qualification.

As much as English football fans do not want to admit it, England can no longer be considered a soccer power. Sure, they invented the game, but what has England done in the last forty years? Since capturing their only World Cup title in 1966 (on English soil), England has advanced past the quarterfinals only once, reaching the semifinals in 1990. England followed up on that semifinal appearance by flaming out in 1994 World Cup qualifying and missed the tournament completely. England’s record in the European Championship is even worse, with no titles and only two semifinal appearances since 1960, most recently in 1996.

For comparison’s sake, the Netherlands (who have never actually won a World Cup) have managed to reach the World cup semi-finals three times and have two runner-up finishes, and have five European Championship semi-final appearances and one Championship over the same time period. Rival Germany has eight World Cup semifinals appearances and two titles, as well as six European Championship semi-finals appearances and three championships since 1966. France has reached four World Cup semi-finals, including one title, and has twice won the European Championship. Italy has won the World Cup twice and the European Championship once, as well as numerous semi-final and final appearances in both.

In addition to being out-performed by Europe’s traditional powers, English supporters have had to watch the likes of Denmark and Greece win recent European Championships. Portugal, Russia, and the Czech Republic have all advanced further in the last twenty years than England ever has. In fact, England is rated as only the 13th most successful European side in the history of that tournament, which can only be considered mediocre at best.

Perhaps the world is starting to become aware of England’s shortcomings: England did not receive one of the nine top seeds in last week's Europe World Cup Qualifying draw, and as fortune would have it, England was drawn into the same group as Croatia. Perhaps some redemption is in order, but, more likely, England supporters should start bracing for another round of heartache.

Say hello to my little friend

2007-11-22T09:56:00.000-05:00

I'll admit it - I haven't really dedicated much time solely to the SEC. So on this holiest of football days - Thanksgiving - I will give the masses what they desire. And by masses, I mean the handful of my friends who bothers to read this.

The SEC has had quite an interesting year. At times, seven teams were ranked in the top 25. Currently, five are ranked, with two more receiving votes. LSU certainly appears to be in the drivers seat with respect to the BCS Championship. Tim Tebow is the leading candidate for the Heisman Trophy. And once again, the SEC will send two teams to the BCS games. This level of dominance is not often seen. In fact, this dominance evokes memories of a once-prominent businessman who reigned over this country - Tony Montana. Yes, the legendary Cuban drug dealer immortalized in the masterful film Scarface.

I believe that the SEC will reign longer than Tony Montana (and hopefully avoid a shotgun blast to the back) but the level of power is eerily similar. In fact, you can take individual members of the SEC and relate them to characters in the film:

Sosa (LSU) - Sosa is the undisputed leader of the drug world. His every command is carried out with swift and ruthless execution. His power is shown when he orders Tony Montana's assassination, which is carried out by an army of at least 50 people. LSU has been equally oppressive, with four top 5 Coaches Poll finishes in the last five years, including the 2003 National Championship and this year's number one ranking. LSU looks to add to its legend with another SEC title and BCS title this year.

Tony Montana (Florida) - Tony is ruthless, ambitious and feared by his rivals. He quickly rises to power and immediately becomes the center of attention in whatever situation he enters. However, he is ultimately undone by his personal flaws, greed and a love of cocaina. Florida shares these traits, especially Tim Tebow. Florida's reliance on Tim Tebow cost them the Georgia game, when Tebow's bruised shoulder prevented him from running the ball and Georgia was able to key in on the rest of the offense. Also, Tim Tebow carries himself on the field with a reckless abandon that Tony Montana would appreciate. Urban Meyer also represents the "ambitious new guy" side of Tony Montana, winning a National Championship in only his second season at Florida.

Manny (Georgia) - Manny is the second fiddle to Tony's lead. Everyone loves Manny, but no one fears him. Manny is not willing to take that last step to becoming the number one guy. Georgia always seems to fall into this role. As a Tennessee fan, I have no hatred for Georgia (like I do for Florida and Alabama) and I don't get the sense that many other fans fear and hate Georgia. The 'Dawgs will probably finish this season with at least 10 wins, but yet will fall just short of being a nationally acclaimed team.

Frank Lopez (Tennessee) - Frank is in charge of the Miami market, at least until the ambitious Tony knocks him off his perch. Frank is used to doing things the old way and doesn't want to ruffle any feathers and take big risks. Tennessee, and especially Phil Fulmer, fits this description. Fulmer has taken some heat over the last couple of years for his traditional offense and seems to be in danger of losing his job to a flashy newcomer. It has become clear that some changes are needed if Tennessee is to make a run for the spot at the top.

Elvira (South Carolina/Kentucky) - Elvira (played by Michelle Phfieffer) is the beautiful girl that Tony must have no matter what. She is classy, desirable, and witty. By the end of the film, however, Elvira is nothing more than a coked-out blonde with no life skills. The parallel is fitting for these two SEC East teams, South Carolina and Kentucky. Both were once ranked in the top ten in the same week, before they both lost in the same weekend (10/20) to begin a sad trend down towards irrelevance. Including those first two losses, these teams have combined for a total of seven losses since reaching their top ten rankings.

Omar Suarez (Alabama) - Frank's second-in-command, Omar Suarez is accompanied by Tony Montana on a business trip to Peru, where Sosa accuses Omar of being a "stoolie" and has him thrown out of an airborne helicopter. Alabama has always been a traditional power, however once the NCAA cracked down on Alabama for various recruiting and booster violations and placed the team on probation (allegedly on a tip from Tennessee and Phil Fulmer), Alabama has not been the same. Losing numerous scholarships and dealing with a postseason ban was devasting for Alabama's recruiting. The Tide has not participated in meaningful bowl game since the 1999 season Orange Bowl, when they won the SEC.

Gina Montana (Arkansas) - Gina is the beautiful sister of whom Tony is so protective. In fact, Tony is so protective that he murders his best friend Manny when he found out that Manny had been sleeping with Gina. Of course, what he didn't know was that the two had just gotten married. Darren McFadden (more than Arkansas) is the Gina of the SEC. McFadden continues to get Heisman support and any SEC fan will howl if his name is not mentioned in the top five. While Gina was riddled with bullets in the film's finale, McFadden's Heisman hopes have already been riddled by his team's multiple losses and some subpar offensive performances.

Rebenga (Vandy) - A minor character, Rebenga is the Communist leader who Tony assassinates for a green card at the beginning of the film. I don't know much else about him, but I can assume if Rebenga was a Communist government leader that he was fairly well-educated. Vanderbilt is likely fielding the most intelligent team in the SEC, but it doesn't prevent them from being eviscerated on a regular basis by their more brutish counterparts.

The Diaz Brothers (Miss St/Ole Miss) - The Diaz brothers are Tony and Frank's rivals in the early goings of the film. They never make an appearance but are spoken about on occasion. Mississippi State has played in only one New Year's Days bowl since 1940 (a 38-11 loss in the 1998 Cotton Bowl), while rival Ole Miss has been only moderately more successful. These two teams rarely factor into any SEC discussion, unless they happen to be playing a team competing for the SEC or National Championship.

Mel Bernstein (Auburn) - Mel is the crooked Narcotics detective who is regularly paid off by Tony and Frank, until Tony decides he has had enough and kills Mel. Mel always has a smug look on his face and a feeling of invulnerabilty, given his badge status. Obviously, it doesn't help him in the end. Auburn is in the same position, as they are not quite as good or powerful as they think they are. Outside of their 2004 13-0 season in which they did not have a chance to compete for the National Championship, Auburn does not have any BCS bowl appearances. You can bet that Auburn fans will be screaming to the grave about the injustice of 2004.