¡Viva España!

There is really no other way to say it. Spain completely and utterly deserved to win this tournament. I couldn’t have been any more impressed with them. The 1-0 scoreline was mildly deceiving, as Spain had Germany on the heels for the majority of the contest. The Spaniard tallied 14 shots to Germany’s 4, and could have had several more had Iniesta not wasted so many possessions inside the box.

Overall, the tournament was one of the more enjoyable I can remember. With nearly all of the teams fielding high-quality squads, we didn’t have to suffer through any cakewalks (except when Spain played Russia). Nearly every team came onto the pitch with an attacking mindset, and that mentality yielded many goals and few scoreless draws. In fact, I can only recall two scoreless draws: Romania-France and the Spain-Italy quarterfinal.

Thanks to Turkey, we had late-game drama in every round of the tournament. A few pre-tournament favorites fell a little earlier than expected (Portugal, Netherlands) but in the end, quality was rewarded. Unlike the World Cup, the European Championship has a bit more history with unheralded champions (Greece ’04, Denmark ’92) but this year proved to be the welcome exception.

World Cup 2010 expectations for the Spaniards will now be sky-high, and many are already projecting an Argentina-Spain final. After what I have seen, I could hardly disagree. But success in these tournaments often requires a little bit of luck in addition to skill, and Spain should savor this championship before moving onto dreams of World Cup 2010.

Who am I?

Who am I? Only three teams have more home wins than I do. I have the sixth highest scoring margin in the league. I have allowed the fifth-fewest runs. I am only two runs shy of top 10 ranking in runs scored. I have lost only 11 games by more than three runs, which is the same number as the Cardinals, who are 11 games over .500, and only two more than the AL-leading Red Sox (9). However, I am currently one game under .500 and trail the division leader by 5 ½ games.

How is this possible, you might ask? Well, for one, I inexplicably lead the league in road losses. Yes, I even have more road losses than the Royals and Rockies. Defying all logical explanation, I have a 4-17 record in one-run games. By the way, the mathematical odds of that happening are less than one half of a percent. I lost my first eight one-run games. I have a 1-7 record in extra innings games.

If you took the time to check ESPN or simply know the one team I give enough of a crap about to look up all these useless facts, then you know the answer is …the Atlanta Braves.

I honestly have no idea what the heck is going on here. According to ESPN’s “Expected Wins” stat, the Braves should be 11 games over .500, not 1 game under. The only other team with that big of a differential is the LA Angels, who are somehow 13 games over .500 and lead the AL West with an essentially even scoring margin. Maybe by writing this, some of the Angels luck will transfer to the Braves…

Final Eight - Euro 2008

Down to the final eight and the real fun begins. All the pretenders (including you, France) have been weeded out, which leaves us with four exceptional quarterfinals. Personally, I didn’t do too badly with my picks, selecting six of the eight quarterfinalists - although I only correctly placed two of them.

Two of the games really stand out: Portugal-Germany and Spain-Italy. Spain never seems to catch a break in these tournaments, and a quarterfinal date with Italy is no exception. However, you can bet that Spain hasn’t forgotten their bitter World Cup ’94 quarterfinal loss to Italy, Most people did not expect Germany and Portugal to face off until the semi-final round, so the winner of this game could very well end up in the final.

Croatia-Turkey features two teams playing their best soccer right now. Croatia was one of three team to win all three of its group stage games, while Turkey is coming off its amazing comeback against the Czech Republic that got them into the next round. And of course, that comeback came on the heels of its first comeback win against the Swiss, giving Turkey two more comeback victories than rest of the field (that’s 2-0 for those of you counting). Netherlands-Russia is probably the least intriguing of the quarterfinals. Russia must be playing with more confidence after winning it final two games, but the 4-1 shellacking by Spain does not bode well for them. Oh, and neither does the complete and utter dominant form that the Dutch have displayed.

Portugal, Croatia, Spain and Netherlands have to be considered the favorites to advance, but it would not be a total shock (except for Netherlands) if all of them fail to win. A Portugal vs. Spain/Netherlands final looks to be most likely, but I still think it is too early to count out the wily Italians. Germany is also fielding a very experienced side, and relative unknowns Croatia and Turkey could always surprise someone.

Euro 2008 - Last Group Games

With all teams having completed two of their three group stage games, one final round of games remains. The group winners have all been decided (Portugal, Croatia, Netherlands, Spain) but the second place finishers are anything but decided. Only Switzerland and Greece have been officially eliminated, so every other team still has a fighting chance - even Austria!

Group A:
As I mentioned before, the Czech Republic and Turkey are dead even in the standing. Given their tie-breaker edge, the Czech Republic advances with a win or a draw. Turkey must win to advance, so clearly they are at a disadvantage. I would give the Czech Republic the edge, but certainly it would not be a shocker for Turkey to advance. Portugal wins the group regardless of the result of their game against the already eliminated Swiss.

Group B:
Surprisingly, Germany are still fighting to advance, courtesy of a shock loss to Croatia. However, with a game against hapless Austria, the Germans need only a draw to advance. Austria will advance if they defeat the Germans, unless Poland defeats Croatia by more goals than Austria's margin. Poland cannot advance unless Austria wins, but they need to win by a larger margin than Austria. The odds of Germany actually losing to Austria have to be minuscule at best, so the discussion is probably moot. A Germany-Portugal quarterfinal looks to be all but certain at this point, with Croatia facing the winner of Turkey/Czech Republic.

Group C:
By virtue of their two impressive wins, the Dutch have claimed first place. I suspect they may not play at full strength against Romania, who need a win or a France-Italy draw to advance. Should Romania lose or draw, the winner of France-Italy would advance. My heart wants Romania to advance, but I have a feeling that the Italians will sneak into the quarterfinals.

Group D:
A little more straightforward than Groups B and C, Spain has already clinched the group while Greece have been eliminated. Sweden and Russia fight for second place. Due to Sweden's superior goal differential, a draw would allow them to advance. Russia must win to advance. I would certainly give Sweden a much better chance of pulling it off, which would give them a date with the Netherlands. Spain has the misfortune of a possible quarterfinal against Romania, Italy, or France.

Euro 2008 Tie-breaker Rules

As a result of Turkey’s thrilling (so I’m told) victory over Switzerland and Portugal’s 3-1 win over the Czech Republic, Portugal is officially into the next round while Switzerland is the first team to be eliminated. That leaves the Czech Republic and Turkey tied with one win and one loss each. To further complicate matters, both teams have the same goal differential, goals scored, and goals allowed. So, if these two teams tie when they face each other on the 15th, what would happen?

According to the official tie-breaking procedures, Czech Republic would advance as a result of some obscure calculation based on recent team performance. Here are the tie-breakers, in order:

(a) Greater number of points obtained in the matches between the teams in question.
(b) Goal difference resulting from the matches between the teams in question (if more than two teams finish equal).
(c) Greater number of goals scored in the matches between the teams in question (if more than two teams finish equal).
(d) Goal difference in all the group matches.
(e) Greater number of goals scored in all the group matches.
(f) Coefficient of points from the last two qualifying competitions for the final rounds of the 2006 World Cup and Euro 2008 (points gained and divided by the number of matches played).
(g) Fair Play conduct of the teams (final tournament).
(h) A drawing of lots by the Organising Committee.

So, if we assume that the two teams tie, that would throw out tie-breakers a thru e. I have no idea how the coefficient of points (f) is calculated, but the Czech Republic is ranked fourth while Turkey is 13. Here is the full list of rankings.

1. 2.417 - Holland
2. 2.409 - Croatia
3. 2.364 - Italy
4. 2.333 - Czech Republic
5. 2.273 - Sweden
6. 2.250 - Romania
6. 2.250 - Germany
8. 2.192 - Portugal
9. 2.182 - Spain
10. 2.167 - Greece
10. 2.167 - Poland
12. 2.091 - France
13. 1.958 - Russia
13. 1.958 - Turkey
15. 1.800 - Switzerland
16. 1.500 - Austria

So, there you go. Turkey will have to go all out for the win, while the Czechs can play a little more conservatively. Don't ask me how Sweden is ranked fifth while Spain is ranked ninth, but them's the rules.

In today’s games, look for Croatia to try to steal a point from Germany. Any point there, or even a 1-0 loss (Poland lost to Germany 2-0) would give the Croatians the edge in advancing to the next round. Don’t expect the world to tune in for Austria-Poland. Austria will be motivated to earn a point in what could be its last winnable match, but I wouldn’t bet on it. A draw (or loss) would effectively end Poland’s chance to advance. I am personally much more excited for Friday’s games, which will feature Italy-Romania and Netherlands-France. Both Italy and France will be desperate to score points after disappointing in their first games.

Euro 2008 - Late Preview

Euro 2008 is officially underway, with four games already completed. And surprisingly, no scoreless draws so far! Or even any draws! Never mind, France and Romania just tied 0-0. Anyway, Portugal and Germany both scored impressive wins, while the Czech Republic and Croatia managed to scrape by against the home sides Austria and Switzerland. Let’s be honest - neither one of those teams would have made it through the qualifying stage. They would be extremely fortunate to advance to the next round.

Unfortunately for those of us earning an honest living, the majority of the games will be during our working hours. ESPN360 does offer all the games online (free of charge!) but your company may or may not block this site. Mine does.

Here is my quick breakdown of the groups. Granted, some of the games have already been played, but better late than never I guess.

Group A – Portugal is the clear favorite in this group. After disappointing throughout much of the ‘90’s, Portugal has achieved a high level of success over the last few tournaments, including their appearance in the Euro 2004 final and World Cup 2006 semi-final. Despite his high propensity for diving, Cristiano Ronaldo is regarded as one of the top players in the world. They did not play exceptionally well in qualifying and finished second to Poland in their group. Turkey, Czech Republic and Switzerland are not exactly a murderer’s row, and should not provide much of a challenge to Portugal. Turkey is likely the next most talented team, but they have already suffered a 2-0 loss to Portugal in the opening round of games. The Czech Republic is the not the same team that advanced to the Euro 2004 semi-final, as age and injury have slowed them down. However, they did finish ahead of tourney favorite Germany in qualifying, so perhaps it is too early to count them out.

Group B – Germany looked typically efficient in dispatching Poland, and should continue their run against European minnows Croatia and Austria. I feel that Germany may be a tad overrated, but given the draw, Germany has a fair shot to advance all the way to the final. The Poland-Croatia match should determine the group’s second place finisher. At the moment, I would give Croatia the edge, given their more impressive qualifying run, which included a first place finish over Russia and England (which ultimately knocked Beckham and Co. out of the tournament) and a virtually perfect finish. Their only loss was after they had already mathematically qualified for the tournament. Austria will be lucky to even score a goal.

Group C – Fairly named the Group of Death, France, Italy and the Netherlands all feel they have a legitimate chance to win the tournament. Romania has the unfortunate luck to be the fourth seed in this death-trap. In any other group they might be favored to finish second, but will likely end up at the bottom here. Italy is riding its World Cup 2006 win, but a few key injuries leave the Azzurri a little more exposed than they would like to be. In an odd coincidence, all four of these teams came from only two qualifying groups. France and Italy were both in the same qualifying group, while Romania and the Netherlands also came from the same group. Romania actually finished ahead of the Dutch, but I find it hard to believe they will do much damage in this tournament. But no finish would surprise me, especially given that Romania just managed a draw with France.

Group D – Spain is absolutely the clear favorite to win the group, but given their history of underachievement, I wouldn’t bet on it. Greece is somehow ranked eighth in the FIFA world rankings (presumably because of their Euro 2004 win) but has not done a lot since then. They rolled through qualifying, but they had the good fortune of being placed in the easiest qualifying group. Sweden and Russia both finished second in their respective qualifying groups and wouldn’t appear to be formidable opponents. Russia (along with Croatia) prevented England from reaching the final stage of tournament, and may have a slight edge over opponents Sweden and Greece.

Quarterfinals:
Q1 – Portugal vs. Croatia – It doesn’t really matter who advances from Group B. Portugal should take this game.
Q2 – Germany vs. Czech Republic – In a good old-fashioned slugfest, Germany figures to advance from this round and head to a semi-final matchup against Portugal.
Q3 – Italy vs. Sweden – A little tougher to predict than the previous two games, this game has numerous possibilities. Whoever wins Group C should advance to the semi-final.
Q4 – Spain vs. Netherlands – Spain is nearly a lock, but France or Romania (or Italy) could easily replace the Netherlands as Spain’s opponent. I would love to see Spain finally win a tournament, but I’ve been burned too many times. The top two finishers in Group C will have a re-match to advance to the final.

Semi-finals:
S1 – Portugal vs. Germany – Portugal is displaying excellent form and will simply run past the Germans. If Germany plays tight defense (which they normally do) they could frustrate the Portuguese and perhaps score a quick counter-attack goal or win in shootouts. But they skill of the Portuguese midfield should open up chances.
S2 – Italy vs. Netherlands – Italy has the skill, but they will need to display some offensive flair. Italian soccer has a tendency to be unwatchable, despite all their talent.

Championship:
Portugal vs. Italy – This game will be decided by the team with the better flopping technique. The Italians have been doing it for years, but with young Cristiano Ronaldo the Portuguese are now a flopping force to be reckoned with. In this case, youth is served and Portugal walks away holding the trophy.

Editor's Note: I'm well aware that Italy is in the process of getting their ass kicked by the Netherlands, but I didn't really feel like going back and changing anything